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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Psychosocial value of space simulation for extended spaceflight

There have been over 60 studies of Earth-bound activities that can be viewed as simulations of manned spaceflight. These analogs have involved Antarctic and Arctic expeditions, submarines and submersible simulators, land-based simulators, and hypodynamia environments. None of these analogs has accounted for all the variables related to extended spaceflight (e.g., microgravity, long-duration, heterogeneous crews), and some of the stimulation conditions have been found to be more representative of space conditions than others. A number of psychosocial factors have emerged from the simulation literature that correspond to important issues that have been reported from space. Psychological factors include sleep disorders, alterations in time sense, transcendent experiences, demographic issues, career motivation, homesickness, and increased perceptual sensitivities. Psychiatric factors include anxiety, depression, psychosis, psychosomatic symptoms, emotional reactions related to mission stage, asthenia, and postflight personality, and marital problems. Finally, interpersonal factors include tension resulting from crew heterogeneity, decreased cohesion over time, need for privacy, and issues involving leadership roles and lines of authority. Since future space missions will usually involve heterogeneous crews working on complicated objectives over long periods of time, these features require further study. Socio-cultural factors affecting confined crews (e.g., language and dialect, cultural differences, gender biases) should be explored in order to minimize tension and sustain performance. Career motivation also needs to be examined for the purpose of improving crew cohesion and preventing subgrouping, scapegoating, and territorial behavior. Periods of monotony and reduced activity should be addressed in order to maintain morale, provide meaningful use of leisure time, and prevent negative consequences of low stimulation, such as asthenia and crew member withdrawal. Leadership roles and lines of authority need to be studied further to understand the factors leading to status leveling, leadership competition, and role confusion. Finally, the relationship between crews and ground personnel should be characterized in order to minimize the displacement of anger and tension to the outside, to counter the effects of inter-group miscommunications, and to develop support strategies that can help to counter in-group/out-group conflicts. Ground-based space simulations still have a role to play in terms of understanding the impact of these factors and ways of dealing with them. In particular, issues involving language, cultural differences, gender biases, career motivation, monotonous conditions, use of free time, leadership, lines of authority, and the relationship between crews and outside monitoring personnel need to be further characterized and examined under controlled conditions. Until such time as these factors can be studied directly in space, simulations provide an opportunity to learn more about these psychosocial issues and to plan ways of minimizing their negative consequences during actual space missions.

NASA Discipline Number 00-00↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1987

An investigation of transitional management problems for the NSTS

Analysis and recommendations were provided to the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) on managing the transition from a research and development (R/D) structure to an operational structure. Summaries of published literature on the theory and applications of transition, or change management, and the results of interviews with additional industry personnel whose organizations either have gone through or are now going through change are contained. The issues of flight rates and the flight decision are addressed. The use of a computer simulation model to analyze the effect of varying different parameters on the flight rate was also discussed. The issue of NASA's changing demographics was examined and why this may be a cause for concern. The impact of the whole shuttle system structure on the Challenger accident was presented along with the highlights of the Rogers Commission Report. The proposed reorganization of the NSTS management structure is discussed and how this transition from R/D to operations can be performed.

Hunsucker, John L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing segmentation fairness through curriculum learning and progressive loss: a centralized and federated perspective on radiograph analysis

Bias in medical image segmentation can lead to unequal performance across demographic subgroups, raising concerns about fairness and reliability in clinical AI systems. While deep learning models have achieved high segmentation accuracy, ensuring equitable performance across race and gender remains a significant challenge, particularly in privacy-sensitive healthcare environments. This study investigates fairness-aware medical image segmentation for hip and knee radiographs using deep learning models evaluated in both centralized and Federated Learning (FL) settings. We introduce Curriculum Learning (CL) strategies and Progressive Loss (PL) functions to regulate sample difficulty during training. In addition, we propose two novel fairness-oriented federated learning algorithms, Federated Intersection over Union (FedIoU) and Federated Intersection over Union with Outlier Analysis (FedIoUoutlier). Experiments are conducted using multiple segmentation backbones and simulated multi-site data partitions derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. Model performance is evaluated using Intersection over Union (IoU), IoU standard deviation, Skewed Error Ratio (SER), and Min-Max Disparity across race and gender subgroups. Statistical significance was verified using paired t-tests to compare per-sample IoU performance against baseline configurations. Across both hip and knee segmentation tasks, curriculum learning and progressive loss strategies consistently improved segmentation accuracy and reduced demographic performance disparities in centralized training. In federated settings, fairness-aware aggregation further enhanced performance. Notably, FedIoUoutlier combined with balanced curriculum learning and tiered progressive loss achieved the highest mean IoU while yielding the lowest SER and Min-Max Disparity, indicating improved fairness without sacrificing accuracy. In several configurations, federated models matched or exceeded the performance of optimized centralized models, with statistically significant improvements in per-sample IoU over baseline configurations. The results demonstrate that structured training strategies and fairness-aware federated aggregation can jointly improve accuracy, stability, and demographic fairness in medical image segmentation. By integrating curriculum learning, progressive loss, and novel FL algorithms, this work provides a practical pathway toward equitable and privacy-preserving AI systems for medical imaging.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

ResStock Technical Reference Documentation (V.3.3.0)

ResStock™ is the best-in-class building stock energy model for simulating and publishing energy use, utility bills, and greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector of the U.S. ResStock answers two primary questions: (1) How is energy used in the U.S. residential building stock? and (2) What is the timeseries aggregate impact of energy technologies? Specifically, ResStock quantifies energy use across geographical locations, demographic groups, building types, fuels, end uses, and time of day. Additionally, it details the impact of efficiency or electrification measures: total changes in the amount of energy used by measure; where or in what use cases efficiency or electrification upgrade measures save energy; when or at what times of day savings occur; and which building stock or demographic segments have the biggest savings potential. This model, and the datasets it produces, are foundational to identifying pathways to affordable and equitable decarbonization of the U.S. residential buildings sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1994

Automation technology using Geographic Information System (GIS)

Airport Surface Movement Area is but one of the actions taken to increase the capacity and safety of existing airport facilities. The System Integration Branch (SIB) has designed an integrated system consisting of an electronic moving display in the cockpit, and includes display of taxi routes which will warn controllers and pilots of the position of other traffic and warning information automatically. Although, this system has in test simulation proven to be accurate and helpful; the initial process of obtaining an airport layout of the taxi-routes and designing each of them is a very tedious and time-consuming process. Other methods of preparing the display maps are being researched. One such method is the use of the Geographical Information System (GIS). GIS is an integrated system of computer hardware and software linking topographical, demographic and other resource data that is being referenced. The software can support many areas of work with virtually unlimited information compatibility due to the system's open architecture. GIS will allow us to work faster with increased efficiency and accuracy while providing decision making capabilities. GIS is currently being used at the Langley Research Center with other applications and has been validated as an accurate system for that task. GIS usage for our task will involve digitizing aerial photographs of the topology for each taxi-runway and identifying each position according to its specific spatial coordinates. The information currently being used can be integrated with the GIS system, due to its ability to provide a wide variety of user interfaces. Much more research and data analysis will be needed before this technique will be used, however we are hopeful this will lead to better usage of man-power and technological capabilities for the future.

Brooks, Cynthia L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmic Pairs: A DESI Census of Dual and Offset AGN as Precursors to Massive Black Hole Binaries

We present a systematic census of dual and offset active galactic nuclei (AGN) using spectroscopic data from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). After correcting for observational systematics, our final sample contains $>7,000$ dual AGN and 27,000 galaxy pairs containing one AGN over the redshift range $0 \lesssim z \lesssim 3.6$. This sample expands the known dual AGN sample by $\sim 1-2$ orders of magnitude at $0.2 \lesssim z \lesssim 0.4$, includes $\sim 50$ dwarf dual AGN candidates in a regime where only a handful were previously known, and triples the census at $z>2$. Dual AGN are preferentially found at small separations, consistent with merger-driven triggering of AGN activity. The two members of a pair differ in their star formation response: the more massive (primary) host changes little with separation, while the less massive (secondary) lies $\sim 0.3$ dex above matched inactive and one-AGN companions at the same projected separation in main-sequence offset. Using ASTRID simulations, we predict that the fraction of DESI dual AGN whose central black holes will merge by $z \sim 0$ increases with redshift, reaching $\sim 76\%$ by $z \sim 2$, while the fraction producing LISA-detectable mergers peaks at $\sim 37\%$ near $z \sim 0.9$. These results provide the largest uniformly selected spectroscopic sample of kpc-scale dual and offset AGN candidates from a single survey, connecting their host-galaxy and AGN demographics to the progenitor population of massive black hole mergers detectable by LISA.

Dadiani, Ekaterine [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:000↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗
DOE OSTI2026

pyFLANK, a graph neural network based null distribution inference model for F ST outlier detection

Detecting genomic regions under selection is essential for understanding how populations adapt to different environments, yet it remains challenging due to the confounding effects of demographic history and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Fixation index (F ST ) is a widely used statistic to identify genomic regions under adaptation. However, identifying genes under selection by defining F ST outliers often remains challenging, owing to confounding effects of underlying demographic history. Traditional methods assume independence among loci and rely on simple demographic models, while newer models perform much better but are computationally expensive and not easily scalable. Here, we present pyFLANK, an open-source and automated Python implementation which detects F ST outliers using a null distribution inferred from quasi-independent loci. Our tool integrates three approaches to identify loci obeying a null distribution: graph neural network (GNN) inference, linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based inference, and user-defined input. Because pyFLANK uses GNN-based inference of quasi-independent loci, it yields a more accurate null model with less need for user parameter input. In simulation experiments, pyFLANK achieved lower false positive rates than current methods while maintaining comparable detection power, indicating that its refined null model better distinguishes true adaptive loci from background variation. The GNN-based model, in particular, detected additional loci associated with phenotypic variance that were not identified by existing methods. Assessments of simulation and real data from different species demonstrate that pyFLANK achieves lower false positive rates compared with other commonly used F ST outlier detectors, while maintaining comparable detection power and excellent computational performance, providing a robust and user-friendly tool for identifying loci under divergent selection. It extends existing F ST outlier frameworks by incorporating explicit LD-aware strategies for null model calibration. The method is intended as a practical and scalable complement to existing genome scan approaches.

FST↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

Abstract Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that remain inaccessible to current surveys, demonstrating that the apparent paucity of subkiloparsec systems in COSMOS-Web is primarily a consequence of observational selection rather than an intrinsic absence. Following each simulated dual to coalescence, we show that DAGN are effective tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30%–70% merge within ≲1 Gyr, and 20%–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Duals observable with Roman and Lynx are the progenitors of ∼10%–50% of low-redshift LISA sources and contribute ∼30% of the PTA-band stochastic gravitational-wave background. We further identify massive green-valley galaxies hosting moderate-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN), together with massive star-forming galaxies containing bright quasars at z > 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.

Chen, Nianyi [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik;↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗