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Spatially Resolved Domicile Charging Demands for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles in Virginia
The use of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and resulting grid impacts are likely to grow rapidly, and evaluation of optimal smart charge management and grid integration strategies is warranted now. Evaluating distribution grid impacts requires fine-grained models of PEV operations to estimate charging loads across diverse vehicles at high spatial resolution. We propose such a model and consider a high-electrification scenario in Richmond and Newport News, Virginia. Our framework considers four categories of vehicle that are amenable to early aggressive electrification: light-duty passenger vehicles (LDV), trucks and vans with a focus on delivery or other local operations, school buses, and transit buses. These vehicles have a relatively consistent domicile, reducing the need for public charging infrastructure rollout to electrify. We apply a recent LDV model and propose new models for each vocation of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle, leveraging telematics data. We demonstrate our framework in Virginia and find energy demands in the region may total 15 GWh day, with most consumed by LDV. However, considering power demand at high spatial resolution reveals a different trend: LDVs have relatively small peak loads at specific sites (peak site demand around 800 kW) compared to average and high demand medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging sites (peak site demand around 6,000 kW at a transit bus depot, 1,500 kW at a local freight hub, and 1,000 kW at a school). Our framework yields insights on the relative impacts of each vocation and enables future work to tailor grid integration strategies to each vehicle category.
Optimal hybrid power plants for electric vehicle charging demand
Transmission constraints, increasing motivations to decarbonize, and concerns over peak electric vehicle (EV) load impacts on local grids have driven electric customers to consider behind-the-meter, hybrid power plant generation and storage at the distributed-grid level for EV charging. In this study, we develop capabilities to optimize hybrid power plant component capacities for EV charging. We then demonstrate these capabilities in a case study for Boulder, Colorado, using public EV charging data as well as wind and solar resource data. Our results show system designs that balance the cost of energy with load-meeting and peak shaving performance. Within the case study, systems designed for wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and storage resulted in lower cost of energy than those optimized for PV and storage only. This indicates that in areas where wind resource exists, hybrid power plants that include wind, PV, and battery assets can better meet EV charging loads (including peak loads that are prone to overloading local grids) than PV and battery assets alone. Future work to address limitations in this paper include extending cost modeling to include performance losses (e.g., based on operations or weather) and charging station costs to estimate levelized cost of charging, and quantifying uncertainty and error in our aggregation methods for estimating EV charging loads at the hourly timescale.
Forecasting EV Charging Demand on the Distribution System
The U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have historically operated independently, but the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is driving their convergence. After decades of stagnant demand, utilities must prepare for rising load growth, driven in part by transportation electrification. Utilities must anticipate when and where these new loads will materialize to effectively manage EV growth and maintain grid reliability. This presentation outlines NREL's approach to developing high-resolution EV load datasets for distribution planning, with insights from the Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study on EV and load forecasting, infrastructure requirements, and managed charging strategies.
Intelligent Control of Thermal Energy Storage in the Manufacturing Sector for Plant-Level Grid Response
Industrial facilities are seeking new strategies that help in providing savings mechanisms for demand charges. Demand charges are the charges incurred by industrial facilities as a result of power usage. Thermal energy storage has advanced significantly with lots of new applications, garnering the interest of many industrial facilities. These applications could be used to shave the industrial facilities’ peak electric demand and reduce their demand charges. This paper aims to demonstrate the efficacy of thermal energy storage in reducing demand charges and highlight new developments in the integration of smart control systems with thermal energy storage. The study compares energy consumption and peak demand for a facility equipped with and without thermal energy storage tanks using a fixed schedule for charging and discharging. Additionally, the paper examines the impact of incorporating a smart controller to determine when to charge and discharge the tank based on the facility’s real-time power usage and a given setpoint. The results indicate cost savings from the use of thermal energy storage tanks under two proposed scenarios, reflected in the reduced cost of power consumption for the studied facility. The incorporation of a smart controller with the thermal energy storage tank in the facility studied could provide estimated savings of 3.3% per year of power consumption charges, without considering the contribution of any incentives. The estimated savings provided by the fixed schedule scenario are 2.7% per year.
Strategies for microgrid operation under real-world conditions
Microgrids are an increasingly relevant technology for integrating renewable energy sources into electricity systems. Based on a microgrid implementation in California, in this study we investigate microgrid operation under real-world conditions. These conditions have not yet been considered in combination and encompass energy charges, demand charges, export limits, as well as uncertainty about future electricity demand and generation in the microgrid. Under these conditions, we evaluate the performance of two frequently applied groups of strategies for microgrid operation. The first group is composed of proactive strategies that optimize decisions based on forecasts of future electricity generation and demand. The second group includes reactive strategies that make operational decisions based exclusively on the current state of the microgrid. We evaluate the performance of the strategies under varying operational parameters, forecast accuracies, and microgrid configurations—well beyond our Californian showcase. Our results confirm the expectation that proactive strategies outperform reactive ones in the majority of settings. Yet, reactive strategies can perform better under short control intervals or under moderate prediction errors of PV generation or demand. Furthermore, the interplay between real-world conditions and operational strategies reveals several additional insights for research on microgrid operation. First, we find that demand charges and export limits decisively affect microgrid performance. Second, the impact of forecast errors is highly non-linear and non-monotonous. Third, escalating negative interactions between forecast errors and demand charges make proactive strategies benefit from longer control intervals. This result is contrary to existing best practice, which promotes short control intervals to minimize the impact of uncertainty.
Sizing battery energy storage and PV system in an extreme fast charging station considering uncertainties and battery degradation
In this paper, we present mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulations to obtain optimal sizing for a battery energy storage system (BESS) and solar generation system in an extreme fast charging station (XFCS) to reduce the annualized total cost. The proposed model characterizes a typical year with eight representative scenarios and obtains the optimal energy management for the station and BESS operation to exploit the energy arbitrage for each scenario. Contrasting extant literature, this paper proposes a constant power constant voltage (CPCV) based improved probabilistic approach to model the XFCS charging demand for weekdays and weekends. This paper also accounts for the monthly and annual demand charges based on realistic utility tariffs. Furthermore, BESS life degradation is considered in the model to ensure no replacement is needed during the considered planning horizon. Different from the literature, this paper offers pragmatic MILP formulations to tally BESS charge/discharge cycles using the cumulative charge/discharge energy concept. McCormick relaxations and the Big-M method are utilized to relax the bi-linear terms in the BESS operational constraints. Finally, a robust optimization-based MILP model is proposed and leveraged to account for uncertainties in electricity price, solar generation, and XFCS demand. Case studies were performed to signify the efficacy of the proposed formulations.
Guide for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings for Federal Agencies
This guide provides an overview of GEB characteristics and benefits and how to analyze, identify, and implement GEB retrofit opportunities. It is important to understand the building’s systems as well as what utility program offerings are available at the site (e.g., time-of-use, electricity rates, demand charges, demand response programs, etc.). It is also important to understand the key goals for the site (e.g., environmental, cost savings, energy savings) and the current energy usage breakdown by equipment and load profile variability by day, month, and season.
Learning-based demand-supply-coupled charging station location problem for electric vehicle demand management
We present a learning-based, demand-supply-coupled optimization model for the charging station location problem (CSLP), aiming to integrate the concept of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand management into the planning of charging infrastructures. In stage one, a gradient boosting-based learning model is developed to predict the charging demand of a charging station based on 15 defined features. Next, in stage two, a demand–supply-coupled CSLP model is developed to optimize the total charging usage rates of both existing and newly selected charging stations. We design a gradient-based stochastic spatial search algorithm to solve the proposed model. A case study with 6-year charging event data from Kansas City Missouri is performed. Results show that the proposed method can generate satisfactory charging demand predictions, and can increase charging usage rates by 14%, outperforming two benchmark approaches. Furthermore, the results of this research are poised to guide agencies in identifying optimal locations for new charging stations.
An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Spatiotemporal Optimization of Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Station Demand
With increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, managing public fast-charging demand effectively is crucial to avoid grid strain. This study investigates the potential of using dynamic pricing schemes to address this challenge. Presented in this study is a scalable agent-based simulation framework, which is applied to a case study in Richmond, Virginia, that assumes a 50% EV adoption rate in 2040. Two pricing schemes are compared: (1) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on station utilization and (2) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on peak power at the station. These schemes are compared to two baseline scenarios: (1) unscheduled first-come, first-served and (2) scheduled with constant price. The study’s results suggest that dynamic pricing has the potential to influence EV charging behavior, inducing both spatial and temporal shifts, but does so at the cost of inducing inconvenience to EV drivers. The results suggest the peak-power dynamic pricing scheme has the potential to mitigate peak demand pressures on the grid with minimal inconvenience, offering a promising approach for sustainable EV charging infrastructure expansion.
Optimal charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging battery electric bus system
Herein we discuss how battery electric buses (BEBs) are rapidly being embraced by public transit agencies because of their environmental and economic benefits. To address the problems of limited driving range and time-consuming charging for BEBs, manufacturers have developed rapid on-route charging technology that utilizes typical layovers at terminals to charge buses in operation using high power. With on-route fast-charging, BEBs are as capable as their diesel counterparts in terms of range and operating time. However, on-route fast-charging makes it more challenging to schedule and manage charging events for a BEB system. First, on-route fast-charging may lead to high electricity power demand charges. Second, it may increase electricity energy charges because of charging that occurs during on-peak hours. Without careful charging scheduling and management, on-route fast-charging may significantly increase fuel costs and reduce the economic attractiveness of BEBs. The present study proposes a network modeling framework to optimize the charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging BEB system, effectively minimizing total charging costs. The charging schedule determines when to charge a BEB, while the charging management strategically controls the actual charging power. Charging costs include both electricity demand charges and energy charges. The charging scheduling and management problem is first formulated as a nonlinear nonconvex program with time-continuous variables. A discretizing method and a linear reformulation technique are then adopted to reformulate the model as a linear program, which can be easily solved using off-the-shelf solvers, even for large-scale problems. Finally, the model is demonstrated with extensive numerical studies based on two real-world bus networks. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively determine the optimal charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging BEB system, which carries the potential for use in large-scale real-world bus networks.
Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior
To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.
Peak Power Minimization for Commercial Thermostatically Controlled Loads in Multi-Unit Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings
The load profiles of most commercial and industrial consumers are characterized by brief periods of very high power consumption followed by intervals of lower demand. To encourage such consumers to flatten their load profiles, power utilities in and around the world often levy a monthly demand charge (DC) on the peak demand measured over brief intervals. In this work, we consider the joint optimization of energy costs (EC) and the instantaneous peak power of a multi-unit building which uses a hydronic heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) system and responds to a demand response (DR) program. Despite the non-linear structure of the problem, we show how optimal solutions can be obtained efficiently using linear programming. Next, we study the power demand patterns resulting from our proposed strategy for thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), and evaluate the strategy’s performance for various climate zones in the US, under both typical and atypical weather conditions. Finally, the results show that depending on the ambient conditions and the tariff structure, our strategy can result in utility bill savings of up to nearly 19% compared to the baseline. The results also indicate that our power control strategy can significantly reduce the instantaneous peak power consumption in commercial TCLs.
An analytical method for identifying synergies between behind-the-meter battery and thermal energy storage
Electric utilities build generation capacity to meet the highest demand period, and they often pass on the costs associated with these peaking generators to building owners through demand charges. Building owners can minimize these demand charges by shifting energy use away from peak periods with behind-the-meter storage. This storage can include batteries, which can directly shift the metered load, or thermal energy storage, which can shift thermal-driven electric loads like air conditioning. However, there is a lack of research on how best to combine battery and thermal energy storage. In this study, we develop an analytical sizing method to calculate the potential demand reduction and annualized cost savings for different combinations of thermal and battery energy storage sizes. We show that adding batteries to a thermal energy storage system can increase the total system's load shaving potential. This is particularly true when the building has onsite photovoltaic generation or electric vehicle charging, which add significant variability to the load shape. We also show that for a given total storage size, selecting a higher fraction of thermal energy storage can significantly lower the cycling of the battery, and therefore extend the battery life. This, combined with the expected lower first cost of thermal energy storage materials compared to batteries, shows that hybrid energy storage systems can outperform a standalone battery or standalone thermal storage system. Assuming the thermal storage has a capital cost 6x lower than the battery, our analysis shows that the optimal system is 71% thermal energy storage and 29% battery energy storage for a scenario with electric vehicle charging. The annualized cost savings for this system are $48.6 k/yr, whereas an equivalently sized standalone thermal energy storage system would provide annualized cost savings of $28.5 k/yr and a standalone battery would lead to savings of $8.72 k/yr. The hybrid system also reduces battery cycling by 52% compared to a standalone battery, extending battery lifetime.
EV Forecasting-Based Model Predictive Control for Distribution System Congestion Mitigation
The uncoordinated charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in time and space brings congestion issues to the distribution network. This paper proposes an EV charging demand forecasting-based model predictive control (MPC) method for distribution system congestion management. To effectively forecast the time-series EV station charging demand, a hybrid forecasting model that integrates the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and Transformer is proposed. The Transformer-LSTM model is trained using a one-year real historical charging dataset of EV stations to forecast future charging demand in 15-minute intervals. This informs the MPC for distribution network congestion management and minimization of PV curtailment. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 123-bus distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively resolve line congestion issues through EV smart charging and PV curtailment while outperforming other benchmarks.
Virtual storage capability of residential buildings for sustainable smart city via model-based predictive control
This paper evaluates the virtual storage capability of a residential air-conditioning (AC) system by utilizing the building mass as a thermal storage to enable sustainable cities through model-based predictive control (MPC). The control-oriented building model was developed with a grey-box model structure based on the experimental data to predict the indoor air temperature. Based on the model, the operation cost-saving potential of the MPC was investigated in a single house with different comfort levels, electricity prices, and prediction horizons. The cost-saving of the MPC was approximately 10.6 % compared to the conventional control. The MPC was expanded to a residential building cluster considering the peak demand charge. In an hourly shedding and load-up scenario, the performances of the MPC and the heuristic prior-based control (PBC) are promising. When shedding was enforced all day, the peak demand saving of the MPC was 36~38 %, whereas that of the PBC was 25.7 % compared to the baseline. In addition, the monthly electricity bill, including the operation and peak demand cost, was investigated with different demand charge rates and weather conditions. The total saving decreased with a low demand charge rate and hot conditions, and the operation cost saving was compromised with more aggressive demand shedding.
Electric Vehicle and Infrastructure Systems Modeling in Washington D.C. and Baltimore
This report documents the Argonne-Exelon effort to develop and utilize an agent-based model (ATEAM) of charging demand and infrastructure expansion applicable to the Washington, DC–Baltimore, MD consolidated metropolitan area. This study extends the ATEAM model time horizon to 10 years (from 2020 to 2030), expands agent behavior modeling capabilities, incorporates more granular and extensive empirical data on charging behavior, and analyzes charging needs for a much larger population of PEVs, in keeping with regional goals for significant adoption of ZEVs. With given targets for annual BEV adoption, five scenarios were developed to examine public infrastructure needs and resulting charging load, considering different home charging availabilities, as well as different PEV consumer profiles and public charging infrastructure deployment strategies. Scenario results show that if new chargers (both L2 and DCFC) are spread more widely (as with ubiquitous deployment strategies), there will be less variation in the number of chargers added to each census tract in the study area. More importantly, widespread public charging infrastructure with ubiquitous deployment strategies reduces unmet charging demand and improves charging success, even with heavy reliance on public charging. About 80 percent of BEV drivers can charge on their first attempt in scenarios with ubiquitous deployment strategies. Moreover, widespread public charging infrastructure better meets the demand for more charging, and in return, increases BEV adoption. Low home charging availability produces higher charging loads in public locations, especially during the early morning (around 8:00 a.m.) and late afternoon (around 6:00 p.m.). The evening peak load indicates that drivers are taking advantage of public charging before heading home. Study results also indicate that even with 20 percent home charging availability in 2030, just 20 percent of drivers attempt to charge on a given day. With their relatively high electric range (200+ miles), the BEVs expected to be on the road in 2030 can handle daily commutes without re-charging for a couple of days.
ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility
This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.