Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “demand modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

TASKILLAN - A simulation to predict the validity of multiple resource models of aviation workload

The extent to which flight simulation models of increasing complexity are successful in predicting pilot performance was investigated using four models of increasing sophistication addressed by the TASKILLAN (for task skill analysis) computer-generated helicopter simulation. At the simplest level of complexity was the total task model (Model T), followed by the demand model (Model D), the undifferentiated capacity model (Model U), and, ultimately, by the multiple resources model (Model M), which is at the highest level of sophistication addressed by the TASKILLAN project. It was found that the correlations between variables were higher with the two more sophisticated models (U and M), which impose a penalty for increased difficulty in time-sharing. The performance prediction was best with the Model U, while the best predictors of subjective measures were models D and M.

Larish, Inge A.↗

Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction

A methodology is presented for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. Coal reserve data and the cost of operating a mine are used to obtain the minimum acceptable selling price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production. Based on this information, market supply curves can be generated. Demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. The results show a growth in the size of the markets for compliance and low sulphur coal regions. A significant rise in the real price of coal is not expected even by the year 2000. The model predicts heavy reliance on mines with thick seams, larger block size and deep overburden.

Terasawa, K. L.↗

Using Sensor Web Processes and Protocols to Assimilate Satellite Data into a Forecast Model

The goal of the Sensor Management Applied Research Technologies (SMART) On-Demand Modeling project is to develop and demonstrate the readiness of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) capabilities to integrate both space-based Earth observations and forecast model output into new data acquisition and assimilation strategies. The project is developing sensor web-enabled processing plans to assimilate Atmospheric Infrared Sounding (AIRS) satellite temperature and moisture retrievals into a regional Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model over the southeastern United States.

Goodman, H. Michael↗

Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.

Ng, Hok K.↗

Integration of Advanced Concepts and Vehicles Into the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Introduction, Key Messages, and Vehicle Attributes - Volume 1

Raytheon, in partnership with NASA, is leading the way in ensuring that the future air transportation continues to be a key driver of economic growth and stability and that this system provides an environmentally friendly, safe, and effective means of moving people and goods. A Raytheon-led team of industry and academic experts, under NASA contract NNA08BA47C, looked at the potential issues and impact of introducing four new classes of advanced aircraft into the next generation air transportation system -- known as NextGen. The study will help determine where NASA should further invest in research to support the safe introduction of these new air vehicles. Small uncrewed or unmanned aerial systems (SUAS), super heavy transports (SHT) including hybrid wing body versions (HWB), very light jets (VLJ), and supersonic business jets (SSBJ) are the four classes of aircraft that we studied. Understanding each vehicle's business purpose and strategy is critical to assessing the feasibility of new aircraft operations and their impact on NextGen's architecture. The Raytheon team used scenarios created by aviation experts that depict vehicles in year 2025 operations along with scripts or use cases to understand the issues presented by these new types of vehicles. The information was then mapped into the Joint Planning and Development Office's (JPDO s) Enterprise Architecture to show how the vehicles will fit into NextGen's Concept of Operations. The team also identified significant changes to the JPDO's Integrated Work Plan (IWP) to optimize the NextGen vision for these vehicles. Using a proven enterprise architecture approach and the JPDO s Joint Planning Environment (JPE) web site helped make the leap from architecture to planning efficient, manageable and achievable. Very Light Jets flying into busy hub airports -- Supersonic Business Jets needing to climb and descend rapidly to achieve the necessary altitude Super-heavy cargo planes requiring the shortest common flight path -- are just a few of the potential new operations in the future National Airspace System. To assess the impact of these new scenarios on overall national airspace operations, the Raytheon team used the capabilities of a suite of tools such as NASA's Airspace Concepts Evaluation System (ACES), the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS), FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), Intelligent Automations Kinematic Trajectory Generator (KTG) and the Aviation Safety Risk Model (ASRM). Detailed metroplex modeling, surface delay models for super heavy transports, prioritized routing and corridors for supersonics business jets, and VLJ demand models are some of the models developed by the Raytheon team to study the effect of operating these new vehicles in the future NAS. Using this suite of models, several trade studies were conducted to evaluate these effects in terms of delays, equity in access, safety, and the environment. Looking at the impact of each vehicle, a number of critical issues were identified. The Raytheon team concluded that strict compliance to NextGen's 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) management will be required to accommodate these vehicles unique operations and increased number of flights in the future air space system. The next section provides a discussion of this and the other key findings from our study.

Zellweger, Andres↗

Modeling the internal combustion engine

A flexible and computationally economical model of the internal combustion engine was developed for use on large digital computer systems. It is based on a system of ordinary differential equations for cylinder-averaged properties. The computer program is capable of multicycle calculations, with some parameters varying from cycle to cycle, and has restart capabilities. It can accommodate a broad spectrum of reactants, permits changes in physical properties, and offers a wide selection of alternative modeling functions without any reprogramming. It readily adapts to the amount of information available in a particular case because the model is in fact a hierarchy of five models. The models range from a simple model requiring only thermodynamic properties to a complex model demanding full combustion kinetics, transport properties, and poppet valve flow characteristics. Among its many features the model includes heat transfer, valve timing, supercharging, motoring, finite burning rates, cycle-to-cycle variations in air-fuel ratio, humid air, residual and recirculated exhaust gas, and full combustion kinetics.

Zeleznik, F. J.↗

The impact of changing technology on the demand for air transportation

Demand models for air transportation that are sensitive to the impact of changing technology were developed. The models are responsive to potential changes in technology, and to changing economic, social, and political factors as well. In addition to anticipating the wide differences in the factors influencing the demand for long haul and short haul air travel, the models were designed to clearly distinguish among the unique features of these markets.

Kneafsey, J. T.↗

The Market Demand for Air Transportation

Although the presentation will touch upon the areas of market for air transportation, the theoretical foundations of the demand function, the demand models, and model selection and evaluation, the emphasis of the presentation will be on a qualitative description of the factors affecting the demand for air transportation. The presentation will rely heavily on the results of market surveys carried out by the Port of New York Authority, the University of Michigan, and Census of Transportation.

Taneja, N.↗

The Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tool

Throughout U.S. history, our nation has generally enjoyed exceptional economic growth, driven in part by transportation advancements. Looking forward 25 years, when the national highway and skyway systems are saturated, the nation faces new challenges in creating transportation-driven economic growth and wealth. To meet the national requirement for an improved air traffic management system, NASA developed the goal of tripling throughput over the next 20 years, in all weather conditions while maintaining safety. Analysis of the throughput goal has primarily focused on major airline operations, primarily through the hub and spoke system.However, many suggested concepts to increase throughput may operate outside the hub and spoke system. Examples of such concepts include the Small Aircraft Transportation System, civil tiltrotor, and improved rotorcraft. Proper assessment of the potential contribution of these technologies to the domestic air transportation system requires a modeling capability that includes the country's numerous smaller airports, acting as a fundamental component of the National Air space System, and the demand for such concepts and technologies. Under this task for NASA, the Logistics Management Institute developed higher fidelity demand models that capture the interdependence of short-haul air travel with other transportation modes and explicitly consider the costs of commercial air and other transport modes. To accomplish this work, we generated forecasts of the distribution of general aviation based aircraft and GA itinerant operations at each of nearly 3.000 airport based on changes in economic conditions and demographic trends. We also built modules that estimate the demand for travel by different modes, particularly auto, commercial air, and GA. We examined GA demand from two perspectives: top-down and bottom-up, described in detail.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

Quantum Computation by Optically Coupled Steady Atoms/Quantum-Dots Inside a Quantum Cavity

We present a model for quantum computation using $n$ steady 3-level atoms kept inside a quantum cavity, or using $n$ quantum-dots (QDs) kept inside a quantum cavity. In this model one external laser is pointed towards all the atoms/QDs, and $n$ pairs of electrodes are addressing the atoms/QDs, so that each atom is addressed by one pair. The energy levels of each atom/QD are controlled by an external Stark field given to the atom/QD by its external pair of electrodes. Transition between two energy levels of an individual atom/ QD are controlled by the voltage on its electrodes, and by the external laser. Interactions between two atoms/ QDs are performed with the additional help of the cavity mode (using on-resonance condition). Laser frequency, cavity frequency, and energy levels are far off-resonance most of the time, and they are brought to the resonance (using the Stark effect) only at the time of operations. Steps for a controlled-NOT gate between any two atoms/QDs have been described for this model. Our model demands some challenging technological efforts, such as manufacturing single-electron QDs inside a cavity. However, it promises big advantages over other existing models which are currently implemented, and might enable a much easier scale-up, to compute with many more qubits.

Pradhan, P.↗

Evaluation of the Doraiswamy-Thompson winter wheat crop calendar model incorporating a modified spring restart sequence

The Robertson phenology was used to provide growth stage information to a wheat stress indicator mode. A stress indicator model demands two acurate predictions from a crop calendar: date of spring growth initiation; and crop calendar stage at growth initiation. Several approaches for restarting the Robertson phenology model at spring growth initiation were studied. Although best results were obtained with a solar thermal unit method, an alternate approach which indicates soil temperature as the controlling parameter for spring growth initiation was selected and tested. The modified model (Doraiswamy-Thompson) is compared to LACIE-Robertson model predictions.

Taylor, T. W.↗

Robot graphic simulation testbed

The objective of this research was twofold. First, the basic capabilities of ROBOSIM (graphical simulation system) were improved and extended by taking advantage of advanced graphic workstation technology and artificial intelligence programming techniques. Second, the scope of the graphic simulation testbed was extended to include general problems of Space Station automation. Hardware support for 3-D graphics and high processing performance make high resolution solid modeling, collision detection, and simulation of structural dynamics computationally feasible. The Space Station is a complex system with many interacting subsystems. Design and testing of automation concepts demand modeling of the affected processes, their interactions, and that of the proposed control systems. The automation testbed was designed to facilitate studies in Space Station automation concepts.

Cook, George E.↗

Approaches to the automatic generation and control of finite element meshes

The algorithmic approaches being taken to the development of finite element mesh generators capable of automatically discretizing general domains without the need for user intervention are discussed. It is demonstrated that because of the modeling demands placed on a automatic mesh generator, all the approaches taken to date produce unstructured meshes. Consideration is also given to both a priori and a posteriori mesh control devices for automatic mesh generators as well as their integration with geometric modeling and adaptive analysis procedures.

Shephard, Mark S.↗

Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

Chin, Mian↗

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗

Regional Modeling and Simulation for Vertiport Location Assessment

There is increasing interest in the Urban Air Mobility concept and the realization of electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (e-VTOL) vehicles flying in the National Airspace System. NASA, FAA, and the industry are investigating various aspects of this new mode of transportation for cargo and humans. There are significant challenges in making this mode a reality, including feasibility, safety, infrastructure, traffic management, public acceptance, and scalability. From the infrastructure perspective, one of the aspects that needs to be addressed is the location of vertiports (named similar to heliports, for vertical take-off and landing vehicles). There is significant on-going research for selecting location of vertiports. However, the locations are largely based on demand models. Also, these efforts are focused in specific local regions, San Francisco/Bay Area, Chicago, Tampa, etc. This talk presents an approach to determine the location of vertiports in regional areas (across the United States), incorporating the desire to have certain attributes closer to or further from the location using a regional modeling tool. The feasibility of flying e-VTOL vehicles between various vertiport locations is also presented using a mobility operations simulation tool.

Air Mobility↗

Haughton-Mars Project Expedition 2005

The 2005 expedition to the Haughton-Mars Project (HMP) research station on Devon Island was part of a NASA-funded project on Space Logistics. A team of nine r&searchers from MIT went to the Canadian Arctic to participate in the annual I-IMP field campaign from July 8 to August 12, 2005. We investigated the applicability of the HMP research station as an analogue for planetary macro- and micro-logistics to the Moon and Mars, and began collecting data for modeling purposes. We also tested new technologies and procedures to enhance the ability of humans and robots to jointly explore remote environments. The expedition had four main objectives. We briefly summarize our key findings in each of these areas. 1. Classes of Supply: First, we wanted to understand what supply items existed at the HMP research station in support of planetary science and exploration research at and around the Haughton Crater. We also wanted to quantify the total amount of imported mass at HMP and compare this with predictions from existing parametric lunar base demand models. 2. Macro-Logistics Transportation Network: Our second objective was to understand the nodes, transportation routes, vehicles, capacities and crew and cargo mass flow rates required to support the HMP logistics network. 3. Agent and Asset Tracking: Since the current inventory management system on ISS relies heavily on barcodes and manual tracking, we wanted to test new automated technologies and procedures such as radio frequency identification RFID) to support exploration logistics. 4. Micro-Logistics (EVA): Finally, we wanted to understand the micro-logistical requirements of conducting both short (<1 day) and long traverses in the Mars-analog terrain on Devon Island. Micro-logistics involves the movement of surface vehicles, people and supplies from base to various exploration sites over short distances (<100 km).

deWeck, Olivier↗