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BETO 2021 Peer Review - WBS 4.1.2.32: Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess current and/or prospective techno-economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions and their impact on the potential development trajectories of the bioenergy industry over time. Results from this project include identification of opportunities and constraints to industrial development, quantification of multiple metrics (energy, economic, environmental) and informing researchers, decision makers, and industry of the steps needed for a sustainable, nationwide biofuels industry. Analyses from this project enable the creation of a bioenergy industry by (1) inciting policy-makers to explore scenarios for nationwide biofuels production, identifying policy actions consistent with pathways for growth; (2) improving industry’s understanding of industry growth potential under different technology and investment conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, connecting students with careers that build the industry. One of the many modeling tools used in this project, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. We use models like the BSM to examine the implications of policies and incentives as well as their potential side-effects. The BSM uses a system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions and transitions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given industrial learning and the reaction of the investment community in the context of land availability, projected oil markets, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. Under expected market conditions, analyses using the BSM suggest that the biofuels industry may require significant external actions in the early years to thrive. Interventions that accelerate the industrial learning process (e.g. operation of pre-commercial and commercial facilities) have been identified as having strong influence in starting the growth of a commercial biofuel industry. Policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain in BSM foster the growth of the biofuels industry and production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Examining Infrasound Propagation at High Spatial Resolution Using a Nodal Seismic Array

Infrasound—acoustic waves in the atmosphere below 20 Hz—is a useful monitoring tool. Topography and atmospheric structure strongly control infrasound propagation, and at common source–receiver distances neither of these effects can be ignored when quantitative source constraints are sought. Detailed spatial measurements of the infrasound wavefield would inform propagation models and improve source estimates. However, the “large-N” deployment strategy now well-known in seismology has not yet been realized for infrasound studies. Here, we use the 900-node seismic array from the 2014 Imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) experiment as a proxy for a large-N infrasound network, by leveraging acoustic–seismic coupled arrivals. The active-source component of iMUSH consisted of 23 shallowly buried explosions around Mount Saint Helens volcano; these explosions produced epicentral infrasound recorded on the nodes. We find that the bulk presence of ground-coupled infrasound on the nodes is controlled by wind noise and source–receiver distance, with observed arrivals for eight explosions. Explosions with the most extensive coupling produce complex spatial waveform patterns across the array. These patterns are related to both topographic and atmospheric propagation effects, as well as spatially variable site (coupling) effects. We compare our observations to simple topographic diffraction and high-resolution wind advection models, and full-wave numerical simulations. We find strong spatial correlations between (a) coupled arrival strength and modeled topographic obstruction and (b) coupled arrival time and along-path winds. Our seismoacoustic analyses and results are applicable to other existing and future nodal seismic data sets and can expand the utility of such deployments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A review of antimicrobial implications for improving indoor air quality

The frequent outbreak of infectious respiratory diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 epidemic, raised the importance of indoor air quality. Removing microorganisms from indoor air is critical to improve indoor air quality. Numerous studies in recent years have been published on developing antimicrobial materials and technologies for antibacterial and antiviral applications. Further, this study critically reviews the recent antimicrobial advances for improving indoor air quality. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the antimicrobial mechanisms, development of materials, and deployment strategies, as well as a performance evaluation of the antimicrobial implication for indoor air quality. Furthermore, the challenges and opportunities of future research directions are also highlighted.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PanDA: Production and Distributed Analysis System

The Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system is a data-driven workload management system engineered to operate at the LHC data processing scale. The PanDA system provides a solution for scientific experiments to fully leverage their distributed heterogeneous resources, showcasing scalability, usability, flexibility, and robustness. The system has successfully proven itself through nearly two decades of steady operation in the ATLAS experiment, addressing the intricate requirements such as diverse resources distributed worldwide at about 200 sites, thousands of scientists analyzing the data remotely, the volume of processed data beyond the exabyte scale, dozens of scientific applications to support, and data processing over several billion hours of computing usage per year. PanDA’s flexibility and scalability make it suitable for the High Energy Physics community and wider science domains at the Exascale. Beyond High Energy Physics, PanDA’s relevance extends to other big data sciences, as evidenced by its adoption in the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the sPHENIX experiment. As the significance of advanced workflows continues to grow, PanDA has transformed into a comprehensive ecosystem, effectively tackling challenges associated with emerging workflows and evolving computing technologies. The paper discusses PanDA’s prominent role in the scientific landscape, detailing its architecture, functionality, deployment strategies, project management approaches, results, and evolution into an ecosystem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

dCache: The Storage System of Choice for Data-Intensive Applications

The ever-increasing volumes of data produced by modern scientific facilities like EuXFEL and LHC put significant stress on data management infrastructure operated by laboratories and research centers. The challenges to be addressed span the entire data life cycle, from ingest and efficient data analysis to long-term preservation, typically involving large tape libraries. dCache, a storage system developed in collaboration between the Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, and Nordic e-Infrastructure Collaboration (NeIC), is designed to manage a large number of disk servers and to facilitate transparent data migration to and from archival storage. Its multifaceted approach offers a unified method to support a variety of scientific use cases with the same storage infrastructure, including high-throughput data ingest, data sharing over wide area networks, efficient access from HPC clusters, and long-term data preservation on tertiary storage. Initially developed for high energy physics (HEP) experiments, dCache is now used by various scientific communities, including astrophysics, biomedical research, and life sciences, each having specific requirements. This paper presents architecture, deployment strategies, performance and scalability enhancements, and recent advancements in dCache addressing the needs of scientific communities. Finally, we touch on the development and release process, ensuring the software’s high quality.

DCache↗

Variations in cell wall traits impact saccharification potential of Salix famelica and Salix eriocephala

Increasing global populations, finite arable land, and the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere are driving the search for bio-based alternatives to the petroleum-derived fuels and chemicals that underpin the global economy. With rapid growth rates, a propensity for coppicing, and a wide geographic range across Canada, native shrub willows (Salix spp.) are an attractive source of low-input, high-volume biomass. To date, most willow research has focused on increasing yields and improving cropping systems, while comparatively little work has been done to assess the intrinsic diversity in cell wall traits and bioenergy potential. In this study, we characterized the cell wall composition and wood ultrastructure of 338 xylem samples from two Canadian willow species, Salix famelica and Salix eriocephala, harvested from a common garden experimental plot. Lignin content ranged from 17.5–25.1% in S. famelica and 18.6–24.3% in S. eriocephala. Following alkali pretreatment with 62.5 mM NaOH at 90 °C for 3 h and a 70-h enzymatic digestion with Accellerase 1000, glucose release ranged from 23.0–38.9 wt% in S. famelica and from 20.5–37.7 wt% in S. eriocephala, while xylose release ranged from 9.4–14.9% in S. famelica and from 9.5–15.2% in S. eriocephala. Here, partial least squares regression modelling showed that lignin content and composition were important negative regulators of glucose release. Overall, this work highlights the innate variability in cell wall traits of native willows and identifies potential genotypes that should be considered in future breeding and deployment strategies for Canadian bioenergy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Earthquake detection in a simulated lunar regolith using distributed acoustic sensing

Current models of inner lunar geology have largely been inferred from the seismic experiments and observations performed during the Apollo missions that comprised a relatively small number of seismic instruments. Refining constraints on fundamental lunar relationships such as crust-mantle and mantle-core boundaries in the future will require seismic arrays spanning larger epicentral distances. A promising technology for installing dense seismic arrays with minimal human effort is distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), an approach that allows a single length of fiber optic cable to act as hundreds or thousands of sensors when coupled with a DAS interrogator. While terrestrial uses of DAS technology for seismic monitoring rely on burying the cable to maximize fidelity of seismic signal transmission to the fiber, digging meters of trench to bury optical fiber on lunar or planetary surfaces is logistically infeasible. To evaluate DAS signal attenuation due to surface deployment of cable in lunar regolith, we completed earthquake detection analyses that evaluated the sensitivity of an optic-fiber DAS system to seismic signals at different burial depths. We deployed a single-mode fiber in a 10-m open-bottom wooden box filled with a lunar regolith simulant (LRS) with fiber buried at different depths within the LRS and recorded signals for four regional and local earthquakes. The results were used to identify and evaluate signal attenuation in surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber in the LRS. Burial depth responses to active-source signals were also evaluated similar to previous studies characterizing DAS sensitivity of surface-deployed fiber. Atmospheric noise was minimal as the cable was deployed in an indoor environment; however, where observed, atmospheric and anthropogenic noise was filtered out using the same bandpass filtering used to identify earthquake events. We found that signal attenuation of the surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber was relatively high in active-source experiments but was not consistently observed in earthquake signals. That burial depth is not highly correlated to attenuation of the observed earthquake signals indicates that in a noise-limited environment, placing DAS-interrogated fiber directly at the regolith surface may be a promising deployment strategy to consider for sensing remote seismic signals during lunar exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Roadmap for Deployment of Modularized Hydrothermal Liquefaction: Understanding the Impacts of Industry Learning, Optimal Plant Scale, and Delivery Costs on Biofuel Pricing

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising technology for converting abundant organic wastes into fuels. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEAs) of HTL have been used to estimate the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel products, but these analyses often assume a bespoke plant design where each plant operates under unique process conditions and neglect transportation costs. However, transportation costs must be included in realistic TEAs, and further, a mass-produced fixed-scale modular plant design approach may be more effective than case-by-case plant design, provided that there is sufficient market capacity to benefit from modularization. This study estimates fuel price behavior in the presence of transportation costs and benefits stemming from modular plant design. This analysis indicates that a modular process capable of handling 60 dry tons per day (DTPD) is optimal, resulting in a ~25% reduction in MFSP (from $4.70/GGE, fully upgraded) at complete market feedstock utilization compared with case-by-case design. The associated cost reductions are attributable to learning benefits and modularization. Several HTL deployment “roadmaps” are then explored, with each roadmap consisting of different periods of case-by-case design followed by adoption of a modularized approach. A period of nonmodular industry growth up to market saturation of ~7% followed by implementation of modular plant design strikes a balance between the investment risk and learned cost reductions associated with modular plant design. However, if bespoke plants built during this period of nonmodular growth saturate more than 23% of available feedstock, learned cost reductions are significantly diminished. Here, this study points to the potential benefits of modularized and decentralized waste-to-energy processes when the modularization follows an optimal deployment strategy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Exploiting Kubernetes to Simplify the Deployment and Management of the Multi-purpose CMS Pilot Job Factory

GlideinWMS, a widely utilized workload management system in high-energy physics (HEP) research, serves as the backbone for efficient job provisioning across distributed computing resources. It is utilized by various experiments and organizations, including CMS, OSG, Dune, and FIFE, to create HTCondor pools as large as 600k cores. In particular, a shared factory service historically deployed at UCSD has been configured to interface with more than 500 routes to compute clusters. As part of our team’s initiative to modernize infrastructure and enhance scalability, we undertook the migration of the GlideinWMS factory service into the Kubernetes environment. Leveraging the flexibility and orchestration capabilities of Kubernetes, we successfully deployed the factory service within the OSG Tiger Kubernetes cluster. The major benefits Kubernetes gives us is it streamlines the management and monitoring of the factory infrastructure, and improves fault tolerance through its resilient deployment strategies. Through this case study, we aim to share insights, challenges, and best practices encountered during the migration process. Our experience underscores the benefits of embracing containerization and Kubernetes orchestration for HEP computing infrastructure, paving the way for scalability and resilience in distributed computing environments.

Dost, Jeffrey Michael [UC, San Diego (main)]↗

Probing the atmospheric boundary layer with integrated remote-sensing platforms during the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) campaign

The American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) collaboration is an observational-based field campaign in northern Oklahoma intended to analyze the potential influence of onshore wind farms and their collective wakes on wind power production, turbine structural loads, and on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Focusing on the ABL effects, the University of Oklahoma and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory collected continuous high-resolution kinematic and thermodynamic profile measurements during 2022 and Summer 2023. The deployment strategy for these campaigns is detailed first, followed by an initial comparison of data from two sites in the AWAKEN domain: a near-farm site to examine collective wake impacts on the ABL, and a far-field site remaining outside the wind farm-waked region. Here, we summarize the datasets available and demonstrate the benefits of these observations and multiple value-added products (VAPs) for investigation of ABL features observed during AWAKEN. We also highlight examples of preliminary analyses, including ABL height detection and nocturnal low-level jet examination, which are produced using novel VAPs based on optimal estimation to retrieve deeper Doppler lidar wind profiles than previously resolved, along with their uncertainty. By including the near-farm and far-field site in these analyses, we identified a pattern of stronger lower-atmospheric mixing at the near-farm site than the far-field site, motivating deeper investigation into the relationship between wind farms and general ABL characteristics. Future analysis will delve deeper into this relationship by examining other ABL characteristics, such as atmospheric stability and convection.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Storm Safari in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO

In this article, we provide an overview of the experimental design, execution, education and public outreach, data collection, and initial scientific results from the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. RELAMPAGO was a major field campaign conducted in the Córdoba and Mendoza provinces in Argentina and western Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil in 2018–19 that involved more than 200 scientists and students from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. This campaign was motivated by the physical processes and societal impacts of deep convection that frequently initiates in this region, often along the complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba and Andes, and often grows rapidly upscale into dangerous storms that impact society. Observed storms during the experiment produced copious hail, intense flash flooding, extreme lightning flash rates, and other unusual lightning phenomena, but few tornadoes. The five distinct scientific foci of RELAMPAGO—convection initiation, severe weather, upscale growth, hydrometeorology, and lightning and electrification—are described, as are the deployment strategies to observe physical processes relevant to these foci. The campaign’s international cooperation, forecasting efforts, and mission planning strategies enabled a successful data collection effort. In addition, the legacy of RELAMPAGO in South America, including extensive multinational education, public outreach, and social media data gathering associated with the campaign, is summarized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Foldy: An open-source web application for interactive protein structure analysis

Foldy is a cloud-based application that allows non-computational biologists to easily utilize advanced AI-based structural biology tools, including AlphaFold and DiffDock. With many deployment options, it can be employed by individuals, labs, universities, and companies in the cloud without requiring hardware resources, but it can also be configured to utilize locally available computers. Foldy enables scientists to predict the structure of proteins and complexes up to 6000 amino acids with AlphaFold, visualize Pfam annotations, and dock ligands with AutoDock Vina and DiffDock. In our manuscript, we detail Foldy’s interface design, deployment strategies, and optimization for various user scenarios. We demonstrate its application through case studies including rational enzyme design and analyzing proteins with domains of unknown function. Furthermore, we compare Foldy’s interface and management capabilities with other open and closed source tools in the field, illustrating its practicality in managing complex data and computation tasks. Our manuscript underlines the benefits of Foldy as a day-to-day tool for life science researchers, and shows how Foldy can make modern tools more accessible and efficient.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Closing the Gap: A Global Perspective [Slides]

Against the backdrop of negotiations at COP26, a group of internationally recognised research and technology organisations launched a collaboration, with the intention to identify the national and international technology-led opportunities to decarbonise fossil fuel basins globally. This study will evidence the opportunities available to players across the entire energy ecosystem. Governments and funders will be able to spread costs and investment risk, energy companies will develop a greater understanding of the global transition and possible opportunities to develop pilot projects worldwide, and there will be greater incentive to the supply chain once they are aware of the global applicability of certain technologies and technology solutions. Through the analysis and comparison of national energy systems, a number of Net Zero Deployment Strategies and Technology Priorities have been identified, that are shaping the direction of the construction of net zero integrated energy systems globally. These have been considered to design Recommendations for International Collaboration to accelerate the global energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Stacked Greenfield and Brownfield ROZ Fairways in the Illinois Basin Geo-Laboratory: Co-Optimization of EOR and Associated CO 2 Storage

Residual oil zones (ROZs) are economically viable targets for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR); thick, carbonate ROZs in the San Andres Formation in the Wasson Field of the Permian Basin are an example. Incremental oil produced from CO 2 -EOR can be carbon negative via associated storage of injected CO 2 . Given the regional extent of ROZ fairways and generally higher net utilization of CO 2 (compared to conventional CO 2 -EOR), ROZs provide the opportunity for significant carbon neutral to carbon negative oil production with associated CO 2 storage, and therefore should be a priority target for exploration. However, ROZs have not been widely recognized or identified due to poor or no conventional oil production. Hence, in places like the Illinois Basin (ILB), exploratory analyses are required to recognize the existence of an ROZ. As part of this study, four formations were selected for detailed regional characterization and analysis: Carper Sandstone (part of the Borden Siltstone), Tar Springs Sandstone, Cypress Sandstone, and Middle Devonian (Geneva Dolomite and associated Dutch Creek Sandstone). The four formations underwent regional geological characterization to develop a regional geologic framework for the ROZs and their overlying seals. Findings of this study are supported by data from two field laboratory sites, one with stacked greenfield ROZs and the other with a stacked complex that includes a brownfield ROZ and depleted conventional reservoirs. The field laboratory sites were used to collect data and conduct tests to validate ROZ detection methodologies and identify economic field-deployable strategies to co-optimize CO 2 -EOR and associated storage in stacked ROZs. Findings from these field sites were extrapolated to characterize the basin-wide stacked ROZ fairway resource.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Optimization of Spirulina for biomanufacturing and the delivery of protein therapeutics

Lumen Bioscience has developed a novel cyanobacterial platform that enormously decreases the cost of pharmaceuticals used to prevent and treat illnesses. Arthrospira platensis (spirulina), is a photosynthetic microorganism that has been consumed as a dietary supplement for centuries in part because of its high protein content. Commercial cultivation operations have matured over the last 50 years to allow large-scale cultivation in outdoor ponds. Lumen recently discovered methods that transform this commercially important cyanobacterium into a genetically tractable platform for bioengineering. The high protein accumulation in spirulina makes it an ideal chassis for heterologous protein expression, and centuries of safe human consumption suggest its utility as an administration vehicle for biologic drugs. Lumen can express a broad range of recombinant proteins in spirulina and has developed manufacturing processes and strains to mucosally deliver bioactive proteins to treat and/or prevent disease. For example, Lumen has produced an oral cocktail of dried whole-cell spirulina biomass, containing 3 toxin-neutralizing antibodies and 1 endolysin, that is efficacious in a preclinical in vivo models of C. difficile infection. Lumen has also demonstrated that intranasal administration of a spirulina-manufactured neutralizing antibody can prevent disease by a respiratory pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, in a hamster model. Lumen’s current pipeline includes therapeutics to treat or prevent C. difficile infection, COVID-19, inflammatory bowel disease, cardiometabolic disease, and traveler’s diarrhea. Lumen deploys strategies to maximize the expression of these therapeutics for optimal dose sizing, a key limiting factor with past food crop-based expression systems. Spirulina can express exogenous proteins at unusually high levels (>15% of dry weight) but reaching this maximum value requires optimization of multiple interacting factors. We describe our current statistics design of experiments approach that optimizes these factors with minimal replicates. This maximizes exogenous protein expression allowing Lumen to generate spirulina-based therapeutics for a rapidly expanding range of medical uses.

Heinnickel, Mark↗

Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Reliability, Resilience, and Location on Electric Vehicle Adoption

While the majority of electric vehicle (EV) charging events in the United States occur at home, issues with public charging stations are consistently found to be a top reason that potential EV buyers do not purchase an EV, demonstrating that both EVSE reliability and availability impacts EV adoption. This report explores multiple parameters that impact EVSE reliability and deployment, which in turn impact EV sales. These include extreme weather, codes and standards, region (urban vs. rural), and grid network type. Grid reliability was not found to impact EV adoption. The relationships between EV station reliability, station resilience, grid resilience, and EV adoption are largely outside the scope of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) and other vehicle adoption models, so the methodology of this report is varied. Section 2 sets the baseline for infrastructure reliability, user satisfaction, and maintenance practices. Section 3 explores the ways that electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) reliability impacts the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption. Section 4 shows how geographical categories such as urban, rural, large grid, off-grid, or microgrid can be helpful in EVSE deployment strategies, as well as how the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption differs among these categories. Section 5 investigates the impacts of grid reliability and infrastructure resilience on EV adoption. Finally, Section 6 reverses the perspective to examine the impact that EVs and EVSE have on grid resilience and reliability. As recent funding initiatives result in an expansion of public chargers across the United States, as well as an increase in the uptime of existing chargers, EV adoption will likely grow.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Nuclear Thermal Energy Storage Configurations for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply: Conceptual Study and Engineering Designs

The industries examined in this report primarily rely on moderate-temperature heat provided by gas- or coal-fired boilers and combined heat and power (CHP) plants, delivered through standard process steam systems. High-temperature energy demands are often industry-specific and typically exceed the capabilities of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). While it is technically feasible to replace process steam from fossil-based heat sources with nuclear energy, certain industries, such as methanol production and pulp and paper, face technoeconomic challenges in integrating nuclear energy without major changes or a technological shift. This is mainly due to the limited external energy demand remaining after the use of internal byproducts, waste heat recovery, and simple efficiency improvements. Achieving full decarbonization of these processes with nuclear energy would require significant technological advancements, involving experimental technology and substantial investments, making widespread adoption in existing industrial plants unlikely in the near term. This study reviews TES options in the context of enabling a flexible CHP supply while maintaining a steady nuclear heat input. Heat storage systems that interface between the reactor primary fluid and the CHP system offer superior performance and flexibility. Specifically, steam extraction downstream of the reheater with a two-tank molten-salt TES appears as the best solution regarding thermodynamic system benefits and system drawbacks. Using selected system configurations, a conceptual design of an industrial energy park was developed for industries with varying energy demands, such as steel production plants utilizing electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and chemical plants, as well as for those with constant energy demands, like petroleum refineries. This design highlights the capabilities of TES and explores its potential business cases. The study also conceptually develops the potential for integrating additional energy sources with nuclear systems through the implementation of TES. The potential of the HTGR-TES-CHP system was also evaluated considering key uncertainties such as industrial demand profiles, external grid access availability, and eligible tax credit levels, using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network. Sensitivity of net present value to these uncertainties was analyzed to determine the optimal number of nuclear reactors (and CHP systems) and the suitable TES capacity. The results were interpreted from a decision-maker’s perspective, focusing on three key areas: deployment strategy (oversized units vs. undersized units with TES support), industrial process characteristics (thermal-intensive single profiles vs. electricity-intensive combined profiles), and operational goals (maximizing profits vs. minimizing natural gas (NG) consumption or external grid dependence). The optimization results indicate that the HTGR-TES-CHP system significantly reduces reliance on NG boilers for individual industrial processes by 9-60% (in NG capacity factor), with an average reduction of 38%, compared to standalone NG boiler operation case (Business As Usual [BAU]). For combined industrial processes, the reduction ranges from 37-77%, with an average of 60%. Additionally, the system greatly reduces dependence on external grids. In meeting industrial electrical demands, a 33-100% self-sufficient internal electricity supply is achieved for single industrial process, with an average of 74%, compared to the BAU scenario, where 100% of electricity is imported. For combined processes, 35-100% of internal electricity demands are met by the reactor, with an average of 73%. At last, the relative NG price levels at which the proposed HTGR-TES-CHP system can cost-effectively enter the market currently dominated by existing NG boilers were estimated. For a moderate HTGR CAPEX level ($\$$2500/kWth, $\$$6329/kWe), the analysis suggests that NG prices must be 2.5 to 7 times higher than HTGR variable operating and maintenance costs for single industrial process, and 5.5 to 9.5 times higher for a combined process scenario. Tax credit modeling shows that the Investment Tax Credit significantly reduces the price threshold needed to break even, making the system competitive with NG boilers in certain cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗