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NASA NTRS1993

A wet-geology and cold-climate Mars model: Punctuation of a slow dynamic approach to equilibrium

It was suggested that Mars may have possessed a relatively warm humid climate and a vigorous hydrological cycle involving meteoric precipitation, oceans, and continental ice sheets. Baker hypothesized that these geologically active conditions may have been repeated several times; each of these dynamic epochs was followed by a collapse of the climate and hydrologic cycle of Mars into essentially current conditions, completing what is termed a 'Baker cycle'. The purpose is to present an endmember possibility that Martian glacial landscapes, including some that were previously considered to have formed under warm climatic conditions, might be explained by processes compatible with an extremely cold surface. Two aspects of hypothesized Martian glacial terrains were cited as favoring a warm climate during Baker cycles: (1) the formation of some landscapes, including possible eskers, tunnel channels, drumlins, and outwash plains, appears to have required liquid water, and (2) a liquid-surfaced ocean was probably necessary to feed the glaciers. The requirement for liquid water, if these features were correctly interpreted, is difficult to avoid; it is entirely possible that a comparatively warm climate was involved, but it is not clear that formation of landforms by wet-based glaciers actually requires a warm climate. Even less certain is the supposed requirement for liquid oceans. Formation of glaciers only requires a source of water or ice to supply an amount of precipitation that exceeds losses due to melting and sublimation. At Martian temperatures precipitation is very low, but so are melting and sublimation, so a large body of ice that is unstable with respect to sublimation may take the role of Earth's oceans in feeding the glaciers. Recent models suggest that even current Martian polar caps, long thought to be static bodies of ice and dust, might actually be slow-moving, cryogenic continental glaciers. Is it possible that subglacial processes beneath cryogenic (but wetbased) ice sheets formed the hypothesized Martian glacial landscapes?

Kargel, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Magnetized or Unmagnetized: Ambiguity Persists Following Galileo's Encounters with Io in 1999 and 2000

Magnetometer data from Galileo's close encounters with Io do not establish absolutely either the existence or absence of an internal magnetic moment because the measurements were made in regions where plasma currents contribute sizable magnetic perturbations. Data from an additional encounter where the closest approaches were made beneath Io's south polar regions, were lost. The recent passes enhance our understanding of the interaction of Io and its flux tube with the torus, and narrows the limits on possible internal sources of magnetic fields. Simple field-draping arguments account for some aspects of the observed rotations. Analyses in terms of both a magnetized and an unmagnetized Io are considered. Data from the February 2000 pass disqualify a strongly magnetized Io (surface equatorial field stronger than the background field) but do not disqualify a weakly magnetized Io (surface equatorial field of the order of Ganymede's but smaller than the background field at Io). Models imply that if Io is magnetized, its magnetic moment is not absolutely antialigned with the rotation axis. The inferred tilt is consistent with contributions from an inductive field on the order of those observed at Europa and Callisto. The currents would flow in the outer mantle or aesthenosphere if an induced field is present. Wave perturbations differing on flux tubes that do or do not link directly to Io and its ionosphere suggest the following: (1) the latter flux tubes are almost stagnant in Io's frame; and (2) a unipolar inductor correctly models the currents linking Io to Jupiter's ionosphere.

Kivelson, Margaret G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Systematic Approach to Isolating the Causes and Impacts of Climate Model Bias Employing Analysis Increments

One of the most promising approaches to isolating the causes and understanding the impacts of climate model formulation errors is through the utilization of information contained in short-term forecast errors. The underlying assumption being that by capturing the errors at the very early stages of growth (before nonlinearities develop), we should be able to associate those errors with specific deficiencies in the model's formulation of the relevant physical processes. Here, we provide an example of utilizing the long-term mean of the 6-hourly analysis increments (first guess forecast minus analysis) produced by MERRA-2 to correct the NASA/GEOS AGCM over well-defined regions, thereby allowing us to quantify how the reduced tendency errors in these regions manifest themselves both locally and remotely through large-scale teleconnections to reduce the model's climatological biases. We extend previous work (focused on boreal summer) to address the full annual cycle of model bias. A key result is the large seasonality of the errors over the Tibet region and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere jet biases, and related precipitation and temperature biases over North American. Attempts to correct the phase and amplitude errors of the climatological boreal winter ridge over western North America (a likely key requirement for improving winter climate forecasts over North America) reveal a surprising complexity in the sources of the errors in what is otherwise manifest as a rather simple PNA-like bias structure.

Schubert, S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Characterization and Correction of Aquarius Long Term Calibration Drift Using On-Earth Brightness Temperature Refernces

The Aquarius/SAC-D mission was launched on June 10, 2011 from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Aquarius consists of an L-band radiometer and scatterometer intended to provide global maps of sea surface salinity. One of the main mission objectives is to provide monthly global salinity maps for climate studies of ocean circulation, surface evaporation and precipitation, air/sea interactions and other processes. Therefore, it is critical that any spatial or temporal systematic biases be characterized and corrected. One of the main mission requirements is to measure salinity with an accuracy of 0.2 psu on montly time scales which requires a brightness temperature stability of about 0.1K, which is a challenging requirement for the radiometer. A secondary use of the Aquarius data is for soil moisture applications, which requires brightness temperature stability at the warmer end of the brightness temperature dynamic range. Soon after launch, time variable drifts were observed in the Aquarius data compared to in-situ data from ARGO and models for the ocean surface salinity. These drifts could arise from a number of sources, including the various components of the retrieval algorithm, such as the correction for direct and reflected galactic emission, or from the instrument brightness temperature calibration. If arising from the brightness temperature calibration, they could have gain and offset components. It is critical that the nature of the drifts be understood before a suitable correction can be implemented. This paper describes the approach that was used to detect and characterize the components of the drift that were in the brightness temperature calibration using on-Earth reference targets that were independent of the ocean model.

Aquarius↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Taxonomies for Searching Problem Reports and FMEAs

Many types of hazard and risk analyses are used during the life cycle of complex systems, including Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Reliability Analysis and analysis of Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) databases. The success of these methods depends on the availability of input data and the analysts knowledge. Standard nomenclature can increase the reusability of hazard, risk and problem data. When nomenclature in the source texts is not standard, taxonomies with mapping words (sets of rough synonyms) can be combined with semantic search to identify items and tag them with metadata based on a rich standard nomenclature. Semantic search uses word meanings in the context of parsed phrases to find matches. The NASA taxonomies provide the word meanings. Spacecraft taxonomies and ontologies (generalization hierarchies with attributes and relationships, based on terms meanings) are being developed for types of subsystems, functions, entities, hazards and failures. The ontologies are broad and general, covering hardware, software and human systems. Semantic search of Space Station texts was used to validate and extend the taxonomies. The taxonomies have also been used to extract system connectivity (interaction) models and functions from requirements text. Now the Reconciler semantic search tool and the taxonomies are being applied to improve search in the Space Shuttle PRACA database, to discover recurring patterns of failure. Usual methods of string search and keyword search fall short because the entries are terse and have numerous shortcuts (irregular abbreviations, nonstandard acronyms, cryptic codes) and modifier words cannot be used in sentence context to refine the search. The limited and fixed FMEA categories associated with the entries do not make the fine distinctions needed in the search. The approach assigns PRACA report titles to problem classes in the taxonomy. Each ontology class includes mapping words - near-synonyms naming different manifestations of that problem class. The mapping words for Problems, Entities and Functions are converted to a canonical form plus any of a small set of modifier words (e.g. non-uniformity NOT + UNIFORM.) The report titles are parsed as sentences if possible, or treated as a flat sequence of word tokens if parsing fails. When canonical forms in the title match mapping words, the PRACA entry is associated with the corresponding Problem, Entity or Function in the ontology. The user can search for types of failures associated with types of equipment, clustering by type of problem (e.g., all bearings found with problems of being uneven: rough, irregular, gritty ). The results could also be used for tagging PRACA report entries with rich metadata. This approach could also be applied to searching and tagging failure modes, failure effects and mitigations in FMEAs. In the pilot work, parsing 52K+ truncated titles (the test cases that were available), has resulted in identification of both a type of equipment and type of problem in about 75% of the cases. The results are displayed in a manner analogous to Google search results. The effort has also led to the enrichment of the taxonomy, adding some new categories and many new mapping words. Further work would make enhancements that have been identified for improving the clustering and further reducing the false alarm rate. (In searching for recurring problems, good clustering is more important than reducing false alarms). Searching complete PRACA reports should lead to immediate improvement.

Malin, Jane T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

High speed turboprop aeroacoustic study (single rotation). Volume 1: Model development

A frequency-domain noncompact-source theory for the steady loading and volume-displacement (thickness) noise of high speed propellers has been developed and programmed. Both near field and far field effects have been considered. The code utilizes blade surface pressure distributions obtained from three-dimensional nonlinear aerodynamic flow field analysis programs as input for evaluating the steady loading noise. Simplified mathematical models of the velocity fields induced at the propeller disk by nearby wing and fuselage surfaces and by angle-of-attack operation have been developed to provide estimates of the unsteady loading imposed on the propeller by these potential field type interactions. These unsteady blade loadings have been coupled to a chordwise compact propeller unsteady loading noise model to provide predictions of unsteady loading noise caused by these installation effects. Finally, an analysis to estimate the corrections to be applied to the free-field noise predictions in order to arrive at the measurable fuselage sound pressure levels has been formulated and programmed. This analysis considers the effects of fuselage surface reflection and diffraction together with surface boundary layer refraction. The steady loading and thickness model and the unsteady loading model have been verified using NASA-supplied data for the SR-2 and SR-3 model propfans. In addition, the steady loading and thickness model has been compared with data from the SR-6 model propfan. These theoretical models have been employed in the evaluation of the SR-7 powered Gulfstream aircraft in terms of noise characteristics at representative takeoff, cruise, and approach operating conditions. In all cases, agreement between theory and experiment is encouraging.

Whitfield, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Standardization of Rocket Engine Pulse Time Parameters

Plumes of bipropellant thrusters are a source of contamination. Small bipropellant thrusters are often used for spacecraft attitude control and orbit correction. Such thrusters typically operate in a pulse mode, at various pulse lengths. Quantifying their contamination effects onto spacecraft external surfaces is especially important for long-term complex-geometry vehicles, e.g. International Space Station. Plume contamination tests indicated the presence of liquid phase contaminant in the form of droplets. Their origin is attributed to incomplete combustion. Most of liquid-phase contaminant is generated during the startup and shutdown (unsteady) periods of thruster pulse. These periods are relatively short (typically 10-50 ms), and the amount of contaminant is determined by the thruster design (propellant valve response, combustion chamber size, thruster mass flow rate, film cooling percentage, dribble volume, etc.) and combustion process organization. Steady-state period of pulse is characterized by much lower contamination rates, but may be lengthy enough to significantly conh'ibute to the overall contamination effect. Because there was no standard methodology for thruster pulse time division, plume contamination tests were conducted at various pulse durations, and their results do not allow quantifying contaminant amounts from each portion of the pulse. At present, the ISS plume contamination model uses an assumption that all thrusters operate in a pulse mode with the pulse length being 100 ms. This assumption may lead to a large difference between the actual amounts of contaminant produced by the thruster and the model predictions. This paper suggests a way to standardize thruster startup and shutdown period definitions, and shows the usefulness of this approach to better quantify thruster plume contamination. Use of the suggested thruster pulse time-division technique will ensure methodological consistency of future thruster plume contamination test programs, and allow accounting for thruster pulse length when modeling plume contamination and erosion effects.

Larin, Max E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Preliminary assessment of the accuracy and precision of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data with respect to the large-scale ocean circulation

TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height measurements are examined for quantitative consistency with known elements of the oceanic general circulation and its variability. Project-provided corrections were accepted but are at tested as part of the overall results. The ocean was treated as static over each 10-day repeat cycle and maps constructed of the absolute sea surface topography from simple averages in 2 deg x 2 deg bins. A hybrid geoid model formed from a combination of the recent Joint Gravity Model-2 and the project-provided Ohio State University geoid was used to estimate the absolute topography in each 10-day period. Results are examined in terms of the annual average, seasonal average, seasonal variations, and variations near the repeat period. Conclusion are as follows: the orbit error is now difficult to observe, having been reduced to a level at or below the level of other error sources; the geoid dominates the error budget of the estimates of the absolute topography; the estimated seasonal cycle is consistent with prior estimates; shorter-period variability is dominated on the largest scales by an oscillation near 50 days in spherical harmonics Y(sup m)(sub 1)(theta, lambda) with an amplitude near 10 cm, close to the simplest alias of the M(sub 2) tide. This spectral peak and others visible in the periodograms support the hypothesis that the largest remaining time-dependent errors lie in the tidal models. Though discrepancies attribute to the geoid are within the formal uncertainties of the good estimates, removal of them is urgent for circulation studies. Current gross accuracy of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission is in the range of 5-10 cm, distributed overbroad band of frequencies and wavenumbers. In finite bands, accuracies approach the 1-cm level, and expected improvements arising from extended mission duration should reduce these numbers by nearly an order of magnitude.

Wunsch, Carl↗
NASA NTRS2007

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Nature and Evolutionary History of GRO J1744-28

GRO J1744-28 is the first known X-ray source to display bursts, periodic pulsations, and quasi-periodic oscillations. This source may thus provide crucial clues that will lead to an understanding of the differences in the nature of the X-ray variability from various accreting neutron stars. The orbital period is 11.8 days, and the measured mass function of 1.31 x 10(exp -4) solar mass is one of the smallest among all known binaries. If we assume that the donor star is a low-mass giant transferring matter through the inner Lagrange point, then we can show that its mass is lower than approximately 0.7 solar mass and probably closer to 0.25 solar mass. Higher mass, but unevolved, donor stars are shown to be implausible. We also demonstrate that the current He core mass of the donor star lies in the range of 0.20-0.25 solar mass. Thus, this system is most likely in the final stages of losing its hydrogen-rich envelope, with only a small amount of mass remaining in the envelope. If this picture is correct, then GRO J1744-28 may well represent the closest observational link that we have between the low-mass X-ray binaries and recycled binary pulsars in wide orbits. We have carried out a series of binary evolution calculations and explored, both systematically and via a novel Monte Carlo approach, the range of initial system parameters and input physics that can lead to the binary parameters of the present-day GRO J1744-28 system. The input parameters include both the initial total mass and the core mass of the donor star, the neutron-star mass, the strength of the magnetic braking, the mass-capture fraction, and the specifics of the core mass/radius relation for giants. Through these evolution calculations, we compute probability distributions for the current binary system parameters (i.e., the total mass, core mass, radius, luminosity, and K-band magnitude of the donor star, the neutron star mass, the orbital inclination angle, and the semimajor axis of the binary). Our calculations yield the following values for the GRO J1744-28 system parameters (with 95% confidence limits in parentheses): donor star mass: 0.24 solar mass (0.2-0.7 solar mass); He core mass of the donor star: 0.22 solar mass (0.20-0.25 solar mass); neutron-star mass: 1.7 solar mass (1.39-1.96 solar mass); orbital inclination angle: 18deg (7deg-22deg); semi- major axis: 64 lt-s (60-67 lt-s); radius of the donor star: 6.2 solar radius(6-9 solar radius); luminosity of donor star: 23 solar luminosity (15-49 solar luminosity), and long-term mass transfer rate at the current epoch: 5 x 10(exp -10)solar mass/yr (2 x 10(exp -10) to 5 x 10(exp -9)solar mass/yr). We deduce that the magnetic field of the underlying neutron star lies in the range of approximately 1.8 x 10(exp 11)G to approximately 7 x 10(exp 11)G, with a most probable value of 2.7 x 10(exp 11)G. This is evidently sufficiently strong to funnel the accretion flow onto the magnetic polar caps and suppress the thermonuclear flashes that would otherwise give rise to the type 1 X-ray bursts observed in most X-ray bursters. We present a simple paradigm for magnetic accreting neutron stars where X-ray pulsars, GRO J1744-28, the Rapid Burster, and the type 1 X-ray bursters may form a continuum of possible behaviors among accreting neutron stars, with the strength of the neutron-star magnetic field serving as a crucial parameter that determines the mode of X-ray variability from a given object.

Rappaport, S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗