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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

Periods of water surplus and deficit in Northern California follow a pronounced quasi-decadal cycle. This cycle is largely driven by the frequency of atmospheric rivers (ARs), affecting the region’s wet and dry periods. Our analyses demonstrate that the quasi-decadal cycle of AR frequency relies on moisture transport associated with the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low. In observations, the Aleutian Low is shown to covary with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. A modeling experiment, which incorporates ocean observations from the equatorial Pacific into the fully coupled climate model, provides support that the quasi-decadal cycle of the Aleutian Low is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, the tropical Pacific modulates the wet season moisture transport toward California on decadal time scales, affecting AR frequency. These results provide metrics for improving interannual-to-decadal prediction of AR activity, which drives hydrological cycles in Northern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence of high-temperature exciton condensation in a two-dimensional semimetal

Electrons and holes can spontaneously form excitons and condense in a semimetal or semiconductor, as predicted decades ago. This type of Bose condensation can happen at much higher temperatures in comparison with dilute atomic gases. Two-dimensional (2D) materials with reduced Coulomb screening around the Fermi level are promising for realizing such a system. Here we report a change in the band structure accompanied by a phase transition at about 180 K in single-layer ZrTe 2 based on angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) measurements. Below the transition temperature, gap opening and development of an ultra-flat band top around the zone center are observed. This gap and the phase transition are rapidly suppressed with extra carrier densities introduced by adding more layers or dopants on the surface. The results suggest the formation of an excitonic insulating ground state in single-layer ZrTe 2 , and the findings are rationalized by first-principles calculations and a self-consistent mean-field theory. Our study provides evidence for exciton condensation in a 2D semimetal and demonstrates strong dimensionality effects on the formation of intrinsic bound electron–hole pairs in solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observation of interface piezoelectricity in superconducting devices on silicon

The development of superconducting quantum processors relies on understanding and mitigating decoherence in superconducting qubits. Piezoelectric coupling contributes to decoherence by mediating energy exchange between microwave photons and acoustic phonons. Although bulk centrosymmetric materials like silicon and sapphire are non-piezoelectric and commonly used as qubit substrates, the lack of centrosymmetry at interfaces may induce piezoelectric losses. This effect was predicted decades ago but never experimentally observed in superconducting devices. Here, we report interface piezoelectricity at aluminum-silicon junctions and demonstrate it as a significant loss channel in superconducting devices. Using aluminum interdigital transducers on silicon, we observe piezoelectric transduction from room to millikelvin temperatures, with an effective electromechanical coupling factor K 2 ≈ (3 ± 0.4) × 10−5%, comparable to weakly piezoelectric substrates. Modeling shows this mechanism limits qubit quality factors to Q ~ 10 4 − 10 8 , depending on surface participation and mode matching. These findings reveal interface piezoelectricity as a major dissipation channel and highlight the need for heterostructure and phononic engineering in next-generation superconducting qubits.

Zhou, Haoxin [University of California, Berkeley, ↗
DOE OSTI2023

An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming

Since the early 2010s, anthropogenic aerosols have started decreasing in East Asia (EA) while have continued to increase in South Asia (SA). Yet the climate impacts of this Asian aerosol dipole (AAD) pattern remain largely unknown. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we demonstrate that the climate response is distinctly different between the SA aerosol increases and EA aerosol decreases. The SA aerosol increases lead to ~2.7 times stronger land summer precipitation change within the forced regions than the EA aerosol decreases. Contrastingly, the SA aerosol increases, within the tropical monsoon regime, produce weak and tropically confined responses, while the EA aerosol decreases yield a pronounced northern hemisphere warming aided by extratropical mean westerly and positive air-sea feedbacks over the western North Pacific. By scaling the observed instantaneous shortwave radiative forcing, we reveal that the recent AAD induces a pronounced northern hemisphere extratropical (beyond 30°N) warming (0.024 ± 0.010 °C decade -1 ), particularly over Europe (0.049 ± 0.009 °C decade -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of the pattern effect of forcings in driving global climate and have important implications for decadal prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid simulation of Alfvén wave parametric decay instability in a laboratory relevant plasma

Large-amplitude Alfvén waves are subject to parametric decays, which can have important consequences in space, astrophysical, and fusion plasmas. Although the Alfvén wave parametric decay instability (PDI) was predicted decades ago, observational evidence is limited, stimulating considerable interest in laboratory demonstration of the instability and associated numerical modeling. Here, we report an important step toward direct hybrid simulation of the Alfvén wave PDI in a laboratory plasma, using antenna-like wave injection of a circularly polarized wave and realistic wave-plasma parameters. Considering collisionless damping, we identify the threshold Alfvén wave amplitudes and frequencies required for triggering the instability. These threshold behaviors are corroborated by simple theoretical analysis, considering the balance between PDI growth and ion Landau damping and PDI development in a bounded plasma. Other effects not included in the present model such as finite transverse wave scale and ion–neutral collisions are briefly discussed. These hybrid simulations promise to be a useful tool for investigating laboratory Alfvén wave dynamics and may provide guidance for future laboratory demonstration of the PDI process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance

Abstract Vegetation composition shifts, and in particular, shrub expansion across the Arctic tundra are some of the most important and widely observed responses of high-latitude ecosystems to rapid climate warming. These changes in vegetation potentially alter ecosystem carbon balances by affecting a complex set of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions. In this review, we synthesize the literature on (a) observed shrub expansion, (b) key climatic and environmental controls and mechanisms that affect shrub expansion, (c) impacts of shrub expansion on ecosystem carbon balance, and (d) research gaps and future directions to improve process representations in land models. A broad range of evidence, including in-situ observations, warming experiments, and remotely sensed vegetation indices have shown increases in growth and abundance of woody plants, particularly tall deciduous shrubs, and advancing shrublines across the circumpolar Arctic. This recent shrub expansion is affected by several interacting factors including climate warming, accelerated nutrient cycling, changing disturbance regimes, and local variation in topography and hydrology. Under warmer conditions, tall deciduous shrubs can be more competitive than other plant functional types in tundra ecosystems because of their taller maximum canopy heights and often dense canopy structure. Competitive abilities of tall deciduous shrubs vs herbaceous plants are also controlled by variation in traits that affect carbon and nutrient investments and retention strategies in leaves, stems, and roots. Overall, shrub expansion may affect tundra carbon balances by enhancing ecosystem carbon uptake and altering ecosystem respiration, and through complex feedback mechanisms that affect snowpack dynamics, permafrost degradation, surface energy balance, and litter inputs. Observed and projected tall deciduous shrub expansion and the subsequent effects on surface energy and carbon balances may alter feedbacks to the climate system. Land models, including those integrated in Earth System Models, need to account for differences in plant traits that control competitive interactions to accurately predict decadal- to centennial-scale tundra vegetation and carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Decadal climate variability and change affects nearly every aspect of our world, including weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and the economy. Predicting its expression is thus of critical importance on multiple fronts. Power et al. review what is known about tropical Pacific decadal climate variability and change, the degree to which it can be simulated and predicted, and how we might improve our understanding of it. Here, more accurate projections will require longer and more detailed instrumental and paleoclimate records, improved climate models, and better data assimilation methods. —HJS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micro2Macro: Origins of Climate Change Uncertainty

Where we are: Global Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools for seasonal-to decadal environmental predictions, which decision-makers across government and industry require. However, uncertainties originating at the microphysical scale, i.e., in processes occurring on scales smaller than typical ESM grid boxes, remain a major challenge. While resolution continues to improve in our predictive models, we will need to parameterize microphysical processes that contribute the bulk of prediction uncertainty for the foreseeable future. Microphysical uncertainties contribute broadly to remaining limitations on Earth system predictability on seasonal and decadal time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Constrained Bottom-Up Ecohydrology and Improved Prediction of Seasonal, Interannual, and Decadal Flood and Drought Risks

Focal Areas: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (3)Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed & simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Partial Support for the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

An interagency collaboration initiated between Navy, Air Force and NOAA and expanded to DOE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The goal of ESPC is to meet broad but specific agency requirements for an earth system analysis and prediction framework to support one-day to decadal global prediction at appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution; including the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to extend and understand the sources and limits of water cycle predictability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales in the Earth system

This white paper provides initial insight on how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including interpretability and explainable AI (XAI) methods, can be leveraged to glean insight from complex data for a paradigm-changing improvement in Earth system predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. The application of AI to extend and improve predictability, in combination with causal inference and uncertainty quantification, could lead to a transformative understanding of the integrative water cycle and associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗