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Landslide Likelihood Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

The supply of electricity via power plants is criticalto the operation of many critical infrastructure systems in mod-ern society. Natural hazards can disrupt the power supply, causepower outages that can halt economic growth, and impede emer-gency response until power is restored. The proposed work aimsto predict the landslides likelihood in these critical infrastructurelocations in the Northeastern USA using integrated databases ofexplanatory variables and machine learning algorithms. First,data related to landslides are obtained and merged, includingtopographic, soil moisture, and precipitation-related data. Fiveregression algorithms, namely: Random Forest, Extreme Gradi-ent Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbor regression (KNN),Linear Support Vector Regressor (SVR), and Linear regression,are utilized to predict the landslide probability and evaluatedon the dataset. The accuracy of the models is assessed by usingstatistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), meansquared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).The study results show that Random Forest outperformed othermodels with the mutual information feature selection method.It achieved an MSE of 0.0011 with mutual information-basedfeature selection and an MSE of 0.00157 without feature selection.KNN regressor outperformed the other models with an MSEof 0.00139 with correlation-based information selection. Theproposed landslide identification model with Random Forestalgorithm shows outstanding robustness and great potential intackling the landslide likelihood prediction by employing MLalgorithms.

Vasundhara Acharya

Using decision-tree classifier systems to extract knowledge from databases

One difficulty in applying artificial intelligence techniques to the solution of real world problems is that the development and maintenance of many AI systems, such as those used in diagnostics, require large amounts of human resources. At the same time, databases frequently exist which contain information about the process(es) of interest. Recently, efforts to reduce development and maintenance costs of AI systems have focused on using machine learning techniques to extract knowledge from existing databases. Research is described in the area of knowledge extraction using a class of machine learning techniques called decision-tree classifier systems. Results of this research suggest ways of performing knowledge extraction which may be applied in numerous situations. In addition, a measurement called the concept strength metric (CSM) is described which can be used to determine how well the resulting decision tree can differentiate between the concepts it has learned. The CSM can be used to determine whether or not additional knowledge needs to be extracted from the database. An experiment involving real world data is presented to illustrate the concepts described.

St.clair, D. C.

Development of Digital Twin Technologies for Climate Projections

Climate projections are increasingly needed for adaptation, climate resilience and related decision making. However, existing projections have systematic biases, are limited in scope, and are not readily available for most potential users. While the ideal of an observational data-driven ‘digital twin’ for climate is initially attractive, there is only a very limited set of climate data available with which to train such a tool. Nonetheless, we are confident that there is a role for ‘digital twin technologies’ in removing biases, increasing computational efficiency, expanding scenarios and data accessibility.

digital twins

Digitally-Engineered Impact Resistant Aerogel Composites for MMOD Protection (DIRAC-MP)

This project implemented a digital-engineering approach to optimize the impact absorption performance of polymer aerogels and aerogel-based composites for Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris (MMOD) containment. We developed a curated materials database and a machine-learning framework to derive composition-response relationships, enabling predictive design and targeted material selection. In support of experimental validation, a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) test rig, specifically adapted for low-density aerogel materials, was designed and built in-house. This project accelerates the development of new aerogel formulations, producing candidate materials tailored for enhanced impact-absorption behavior.

Sadeq Malakooti

Lunar Browser Utilization of Machine Learning for Trajectory Solution Production

This paper describes the application of machine learning tools to produce Earth-Moon spacecraft trajectories with applications to NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) and Artemis Human Landing System (HLS) programs. Existing trajectory solutions are used to train and test machine learning models to predict essential details of a trajectory sequence from Earth-launch to Low-Lunar Orbit, populating a database of solutions with future launch dates. The machine learning model will implement hyperparameter optimization for further re-training to improve model performance. Accurate predictive models decrease the time required to produce solutions and are readily implemented in the Lunar Browser tool.

Trajectory Design

From the Knowledge-based Digital Platform (KbDP) Concept for Advanced Air Mobility Research to a Preliminary Prototype

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) encompasses a range of innovative operational and technological changes to aviation (electric aircraft, increasingly automated aircraft, increasingly automated airspace operations, etc.) that are transforming aviation’s role in everyday movement of people and goods. There are multiple associated concepts and use cases for AAM, all interrelated, including small Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM), Upper-Class E Traffic Management (ETM), Extensible Traffic Management (xTM), Regional Air Mobility (RAM), and Urban Air Mobility (UAM). These AAM operations must integrate with traditional Air Traffic Management (ATM) operations, as well as non-aviation modes of transportation and logistics. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is spearheading an innovative digital engineering approach to integrate, communicate, and facilitate the research of multi-modal transportation systems. The Knowledge-based Digital Platform (KbDP) is a concept being developed that ties the workflows of Project Managers (PM), Principal Investigators (PI), and System Engineers together across organizational boundaries. It does so through the management of an information database defined by mathematical, data science, and system engineering principles. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms play a key role in this concept by extracting meaningful knowledge from the information database, which the human user leverages to greatly improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their research. Expected benefits of this concept include improved technology transfers from research to production, improved research portfolio investments, and research outcomes that are more integrated with all aspects of the multi-modal transportation problem. The preliminary KbDP prototype has been realized using UAM as a pathfinder use case and developed by a team of system engineer, software developer, data scientist, and interns.

Systems Engineering

Open Science for Life in Space: Bioimaging, Data Sharing, and Tools for Knowledge Discovery

Precious space-flown biological experiments have both multi-omic and phenotypic data which NASA strives to make maximally open access for reuse. Currently a number of these space-relevant bioimaging datasets are being reused for AI/ML approaches. NASA Ames Life Science Data Archive and NASA GeneLab are working to make all current and future bioimaging data even more accessible and reusable. Standards for collection and curation are being implemented to enable scientists worldwide access to these data for further discovery and use.

data science

Electronic Nose Development and Preliminary Human Breath Testing for Rapid, Non-Invasive COVID-19 Detection

We adapted an existing, spaceflight-proven, robust “electronic nose” (E-Nose) that uses an array of electrical resistivity-based nanosensors mimicking aspects of mammalian olfaction to conduct on-site, rapid screening for COVID-19 infection by measuring the pattern of sensor responses to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled human breath. We built and tested multiple copies of a hand-held prototype E-Nose sensor system, composed of 64 chemically sensitive nanomaterial sensing elements tailored to COVID-19 VOC detection; data acquisition electronics; a smart tablet with software (App) for sensor control, data acquisition and display; and a sampling fixture to capture exhaled breath samples and deliver them to the sensor array inside the E-Nose. The sensing elements detect the combination of VOCs typical in breath at parts-per-billion (ppb) levels, with repeatability of 0.02% and reproducibility of 1.2%; the measurement electronics in the E-Nose provide measurement accuracy and signal-to-noise ratios comparable to benchtop instrumentation. Preliminary clinical testing at Stanford Medicine with 63 participants, their COVID-19-positive or COVID-19-negative status determined by concomitant RT-PCR, discriminated between these two categories of human breath with a 79% correct identification rate using “leave-one-out” training-and-analysis methods. Analyzing the E-Nose response in conjunction with body temperature and other non-invasive symptom screening using advanced machine learning methods, with a much larger database of responses from a wider swath of the population, is expected to provide more accurate on-the-spot answers. Additional clinical testing, design refinement, and a mass manufacturing approach are the main steps toward deploying this technology to rapidly screen for active infection in clinics and hospitals, public and commercial venues, or at home.

COVID-19

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) DATASCOPE Technical Interchange Meeting 21st August 2023: Background and Summary of Discussion

An aspiration for EIMO datascope is to realize artificial intelligence-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A vision proposed to the meeting participants was that of a “system of systems,” whereby EIMO will utilize AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning techniques to synthesize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources to continuously and seamlessly assess crew health & performance. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will ideally have a degree of mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats.

Artificial Intelligence

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley

A Global Land Cover Training Dataset From 1984 to 2020

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

Radost Stanimirova

Developing Concepts of Operations Using Multi-Step Tool Techniques With Large Language Models

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Air Mobility Pathfinders (AMP) project is developing and evaluating concepts of operations (ConOps) for safe, secure, and scalable Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The AMP project’s Operational Concepts, Architecture, and Requirements Integration (OCARI) Team is using a Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) approach for integration, interoperability, and traceability of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) ecosystems centered around urban air taxi services. The team’s goal is to define structures and behaviors needed for system feasibility, readiness, and interoperability, establish a UAM knowledge base, and trace and validate assumptions and requirements relevant to AAM. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is spearheading an innovative digital engineering approach to integrate, communicate, and facilitate the research of multi-modal transportation systems. The Knowledge-based Digital Platform (KbDP) is a concept being developed that ties the workflows of Project Managers (PM), Principal Investigators (PI), and System Engineers together across organizational boundaries. It does so through the management of an information database defined by mathematical, data science, and system engineering principles. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms play a key role in this concept by extracting meaningful knowledge from relational and graph databases, document repositories, and system artifacts, which the human user leverages to greatly improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their research. Recent advancements in the field of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically models trained for tool use, such as Command-R , now allow for the reliable implementation of single-step and multi-step tool-centric systems. These techniques provide the LLM with a set of tools, in our case Python functions, that can be called on to answer a much wider range of questions compared to LLMs implemented using a traditional single-source or Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) approach. Through this method, the LLM can pull information from multiple data sources, such as relational or graph databases, document repositories, application programming interfaces (APIs), and SysML artifacts depending on the user’s question. The LLM can also output the information in a variety of different formats, using output generation tools, such as CSV, UML, or SysML artifacts. Additionally, tools can be assigned roles and can work together to provide answers to queries in an “agent” like approach, similar to that implemented by Microsoft’s AutoGen framework where different agents can converse with each other to accomplish tasks. Previously, our team developed a chatbot system with “agent like” functionality in the form of different “modes” the user could select from a user interface (UI), this architecture can be seen on the left in figure 1. Three different modes were implemented, the first mode allowed the LLM to utilize the structures and algorithms within a graph database to trace UAM requirements. The second mode gave the LLM access to a vector search capable of providing relevant information from thousands of document pages related to UAM ConOps and requirements. The third mode served as a general assistant where users could enter open-ended questions and custom prompts to utilize the LLM for different use-cases. This system improved the process surrounding generating and analyzing information related to UAM requirements, however, the implementation provided a clunky user experience. Users were required to know what mode to select within the UI in advance before entering their question to the selected tool. Moreover, the different tools were isolated from each other, they lacked bidirectional links that would allow for tools to collaborate to generate better responses. Our team is working on a new architecture, seen on the right in the below figure, with the goal to address many of the UX shortcomings of our original system while improving the accuracy and depth of responses from the LLM. This new system will automatically select the appropriate tool to use based off the user’s question. Each tool will be capable of calling on any of the other tools available to the LLM, resulting in a collaborative pipeline where tools can pass data between other tools until enough data is received to generate an answer to the user’s question. Using a locally deployed, open-source, LLM, the NASA OCARI team, in collaboration with Collins Aerospace, will implement a prototype application that will bridge knowledge across multiple sources to assist System Engineers (SEs) with requirements discovery and tracing, research question and use case identification, and assumption validation. Such a system will also allow SEs to more easily, and intuitively, explore the AAM ecosystem, ultimately improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the SE's research and decision-making processes surrounding ConOps development and validation. In this session, our team will provide a video demonstration of our new prototype architecture in action. We will also present an overview of our prototype system architecture and talk about its advantages over traditional LLM deployments along with how those advantages can provide additional value to the field of System Engineering.

systems engineering

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys

Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are a unique class of materials with several remarkable properties including shape recovery, superelasticity, etc. Especially important for many NASA applications is the ability to tune the martensitic phase transition temperature by varying the alloy composition. Nickel-titanium (NiTi) based alloys are the most widely studied of this class, with compositions involving ternary, quaternary, or higher additions being considered. Over the past several years, a significant database of SMA properties has been assembled by NASA researchers. Such a database is ideal for data science-based approaches including machine learning. We present results from a developed machine learning model capable of accurately predicting the transition temperature of SMAs across a wide range of compositions. Our model has the added benefit of interpretability and even provides confidence intervals for our predictions. This model will make rapid screening and design of new SMA materials possible. Predictions from the machine learning model can be validated by empirical and/or atomistic scale modeling.

Shreyas Honrao

Machine Learning-Based Predictive Analytics for Aircraft Engine Conceptual Design

Big data and artificial intelligence/machine learning are transforming the global business environment. Data is now the most valuable asset for enterprises in every industry. Companies are using data-driven insights for competitive advantage. With that, the adoption of machine learning-based data analytics is rapidly taking hold across various industries, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. This work explored the application of machine learning to aircraft engine conceptual design. Supervised machine-learning algorithms for regression and classification were employed to study patterns in an existing, open-source database of production and research turbofan engines, and resulting in predictive analytics for use in predicting performance of new turbofan designs. Specifically, the author developed machine learning-based analytics to predict cruise thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC) and core sizes of high-efficiency turbofan engines, using engine design parameters as the input. The predictive analytics were trained and deployed in Keras, an open-source neural networks application program interface (API) written in Python, with Google’s TensorFlow (an open source library for numerical computation) serving as the backend engine. The promising results of the predictive analytics show that machine-learning techniques merit further exploration for application in aircraft engine conceptual design.

deep-learning

Image Database Exploration: Progress and Challenges

In this paper we discuss the general problem of automated image database exploration, the particular aspects of image databases which distinguish them from other databases, and how this impacts the application of off-the-shelf learning algorithms to problems of this nature. Current progress will be illustrated using two large-scale image exploration projects at JPL. The paper concludes with a discussion of current and future challenges.

image database exploration pattern recognition tec

Fast Machine Learning Lidar Surrogate Simulator: Pristine Clear Sky

The simulations of lidar signals and retrievals rely on a range of optic-physical models, such as radiative transfer models, particle scattering and absorption models, along with the output data from atmospheric physical models. Integrating these different models to represent signals of a lidar system is computationally expensive, and performing backward retrievals can be complex and ambiguous. However, with the advantages of Machine Learning, there is a new potential for building effective lidar signal database linked to corresponding atmospheric profiles. For this project, we are developing a fast pre-trained neural network as the lidar surrogate simulator using simulated data for a CALIPSO-like lidar (355 nm, 532nm, and 1064nm), and a CO2 differential absorption lidar (DIAL) near 1571nm. Specifically, we utilize a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to map the relationships between atmospheric profiles (pressure, temperature, air density and CO2 mixing ratio) and lidar signals. This approach allows us to build machine learning based simulators that can reconstruct lidar signals at specific bands from MERRA reanalysis data, and perform retrievals of atmospheric profiles using lidar signals at various wavelengths. As a first step, the results show the potential of this method to establish a foundational model for sensor signals. This model offers the promise of enabling both accurate predictions and rapid retrievals, providing a more efficient approach to signal processing and analysis.

Shan Zeng