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A probabilistic graphical model foundation for enabling predictive digital twins at scale

A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset–twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables us to draw upon well-established theory and methods from Bayesian statistics, dynamical systems and control theory. The declarative and general nature of the proposed digital twin model make it rigorous yet flexible, enabling its application at scale in a diverse range of application areas. Here, we demonstrate how the model is instantiated to enable a structural digital twin of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The digital twin is calibrated using experimental data from a physical UAV asset. Its use in dynamic decision-making is then illustrated in a synthetic example where the UAV undergoes an in-flight damage event and the digital twin is dynamically updated using sensor data. The graphical model foundation ensures that the digital twin calibration and updating process is principled, unified and able to scale to an entire fleet of digital twins.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Developing a digital twin for hydropower systems - an open platform framework

The definition of digital twin in Wikipedia says “A digital twin is a virtual representation that serves as the real-time digital counterpart of a physical object or process.” Indeed, the digital twin (DT) concept was initially introduced at the start of the 21st century with intent to create a digital model to reflect physical systems and derive insight from the model to make the decision on system operation. DT is also a promising enabling technology for realising smart manufacturing and industry 4.0. In general, DTs consist of three main parts: physical product, virtual product, and connected data that link physical and virtual product via various data communication schemes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Digital Twin Development for Real Time Optimization

In the real-time optimization operation process of the integrated energy system, digital twin (DT) can support operators to find optimal dispatching strategy. In this research, the DT framework interfacing (external) system-level simulation model, RAVEN, and Python-based optimization framework has been developed. Simple demonstration of finding optimal input values minimizing an objective function with the DT framework has been presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Combining In-situ Diagnostics and Data Analytics for Discovery of Process-Structure-Property Relationships in AM parts – A Step Toward Digital Twins

In-situ additive manufacturing (AM) diagnostic tools (e.g., optical/infrared imaging, acoustic, etc.) already exist to correlate process anomalies to printed part defects. This current work aimed to augment existing capabilities by: 1) Incorporating in-situ imaging w/ machine learning (ML) image processing software (ORNL- developed "Peregrine") for AM process anomaly detection 2) Synchronizing multiple in-situ sensors for simultaneous analysis of AM build events 3) Correlating in-situ AM process data, generated part defects and part mechanical properties The key R&D question investigated was to determine if these new combined hardware/software tools could be used to successfully quantify defect distributions for parts build via SNL laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) machines, aiming to better understand data-driven process-structure-property- performance relationships. High resolution optical cameras and acoustic microphones were successfully integrated in two LPBF machines and linked to the Peregrine ML software. The software was successfully calibrated on both machines and used to image hundreds of layers of multiple builds to train the ML software in identifying printed part vs powder. The software's validation accuracy to identify this aspect increased from 56% to 98.8% over three builds. Lighting conditions inside the chamber were found to significantly impact ML algorithm predictions from in-situ sensors, so these were tailored to each machine's internal framework. Finally, 3D part reconstructions were successfully generated for a build from the compressed stack of layer-wise images. Resolution differences nearest and furthest from the optical camera were discussed. Future work aims to improve optical resolution, increase process anomalies identified, and integrate more sensor modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards developing multiscale-multiphysics models and their surrogates for digital twins of metal additive manufacturing

Artificial intelligence (AI) embedded within digital models of manufacturing processes can be used to improve process productivity and product quality significantly. The application of such advanced capabilities particularly to highly digitalized processes such as metal additive manufacturing (AM) is likely to make those processes commercially more attractive. AI capabilities will reside within Digital Twins (DTs) which are living virtual replicas of the physical processes. DTs will be empowered to operate autonomously in a diagnostic control capacity to supervise processes and can be interrogated by the practitioner to inform the optimal processing route for any given product. The utility of the information gained from the DTs would depend on the quality of the digital models and, more importantly, their faster-solving surrogates which dwell within DTs for consultation during rapid decision-making. In this article, we point out the exceptional value of DTs in AM and focus on the need to create high-fidelity multiscale-multiphysics models for AM processes to feed the AI capabilities. We identify technical hurdles for their development, including those arising from the multiscale and multiphysics characteristics of the models, the difficulties in linking models of the subprocesses across scales and physics, and the scarcity of experimental data. We discuss the need for creating surrogate models using machine learning approaches for real-time problem-solving. We further identify non-technical barriers, such as the need for standardization and difficulties in collaborating across different types of institutions. We offer potential solutions for all these challenges, after reflecting on and researching discussions held at an international symposium on the subject in 2019. Here, we argue that a collaborative approach can not only help accelerate their development compared with disparate efforts, but also enhance the quality of the models by allowing modular development and linkages that account for interactions between the various sub-processes in AM. A high-level roadmap is suggested for starting such a collaboration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Autonomous Critical Data Extrapolator for the AGN-201m

Nuclear nonproliferation serves as a key goal, being undertaken by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). To recognize proliferation there are two pathways that states, who intend to use nuclear material for malicious purposes can take, diversion can misuse. Diversion is when fissile nuclear material is declared to the IAEA for non-weapon purposes, but then covertly removed. If the source of nuclear material, that is not declared and not fissionable, is placed inside the reactor core to create fissile material used to create weapons then the state is using the second pathway of proliferation, misuse. With the emerging development in areas of simulation and machine learning the creation of virtual models of reactor systems, digital twins, serve as a potential method to identify proliferation through detecting anomalous behavior in the reactor. A digital twin for a physical nuclear reactor has never been developed, as digital twins serve as an emerging technology. To investigate the process for development and use of a digital twin for a nuclear reactor Idaho State University’s AGN-201m serves as the nuclear reactor used for development of this digital twin. A data acquisition system has been installed to the reactor system allowing for the transfer of collected data from a reactor operation to Idaho National Laboratory’s Deeplynx data warehouse. When utilizing data to train reactor physics and machine learning models, a significant challenge encountered is the initial state of the data. Nuclear proliferation will have the capacity to be detected when the reactor immediately starts up, nor will it occur after the reactor shuts down. Generally, it will be detected when the reactor is operating at some desired power over a sufficient period for that specific reactor design. For the AGN-201m this will be when the reactor is critical (generally 1 mW or above) for a timespan that is within or less than the range of a regular business day. Datasets sent to Deeplynx have had to be manually cut to when the reactor is critical based on plots of power levels. This method is inefficient and laborious, especially when using multiple datasets at once to train a model. To provide a more streamlined approach an automated critical data extrapolator is developed, with capabilities of recognizing when the reactor operation first reaches criticality, and when the reactor undergoes a SCRAM and is shutdown.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Immersive Digital Twins and Decision Making

This work focuses on developing and implementing immersive digital twins to support decision-making processes in construction automation and energy simulation analysis. The use of digital twins enables users to explore and interact with virtual replicas of physical systems, providing a unique and valuable perspective for problem-solving. In the context of construction automation, we present two case studies that integrate immersive visualization and worker-machine interaction. In the context of energy simulation analysis using digital twins, we describe our digital twin framework that combines interactive visualization with machine learning techniques to approximate computationally expensive simulations, allowing for faster and more efficient analysis of complex energy systems. Through these research endeavors, we demonstrate the potential of immersive digital twins in decision-making across various domains.

digital twins↗

Developing a Digital Twin for SRF Cavity Assembly at Fermilab

When assembling Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) Cavities, maintaining an environment devoid of particulates like dust and other small particles is essential. If a single spec of dust enters the cavity a significant degradation of performance can occur. To avoid a cavity failure Fermilab assembles the SRF cavities within a ISO-4 (Class 10) environment. This environment though is still susceptible to foreign contaminants when technicians enter and new components are added to the cleanroom. To reduce the risk even more Fermilab has introduced a cobot manipulator into the cleanroom environment to speed up the assembly time which will reduce the time that the technicians operate in the cleanroom. But, this still leaves the potential of contaminants to enter the cleanroom if new components need to be tested within the cleanroom. This project aims to lay the groundwork to develop a Digital Twin environment of the cleanroom to aid in manufacturing processes and testing. In its simplest form, a digital twin is a bidirectional link between a physical system and its digital counterpart or twin. NVIDIA Isaac Sim is used as the digital twin foundation for the digital representation of the cleanroom, specifically for the UR16e assembly area. A simulated UR16e was used to validate the performance of Isaac Sim as a testing environment by comparing the tool center points (TCP) positional data between the simulated and digital representation of the UR16e. Due to a new vision based robotic assembly process being introduced to the cleanroom a digital representation of the physical camera was tested and validated to ensure that it will produce close to the same outcome as the physical environment. The TCP comparison results showed a peak translational error of approximately 0.1mm and rotational errors of up to 8 between the simulated and digital UR16es. While the camera validation performed with high repeatability across multiple runs, it still requires minor tuning before it can accurately replicate a physical camera.

Imburgia, Joseph [Northern Illinois U.]↗

Bayesian inference of fiber orientation and polymer properties in short fiber-reinforced polymer composites

Herein we present a Bayesian methodology to infer the elastic modulus of the constituent polymer and the fiber orientation state in a short-fiber reinforced polymer composite (SFRP). The properties are inversely determined using only a few experimental tests. Developing composite manufacturing digital twins for SFRP composite processes, including injection molding and extrusion deposition additive manufacturing (EDAM) requires extensive experimental material characterization. In particular, characterizing the composite mechanical properties is time consuming and therefore, micromechanics models are used to fully identify the elasticity tensor. Hence, the objective of this paper is to infer the fiber orientation and the effective polymer modulus and therefore, identify the elasticity tensor of the composite with minimal experimental tests. To that end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model coupled with a micromechanics model to infer the fiber orientation and the polymer elastic modulus simultaneously which we then use to estimate the composite elasticity tensor. We motivate and demonstrate the methodology for the EDAM process but the development is such that it is applicable to other SFRP composites processed via other methods. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides a reliable framework for the inference, with as few as three tensile tests, while accounting for epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Posterior predictive checks show that the model is able to recreate the experimental data well. The ability of the Bayesian approach to calibrate the material properties and its associated uncertainties, make it a promising tool for enabling a probabilistic predictive framework for composites manufacturing digital twins.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Digital Engineering Sensor Architectures for Future Microreactor Builds

The development of new nuclear reactors continues to be high risk during the construction phase, with many programs exceeding their budget by 2–3×. This work entails an investigation of sensors that can be utilized during the construction of microreactors and their incorporation into a digital twin supporting the construction process. These sensors can be used to monitor construction progress, inform of variances from the expected design, and verify that the reactor is being built to the planned building information management model. This will ensure reactor equipment and components accurately interact through welding or additive manufacturing technologies. This study illustrates the importance of the digital engineering architecture for microreactor deployment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A mesoscopic digital twin that bridges length and time scales for control of additively manufactured metal microstructures

We present our recent development of an integrated mesoscale digital twin (DT) framework for relating processing conditions, microstructures, and mechanical responses of additively manufactured (AM) metals. In particular, focusing on the laser powder bed fusion technique, we describe how individual modeling and simulation capabilities are coupled to investigate and control AM microstructural features at multiple length and time scales. We review our prior case studies that demonstrate the integrated modeling schemes, in which high-fidelity melt pool dynamics simulations provide accurate local thermal profiles and histories to subsequent AM microstructure simulations. We also report our new mechanical response modeling results for predicted AM microstructures. In addition, we illustrate how our DT framework has been validated through modeling–experiment integration, as well as how it has been practically utilized to guide and analyze AM experiments. Finally, we share our perspectives on future directions of further development of the DT framework for more efficient, accurate predictions and wider ranges of applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization

Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization

Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.

actuated signal control↗

Digital Twins for Materials

Digital twins are emerging as powerful tools for supporting innovation as well as optimizing the in-service performance of a broad range of complex physical machines, devices, and components. A digital twin is generally designed to provide accurate in-silico representation of the form (i.e., appearance) and the functional response of a specified (unique) physical twin. This paper offers a new perspective on how the emerging concept of digital twins could be applied to accelerate materials innovation efforts. Specifically, it is argued that the material itself can be considered as a highly complex multiscale physical system whose form (i.e., details of the material structure over a hierarchy of material length) and function (i.e., response to external stimuli typically characterized through suitably defined material properties) can be captured suitably in a digital twin. Accordingly, the digital twin can represent the evolution of structure, process, and performance of the material over time, with regard to both process history and in-service environment. This paper establishes the foundational concepts and frameworks needed to formulate and continuously update both the form and function of the digital twin of a selected material physical twin. The form of the proposed material digital twin can be captured effectively using the broadly applicable framework of n-point spatial correlations, while its function at the different length scales can be captured using homogenization and localization process-structure-property surrogate models calibrated to collections of available experimental and physics-based simulation data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Partial Support of the Fast-Track Consensus Study on Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins (Final Report)

This study from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was launched to explore the foundational research gaps and opportunities for digital twins. As part of the information gathering process, the committee organized three targeted workshops—in engineering, climate sciences, and biomedical sciences—to better understand domain-specific nuances and barriers to developing digital twins. These sessions enabled cross-sector experts to surface field-specific needs, challenges, and open questions related to digital twins. Thousands of participants across multiple domains engaged in the discussions, which workshops were summarized in three separate Proceedings-in-Brief.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving the User Interface of the DeepLynx Data Warehouse

DeepLynx is an open-source ontology-based data warehouse created by INL to support the creation and life cycle of digital engineering projects, with a particular emphasis on digital twins [1]. Digital twins are systems that represent physical assets and process in a real-time digital environment [1]. Most well-known commercial data warehouses use Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) for users to interact with their systems [3]. Limited publications have addressed the design of these interfaces and understanding of their target users. The current users and development team acknowledge the need to improve the current UI, not just for aesthetics but to improve functionality and workflow of DeepLynx. Traditional data warehouse users are developers, data scientists and business analysts [2]. DeepLynx users have a vast range of experience using data warehouses, and diverse roles, including engineers, scientists and management positions. Because there is a broader audience of target users for DeepLynx than a typical data warehouse, it is essential that DeepLynx has a useable and intuitive user interface. To achieve this the team performed human-computer interaction methods, including a Heuristic Evaluation of current UI using Neilsen’s Usability Heuristic, create personas based on current users by designing a user survey, data analysis and develop of personas. Followed by a redesign of the UI following using Neilsen’s Usability Heuristic and Norman’s Principles of Interactive Design in industry standard software Figma. Lastly a Heuristic Evaluation of new UI design, using Neilsen’s Usability Heuristic and User testing of redesign UI and have a group of users complete a Thinking Aloud Test of the new UI. Preliminary results of the Heuristic Evaluation of current UI arise issue with Consistency and Standards, Visibility of System Status, Match System and Real World and Recognition Rather than Recall. These issues were addressed in the proposed redesign by applying Neilsen’s Usability Heuristic and Norman’s Principles of Interactive Design. Next steps include formalized list of lessons learned and design implications for future publications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Digital Twins for Predicting Nitrifier Population and Kinetics

Digital twins can be mechanistic biological process models that when regularly calibrated give an indication of nitrifier kinetics and nitrifier population. Having such information can inform waste rates and dissolved oxygen setpoints for ammonia-based aeration control.

Sparks, Jeff↗