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Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the imp~ct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

Joyner, Claude R.↗

Towards Cost-Competitive Microreactors

To assess the cost competitiveness of microreactors, a new tool integrating reactor design calculations with economic models was developed. Using detailed cost data and design specifications from the MARVEL project (85 kWth), the tool estimates costs for a more representative commercial microreactor (20 MWth). The LCOE for a 20 MWth MARVEL-like reactor is estimated at $236/MWh, with an overnight cost of about $12,000/kW (excluding fuel). Mass production could reduce costs by 70%, making the 10th unit cost around $3,700/kWe, which is economically competitive. The new neutronics-economics coupling tool also enables studying the impact of the design parameters on the economic figures of merit. The impact of changing the enrichment and reactor capacity on the LCOE has been studied.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ASCot, the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool Suite: expanding our estimation horizons

The NASA Analogy Software Costing Tool Suite (ASCoT) consists of a cluster-based analogy estimator for estimating software development effort, a K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) analogy estimator for estimating effort and delivered lines of code, a simple regression-based cost estimating relationship (CER) model that estimates cost in dollars, and a probabilistic version of COCOMO II. In this paper we document the analogy algorithms as well as summarize the results of the performance of the KNN and the principle components (PCA) cluster analogy models. KNN performance is assessed by varying the number of inputs and number of neighbors. Four different clustering methods: K-means, Spectral Clustering, Hierarchical Clustering, and Principle Components Analysis (PCA), and their respective evaluation criterion are described in detail. The comparative performance of all four estimation models is assessed using magnitude of relative error (MRE) measurements.

Menzies, Tim↗

Advanced transportation system studies technical area 2 (TA-2): Heavy lift launch vehicle development: Program Cost estimates - volume 3

The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. The basic period of performance of the TA-2 contract was from May 1992 through May 1993. No-cost extensions were exercised on the contract from June 1993 through July 1995. This document is part of the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 is the Executive Summary, Volume 2 is Technical Results, and Volume 3 is Program Cost Estimates. The document-at-hand, Volume 3, provides a work breakdown structure dictionary, user's guide for the parametric life cycle cost estimation tool, and final report developed by ECON, Inc., under subcontract to Lockheed Martin on TA-2 for the analysis of heavy lift launch vehicle concepts.

McCurry, J. B.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2011

Topics covered include: Fused Reality for Enhanced Flight Test Capabilities; Thermography to Inspect Insulation of Large Cryogenic Tanks; Crush Test Abuse Stand; Test Generator for MATLAB Simulations; Dynamic Monitoring of Cleanroom Fallout Using an Air Particle Counter; Enhancement to Non-Contacting Stress Measurement of Blade Vibration Frequency; Positively Verifying Mating of Previously Unverifiable Flight Connectors; Radiation-Tolerant Intelligent Memory Stack - RTIMS; Ultra-Low-Dropout Linear Regulator; Excitation of a Parallel Plate Waveguide by an Array of Rectangular Waveguides; FPGA for Power Control of MSL Avionics; UAVSAR Active Electronically Scanned Array; Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) Simulator; Silicon Carbide Mounts for Fabry-Perot Interferometers; Measuring the In-Process Figure, Final Prescription, and System Alignment of Large; Optics and Segmented Mirrors Using Lidar Metrology; Fiber-Reinforced Reactive Nano-Epoxy Composites; Polymerization Initiated at the Sidewalls of Carbon Nanotubes; Metal-Matrix/Hollow-Ceramic-Sphere Composites; Piezoelectrically Enhanced Photocathodes; Iridium-Doped Ruthenium Oxide Catalyst for Oxygen Evolution; Improved Mo-Re VPS Alloys for High-Temperature Uses; Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool; Hybrid Power Management-Based Vehicle Architecture; Force Limit System; Levitated Duct Fan (LDF) Aircraft Auxiliary Generator; Compact, Two-Sided Structural Cold Plate Configuration; AN Fitting Reconditioning Tool; Active Response Gravity Offload System; Method and Apparatus for Forming Nanodroplets; Rapid Detection of the Varicella Zoster Virus in Saliva; Improved Devices for Collecting Sweat for Chemical Analysis; Phase-Controlled Magnetic Mirror for Wavefront Correction; and Frame-Transfer Gating Raman Spectroscopy for Time-Resolved Multiscalar Combustion Diagnostics.

Source record↗

Blind Validation Study of PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning by PRICE Systems, and System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware (SEER-H) by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. This study is an independent verification of the accuracy of these tools and was originally published in 2018. The purpose of this presentation is to circulate the findings of that study among the NASA cost community. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates; however, none of the missions fell within PRICE’s confidence intervals. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER-H which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER↗

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗

Streamlining the Design Tradespace for Earth Imaging Constellations

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

Science Data Processing↗

Satellite Constellation Cost Modeling: An Aggregate Model

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

Science Data Processing↗

The use of activity-based cost estimation as a management tool for cultural change

It will be shown that the greatest barrier to American exploration of the planet Mars is not the development of the technology needed to deliver humans and return them safely to earth. Neither is it the cost of such an undertaking, as has been previously suggested, although certainly, such a venture may not be inexpensive by some measures. The predicted costs of exploration have discouraged serious political dialog on the subject. And, in fact, even optimistic projections of the NASA budget do not contain the resources required, under the existing development and management paradigm, for human space exploration programs. It will be demonstrated that the perception of the costs of such a venture, and the cultural responses to the perceptions are factors inhibiting American exploration of the moon and the planet Mars. Cost models employed in the aerospace industry today correctly mirror the history of past space programs, and as such, are representative of the existing management and development paradigms. However, if, under this current paradigm no major exploration programs are feasible, then cost analysis methods based in the past may not have great utility in exploring the needed cultural changes. This paper explores the use of a new type of model, the activity based cost model, which will treat management style as an input variable, in a sense providing a tool whereby a complete, affordable program might be designed, including both the technological and management aspects.

Mandell, Humboldt↗

NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

McAfee, Julie↗

TCO Analysis Approach and Regional Analysis of dWPT for Class 8 Tractors

Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (dWPT) is a method by which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can charge their battery while traveling on the road without the need for a physical conductive connection to the power source. dWPT has been proposed as a strategy to enable a reduction in vehicle battery capacity and associated mass and cost. In this slide deck presented at the EVs@Scale Consortium - Wireless Power Transfer Pillar Deep-Dive Meeting on November 11th, 2023, NREL provides results from an evaluation of dWPT using data from Class 8 tractors driving in the Atlanta Metro Area. NREL selected data for archetypal days representing local, regional, and long-haul trips, defined according to trip length, that included travel on primary roadways. EVI-InMotion (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - InMotion), a systems planning and optimization tool developed at NREL, was used to evaluate dWPT performance assuming dWPT charging on 120 road segments for a total roadway lane distance of 2,365 miles. The EVI-InMotion results and representative day drive cycles were analyzed with NREL's T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) tool to estimate the total cost of ownership (TCO) for scenarios comprising two model years - 2030 and 2040 - and two technology progress cases. TCO was calculated for diesel, fuel cell electric, BEVs with batteries sized assuming no dWPT capabilities, and 200kWh BEVs with dWPT installed. This analysis finds that en-route stationary charging frequency and downtime when not on electrified roadways are the main contributors to TCO for the dWPT vehicles and that these vehicles can achieve cost parity with FCEVs at low electricity costs. Based on the scenario assumptions used here, low electricity costs would further help the cost parity with diesel vehicles in regional and long-haul cases due to stationary fueling downtime. This presentation also concludes that key factors affecting the parity potential of dWPT-capable vehicles include more extensive dWPT road coverage, higher en-route charging power, less expensive power batteries, and higher hydrogen or diesel fuel costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Optimal selection of space transportation fleet to meet multi-mission space program needs

A space program that spans several decades will be comprised of a collection of missions such as low earth orbital space station, a polar platform, geosynchronous space station, lunar base, Mars astronaut mission, and Mars base. The optimal selection of a fleet of several recoverable and expendable launch vehicles, upper stages, and interplanetary spacecraft necessary to logistically establish and support these space missions can be examined by means of a linear integer programming optimization model. Such a selection must be made because the economies of scale which comes from producing large quantities of a few standard vehicle types, rather than many, will be needed to provide learning curve effects to reduce the overall cost of space transportation if these future missions are to be affordable. Optimization model inputs come from data and from vehicle designs. Each launch vehicle currently in existence has a launch history, giving rise to statistical estimates of launch reliability. For future, not-yet-developed launch vehicles, theoretical reliabilities corresponding to the maturity of the launch vehicles' technology and the degree of design redundancy must be estimated. Also, each such launch vehicle has a certain historical or estimated development cost, tooling cost, and a variable cost. The cost of a launch used in this paper includes the variable cost plus an amortized portion of the fixed and development costs. The integer linear programming model will have several constraint equations based on assumptions of mission mass requirements, volume requirements, and number of astronauts needed. The model will minimize launch vehicle logistic support cost and will select the most desirable launch vehicle fleet.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

data mining↗