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The Use of Gridded Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (FFCO2) Inventory for Climate Mitigation Applications: Errors, Uncertainties, and Current and Future Challenges

Emission Inventory (EI) is a fundamental tool to monitor global compliance of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions reduction actions. Inventory guidelines provide a best practice to help EI compilers to make comparable national emission estimates, in spite of the differences in data availability across countries and regions. There are a variety of sources of errors and uncertainties, however, that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines define. For example, spatially-explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes, and there are no specific guidelines to disaggregate emission estimates from country scale. On top of that, EIs are fundamentally prone to systematic biases due to the simple calculation methodology and thus an objective evaluation (e.g. atmospheric top-down estimates) is needed to assure the accuracy of the estimates. ODIAC is a global high-resolution (1x1 km) fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded EI that is now often used in atmospheric CO2 modeling. ODIAC is based on disaggregation of national emission estimates made by CDIAC, which is the well accepted standard in the community. The ODIAC emission data product is updated on an annual basis using best available statistical data. Subnational spatial emission patterns are estimated using power plant profiles and satellite-observations of nighttime lights. In addition to the conventional CDIAC gridded data product, ODIAC carries international bunker emissions (shipping and aviation), which allows flux inversion modelers to accurately impose the global total fossil fuel emissions and their horizontal and vertical distribution. We have extensively evaluated ODIAC emissions using fine-grained EIs as well as a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy relevant) with a focus on the uncertainties associated with the emission disaggregation. We have examined the use of NASA's Black Marble Suomi-NPP/VIIRS nightlight data.

Oda, Tomohiro↗

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Discovery of solar wind neon in the Allende meteorite

Insert gases have been measured in seven sieve fractions of a disaggregated sample of the Allende meteorite. The disaggregation was done by ultrasonic treatment in water and by freeze-thawing. This sample consititutes the first gas-rich portion known to occur in the Allende meteorite. The composition of the trapped neon is solar, i.e., Neon-B, and the gas-rich samples contain more trapped Ne-20 than Ar-36. The set of sieve fractions show an anticorrelation of Ne-20 content and grain size. Gas-richness seems to be quite common among the CV3 meteorites with Allende added to the earlier known cases of Mokoia, Vigarano, and Efremovka.

Heymann, D.↗

Simulated meteorite impacts and volcanic explosions: Ejecta analyses and planetary implications

Past cratering studies have focused primarily on crater morphology. However, important questions remain about the nature of crater deposits. Phenomena that need to be studied include the distribution of shock effects in crater deposits and crater walls; the origin of mono- and polymict breccia; differences between local and distal ejecta; deformation induced by explosive volcanism; and the production of unshocked, high-speed ejecta that could form the lunar and martian meteorites found on the Earth. To study these phenomena, one must characterize ejecta and crater wall materials from impacts produced under controlled conditions. New efforts at LLNL simulate impacts and volcanism and study resultant deformation. All experiments use the two-stage light-gas gun facility at LLNL to accelerate projectiles to velocities of 0.2 to 4.3 km/s, including shock pressures of 0.9 to 50 GPa. We use granite targets and novel experimental geometries to unravel cratering processes in crystalline rocks. We have thus far conducted three types of simulations: soft recovery of ejecta, 'frozen crater' experiments, and an 'artificial volcano. Our ejecta recovery experiments produced a useful separation of impactites. Material originally below the projectile remained trapped there, embedded in the soft metal of the flyer plate. In contrast, material directly adjacent to the projectile was jetted away from the impact, producing an ejecta cone that was trapped in the foam recovery fixture. We find that a significant component of crater ejecta shows no signs of strong shock; this material comes from the near-surface 'interference zone' surrounding the impact site. This phenomenon explains the existence of unshocked meteorites on the Earth of lunar and martian origin. Impact of a large bolide on neighboring planets will produce high-speed, weakly shocked ejecta, which may be trapped by the Earth's gravitational field. 'Frozen crater' experiments show that the interference zone is highly localized; indeed, disaggregation does not extend beyond approx. 1.5 crater radii. A cone-shaped region extending downward from the impact site is completely disaggregated, including powdered rock that escaped into the projectile tube. Petrographic analysis of crater ejecta and wall material will be presented. Finally, study of ejecta from 0.9- and 1.3-GPa simulations of volcanic explosions reveal a complete lack of shock metamorphism. The ejecta shows no evidence of PDF's, amorphization, high-pressure phases, or mosaicism. Instead, all deformation was brittle, with fractures irregular (not planar) and most intergranular. The extent of fracturing was remarkable, with the entire sample reduced to fragments of gravel size and smaller.

Gratz, A. J.↗

Modeling thermal infrared (2-14 micrometer) reflectance spectra of frost and snow

Existing theories of radiative transfer in close-packed media assume that each particle scatters independently of its neighbors. For opaque particles, such as are common in the thermal infrared, this assumption is not valid, and these radiative transfer theories will not be accurate. A new method is proposed, called 'diffraction subtraction', which modifies the scattering cross section of close-packed large, opaque spheres to account for the effect of close packing on the diffraction cross section of a scattering particle. This method predicts the thermal infrared reflectance of coarse (greater than 50 micrometers radius), disaggregated granular snow. However, such coarse snow is typically old and metamorphosed, with adjacent grains welded together. The reflectance of such a welded block can be described as partly Fresnel in nature and cannot be predicted using Mie inputs to radiative transfer theory. Owing to the high absorption coefficient of ice in the thermal infrared, a rough surface reflectance model can be used to calculate reflectance from such a block. For very small (less than 50 micrometers), disaggregated particles, it is incorrect in principle to treat diffraction independently of reflection and refraction, and the theory fails. However, for particles larger than 50 micrometers, independent scattering is a valid assumption, and standard radiative transfer theory works.

Wald, Andrew E.↗

Techno-Political Space Cooperation: A Longitudinal Analysis of NASA's Bilateral and Multilateral Agreements

NASA's international programs are both numerous and successful, with over two thousand international agreements forming a foundation of U.S. government cooperation that involved over half the United Nation's membership. Previous research, by the author, into these agreements has identified five variables underlying NASA's international cooperation efforts and these variables form a framework for explaining international cooperation behavior on a macro-level. This paper builds upon that research to effectively explain lower-level patterns of cooperation in NASA's experience. Two approaches for analyzing the space agency's history are used: aggregation of all agreements and a cluster (disaggregated) analysis of four key segments. While researchers of NASA's international cooperation often considered individual cases first, and then generalize to macro-level explanations. This study, in contrast, begins by considering all agreements together in order to explain as much as possible at the macro level before proceeding to lower tier explanations. These lower tier assessments are important to understanding regional and political influences on bilateral and multilateral cooperation. In order to accomplish this lower-tier analysis, the 2000 agreements are disaggregated into logical groupings enabling an analysis of important questions and clearer focus on key patterns concerning developing states, such as the role of international institutions or privatization on international cooperation in space technology.

Hudiburg, John J.↗

Erosion, Transportation, and Deposition on Outer Solar System Satellites: Landform Evolution Modeling Studies

Mass movement and landform degradation reduces topographic relief by moving surface materials to a lower gravitational potential. In addition to the obvious role of gravity, abrasive mechanical erosion plays a role, often in combination with the lowering of cohesion, which allows disaggregation of the relief-forming material. The identification of specific landform types associated with mass movement and landform degradation provides information about local sediment particle size and abundance and transportation processes. Generally, mass movements can be classified in terms of the particle sizes of the transported material and the speed the material moved during transport. Most degradation on outer planet satellites appears consistent with sliding or slumping, impact erosion, and regolith evolution. Some satellites, such as Callisto and perhaps Hyperion and Iapetus, have an appearance that implies that some additional process is at work, most likely sublimation-driven landform modification and mass wasting. A variant on this process is thermally driven frost segregation as seen on all three icy Galilean satellites and perhaps elsewhere. Titan is unique among outer planet satellites in that Aeolian and fluvial processes also operate to erode, transport, and deposit material. We will evaluate the sequence and extent of various landform-modifying erosional and volatile redistribution processes that have shaped these icy satellites using a 3-D model that simulates the following surface and subsurface processes: 1) sublimation and re-condensation of volatiles; 2) development of refractory lag deposits; 3) disaggregation and downward sloughing of surficial material; 4) radiative heating/cooling of the surface (including reflection, emission, and shadowing by other surface elements); 5) thermal diffusion; and 6) vapor diffusion. The model will provide explicit simulations of landform development and thusly predicts the topographic and volatile evolution of the surface and final landscape form as constrained by DEMs. We have also simulated fluvial and lacustrine modification of icy satellites landscapes to evaluate the degree to which fluvial erosion of representative initial landscapes can replicate the present Titan landscape.

erosion↗

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations into a Land Surface Model for the Assessment of Regional Flood Potential

We evaluate performance of the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) under flood conditions after the assimilation of observations of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Assimilation offers three key benefits for the viability of GRACE observations to operational applications: (1) near-real time analysis; (2) a downscaling of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution; and (3) state disaggregation of the vertically-integrated TWSA. We select the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin as a case study, and find that assimilation generally made the model wetter in the months preceding flood. We compare model outputs with observations from 14 USGS groundwater wells to assess improvements after assimilation. Finally, we examine disaggregated water storage information to improve the mechanistic understanding of event generation. Validation establishes that assimilation improved the model skill substantially, increasing regional groundwater anomaly correlation from 0.58 to 0.86. For the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin, results show that groundwater and snow water equivalent were contributors to pre-event flood potential, providing spatially-distributed early warning information.

flood↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km x 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

climate projection↗

On the Impact of Granularity of Space-Based Urban CO2 Emissions in Urban Atmospheric Inversions: A Case Study for Indianapolis, IN

Quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities is a key challenge towards effective emissions management. An inversion analysis from the INdianapolis FLUX experiment (INFLUX) project, as the first of its kind, has achieved a top-down emission estimate for a single city using CO2 data collected by the dense tower network deployed across the city. However, city-level emission data, used as a priori emissions, are also a key component in the atmospheric inversion framework. Currently, fine-grained emission inventories (EIs) able to resolve GHG city emissions at high spatial resolution, are only available for few major cities across the globe. Following the INFLUX inversion case with a global 1x1 km ODIAC fossil fuel CO2 emission dataset, we further improved the ODIAC emission field and examined its utility as a prior for the city scale inversion. We disaggregated the 1x1 km ODIAC non-point source emissions using geospatial datasets such as the global road network data and satellite-data driven surface imperviousness data to a 3030 m resolution. We assessed the impact of the improved emission field on the inversion result, relative to priors in previous studies (Hestia and ODIAC). The posterior total emission estimate (5.1 MtC/yr) remains statistically similar to the previous estimate with ODIAC (5.3 MtC/yr). However, the distribution of the flux corrections was very close to those of Hestia inversion and the model-observation mismatches were significantly reduced both in forward and inverse runs, even without hourly temporal changes in emissions. EIs reported by cities often do not have estimates of spatial extents. Thus, emission disaggregation is a required step when verifying those reported emissions using atmospheric models. Our approach offers gridded emission estimates for global cities that could serves as a prior for inversion, even without locally reported EIs in a systematic way to support city-level Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) practice implementation.

EIs↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

AstroDOME: Standardized, Mass-Produceable, Small NASA Astrophysics Observatories for Big Missions

NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center is investigating the use of small, commercial off the shelf (COTS) spacecraft to enable breakthrough astrophysics research at radically reduced cost over previous generations of missions. This paper will focus on the Mission Systems perspective of this investigation. It will cover the spacecraft to instrument interface, and lessons learned in early concept payload development. Low-cost COTS spacecraft have proliferated in the last ~5 years. They represent an order of magnitude reduction in the cost of spacecraft bus development and acquisition. They are enabled by the advent of low-cost smallsat launch options in the immediately preceding years, and are seeded by recent distributed and disaggregated missions in other sectors such as telecommunications megaconstellations (e.g. Starlink, OneWeb, Project Kuiper) and ongoing Space Development Agency (SDA) developments. Our study was tasked with developing a standardized, mass-produceable, astrophysics payload which is reconfigurable to different wavelength bands while maintaining a single optics bench design, and a standardized mechanical, electrical, data, and thermal interface to the spacecraft bus, and which may be reconfigured to multiple COTS spacecraft offerings. In this paper we will discuss lessons learned from our case study. We will also present identified keys to mission success for performing cutting edge astrophysics observations while taking advantage of economies of scale with a disaggregated, standardized architecture.

Matthew Marcus↗

Spectral reflectance of 72275 from Boulder 1, Station 2, Apollo 17

Spectral reflectance measurements were made of samples 72275,103 (chip) and 72275,98 (saw cuttings). Both the chips and the cuttings consist mainly of friable feldspathic breccia. Sample 72275,103, a chip taken from eastend piece 72275,27, is rich in gray polymict breccia. The saw cuttings were derived from the entire rock, but they are probably strongly biased toward the friable feldspathic matrix material that has been preferentially disaggregated. The spectra of both samples show two prominent absorption bands arising from Fe2(+) in pyroxene. The depths of these bands are large enough to preclude the presence of much glass or opaque material in the samples. From the spectral properties alone, it is clear that the samples are not soil breccias nor vitric breccias, as, of course, has been verified by petrography. The wavelengths of the principal absorption bands plot on the pyroxene trend, indicating that orthopyroxene is spectrally dominant.

Adams, J. B.↗

Preservation of lunar core samples - Preparation and interpretation of three-dimensional stratigraphic sections

Preservation and analysis of core samples collected from the lunar regolith are discussed. The objectives of core sampling are described together with the core-sampling equipment used in the Apollo program. The effects of disaggregation in core samples are summarized, and ways to preserve the stratigraphy in these samples are reviewed, particularly partial impregnation of samples with polybutyl methacrylate. It is shown that stratigraphic sections preserved in this way reveal individual fragments of the regolith in their original positions, primary and secondary depositional structures related to lunar processes, and the nature and extent of deformations caused by sampling equipment. It is concluded that since the core sedimentary structures indicate complex three-dimensional variations in the regolith, quantitative models of regolith evolution must allow for distinctive local histories as well as irregular reworking and deposition events due to impact processes.

Fryxell, R.↗

Structure in the upper lunar crust

Warren and Trice (1975) have shown that bulk elastic properties of lunar samples can be systematically correlated with petrographic classification and descriptions of lithification and disaggregation. The present paper reviews the underlying systematics and uses them to estimate the average degree of lithification and structure densities compatible with the observed seismic profiles in the top 30 km of the moon. The estimates are discussed in terms of some of their implications for the thermal gradient and for annealing and fracture histories. The published lunar seismic profiles are consistent with a sharp gradient in structure density at a depth of about 1 km, from highly fractured lithic units above 1 km to only moderately fractured competent rock below.

Warren, N.↗

Missile impact craters (White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico) and applications to lunar research: Contributions to astrogeology

Craters in natural materials at White Sands Missile Range, N. Mex., were produced by the impact of high-velocity to hypervelocity missiles traveling along oblique trajectories with kinetic energies between 2.1 and 81 × 1014 ergs. The oblique impacts produce craters 2 to 10 m across with morphologies and ejecta that are bilaterally symmetrical with respect to the plane of the missile trajectory. Rims are high and the amount of ejecta large in down-trajectory and lateral directions, whereas rims are low to nonexistent and ejecta thin to absent up-trajectory. Symmetry development and modifications of the symmetry are a function of target material, local topography, and angle of impact. Seven mappable units can be recognized in and around the craters. Three of these are ejecta: thick ejecta near the crater, thin to discontinuous ejecta at greater distances, and scattered ejecta at the greatest distances to the limit of throwout. These ejecta units may be absent on the up-trajectory side; if present, they are rarely as thick or continuous as on other sides of the crater. Three units are target materials: undeformed target material exposed in local patches through thin to discontinuous ejecta and everywhere between the fragments of scattered ejecta, tilted and broken target material exposed in upper crater walls, and shattered and fractured target material exposed on the up-trajectory crater wall. The seventh unit is slope material composed of talus and fallback within the crater. Development, character, and exposure of these units varies chiefly with the target material. Ejecta from the craters is chiefly broken but relatively undeformed target material that may range in size from very fine grained debris to large blocks. Where the target is porous, significant amounts of the ejecta are composed of sheared and compressed fragments, some coated with dark layers of mixed projectile pieces, powder, and fused metal mixed with crushed target material. For layered targets, the original stratigraphic sequence is crudely preserved and in inverted order in thick ejecta. Secondary impact craters are produced by the impact of ejected fragments when the surrounding surface materials are sufficiently weak. A wide variety of secondary impact crater relations may result. Secondary craters nearest the primary crater have blocks in them that are larger than or the same size as the crater they produced. Farther from the primary crater, the fragments are generally smaller than the secondary crater and are ejected from it. Excavation of four craters revealed a mixed breccia beneath the crater floor composed of missile pieces, sheared and compressed target material, and crushed debris. Banded, disaggregated target material and nonmixed breccia surrounded the mixed breccia, and these breccias were surrounded by a zone of conjugate fractures. Beneath the ejecta on the lateral and down-trajectory crater flanks, the target materials were tilted upward and broken. Up-trajectory, open fractures and downward displacement occurred in two of the craters. No displacement was observed for the other two. Beneath the down-trajectory rims of craters with distinct layering, overturned synclines were observed. Missile breakup and behavior during cratering are a function of target and missile properties. Missile breakup depends on missile velocity and is most extensive at high velocities, where the missile is fragmented, powdered, and partly fused. Burial of missile or its fragmented, powdered, and fused remains is greatest for porous targets and least for dense cohesive targets. For very porous targets, camouflet structures containing the fragmented missile may form. Least squares fit to the data on craters in dry to moist targets indicate V(a) = 10^(-11.433)E(p)^(1.205) where V(a) is the volume of the apparent crater and E(p) is the kinetic energy of the missile. This equation is consistent with expectations of the equations relating apparent depth and radius to kinetic energy. Extrapolation of displaced masses and kinetic energies for laboratory impacts with sand and rock converge near 10^(15) to 10^(16) ergs, where the extrapolations are near the data on missile impact craters, corrected for impact angle. Displaced masses of craters produced by missile impacts and by chemical explosives with small scaled depths of burial are about the same when the kinetic energies of the missiles (corrected for angle of impact) are equal to the TNT equivalent energy of the explosive. The problem of equivalent scaled depth of burst for an impact crater is complicated and not entirely resolved, however. Both missile impact craters and chemical explosive craters in water-saturated targets are larger than their counterparts in dry to moist materials. Data collected during the study of missile impact craters have helped resolve a number of problems in lunar research: (1) the soillike nature of lunar surface materials was predicted, (2) sizes of craters produced by artificial impacts were correctly predicted, (3) certain features imaged by Surveyor were found to be analogous to features associated with missile impact craters, {4) missile impacts were used in support of the Apollo passive seismic experiment, (5) craters seen in Apollo orbital photographs were found to be similar to some missile impact craters, (6) missile impact craters supplied data on sample collection and crater phenomenology used in training astronauts, and (7) some returned lunar samples are similar to coated, sheared, and compressed fragments ejected from missile impact craters.

H. J. Moore↗

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension. Volume 1: Background and summary

The framework for a model of travel demand which will be useful in predicting the total market for air travel between two cities is discussed. Variables to be used in determining the need for air transportation where none currently exists and the effect of changes in system characteristics on attracting latent demand are identified. Existing models are examined in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. Much of the existing behavioral research in travel demand is incorporated to allow the inclusion of non-economic factors, such as convenience. The model developed is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

The use of parametric cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft systems in establishing initial Design to Cost Targets

This paper provides a brief overview of Design to Cost (DTC). Problems inherent in attempting to estimate costs are discussed, along with techniques and types of models that have been developed to estimate aircraft costs. A set of cost estimating relationships that estimate the total production cost of commercial and military transport aircraft at the systems level is presented and the manner in which these equations might be used effectively in developing initial DTC targets is indicated. The principal point made in this paper is that, by using a disagregated set of equations to estimate transport aircraft costs at the systems level, reasonably accurate preliminary cost estimates may be achieved. These estimates may serve directly as initial DTC targets, or adjustments may be made to the estimates obtained for some of the systems to estimate the production cost impact of alternative designs or manufacturing technologies. The relative ease by which estimates may be made with this model, the flexibility it provides by being disaggregated, and the accuracy of the estimates it provides make it a unique and useful tool in establishing initial DTC targets.

Beltramo, M. N.↗