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Relative error covariance analysis techniques and application

A technique for computing the error covariance of the difference between two estimators derived from different (possibly overlapping) data arcs is presented. The relative error covariance is useful for predicting the achievable consistency between Kalman-Bucy filtered estimates generated from two (not necessarily disjoint) data sets. The relative error covariance analysis technique is then applied to a Venus Orbiter simulation.

Wolff, Peter, J.

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.

Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators

This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.

Linear covariance analysis

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work on generalized covariance analysis methods. This prior work allowed for partitioning of the state space into "solve-for" and "consider" parameters, allowed for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator s anchor time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the "variance sandpile" and the "sensitivity mosaic," and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Carpenter, J. Russell

A VLBI variance-covariance analysis interactive computer program

An interactive computer program (in FORTRAN) for the variance covariance analysis of VLBI experiments is presented for use in experiment planning, simulation studies and optimal design problems. The interactive mode is especially suited to these types of analyses providing ease of operation as well as savings in time and cost. The geodetic parameters include baseline vector parameters and variations in polar motion and Earth rotation. A discussion of the theroy on which the program is based provides an overview of the VLBI process emphasizing the areas of interest to geodesy. Special emphasis is placed on the problem of determining correlations between simultaneous observations from a network of stations. A model suitable for covariance analyses is presented. Suggestions towards developing optimal observation schedules are included.

Bock, Y.

Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators

This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.

Markley, F. Landis

Co-Optimization of Navigation System Requirements and Trajectory Design Using a Sweeping Gradient Method and Linear Covariance Analysis

We describe the application of a sweeping gradient method for ordinary differential equations with events (SGM) and linear covariance analysis (LinCov) to the co-optimization of navigation system requirement generation and robust trajectory design. SGM is a method for computing the gradient of trajectory analyses defined by performance indices over initial value problems with events with respect to static parameters. LinCov is an analytic technique for predicting stochastic behavior of dynamical systems. By combining SGM and LinCov, it is possible use efficient, off-the-shelf, gradient-based optimizers to solve a combined robust optimal trajectory and navigation system design problem. In this paper, we formulate the required models to apply the combined SGM and LinCov techniques to a Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit rendezvous approach scenario and show results for several intermediate problems.

Benjamin W L Margolis

Linear Covariance Analysis For Proximity Operations Around Asteroid 2008 EV5

The NASA initiative to collect an asteroid the Asteroid Robotic Redirect Mission (ARRM) is currently investigating the option of retrieving a boulder off an asteroid, demonstrating planetary defense with an enhanced gravity tractor technique and returning it to a lunar orbit. Techniques for accomplishing this are being investigated by the Satellite Servicing Capabilities Office (SSOO) and NASA GSFC in colloboration with JPL, NASA, JSC, LaRC, and Draper Laboratories Inc. Two critical phases of the mission are the descent to the boulder and the Enhanced Gravity Tractor-enhanced gravity tractor demonstration. A linear covariance analysis was done for these phases to assess the feasibility of these concepts with the proposed design of the sensor and actuaor suite of the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV). The sensor suite for this analysis will include a wide field of view camera, Lidar, and a MMU. The proposed asteroid of interest is currently the C-type asteroid 2008 EV5, a carbonaceous chondrite that is of high interest to the scientific community. This paper will present an overview of the analysis discuss sensor and actuator models and address the feasibility of descending to the boulder within the requirements as the feasibility of maintaining the halo orbit in order to demonstrate the Enhanced Gravity Tractor-enhanced gravity tractory technique.

Guidance

Robust Trajectory Optimization Techniques Using a Sweeping Gradient Method and Linear Covariance Analysis

We present robust trajectory optimization techniques using a sweeping gradient method for ordinary differential equations with events (SGM) and linear covariance analysis (LinCov). SGM is a method for computing the gradient of trajectory analyses defined by performance indices over initial value problems with events with respect to static parameters. LinCov is an analytic technique for predicting stochastic behavior of dynamical systems. By combining SGM and LinCov, it is possible use efficient, off-the-shelf, gradient-based optimizers to solve robust optimal trajectory design problems. We describe the individual methods and some details on how they can be combined. Then we apply the combined techniques to a variety of orbital trajectory design problems to demonstrate its use, including minimum fuel transfer and mid-course correction burn scheduling.

Benjamin W L Margolis

Orbit determination covariance analysis for the Deep Space Program Science Experiment mission

To define an appropriate orbit support procedure for the DSPSE mission, detailed permission orbit determination covariance analyses have been performed for the translunar and trans-Geographos mission phases. Preliminary analyses were also performed for the lunar mapping mission phase. These analyses are designed to assess the tracking patterns and the amount of tracking data needed to obtain orbit solutions of required accuracy for each mission phase and before and after each major orbit perturbation, such as orbit maneuvers and flybys of the Earth and Moon. In addition to operational orbit determination procedures, these analyses identify major error sources, estimate their contribution to orbital errors, and address possible strategies to reduce orbit determination error. For the lunar orbit phase, several lunar gravity error modeling approaches have been investigated. The covariance analysis results presented in this paper will serve as a guide for providing orbit determination support for the DSPSE mission.

Beckman, M.

A Framework for Scaling in Filtering and Linear Covariance Analysis

Scaling is used extensively for numerical optimization and trajectory optimization. Its use in the estimation community is almost nonexistent. This paper creates the framework for practical scaling in space navigation, in general, and linear covariance analysis, in particular.

D'souza, Christopher N.

Asteroid approach covariance analysis for the Clementine mission

The Clementine mission is designed to test Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) technology, the Brilliant Pebbles and Brilliant Eyes sensors, by mapping the moon surface and flying by the asteroid Geographos. The capability of two of the instruments available on board the spacecraft, the lidar (laser radar) and the UV/Visible camera is used in the covariance analysis to obtain the spacecraft delivery uncertainties at the asteroid. These uncertainties are due primarily to asteroid ephemeris uncertainties. On board optical navigation reduces the uncertainty in the knowledge of the spacecraft position in the direction perpendicular to the incoming asymptote to a one-sigma value of under 1 km, at the closest approach distance of 100 km. The uncertainty in the knowledge of the encounter time is about 0.1 seconds for a flyby velocity of 10.85 km/s. The magnitude of these uncertainties is due largely to Center Finding Errors (CFE). These systematic errors represent the accuracy expected in locating the center of the asteroid in the optical navigation images, in the absence of a topographic model for the asteroid. The direction of the incoming asymptote cannot be estimated accurately until minutes before the asteroid flyby, and correcting for it would require autonomous navigation. Orbit determination errors dominate over maneuver execution errors, and the final delivery accuracy attained is basically the orbit determination uncertainty before the final maneuver.

Ionasescu, Rodica

Generalized Covariance Analysis For Remote Estimators

Technique developed to predict true covariance of stochastic process at remote location when control applied to process both by autonomous (local-estimator) control subsystem and remote (non-local-estimator) control subsystem. Intended orginally for design and evaluation of ground-based schemes for estimation of gyro parameters of Magellan spacecraft. Applications include variety of remote-control systems with and without delays. Potential terrestrial applications include navigation and control of industrial processes.

Boone, Jack N.

Linear Covariance Analysis for a Lunar Lander

A next-generation lunar lander Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) system, which includes a state-of-the-art optical sensor suite, is proposed in a concept design cycle. The design goal is to allow the lander to softly land within the prescribed landing precision. The achievement of this precision landing requirement depends on proper selection of the sensor suite. In this paper, a robust sensor selection procedure is demonstrated using a Linear Covariance (LinCov) analysis tool developed by Draper.

Jang, Jiann-Woei

A Covariance Analysis for the Determination of Baseline Observing GPS Satellites

Results of covariance analyses are presented for the determination of baseline vectors of length from 150 m to 4000 km. The data are doubly differenced ranges derived from the signals transmitted by the satellites of the Global Positioning System. The modeling of various error sources is described. The results indicate the low cost baseline determination system is capable of subdecimeter accuracy for baselines up to 1000 km in length.

Wu, S. C.

From Data to Insights: A Covariate Analysis of the IARPA BRIAR Dataset for Multimodal Biometric Recognition Algorithms at Altitude and Range

This paper examines covariate effects on fused whole body biometrics performance in the IARPA BRIAR dataset, specifically focusing on UAV platforms, elevated positions, and distances up to 1000 meters. The dataset includes outdoor videos compared with indoor images and controlled gait recordings. Normalized raw fusion scores relate directly to predicted false accept rates (FAR), offering an intuitive means for interpreting model results. A linear model is developed to predict biometric algorithm scores, analyzing their performance to identify the most influential covariates on accuracy at altitude and range. Weather factors like temperature, wind speed, solar loading, and turbulence are also investigated in this analysis. The study found that resolution and camera distance best predicted accuracy and findings can guide future research and development efforts in long-range/elevated/UAV biometrics and support the creation of more reliable and robust systems for national security and other critical domains.

Bolme, David