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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Natural Hazard Risk Assessments at the Global Scale

Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

Philip J. Ward↗
NASA NTRS2022

Systemic Risk

Systemic risk is the name given to impacts that spread within and across systems and sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health, infrastructure and the food sector) via the movements of people, goods, capital and information within and across boundaries (e.g. regions, countries and continents). The spread of these impacts can lead to potentially existential consequences and system collapse across a range of time horizons. Globalization contributes to systemic risk affecting people worldwide. The impacts of climate change or COVID-19 show how the challenges of addressing systemic risk go beyond conventional risk management and governance. Critical system interdependencies, amplified by underlying vulnerabilities, highlight that there is a growing need to better understand cascading impacts, systemic risks and the possible political (governance) and societal responses. This includes improving our understanding of the root causes of systemic risk, both biophysical and socio-economic, and related information needs. Addressing contemporary challenges in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

systemic risk↗
NASA NTRS2024

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA Disasters Program: A Partner for Coastal Disaster Response, Resiliency, and Risk Reduction

Summary: The NASA Applied Sciences: Disasters Program has kicked off a pilot project as “Mid-Atlantic Resiliency Demonstration Study, Communities at Intensive Risk” in FY17 and FY18; Efforts focus on a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to integrate a full suite of capabilities from numerical weather prediction, tide and surge modeling at high spatial resolution and urban/neighborhood scales, and remote sensing capabilities for water detection and depth estimation; Future efforts - Partner with Federal Agencies, academia professional societies to complement and augment ongoing work using Earth observations unique to NASA - Translate hazards to risk in order to understand local and regional impacts and minimize vulnerability.

Bell, Jordan↗
NASA NTRS2023

Earth Observations into Action: Systemic Integration of Earth Observation Applications into National Risk Reduction Decision Structures

As stated in the United Nations Global Assessment Report 2022 Concept Note, decision makers everywhere need data and statistics that are accurate, timely, sufficiently disaggregated, relevant, accessible, and easy to use. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate scalable and replicable methods to advance and integrate the use of Earth observation, specifically ongoing efforts within the Group on Earth Observations Work Programme and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Work Plan, to support risk-informed decision making, based on documented national and subnational needs and requirements.

earth observations↗
NASA NTRS2000

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Remote Sensing Contributions to Prediction and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Caused by Large Scale Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks

Remotely sensed vegetation measurements for the last 30 years combined with other climate data sets such as rainfall and sea surface temperatures have come to play an important role in the study of the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases. We show that epidemics and epizootics of previously unpredictable Rift Valley fever are directly influenced by large scale flooding associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillation. This flooding affects the ecology of disease transmitting arthropod vectors through vegetation development and other bioclimatic factors. This information is now utilized to monitor, model, and map areas of potential Rift Valley fever outbreaks and is used as an early warning system for risk reduction of outbreaks to human and animal health, trade, and associated economic impacts. The continuation of such satellite measurements is critical to anticipating, preventing, and managing disease epidemics and epizootics and other climate-related disasters.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS2011

External Tank Program - Legacy of Success

The largest single element of Space Shuttle is the External Tank (ET), which serves as the structural backbone of the vehicle during ascent and provides liquid propellants to the Orbiter s three Main Engines. The ET absorbs most of the seven million pounds of thrust exerted by the Solid Rocket Boosters and Main Engines. The design evolved through several block changes, reducing weight each time. Because the tank flies to orbital velocity with the Space Shuttle Orbiter, minimization of weight is mandatory, to maximize payload performance. The initial configuration, the standard weight tank, weighed 76,000 pounds and was an aluminum 2219 structure. The light weight tank weighed 66,000 pounds and flew 86 missions. The super light weight tank weighed 58,500 pounds and was primarily an aluminum-lithium structure. The final configuration and low weight enabled system level performance sufficient for assembly of the International Space Station in a high inclination orbit, vital for international cooperation. Another significant challenge was the minimization of ice formation on the cryogenic tanks. This was essential due to the system configuration and the choice of ceramic thermal protection system materials on the Orbiter. Ice would have been a major debris hazard. Spray on foam insulation materials served multiple functions including thermal insulation, conditioning of cryogenic propellants, and thermal protection for the tank structure during ascent and entry. The tank is large, and unique manufacturing facilities, tooling, and handling, and transportation operations were developed. Weld processes and tooling evolved with the design as it matured through several block changes. Non Destructive Evaluation methods were used to assure integrity of welds and thermal protection system materials. The aluminum-lithium alloy was used near the end of the program and weld processes and weld repair techniques had to be refined. Development and implementation of friction stir welding was a substantial technology development incorporated during the Program. Automated thermal protection system application processes were developed for the majority of the tank surface. Material obsolescence was an issue throughout the multi-decade program. Process controls were implemented to assure cleanliness in the production environment, to control contaminants, and to preclude corrosion. Each tank was accepted via rigorous inspections, including non-destructive evaluation techniques, proof testing, and all systems testing. In the post STS-107 era, the project focused on ascent debris risk reduction. This was accomplished via stringent process controls, post flight assessment using substantially improved imagery, and selective redesigns. These efforts were supported with a number of test programs to simulate combined environments. The debris risk was reduced by two orders of magnitude. During this time a major natural disaster was overcome when hurricane Katrina damaged the manufacturing facility. Numerous lessons from these efforts, the manufacturing and material processing issues, the key design features, and evolution of the design will be discussed.

Pilet, Jeffery C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO)

The Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project aims to apply various NASA technologies, such as Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) services, onboard-vehicle autonomy, novel approaches to communications and connectivity, and remote/virtual collaboration interfaces to current-day emergency response efforts to natural disasters. Today's emergency response efforts are based on long-standing procedures that are manaul in nature, and could benefit from modernization. In particular, the use of UAS vehicles is limited, primarily due to concerns surrounding dangerous interactions between manned/unmanned operations. STEReO hopes to introduce data exchanges that improve shared situation awareness, reduce manual coordination procedures, enable scalable and high-density air operations, collectivley bringing a positive impact to the incident response. When successful, STEReO technologies will improve efficiency and timeliness of the response and recovery phases of a disaster, resulting in substantial reductions to community harm, and will also accelerate NASA’s development of high-density resilient operations, benefitting other projects relying on increasing levels of autonomy and connectivity. The prepared material provides an overview of the STEReO project, for presentation at the 2019 Convergent Aeronautics Solution (CAS) Showcase event. The CAS showcase brings together all of the current CAS execution activities, highlighting NASA's high-risk investments in aeronautics research.

Mercer, Joey↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating near-real time satellite flood mapping for humanitarian early action: a case study on the 2020 Cambodia floods

Forecast-based early action is an increasingly popular framework advocating for the use of numerical weather prediction to set objective, automatic conditions for roll-out of proactive flood risk reduction efforts. Within this field, there is a relatively young discourse regarding the potential value of satellite Earth observations and the optimal role that remote sensing should play in improving the efficacy and value of forecast-based early action for flood management. The Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis for Floods tool (HYDRAFloods) was developed to provide automated, near real-time satellite-based flood extent maps to local governments, disaster managers, and humanitarian organizations. This research evaluates (a.) whether HYDRAFloods satisfactorily met needs identified by humanitarian partners during the October 2020 floods in Cambodia, and (b.) whether the novel additions of near real-time data and flood extent mapping resulted in demonstrable advantages over previous forecast-based flood early action systems as identified in the literature. From these results, the authors identify the technological and logistical limitations of the HYDRAFloods methodology and synthesize actionable recommendations for Earth observations practitioners seeking to better support forecast-based early action.

floods↗
NASA NTRS2011

External Tank - The Structure Backbone

The External Tank forms the structural backbone of the Space Shuttle in the launch configuration. Because the tank flies to orbital velocity with the Space Shuttle Orbiter, minimization of weight is mandatory, to maximize payload performance. Choice of lightweight materials both for structure and thermal conditioning was necessary. The tank is large, and unique manufacturing facilities, tooling, handling, and transportation operations were required. Weld processes and tooling evolved with the design as it matured through several block changes, to reduce weight. Non Destructive Evaluation methods were used to assure integrity of welds and thermal protection system materials. The aluminum-lithium alloy was used near the end of the program and weld processes and weld repair techniques had to be refined. Development and implementation of friction stir welding was a substantial technology development incorporated during the Program. Automated thermal protection system application processes were developed for the majority of the tank surface. Material obsolescence was an issue throughout the 40 year program. The final configuration and tank weight enabled international space station assembly in a high inclination orbit allowing international cooperation with the Russian Federal Space Agency. Numerous process controls were implemented to assure product quality, and innovative proof testing was accomplished prior to delivery. Process controls were implemented to assure cleanliness in the production environment, to control contaminants, and to preclude corrosion. Each tank was accepted via rigorous inspections, including non-destructive evaluation techniques, proof testing, and all systems testing. In the post STS-107 era, the project focused on ascent debris risk reduction. This was accomplished via stringent process controls, post flight assessment using substantially improved imagery, and selective redesigns. These efforts were supported with a number of test programs to simulate combined environments. Processing improvements included development and use of low spray guns for foam application, additional human factors considerations for production, use of high fidelity mockups during hardware processing with video review, improved tank access, extensive use of non destructive evaluation, and producibility enhancements. Design improvements included redesigned bipod fittings, a bellows heater, a feedline camera active during ascent flight, removal of the protuberance airload ramps, redesigned ice frost ramps, and titanium brackets replaced aluminum brackets on the liquid oxygen feedline. Post flight assessment improved due to significant addition of imagery assets, greatly improving situational awareness. The debris risk was reduced by two orders of magnitude. During this time a major natural disaster was overcome when Katrina damaged the manufacturing facility. Numerous lessons from these efforts are documented within the paper.

Welzyn, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Estep, Leland↗
NASA NTRS2015

The NASA Earth Science Program and Small Satellites

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by Government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the spacebased observing systems and supporting infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions to assure availability of key climate data sets, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Small satellites (~500 kg or less) are critical contributors to these current and future satellite missions. Some examples are the aforementioned Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), and the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) microsatellite constellation. Small satellites also support ESD in space validation and risk reduction of enabling technologies (components and systems). The status of the ESD Flight Program and the role of small satellites will be discussed.

Earth Science Prog & Small Sat↗