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Manual of computer program for probabilistic optimal launch vehicle assignment and budget smoothing model
A digital computer program for evaluating the weight and costs of advanced transport designs was developed. The resultant program, intended for use at the preliminary design level, incorporates both batch mode and interactive graphics run capability. The basis of the weight and cost estimation method developed is a unique way of predicting the physical design of each detail part of a vehicle structure at a time when only configuration concept drawings are available. In addition, the technique relies on methods to predict the precise manufacturing processes and the associated material required to produce each detail part. Weight data are generated in four areas of the program. Overall vehicle system weights are derived on a statistical basis as part of the vehicle sizing process. Theoretical weights, actual weights, and the weight of the raw material to be purchased are derived as part of the structural synthesis and part definition processes based on the computed part geometry.
The Poisson arrival model was used to determine the effects of limiting the number of channels for a disaster warning satellite. State probabilities and delay probabilities were estimated for several values of the number of channels (C) for arrival and service rates obtained from disaster warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The results predicted by the queueing model were compared with the results of a digital computer simulation.
A modified Poisson arrival, infinite server queuing model is used to determine the effects of limiting the number of broadcast channels (C) of a direct broadcast satellite used for public service purposes (remote health care, education, etc.). The model is based on the reproductive property of the Poisson distribution. A difference equation has been developed to describe the change in the Poisson parameter. When all initially delayed arrivals reenter the system a (C plus 1) order polynomial must be solved to determine the effective value of the Poisson parameter. When less than 100% of the arrivals reenter the system the effective value must be determined by solving a transcendental equation. The model was used to determine the minimum number of channels required for a disaster warning satellite without degradation in performance. Results predicted by the queuing model were compared with the results of digital simulation.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
Cost estimates for production of the electrical energy needed in the early twenty-first century are provided. Costs and performance of the Satellite Power System are compared with alternative methods of producing electrical energy.
The research and advanced development work is reported on a ballistic-mode, outer planet spacecraft using radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) power. The Thermoelectric Outer Planet Spacecraft (TOPS) project was established to provide the advanced systems technology that would allow the realistic estimates of performance, cost, reliability, and scheduling that are required for an actual flight mission. A system design of the complete RTG-powered outer planet spacecraft was made; major technical innovations of certain hardware elements were designed, developed, and tested; and reliability and quality assurance concepts were developed for long-life requirements. At the conclusion of its active phase, the TOPS Project reached its principal objectives: a development and experience base was established for project definition, and for estimating cost, performance, and reliability; an understanding of system and subsystem capabilities for successful outer planets missions was achieved. The system design answered long-life requirements with massive redundancy, controlled by on-board analysis of spacecraft performance data.
To address the data needs of energy system designers and to serve as a baseline for research and development, NETL has carried out a study to characterize the flexibility attributes - both performance and cost - of nine common commercial natural gas-fueled electricity generating units. The intermittent output of low-carbon, renewable power generation sources such as wind and solar create challenges to grid stability and reliability. Fossil-fueled power generation technologies are currently used to provide reliable, on-demand power during periods of reduced renewable output. Dispatchable generators must be able to accommodate increasing renewable generation as the nation pursues the Administration’s target of a decarbonized energy sector by 2035. As energy system experts seek to identify least-cost approaches to decarbonization, accurate cost and performance data characterizing dispatchable fossil generators that operate flexibly, at capacity factors that have been declining over time, and are needed to inform models for capacity expansion. Furthermore, these technologies continue to be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, providing the impetus for research and development, including the advancement and potential incorporation of carbon capture technologies. This study characterizes the cost and performance of select state-of-the-art natural gas-fueled power generation technologies: reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), simple cycle combustion turbines, and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC). An emphasis is placed on flexibility characteristics, such as part-load heat rate, ramp rates, start up times, and start up costs.
Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This, in turn, is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study, we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in enhanced geothermal system binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data, we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost. These results make a case for the inclusion of location-based weather data as inputs to supply curves that are used in capacity expansion models for the prediction of future geothermal deployment scenarios.
Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) model assists in design of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. LCP simulation of performance, cost and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. Provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of PV application.
Lifetime cost and performance (LCP) model assists in assessment of design options for photovoltaic systems. LCP is simulation of performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with photovoltaic power systems connected to electric-utility grid. LCP provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of application.
This presentation given at the 2021 ASME Turbo Expo (GT2021-58865) summarizes the techno-economic global optimization results of coal-fired utility scale power plants based on indirect sCO2 power cycles with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The performance and cost of four 10 MWe advanced solar thermal electric power plants sited in various regions of the continental United States was studied. Each region has different insolation characteristics which result in varying collector field areas, plant performance, capital costs and energy costs. The regional variation in solar plant performance was assessed in relation to the expected rise in the future cost of residential and commercial electricity supplied by conventional utility power systems in the same regions. A discussion of the regional insolation data base is presented along with a description of the solar systems performance and costs. A range for the forecast cost of conventional electricity by region and nationally over the next several decades is given.
Presentation by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) on performance and cost results of utilizing low rank coals and natural gas to produce electricity, including the effects of carbon capture. The coal plants are located in elevated terrain, and the natural gas plants are sited in the same conditions to allow comparability of elevation impacts. The study reports on overall performance of both fuel types, without and with carbon capture, and gives comparisons of the levelized cost of electricity for each unit. This presentation was given at the 2022 Pittsburgh Coal Conference.
Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This in turn is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in EGS binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost.
Presentation of our Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 1: Revision 4A to USEA.
Performance investigations were conducted on a combustor utilizing several cost-reducing innovations and designed for use in a low-cost 4448-N thrust turbojet engine for commercial light aircraft. Low-cost features included simple, air-atomizing fuel injectors; combustor liners of perforated sheet; and the use of inexpensive type 304 stainless-steel material. Combustion efficiencies at the cruise and sea-level-takeoff design points were approximately 97 and 98 percent, respectively. The combustor isothermal pressure loss was 6.3 percent at the cruise-condition diffuser inlet Mach number of 0.34. The combustor exit temperature pattern factor was less than 0.24 at both the cruise and sea-level-takeoff design points. The combustor exit average radial temperature profiles at all conditions were in very good agreement with the design profile.
Performance, constraints, configurations, and cost estimates on Delta and uprated Delta launch vehicles