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At least 37 records · Page 2

The particle background of the Rosat PSPC

In order to permit quantitative studies of the diffuse cosmic X-ray background and of extended X-ray sources, the particle induced background of the Roentgen Satellite, Rosat, Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) is parameterized. Data collected during 210,000 s of PSPC operation have been analyzed and the temporal, spectral, and spatial distributions investigated. About 77 percent of the residual events originate within the detector while the remainder enter through the counter window. During typical conditions, the count rate of the residual events is well correlated with the Master Veto (MV) count rate. The spectrum of these events is well described by a flat component plus a soft power law and an Al K-alpha line at 1.5 keV. Also during typical conditions, the ratio between the power law and flat components remains constant to +/- 4 while the relative Al K-alpha contribution increases with increasing MV count rate. The distribution of the counts over the field of view is uniform except for a slight radial dependence and shadowing caused by blockage of the externally produced component by the window support structure.

Snowden, S. L.↗

Precipitation and nitrogen application stimulate soil nitrous oxide emission

Precipitation and nitrogen (N) fertilization are the two most important drivers for soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission. However, the effects of changes in N fertilization and precipitation patterns (i.e., precipitation intensity and frequency) on N 2 O emissions in agricultural fields are still unclear. In this study, we simulated soil N 2 O emission under different precipitation patterns (6 precipitation intensities, and 12 precipitation frequencies by either merging or splitting precipitation events) and N fertilization rates (low, typical, and high N fertilization) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition model. The model was parameterized and validated using meteorological data and N experimental measurements in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. Results showed that soil water filled pore space (WFPS) and simulated soil N 2 O emission increased as precipitation intensity increased. Less frequent but high intensity precipitation treatments reduced the soil WFPS by 25.2% and stimulated soil N 2 O emission by 45.3%, while more frequent but low intensity precipitation treatments increased soil WFPS by 9.0% and reduced soil N 2 O emission by 23.9%. Compared to typical N fertilization, the sensitivity of soil N 2 O emission to precipitation was higher under high N than low N fertilization treatments, and the response ratios were 50.0% and 40.1%, respectively. There was significant interactive effect of precipitation intensity and N fertilization on soil N 2 O emission. Furthermore, these findings improved our understanding of precipitation and N impacts on soil N 2 O emissions and provided useful knowledge for irrigation and N fertilizer management in agriculture to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Concurrent Runtime Verification of Data Rich Events

This paper presents the open source runtime verification tool MESA (MEssage-based System Analysis), implemented in Scala, which supports concurrent monitors using the Actor model. Furthermore, the tool supports indexing (slicing) on the data values occurring in data-carrying events, for each individual monitor. The tool is generic in the sense that any monitoring system can be used for creating monitors. In this paper, we use the internal Scala DSL Daut for programming such in data parameterized state machines and temporal logic. To illustrate MESA/Daut, we present a case study that monitors flights from live U.S. airspace data streams, verifying that they conform to planned routes. With base in the case study, we then perform an extensive empirical study of the potential benefits from monitoring slices of a single property in concurrently executing actors. Due to the overhead of scheduling “small” actors (one for each slice or a small number of slices), it is not obvious that concurrent execution of such is beneficial. However, as a main result, we demonstrate that concurrent monitoring of slices to handle data-carrying events can provide considerable speed gains.

finite state machines↗

Coordinate-Based Seismic Interpolation in Irregular Land Survey: A Deep Internal Learning Approach

Physical and budget constraints often result in irregular sampling, which complicates accurate subsurface imaging. Preprocessing approaches, such as missing trace or shot interpolation, are typically employed to enhance seismic data in such cases. Recently, deep learning has been used to address the trace interpolation problem at the expense of large amounts of training data to adequately represent typical seismic events. Nonetheless, most research in this area has focused on trace reconstruction, with little attention having been devoted to shot interpolation. Furthermore, existing methods assume regularly spaced receivers/sources failing in approximating seismic data from real (irregular) surveys. This work presents a novel shot gather interpolation approach which uses a continuous coordinate-based representation of the acquired seismic wavefield parameterized by a neural network. The proposed unsupervised approach, which we call coordinate-based seismic interpolation (CoBSI), enables the prediction of specific seismic characteristics in irregular land surveys without using external data during neural network training. Importantly, experimental results on real and synthetic 3-D data validate the ability of the proposed method to estimate continuous smooth seismic events in the time-space and frequency-wavenumber domains, improving sparsity or low-rank-based interpolation methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using Discrete Event Simulation to Model Attacker Interactions with Cyber and Physical Security Systems

The number of connections between physical and cyber security systems is rapidly increasing due to centralized control from automated and remotely connected means. As the number of interfaces between systems continues to grow, the interactions and interdependencies between them cannot be ignored. Historically, physical and cyber vulnerability assessments have been performed independently. This independent evaluation omits important aspects of the integrated system, where the impacts resulting from malicious or opportunistic attacks are not easily known or understood. Here, we describe a discrete event simulation model that uses information about integrated physical and cyber security systems, attacker characteristics and simple response rules to identify key safeguards that limit an attacker's likelihood of success. Key features of the proposed model include comprehensive data generation to support a variety of sophisticated analyses, and full parameterization of safeguard performance characteristics and attacker behaviours to evaluate a range of scenarios. Lastly, we also describe the core data requirements and the network of networks that serves as the underlying simulation structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Level-2 Milestone 4468: Lorenz Simulation Interface Beta Release

The goal of Lorenz is to develop a sophisticated web-based framework as a front end to Livermore Computing Center resources. The primary features include: a personalized dashboard for each user, giving an at-a-glace overview of all computing center resources; a front-end to job submission and management; and a software framework to extend the convenience of web interfaces into simulation codes, including support for setting up, launching, steering, and monitoring simulations. Because the breadth of desktop operating systems in use both inside and outside LLNL spans all flavors of Linux, Mac, and Windows, the decision was made to use exclusively web-based technologies in Lorenz. Recent advancements in AJAX and Javascript programming, along with coming advances in the form of HTML5 and CSS3, made the browser the preferred development platform. The goal is to provide the user with a robust application interface that requires nothing more than a modern, standards-based web browser. This approach not only provides convenient access to Lorenz for internal and external users, but also has significant advantages over conventional applications in terms of rapid deployment and updates. The first phase of the Lorenz project is a system “dashboard”, known as MyLC, that gives LC users a rich set of portal applications, or “portlets”, from which to choose. Information that previously required knowledge of dozens of different commands, files, and web pages is now available in one convenient location. This includes account information, bank and disk usage, quotas, cluster utilization, news items, active jobs on LC systems, and more. The extensible software design of the dashboard allows users and staff members to develop their own portlets, and for them to be shared with all users or just within work groups. The second major phase of Lorenz was built on the idea that HPC centers are managed around batch processing, and “jobs” (or “runs”) progress through several discrete stages: setup, submission, queuing/waiting, running, completion, analysis, and archiving. Lorenz aims to ultimately tie all of these pieces together, including integration with the dashboard and application portals. In addition to helping guide users through the process of defining batch parameters, monitoring job progress, and interacting with jobs and job output, Lorenz also aims to promote access to additional tools and capabilities which to this point have been limited to use by power users. Ultimately Lorenz will assist users in choosing the appropriate resources, such as cluster and file system, given the requirements of a job. The third major phase of Lorenz, the subject of this milestone, is the development of an application portal. This involves teaming with application codes to provide a simple graphical interface to the simulations, which in turn seamlessly ties into job submission and monitoring. This will allow users to directly define simulation parameters and launch applications using a simple but powerful web front-end. Because many complex multi-physics codes can have thousands of inputs, providing a general GUI for building an input deck from scratch is impractical. However, most users of large applications start with an existing input file, and make some number of small changes to it. The application portal will feature a process that combines trusted and validated input files with a GUI that guides the user toward making the relatively minor changes needed for their particular problem. The input files will be in the form of templates, containing most of the data needed for a particular problem along with parameterization of changeable inputs. For expert users, there ultimately will be a way to edit the final input file directly - in the event that there are input changes needed that were not captured in the GUI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Atmospheric testbed workshop, August 5-6, 2013

A primary goal of the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) is to improve the predictive ability of regional and global climate models (GCMs). One set of tools used for evaluating and improving model predictions and projections are testbeds that combine data derived from observations and model simulations. In these testbeds, outputs of model simulations can be compared to observations of the climate system in order to identify errors and/or biases in the model simulations and determine the specific model processes that need improvements. Testbeds can also be used to provide scientific insights into dominant processes and process interactions as well as increase our understanding of the role of various physical processes involved in a particular case study or meteorological event. CESD currently funds multiple activities, which are developing testbeds to evaluate and improve atmospheric model parameterizations across a range of models, scales, and processes. For each of these testbeds, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility represents a primary source of observational data for evaluating the models. The Atmospheric System Research (ASR), Earth System Modeling (ESM), Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RGCM), and ARM program managers co-sponsored a workshop on atmospheric testbed activities across CESD. The workshop was held August 5-6, 2013, at the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Germantown facility. The principal objectives of the workshop were to survey the CESD testbed portfolios; identify the distinctive capabilities of each testbed as well as commonalities between the testbeds; identify areas for coordination and collaboration among testbeds; improve linkages between testbed activities and the ARM facility; identify gaps in testbed activities; and identify ways to improve coordination and communication among the testbeds and between the testbeds and the broader scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraints on the Dense Matter Equation of State and Neutron Star Properties from NICER’s Mass–Radius Estimate of PSR J0740+6620 and Multimessenger Observations

In recent years our understanding of the dense matter equation of state (EOS) of neutron stars has significantly improved by analyzing multimessenger data from radio/X-ray pulsars, gravitational wave events, and from nuclear physics constraints. Here we study the additional impact on the EOS from the jointly estimated mass and radius of PSR J0740+6620, presented in Riley et al. by analyzing a combined data set from X-ray telescopes NICER and XMM-Newton. We employ two different high-density EOS parameterizations: a piecewise-polytropic (PP) model and a model based on the speed of sound in a neutron star (CS). Here, at nuclear densities these are connected to microscopic calculations of neutron matter based on chiral effective field theory (EFT) interactions. In addition to the new NICER data for this heavy neutron star, we separately study constraints from the radio timing mass measurement of PSR J0740+6620, the gravitational wave events of binary neutron stars GW190425 and GW170817, and for the latter the associated kilonova AT2017gfo. By combining all these, and the NICER mass-radius estimate of PSR J0030+0451, we find the radius of a 1.4 M ⊙ neutron star to be constrained to the 95% credible ranges 12.33$^{+0.76}_{–0.81}$km (PP model) and 12.18$^{+0.56}_{–0.79}$km (CS model). In addition, we explore different chiral EFT calculations and show that the new NICER results provide tight constraints for the pressure of neutron star matter at around twice saturation density, which shows the power of these observations to constrain dense matter interactions at intermediate densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seismic Tomographic Modeling of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Israel and the Middle East: Improved Resolution through Optimized Model Parameterization

Accurate regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) predictions rely on regional phases (e.g., Pg, Lg, Pn, Sn ) to account for 3D effects in the crust and upper mantle that are not captured by 1D models traditionally used for real-time location. The RSTT prediction model accounts for regional-scale crust and upper mantle structure globally by incorporating regional seismic phases into its travel-time calculations. Previous versions of the RSTT model have used a constant grid cell size of 1°. To improve the tomographic accuracy of recovering velocity structure at regional scales, we, in this study, perform data-driven grid refinement on the RSTT model down to a 0.125° grid (~14 km) in pursuit of two main goals: (1) to test the limits of RSTT capability and accuracy of determined velocity structure through variable grid refinement and (2) to image smaller structures in Israel and the Middle East and illuminate upper mantle dynamics operating in this complex tectonic area. We investigate the effects of model parameterization as grid cell size decreases and the trade-offs between recovered velocity structures. Our final dataset includes 4751 events and 499 stations that recorded 79,344 Pn and 7489 Pg . The variable grid refinement method allows recovery of finer-scale velocity structures and reduces travel-time residuals in areas with the highest data coverage. At smaller grid cell sizes, longer paths need to be upweighted to stabilize the inversion. Results illuminate tectonic features undefined in coarser grid-size models; in particular, we observe mantle perturbations related to the subduction zone around the Cyprian arc and crustal anomalies near the Dead Sea fault and throughout the Anatolian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Machine Learning from Observations for Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Parameterizations and Analysis

Fusing learning from Earth observations from space and from the ground (e.g., ARM) with newly developed interpretable and generalizable physics-informed model structures to improve the parameterization of clouds and convection and advance the simulation, understanding and analysis of hydrological extreme events. This covers the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

atmospheric model↗

The MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in CloudSat/CALIPSO Data and GISS GCM Simulations

The relationship between convective penetration depth and tropospheric humidity is central to recent theories of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It has been suggested that general circulation models (GCMs) poorly simulate the MJO because they fail to gradually moisten the troposphere by shallow convection and simulate a slow transition to deep convection. CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data are analyzed to document the variability of convection depth and its relation to water vapor during the MJO transition from shallow to deep convection and to constrain GCM cumulus parameterizations. Composites of cloud occurrence for 10MJO events show the following anticipatedMJO cloud structure: shallow and congestus clouds in advance of the peak, deep clouds near the peak, and upper-level anvils after the peak. Cirrus clouds are also frequent in advance of the peak. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EarthObserving System (EOS) (AMSR-E) columnwater vapor (CWV) increases by;5 mmduring the shallow- deep transition phase, consistent with the idea of moisture preconditioning. Echo-top height of clouds rooted in the boundary layer increases sharply with CWV, with large variability in depth when CWV is between;46 and 68 mm. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud classifications reproduce these climatological relationships but correctly identify congestus-dominated scenes only about half the time. A version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2) GCM with strengthened entrainment and rain evaporation that produces MJO-like variability also reproduces the shallow-deep convection transition, including the large variability of cloud-top height at intermediate CWV values. The variability is due to small grid-scale relative humidity and lapse rate anomalies for similar values of CWV. 1.

DelGenio, Anthony G.↗

Improved Characterization of the Astrophysical Muon–neutrino Flux with 9.5 Years of IceCube Data

We present a measurement of the high-energy astrophysical muon–neutrino flux with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The measurement uses a high-purity selection of 650k neutrino-induced muon tracks from the northern celestial hemisphere, corresponding to 9.5 yr of experimental data. With respect to previous publications, the measurement is improved by the increased size of the event sample and the extended model testing beyond simple power-law hypotheses. An updated treatment of systematic uncertainties and atmospheric background fluxes has been implemented based on recent models. The best-fit single power-law parameterization for the astrophysical energy spectrum results in a normalization of ${\phi }_{@100\mathrm{TeV}}^{{\nu }_{\mu }+{\bar{\nu }}_{\mu }}={1.44}_{-0.26}^{+0.25}\times {10}^{-18}\,{\mathrm{GeV}}^{-1}{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}{\mathrm{sr}}^{-1}$ and a spectral index ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{SPL}}={2.37}_{-0.09}^{+0.09}$, constrained in the energy range from 15 TeV to 5 PeV. The model tests include a single power law with a spectral cutoff at high energies, a log-parabola model, several source-class-specific flux predictions from the literature, and a model-independent spectral unfolding. The data are consistent with a single power-law hypothesis, however, spectra with softening above one PeV are statistically more favorable at a two-sigma level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fault geometry inversion and slip distribution of the 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake from geodetic data

The 4 April 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in Baja, California, and Sonora, Mexico, had primarily right-lateral strike-slip motion and a minor normal-slip component. The surface rupture extended about 120 km in a NW-SE direction, west of the Cerro Prieto fault. We use geodetic measurements including near- to far-field GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), and subpixel offset measurements of radar and optical images to characterize the fault slip during the EMC event. We use dislocation inversion methods and determine an optimal nine-segment fault geometry, as well as a subfault slip distribution from the geodetic measurements. With systematic perturbation of the fault dip angles, randomly removing one geodetic data constraint, or different data combinations, we are able to explore the robustness of the inferred slip distribution along fault strike and depth. The model fitting residuals imply contributions of early postseismic deformation to the InSAR measurements as well as lateral heterogeneity in the crustal elastic structure between the Peninsular Ranges and the Salton Trough. We also find that with incorporation of near-field geodetic data and finer fault patch size, the shallow slip deficit is reduced in the EMC event by reductions in the level of smoothing. Finally, these results show that the outcomes of coseismic inversions can vary greatly depending on model parameterization and methodology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating Surface and Subsurface Water Balance Changes Due to Burn Severity

Forest fires have a significant impact on hydrology, such as reduced infiltration rates leading to increased flooding. However, post-fire water balance changes and the competing hydrologic response of increased runoff and evapotranspiration as a function of burn severity are not well understood. Comparing pre- and post-fire water balance changes is challenging because measurements of fire-disturbed landscapes with the previously undisturbed character are impractical due to non-repetitive observational conditions. We used a physically based modeling experiment to incorporate burn severity data from the Las Conchas fire to approximate model parameterization to evaluate continuous water balance progression for pre- and post-fire simulations using the same forcing conditions. Fire disturbance decreased evapotranspiration and increased overland flow response to precipitation events. The reduction of evapotranspiration often dominated the new water balance compared with the increase in overland flow, resulting in higher soil moisture. However, this modeling experiment also identified a tipping point where increased overland flow from high burn severity sites eclipses the effect of reduced evapotranspiration on the water balance, causing comparatively drier post-fire soils. In particular, high burn severity sites approach a threshold that results in larger changes to overland flow than changes in evapotranspiration, potentially moving the site to an overland flow dominated regime. The shifts in water balance components have implications for how site conditions will change under a range of burn severity scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗