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At least 37 records · Page 2

Dynamic Routing of Aircraft in the Presence of Adverse Weather Using a POMDP Framework

Each year weather-related airline delays result in hundreds of millions of dollars in additional fuel burn, maintenance, and lost revenue, not to mention passenger inconvenience. The current approaches for aircraft route planning in the presence of adverse weather still mainly rely on deterministic methods. In contrast, this work aims to deal with the problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) framework, which allows for reasoning over uncertainty (including uncertainty in weather evolution over time) and results in solutions that are more robust to disruptions. The POMDP-based decision support system is demonstrated on several scenarios involving convective weather cells and is benchmarked against a deterministic planning system with functionality similar to those currently in use or under development.

Decision making↗

The application of structural reliability techniques to plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Array

A new aerospace application of structural reliability techniques is presented, where the applied forces depend on many probabilistic variables. This application is the plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Arrays. When the space shuttle berths with Space Station Freedom it must brake and maneuver towards the berthing point using its primary jets. The jet exhaust, or plume, may cause high loads on the photovoltaic arrays. The many parameters governing this problem are highly uncertain and random. An approach, using techniques from structural reliability, as opposed to the accepted deterministic methods, is presented which assesses the probability of failure of the array mast due to plume impingement loading. A Monte Carlo simulation of the berthing approach is used to determine the probability distribution of the loading. A probability distribution is also determined for the strength of the array. Structural reliability techniques are then used to assess the array mast design. These techniques are found to be superior to the standard deterministic dynamic transient analysis, for this class of problem. The results show that the probability of failure of the current array mast design, during its 15 year life, is minute.

Yunis, Isam S.↗

The Application of Structural Reliability Techniques to Plume Impingement Loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Array

A new aerospace application of structural reliability techniques is presented, where the applied forces depend on many probabilistic variables. This application is the plume impingement loading of the Space Station Freedom Photovoltaic Arrays. When the space shuttle berths with Space Station Freedom it must brake and maneuver towards the berthing point using its primary jets. The jet exhaust, or plume, may cause high loads on the photovoltaic arrays. The many parameters governing this problem are highly uncertain and random. An approach, using techniques from structural reliability, as opposed to the accepted deterministic methods, is presented which assesses the probability of failure of the array mast due to plume impingement loading. A Monte Carlo simulation of the berthing approach is used to determine the probability distribution of the loading. A probability distribution is also determined for the strength of the array. Structural reliability techniques are then used to assess the array mast design. These techniques are found to be superior to the standard deterministic dynamic transient analysis, for this class of problem. The results show that the probability of failure of the current array mast design, during its 15 year life, is minute.

Yunis, Isam S.↗

Exhaustive Versus Randomized Searchers for Nonlinear Optimization in 21st Century Computing: Solar Application

We present a simple multi-dimensional exhaustive search method to obtain, in a reasonable time, the optimal solution of a nonlinear programming problem. It is more relevant in the present day non-mainframe computing scenario where an estimated 95% computing resources remains unutilized and computing speed touches petaflops. While the processor speed is doubling every 18 months, the band width is doubling every 12 months, and the hard disk space is doubling every 9 months. A randomized search algorithm or, equivalently, an evolutionary search method is often used instead of an exhaustive search algorithm. The reason is that a randomized approach is usually polynomial-time, i.e., fast while an exhaustive search method is exponential-time i.e., slow. We discuss the increasing importance of exhaustive search in optimization with the steady increase of computing power for solving many real-world problems of reasonable size. We also discuss the computational error and complexity of the search algorithm focusing on the fact that no measuring device can usually measure a quantity with an accuracy greater than 0.005%. We stress the fact that the quality of solution of the exhaustive search - a deterministic method - is better than that of randomized search. In 21 st century computing environment, exhaustive search cannot be left aside as an untouchable and it is not always exponential. We also describe a possible application of these algorithms in improving the efficiency of solar cells - a real hot topic - in the current energy crisis. These algorithms could be excellent tools in the hands of experimentalists and could save not only large amount of time needed for experiments but also could validate the theory against experimental results fast.

Sen, Syamal K.↗

Probabilistic Path Planning of Montgolfier Balloons in Strong, Uncertain Wind Fields

Lighter-than-air vehicles such as hot-air balloons have been proposed for exploring Saturn s moon Titan, as well as other bodies with significant atmospheres. For these vehicles to navigate effectively, it is critical to incorporate the effects of surrounding wind fields, especially as these winds will likely be strong relative to the control authority of the vehicle. Predictive models of these wind fields are available, and previous research has considered problems of planning paths subject to these predicted forces. However, such previous work has considered the wind fields as known a priori, whereas in practical applications, the actual wind vector field is not known exactly and may deviate significantly from the wind velocities estimated by the model. A probabilistic 3D path-planning algorithm was developed for balloons to use uncertain wind models to generate time-efficient paths. The nominal goal of the algorithm is to determine what altitude and what horizontal actuation, if any is available on the vehicle, to use to reach a particular goal location in the least expected time, utilizing advantageous winds. The solution also enables one to quickly evaluate the expected time-to-goal from any other location and to avoid regions of large uncertainty. This method is designed for balloons in wind fields but may be generalized for any buoyant vehicle operating in a vector field. To prepare the planning problem, the uncertainty in the wind field is modeled. Then, the problem of reaching a particular goal location is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) using a discretized space approach. Solving the MDP provides a policy of what actuation option (how much buoyancy change and, if applicable, horizontal actuation) should be selected at any given location to minimize the expected time-to-goal. The results provide expected time-to-goal values from any given location on the globe in addition to the action policy. This stochastic approach can also provide insights not accessible by deterministic methods; for example, one can evaluate variability and risk associated with different scenarios, rather than only viewing the expected outcome.

Wolf, Michael↗

Parameter identification using a creeping-random-search algorithm

A creeping-random-search algorithm is applied to different types of problems in the field of parameter identification. The studies are intended to demonstrate that a random-search algorithm can be applied successfully to these various problems, which often cannot be handled by conventional deterministic methods, and, also, to introduce methods that speed convergence to an extremal of the problem under investigation. Six two-parameter identification problems with analytic solutions are solved, and two application problems are discussed in some detail. Results of the study show that a modified version of the basic creeping-random-search algorithm chosen does speed convergence in comparison with the unmodified version. The results also show that the algorithm can successfully solve problems that contain limits on state or control variables, inequality constraints (both independent and dependent, and linear and nonlinear), or stochastic models.

Parrish, R. V.↗

On stochastic control and optimal measurement strategies

The control of stochastic dynamic systems is studied with particular emphasis on those which influence the quality or nature of the measurements which are made to effect control. Four main areas are discussed: (1) the meaning of stochastic optimality and the means by which dynamic programming may be applied to solve a combined control/measurement problem; (2) a technique by which it is possible to apply deterministic methods, specifically the minimum principle, to the study of stochastic problems; (3) the methods described are applied to linear systems with Gaussian disturbances to study the structure of the resulting control system; and (4) several applications are considered.

Kramer, L. C.↗

A new technique for predicting geosynchronous satellite collision probability

A new technique has been developed to predict the probability of an expired geosynchronous satellite colliding with an active satellite. This new technique employs deterministic methods for modeling the motion of satellites and applies statistical techniques to estimate the collision probability. The collision probability is used to estimate the expected time between collisions based on realistic distributions of expired and active satellites. The primary advantage of this new technique is that realistic distributions can be used in the prediction process instead of uniform distributions as has been used in previous techniques. The expected time between collisions based on a current NORAD database is estimated to be in the hundreds of years.

Mccormick, B.↗

Construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models using knowledge-based techniques

Over the past three decades, computer-based simulation models have proven themselves to be cost-effective alternatives to the more structured deterministic methods of systems analysis. During this time, many techniques, tools and languages for constructing computer-based simulation models have been developed. More recently, advances in knowledge-based system technology have led many researchers to note the similarities between knowledge-based programming and simulation technologies and to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based programming techniques to simulation modeling. The integration of conventional simulation techniques with knowledge-based programming techniques is discussed to provide a development environment for constructing knowledge-based simulation models. A comparison of the techniques used in the construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models and those used in the construction of knowledge-based systems provides the requirements for the environment. This leads to the design and implementation of a knowledge-based simulation development environment. These techniques were used in the construction of several knowledge-based simulation models including the Advanced Launch System Model (ALSYM).

Williams, M. Douglas↗

Determining design gust loads for nonlinear aircraft similarity between methods based on matched filter theory and on stochastic simulation

This is a work-in-progress paper. It explores the similarity between the results from two different analysis methods - one deterministic, the other stochastic - for computing maximized and time-correlated gust loads for nonlinear aircraft. To date, numerical studies have been performed using two different nonlinear aircraft configurations. These studies demonstrate that results from the deterministic analysis method are realizable in the stochastic analysis method.

Scott, Robert C.↗

Failure risk assessment by analysis and testing

The sources of information on which to base an evaluation of reliability or failure risk of an aerospace flight system are (1) experience from tests and flights and (2) engineering analysis. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace systems or components. Moreover, failure prediction by conventional, deterministic methods of engineering analysis can become arbitrary and subject to serious misinterpretation when uncertain or approximate information is used to establish analysis parameter values and to calibrate the accuracy of engineering models. The limitations of testing to evaluate failure risk are discussed, and a statistical approach which incorporates both engineering analysis and testing is presented.

Moore, N.↗

Improved Selection Of Structural-Load Safety Factors

More rational approach offers potential for optimization of design. Improvement in deterministic method of selection of structural-load safety factors makes possible to design structures more nearly optimum with respect to competing demands for both reliability and attributes detracting from reliability (principally lighter weight, smaller size, and lower cost).

Verderaime, Vincent↗

Navigation Algorithms for the SeaWiFS Mission

The navigation algorithms for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) were designed to meet the requirement of 1-pixel accuracy-a standard deviation (sigma) of 2. The objective has been to extract the best possible accuracy from the spacecraft telemetry and avoid the need for costly manual renavigation or geometric rectification. The requirement is addressed by postprocessing of both the Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and Attitude Control System (ACS) data in the spacecraft telemetry stream. The navigation algorithms described are separated into four areas: orbit processing, attitude sensor processing, attitude determination, and final navigation processing. There has been substantial modification during the mission of the attitude determination and attitude sensor processing algorithms. For the former, the basic approach was completely changed during the first year of the mission, from a single-frame deterministic method to a Kalman smoother. This was done for several reasons: a) to improve the overall accuracy of the attitude determination, particularly near the sub-solar point; b) to reduce discontinuities; c) to support the single-ACS-string spacecraft operation that was started after the first mission year, which causes gaps in attitude sensor coverage; and d) to handle data quality problems (which became evident after launch) in the direct-broadcast data. The changes to the attitude sensor processing algorithms primarily involved the development of a model for the Earth horizon height, also needed for single-string operation; the incorporation of improved sensor calibration data; and improved data quality checking and smoothing to handle the data quality issues. The attitude sensor alignments have also been revised multiple times, generally in conjunction with the other changes. The orbit and final navigation processing algorithms have remained largely unchanged during the mission, aside from refinements to data quality checking. Although further improvements are certainly possible, future evolution of the algorithms is expected to be limited to refinements of the methods presented here, and no substantial changes are anticipated.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

SpaceWire Protocol ID: What Does It Mean To You?

Spacewire is becoming a popular solution for satellite high-speed data buses because it is a simple standard that provides great flexibility for a wide range of system requirements. It is simple in packet format and protocol, allowing users to easily tailor their implementation for their specific application. Some of the attractive aspects of Spacewire that make it easy to implement also make it hard for future reuse. Protocol reuse is difficult because Spacewire does not have a defined mechanism to communicate with the higher layers of the protocol stack. This has forced users of Spacewire to define unique packet formats and define how these packets are to be processed. Each mission writes their own Interface Control Document (ICD) and tailors Spacewire for their specific requirements making reuse difficult. Part of the reason for this habit may be because engineers typically optimize designs for their own requirements in the absence of a standard. This is an inefficient use of project resources and costs more to develop missions. A new packet format for Spacewire has been defined as a solution for this problem. This new packet format is a compliment to the Spacewire standard that will support protocol development upon Spacewire. The new packet definition does not replace the current packet structure, i.e., does not make the standard obsolete, but merely extends the standard for those who want to develop protocols over Spacewire. The Spacewire packet is defined with the first part being the Destination Address, which may be one or more bytes. This is followed by the packet cargo, which is user defined. The cargo is truncated with an End-Of-Packet (EOP) marker. This packet structure offers low packet overhead and allows the user to define how the contents are to be formatted. It also provides for many different addressing schemes, which provide flexibility in the system. This packet flexibility is typically an attractive part of the Spacewire. The new extended packet format adds one new field to the packet that greatly enhances the capability of Spacewire. This new field called the Protocol Identifier (ID) is used to identify the packet contents and the associated processing for the packet. This feature along with the restriction in the packet format that uses the Protocol ID, allows a deterministic method of decoding packets that was not before possible. The first part of the packet is still the Destination Address, which still conforms to the original standard but with one restriction. The restriction is that the first byte seen at the destination by the user needs to be a logical address, independent of the addressing scheme used. The second field is defined as the Protocol ID, which is usually one byte in length. The packet cargo (user defined) follows the Protocol ID. After the packet cargo is the EOP, which defines the end of packet. The value of the Protocol ID is assigned by the Spacewire working group and the protocol description published for others to use. The development of Protocols for Spacewire is currently the area of greatest activity by the Spacewire working group. The first protocol definition by the working group has been completed and is now in the process of formal standardization. There are many other protocols in development for missions that have not yet received formal Protocol ID assignment, but even if the protocols are not formally assigned a value, this effort will provide synergism for future developments.

Rakow, Glenn↗

Signal-to-Noise Ratio Prediction and Validation for Space Shuttle GPS Flight Experiment

A deterministic method for Space Station Global Positioning System (GPS) Signal-To- Noise Ratio (SNR) predictions is proposed. The complex electromagnetic interactions between GPS antennas and surrounding Space Station structures are taken into account by computational electromagnetic technique. This computer simulator is capable of taking into account multipath effects from dynamically changed solar panels and thermal radiators. A comparison with recent collected Space Station GPS system flight experiment data is presented. The simulation results are in close agreement with flight data.

Hwu, Shian U.↗

Health Monitoring of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) Using Meandering Winding Magnetometer ((MWM(Registered Trademark)) Eddy Current Sensors

There are 3 mechanisms that affect the life of a COPV are: a) The age life of the overwrap; b) Cyclic fatigue of the metallic liner; c) Stress Rupture life. The first two mechanisms are understood through test and analysis. A COPV Stress Rupture is a sudden and catastrophic failure of the overwrap while holding at a stress level below the ultimate strength for an extended time. Currently there is no simple, deterministic method of determining the stress rupture life of a COPV, nor a screening technique to determine if a particular COPV is close to the time of a stress rupture failure. Conclusions: Demonstrated a correlation between MWM response and pressure or strain. Demonstrated the ability to monitor stress in COPV at different orientations and depths. FA41 provides best correlation with bottle pressure or stress.

Russell, Rick↗

Scope of Gradient and Genetic Algorithms in Multivariable Function Optimization

Global optimization of a multivariable function - constrained by bounds specified on each variable and also unconstrained - is an important problem with several real world applications. Deterministic methods such as the gradient algorithms as well as the randomized methods such as the genetic algorithms may be employed to solve these problems. In fact, there are optimization problems where a genetic algorithm/an evolutionary approach is preferable at least from the quality (accuracy) of the results point of view. From cost (complexity) point of view, both gradient and genetic approaches are usually polynomial-time; there are no serious differences in this regard, i.e., the computational complexity point of view. However, for certain types of problems, such as those with unacceptably erroneous numerical partial derivatives and those with physically amplified analytical partial derivatives whose numerical evaluation involves undesirable errors and/or is messy, a genetic (stochastic) approach should be a better choice. We have presented here the pros and cons of both the approaches so that the concerned reader/user can decide which approach is most suited for the problem at hand. Also for the function which is known in a tabular form, instead of an analytical form, as is often the case in an experimental environment, we attempt to provide an insight into the approaches focusing our attention toward accuracy. Such an insight will help one to decide which method, out of several available methods, should be employed to obtain the best (least error) output. *

Shaykhian, Gholam Ali↗

Air Contamination Quantification by FTIR with Gas Cell

Air quality is of utmost importance in environmental studies and has many industrial applications such as aviators grade breathing oxygen (ABO) for pilots and breathing air for fire fighters. Contamination is a major concern for these industries as identified in MIL-PRF-27210, CGA G-4.3, CGA G-7.1, and NFPA 1989. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) is a powerful tool that when combined with a gas cell has tremendous potential for gas contamination analysis. Current procedures focus mostly on GC-MS for contamination quantification. Introduction of this topic will be done through a comparison of the currently used deterministic methods for gas contamination with those of FTIR gas analysis. Certification of the mentioned standards through the ISOIEC 17065 certifying body A2LA will be addressed followed by an evaluation of quality information such as the determinations of linearity and the limits of detection and quantitation. Major interferences and issues arising from the use of the FTIR for accredited work with ABO and breathing air will be covered.

Freischlag, Jason↗