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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground vehicle lane-keeping assistance system via differential flatness output feedback control and algebraic derivative estimation

Vehicle run-off-road is one of the most frequent and fatal traffic accidents in the United States. Various lane-keeping assistance (LKA) systems have been developed in the last decade to help drivers stay on the road. Most of them are built upon linear driver–vehicle–road (DVR) models and treat road curvature as a disturbance. Albeit effective, their control performance would degrade if road curvature varies rapidly. Here, this paper proposes a novel nonlinear DVR model by integrating a driver steering model into vehicle–road kinematics, which explicitly considers road curvature. Particularly, this nonlinear DVR system has been proven to be differentially flat, and a flatness-based LKA system is designed. Additionally, Model-Free Control is introduced to compensate for system modeling errors. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations and diver-in-the-loop experiments validate the proposed control framework and demonstrate the performance enhancement with respect to a representative linear robust LKA system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detecting Important Drivers of Gridded Population Modeling With Machine Learning

High-resolution population datasets have been lever-aged across a broad swath of domains, such as climate change, public policy, humanitarian aid, and rescue operations, among others. Machine learning methods were adopted to generate high-resolution or gridded population estimates by using various geospatial input features such as buildings, roads, and nighttime lights. In this study, we evaluate the importance of population features using Random Forest models across three levels of analysis, utilizing permutation measures. Our research aims to address key questions to enhance our understanding of high-resolution population modeling, such as: Are certain features globally (10 countries collectively) more important than others? Do optimal features vary by country? Within each country, do feature importance differ across administrative units? What similarities exist in feature importance at the global, country, and administrative unit levels? To answer these questions, we leverage the Kneedle algorithm to automate the selection of optimum features. We find that there are patterns displayed by features across spatial boundaries, evidenced by the same feature being the most important indicator of population across 7 of the 10 countries modeled. Our findings indicate that while important features may vary across geographies, certain features consistently hold greater importance than others agnostic of geography.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia

Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to investigate potential drivers of the observed precipitation trend. We find that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over remote polluted regions in South and East Asia lead to increased summer precipitation, especially convective and extreme precipitation, in arid Central Asia. Elevated concentrations of sulfate aerosols over remote polluted Asia cause an equatorward shift of the Asian Westerly Jet Stream through a fast response to cooling of the local atmosphere at mid-latitudes. This shift favours moisture supply from low-latitudes and moisture flux convergence over arid Central Asia, which is confirmed by a moisture budget analysis. High levels of absorbing black carbon lead to opposing changes in the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and reduced local precipitation, which can mask the impact of sulfate aerosols. This teleconnection between arid Central Asia precipitation and anthropogenic aerosols in remote Asian polluted regions highlights long-range impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulations and the hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-Arctic tundra

Abstract Tall deciduous shrubs are critically important to carbon and nutrient cycling in high-latitude ecosystems. As Arctic regions warm, shrubs expand heterogeneously across their ranges, including within unburned terrain experiencing isometric gradients of warming. To constrain the effects of widespread shrub expansion in terrestrial and Earth System Models, improved knowledge of local-to-regional scale patterns, rates, and controls on decadal shrub expansion is required. Using fine-scale remote sensing, we modeled the drivers of patch-scale tall-shrub expansion over 68 years across the central Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Models show the heterogeneous patterns of tall-shrub expansion are not only predictable but have an upper limit defined by permafrost, climate, and edaphic gradients, two-thirds of which have yet to be colonized. These observations suggest that increased nitrogen inputs from nitrogen-fixing alders contributed to a positive feedback that advanced overall tall-shrub expansion. These findings will be useful for constraining and projecting vegetation-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gridded daily weather data for North America with comprehensive uncertainty quantification

Abstract Access to daily high-resolution gridded surface weather data based on direct observations and over long time periods is essential for many studies and applications including vegetation, wildlife, soil health, hydrological modelling, and as driver data in Earth system models. We present Daymet V4, a 40-year daily meteorological dataset on a 1 km grid for North America, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, providing temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, vapor pressure, snow water equivalent, and day length. The dataset includes an objective quantification of uncertainty based on strict cross-validation analysis for temperature and precipitation results. The dataset represents several improvements from a previous version, and this data descriptor provides complete documentation for updated methods. Improvements include: reductions in the timing bias of input reporting weather station measurements; improvement to the three-dimensional regression model techniques in the core algorithm; and a novel approach to handling high elevation temperature measurement biases. We show cross-validation analyses with the underlying weather station data to demonstrate the technical validity of new dataset generation methods, and to quantify improved accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anisotropic inelastic materials milestone 2021

The focus on new fuel and cladding models are drivers for several new capabilities at the MOOSE and BISON levels. Since these materials are anisotropic, they require an extension of our inelastic mechanics capabilities, which currently heavily rely on radial return mapping and the assumption of isotropic stiffness. We plan to add additional code paths to support fully anisotropic materials, without degrading the performance for modeling isotropic materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 2. Evaluating Controls on Flow Persistence in an Urbanized Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in an urbanized catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, distributed temperature sensing (DTS), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Field_Application subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the SP site. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. The flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.m can only be used with COMSOL with MATLAB) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) DTS Contains collated DTS data including raw Stokes and anti-Stokes measurement (provided as .h5 file). It also includes DTS processing.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook for calibrating the DTS data using dts_calibration Python package. cooler_calibration.csv is the DTS calibration CSV used in the calibration sequence. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion. 6) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 7) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the SP sites (provided as CSV files). 8) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). Note: Code files (.ipynb, .py, .xml) can be opened in any standard code editor, .exo file can be viewed using Paraview, .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package, and .resipy file can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software.

ATS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A method for determining optimal electric range by considering electric vehicle lightweighting on perceived ownership cost

The limited driving range due to high costs and low energy densities of batteries constraints the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market growth. Lightweighting in theory can reduce energy consumption rate and extend the driving range. The knowledge gap is to quantitatively link the cost-effectiveness of light-weight technologies with range extension and consumer acceptance of BEVs. In this study, a physics-based energy consumption model of BEVs is constructed and associated with a statistics-based model on the basis of travel surveys. A perceived cost of ownership (PCO) is then developed by adding intangible costs to traditional total cost of ownership models. We estimate, at the disaggregate vehicle model and driver level and the aggregate market level, 1) the extended range due to lightweighting for a given battery size; and 2) the optimal electric range based on lightweighting decisions. The cost-effectiveness of lightweighting for BEV range extension is found to vary with income-dependent daily range limitation value, driving patterns and lightweighting technology costs. In general, adopting lightweighting in BEVs is more cost-effective for consumers with higher daily limitation value, as well as for those with higher driving intensity or suitable daily driving patterns. When the lightweighting involves a higher vehicle production cost, less lightweighting could reduce the overall PCO for BEV owners. 4 of the selected top ten BEV models are found to benefit from additional 2.09%–4.45% lightweighting. Finally, the method built in this study can guide automakers in planning R&D investments in battery and lightweighting technologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 1. Evaluating Above- and Below-ground Controls of Flow Persistence in a Forested Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in a forested catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, ground penetrating radar (GPR), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, electromagnetic (EM) imaging, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Contains two subfolders: Synthetic and Field_Application subfolder. Synthetic subfolder contains the ATS XML input script (can be opened using any code editor) for the four synthetic hydrological cases tested (Connected and gaining, Connected and losing, Disconnected and losing, and dry stream). It also includes other experimental cases to test the influence of precipitation and concentration gradient. For each synthetic case, the flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.mph can be opened with the commercial software COMSOL and requires a license) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. It also includes the Synthetic_model_plot.ipynb (can be opened using any code editor) to visualize the SP result and generate manuscript figures. The data subfolder contains mesh files to run both the ATS (.exo and .stl files can be viewed using Paraview; .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package) and COMSOL models. Field_Application subfolder contains two subfolders: ES_MDA_inversion and Final_Model. ES_MDA_inversion contains the Python script (.py can be opened using any code editor) and SP observation data used to run the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) inversion sequence to get the optimal model parameters. The Final_model subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the two SP sites. The same workflow steps outlined for the Synthetic subfolder apply here. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) EM Contains the CSV file of the EM data from the DUALEM-42, including spatial coordinates (x, y, z), apparent conductivity, and in-phase measurements at 2 m coil separations for horizontal coplanar (HCP) and perpendicular (PRP) geometries. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion (.resipy can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software). 6) GPR Includes GPR field datasets collected at 100 MHz and 250 MHz antenna frequencies, along with the processing/interpretation project file (GPR_process.gpz can be viewed using EKKO_Project 6, a commercial software by Sensors & Software that requires a license). 7) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 8) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the two SP sites (one in the perennial reach and the other in the intermittent reach), provided as DAT files. 9) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). It also includes DTW.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook containing the code for the dynamic time warping (DTW) with sliding window to evaluate SP signal synchronicity.

ATS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Driver Identification Midyear Report

First, we create a profile for each authorized driver based on their existing driving data. We then train a machine learning model on the driving data from this profile, yielding an individualized model for each driver. Finally during a drive, we pass the Controller Area Network (CAN) data to the model and authen ticate the driver’s identity in real-time. This verification or lack thereof could be used to alert supervisors of threats to their drivers or transported materials. Deviations from their normal driving behavior could indicate high-risk situations, medical events, or even insider threats.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural and anthropogenic controls on lake water‐level decline and evaporation‐to‐inflow ratio in the conterminous United States

Abstract Lake water levels are integral to lake function, but hydrologic changes from land and water management may alter lake fluctuations beyond natural ranges. We constructed a conceptual model of multifaceted drivers of lake water levels and evaporation‐to‐inflow ratio (Evap : Inflow). Using a structural equation modeling framework, we tested our model on (1) a national subset of lakes in the conterminous United States with minimal water management to describe natural drivers of lake hydrology and (2) five ecoregional subsets of lakes to explore regional variation in water management effects. Our model fits the national and ecoregional datasets and explained up to 47% of variation in Evap : Inflow, 38% of vertical water level decline, and 79% of horizontal water level decline (littoral exposure). For lakes with minimal water management, Evap : Inflow was related to lake depth ( β = −0.31) and surface inflow ( β = −0.44); vertical decline was related to annual climate (e.g., precipitation β = −0.18) and water management ( β = −0.21); and horizontal decline was largely related to vertical decline ( β = 0.73) and lake morphometry (e.g., depth β = −0.18). Anthropogenic effects varied by ecoregion and likely reflect differences in regional water management and climate. In the West, water management indicators were related to greater vertical decline ( β = 0.38), whereas in the Midwest, these indicators were related to more stable and full lake levels ( β = −0.22) even during drought conditions. National analyses show how human water use interacts with regional climate resulting in contrasting impacts to lake hydrologic variation in the United States.

Fergus, C. Emi↗