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Comparison of GOES16 Data with the TRACER-ESCAPE Field Campaign Dataset for Convection Characterization: A Selection of Case Studies and Lessons Learnt

Convective updrafts are one of the main characteristics of convective clouds, responsible for the convective mass flux and the redistribution of energy and condensate in the atmosphere. During the early stages of their lifecycle, convective clouds experience rapid cloud-top ascent manifested by a decrease in the geostationary IR brightness temperature (𝑇⁢𝐵 𝐼⁢𝑅 ). Under the assumption that the convective cloud top behaves like a black body, the ascent rate of the convective cloud top can be estimated as ($\frac{∂𝑇⁢𝐵_{𝐼⁢𝑅}}{∂𝑡}$), and it can be used to infer the near cloud-top convective updraft. The temporal resolution of the geostationary IR measurements and non-uniform beam-filling effects can influence the convective updraft estimation. However, the main shortcoming until today was the lack of independent verification of the strength of the convective updraft. Here, Doppler radar observations from the ESCAPE and TRACER field experiments provide independent estimates of the convective updraft velocity at higher spatiotemporal resolution throughout the convective core column and can be used to evaluate the updraft velocity estimates from the IR cooling rate for limited samples. Isolated convective cells were tracked with dedicated radar (RHIs and PPIs) scans throughout their lifecycle. Radial Doppler velocity measurements near the convective cloud top are used to provide estimates of convective updrafts. These data are compared with the geostationary IR and VIS channels (from the GOES satellite) to characterize the convection evolution and lifecycle based on cloud-top cooling rates.

TRACER/ESCAPE field campaign

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Rapid SACR Observations of Convection at Bankhead National Forest (RAPID) Field Campaign Report

Improving our representation of convective cell processes requires better quantification of convective clouds throughout their entire life cycle. This includes gaining a clearer understanding of the controls on key convective cloud properties, such as updraft intensity, particle size distributions, rainfall rates, and hydrometeor species. Our inability to improve convective cloud process modeling stems, in part, from a limited understanding of convective cell properties, particularly given how rapidly these storms evolve. This lack of detailed observations in the most intense and organized convective storms is especially significant, as large errors remain in representing these clouds, which are critical for severe weather prediction and Earth system model performance. Cloud and precipitation radars are essential tools for studying cloud microphysics and dynamics, particularly in deeper convective clouds. The recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s third Mobile Facility (AMF3) Bankhead National Forest (BNF) deployment provides a unique opportunity to investigate important land–atmosphere interactions, as well as the environmental controls on deep convective cloud processes, in a location favorable for frequent convection. We operate the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (X/Ka SACR) using a scan strategy optimized to capture these rapidly evolving clouds and their properties, thereby improving studies of deep convective cloud processes. This effort is strengthened by a complementary and coordinated partnership with ongoing university and multi-agency radar activities collocated in north Alabama—a unique opportunity to examine clouds and precipitation from a lifetime-centric perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien

The Effect of Updraft Entrainment on Convective Cell Deepening in Realistic Large-Eddy Simulations

Entrainment of surrounding cooler and drier air into convective updrafts is one of the key processes that influence deep convection initiation and growth. Numerous studies have investigated the effect of entrainment on isolated convective cloud growth in idealized simulations, but the importance of this effect in realistic conditions with many interacting convective clouds remains uncertain. We examine the impact of entrainment on the depth reached by convective clouds in realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) over central Argentina during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Cloudy updrafts and their associated properties are assigned to convective cells tracked with radar reflectivity signatures. Several thousand convective cells are tracked over two high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two low CAPE cases that support cells of varying depths and intensities. Entrainment is calculated explicitly as the fluxes of air into the outer surface of each cloudy updraft. Single-predictor logistic regression models are used to determine the relative importance of updraft, near-updraft, and preconvective initiation atmospheric conditions in predicting whether convective cells become deep. We then build a multiple-predictor regression model pairing important updraft and meteorological metrics with fractional entrainment rate. The probability of cells transitioning to deep convection is most sensitive to ambient 600-hPa relative humidity (42% of total metric contribution to cloud depth predictability), followed by low-level CAPE (28%), cloud-base updraft width (19%), and fractional entrainment (11%). Thus, the initial width of the updraft along with potential buoyancy and its dilution through the midtroposphere collectively determine whether deep convection will result from shallower clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

A Decadal Hybrid GCM Simulation Using Deep‐Learning‐Based Cloud and Convection Parameterization Generalized to a Warm Climate

A critical challenge for machine‐learning (ML) parameterization in global climate models (GCMs) is to achieve stable, accurate simulations under climates not seen during training. Previous studies have demonstrated promising offline performance and year‐long online stability in aquaplanet simulations but have encountered difficulties in real geography and under climate warming. Here we report that a GCM with real geography configuration using neural‐network‐based cloud and convection parameterization, trained exclusively with present‐day climate data, successfully performs a stable, decade‐long simulation of a warm climate with +4 K sea surface temperature (SST). The neural network (NN) is based on Han et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003508 ) with additional inputs. The simulation captures the global precipitation distribution, surface temperatures, vertical atmospheric structures, and extreme precipitation very well, closely matching simulations from both the superparameterized CAM (SPCAM) and the conventional CAM5 in the warm climate without accuracy degradation compared to those in the baseline climate. Moreover, it produces a climate response to +4 K SST in atmospheric thermodynamic states and circulations similar to those from SPCAM and CAM5. Prognostic ablation tests on NN input variables show that the NN without convective memory as input suffers from numerical instability, and the NN without considering radiative variables and land fraction as input, or with reduced training samples produce less accurate results. To our knowledge, this is the first time an ML parameterization successfully achieves online extrapolation to a warm climate without using additional warm‐climate data for training. It demonstrates the potential of ML‐driven parameterizations for credible long‐term climate projections.

Atmosphere model

Enhanced Convective Microphysics Scheme and Its Impacts on Mean Climate in E3SM

Abstract To improve the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds and their interaction with aerosol and stratiform clouds, a two‐moment convective microphysics parameterization (CMP) scheme developed by Song and Zhang (2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014833 ) is upgraded and implemented in E3SM. The new developments include: (a) implementing a parameterization for graupel to enhance the representation of ice‐phase microphysical processes; (b) representing the impact of spatial inhomogeneity of cloud droplets in cumulus ensembles on autoconversion and accretion processes to improve the representation of warm‐rain microphysical processes; (c) implementing a comprehensive Bergeron process parameterization to better represent mixed‐phase microphysical processes; and (d) representing the interactions between ice‐phase microphysics and cloud thermodynamics. Simulations show that the cloud microphysical properties simulated by the CMP are generally in good agreement with observations. It reasonably simulates the changes in droplets effective radius related to precipitation formation in convective clouds, as identified from satellite observations. It also successfully simulates the contrast in these processes between maritime and continental clouds, demonstrating its capability to simulate the impact of aerosols on convection. Analyses of the impact of CMP on climate mean state simulation demonstrate that the CMP slightly improves the simulations of precipitation, cloud macrophysical properties, longwave cloud radiative forcing, zonal wind, and temperature. However, a degradation in shortwave cloud radiative forcing occurs.

GCM

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Variability in Ice Nucleating Particles Across Greater Houston Texas

The concentration and cloud-forming potential of a region's ice nucleating particle (INP) population have uncertain impacts on deep convective clouds. Specifically, ice nucleating particles (INPs) may affect various cloud properties related to the formation, lifetime, and precipitation of deep convective clouds. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's TRacking Aerosol and Convection interaction ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign, researchers from Texas A&M University deployed three Davis Rotating-drum Universal-size-cut Monitoring (DRUM) samplers throughout Greater Houston, Texas from June through September 2022. Ambient particles, collected at the surface with the DRUM samplers in four aerodynamic diameter size ranges (>3, 3–1.2, 1.2–0.34, and 0.34–0.15 μm), were analyzed in offline cold-stage ice nucleation experiments. The INP population in Greater Houston is complex, varying by site and day, but can be generalized by a weak to moderately efficient mode of INPs at −24°C and an efficient mode at −15°C. Analysis reveals that supermicron particles are largely responsible for ice nucleation warmer than −20°C across the region while submicron particles dominate at temperatures colder than −20°C. Additionally, significant spatial diversity in the INP population was observed, with differences in mean nucleation temperature between sites for nearly every size cut. Although INP concentrations were typically ∼0.08 L −1 at −20°C throughout the campaign, a notable region-wide increase in INP concentration for particles freezing at temperatures warmer than −20°C occurred from mid-August to mid-September. This comprehensive characterization of Greater Houston's INP population, including spatial, temporal, and particle size variations, can help constrain ice microphysics parameterizations in weather and climate models.

Thompson, Seth A. [Texas A & M Univ., College Stat

Radar and lidar based cloud type product at the ARM ENA observatory

Following methods outlined in Remillard et al. (2012), we classify seven cloud types using radar reflectivity, best-estimated cloud base, and cloud-layer product from the Active Remotely Sensed Cloud Locations (ARSCL) product (Kollias et al. 2007). A cloud mask is created based on the detectable radar reflectivity (>-40 dBZ) combined with the best-estimated cloud base height. Each cloud object is analyzed individually as contiguous cloudy pixels, and its type is determined based on the cloud’s boundaries and duration. Focusing on marine boundary-layer clouds, low clouds are further classified into four types: shallow cumulus, broken stratocumulus (Sc) or cumulus clouds, single-layer Sc, and multi-layer Sc or Sc coupled with cumulus. The remaining three categories are middle clouds, high clouds, and deep convective clouds. For detailed definition of each cloud type, please refer to Zheng et al. (2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Direct high-altitude observations of 2-methyltetrols in the gas- and particle phase in air masses from Amazonia

We present direct observations of 2-methyltetrol (C 5 H 12 O 4 ) in the gas- and particle phase from the deployment of a Filter Inlet for Gases and Aerosols coupled to a Time-of-Flight Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (FIGAERO-CIMS) during the Southern Hemisphere High Altitude Experiment on Particle Nucleation and Growth (SALTENA), which took place between December 2017 and June 2018 at the high-altitude Global Atmosphere Watch station Chacaltaya (CHC) located at 5240 m a s l in the Bolivian Andes. 2-Methyltetrol signals were dominant in a factor resulting from Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) identified as influenced by Amazon emissions. We combine these observations with investigations of isoprene oxidation chemistry and uptake in an isolated deep convective cloud in the Amazon using a photochemical box model with coupled cloud microphysics and show that, likely, 2-methyltetrol is taken up by hydrometeors or formed in situ in the convective cloud, and then transported in the particle phase in the cold environment of the Amazon outflow and to the station, where it partially evaporates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Advancing Understanding of Deep Convective Anvil Clouds

In this project we use ground-based DOE ARM observations, satellite observations, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to arrive at a more complete understanding (or, new theory) of how atmospheric heating profiles in thunderstorm cores drives how quickly air rises in the storms. The rate at which air motion increases or decreases with altitude directly relates to how much cloud mass is ejected laterally into the adjacent atmosphere, which then influences the development and maintenance of “stratiform raining cloud anvils”. Our work has led to new equations connecting the heating in these thunderstorms to these stratiform clouds, with the connection modulated by the stability structure of the atmosphere (i.e., if more stable, then a more rapid change in thunderstorm heating with altitude results in more stratiform cloud, independent of whether over land or ocean, or how organized the thunderstorms are). Improving knowledge of stratiform clouds is important, since they contribute to substantial accumulated rainfall (important to agriculture and local hydrology) as well as radiation, given their large areal extents and lifetime. The radiation impacts likely impact simulated cloud feedback in all Earth System models (ESMs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban Land Surface Effects on Summertime Clouds and Moist Convection in Houston Under Different Synoptic Conditions

Urban landscapes modify cloud formation and convection through complex thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes; however, their influence under different synoptic regimes remains poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of the Houston metropolitan area on summertime cloud cover and convective cell characteristics using a combination of satellite observations, radar data, and high-resolution process-based modeling. We isolate urban effects by comparing model simulations with realistic urban land cover against hypothetical scenarios where all urban areas are replaced by rural vegetation. Results reveal that Houston's land cover consistently enhances cloud fraction and convective activity relative to surrounding rural areas, altered by large-scale meteorological forcing. Under weakly forced conditions, enhanced surface heat flux primarily contributes to driving low-level convergence and vertical ascent, leading to over 8% cloud fraction increase between 2 and 6 km over the city. Under strongly forced conditions, urban influences manifest differently depending on cloud type. For non-convective clouds, the city acts as a barrier that decelerates and lifts moist southerly inflow, increasing low cloud cover over the urban core, while decreasing it downwind the city. For convective clouds, both synoptic ascent and urbanization modulate moisture redistribution and cloud structure, producing modest cloud enhancement over the city and slight suppression over the downwind area. Urbanization exerts small changes in the intensity of the convective cells; however, it significantly decreases their duration and traveling distance. This work highlights the importance of accounting for land surface heterogeneity in modeling clouds and precipitation and demonstrates that urban impacts on clouds are highly regime-dependent.

Liu, Ye [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PN

Causal machine learning uncovers conditions for convective intensification driven by organic and sulfate aerosols

Aerosols are often hypothesized to invigorate deep convective clouds (DCCs), but observational evidence remains limited and inconclusive. Clarifying this hypothesis is critical for regions vulnerable to thunderstorms and flooding, particularly highly polluted coastal cities. Leveraging a novel causal discovery–inference pipeline and high-resolution observations near Houston, TX, we identify multiple causal pathways among aerosols (mostly organic and sulfate), DCCs, and meteorological factors. However, a direct causal link from aerosols to DCCs is found to be uncommon, occurring in less than 35% of analyzed scenarios, and is characterized by strong conditionality and nonlinearity. When aerosol impacts on DCCs do occur, they can be substantial, enhancing DCC core heights by approximately 1.7 km, with 92% of this effect concentrated in warmer-phase cloud regions. Notably, the presence of sea breezes and the inclusion of all measured aerosol particles each enhance DCCs in over 95% of aerosol-sensitive cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Shallow cloud variability in Houston, Texas, during the ESCAPE and TRACER field experiments

Shallow convection plays an important role in Earth's climate system by regulating the vertical transport of heat, moisture, and momentum in the lower troposphere. Aerosols, large-scale meteorology, and low-level convergence influence the spatiotemporal variability in shallow convection, and the coastal urban area of Houston, Texas, is an ideal laboratory to investigate these complex interactions. Here, geostationary satellite and ground-based radar observations from June to September 2022 during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaigns are used to characterize the spatial coverage, vertical extent, and precipitation fraction of shallow convective clouds. The fused operational remote sensing datasets over a 250 km × 250 km domain are evaluated against profiling observations. The domain-wide diurnal shallow cloud fractions are used to identify four distinct modes of shallow convection. In all clusters, the domain-wide cloud fractions are consistently higher than the domain-wide precipitation fractions, and shallow cloud fractions are higher over water than they are over land, while the shallow precipitation fractions show the opposite behavior. In the two modes with minimal deep cloud activity, shallow cloud frequency is highest over ocean in the early morning, and there is a transition to higher shallow cloud frequency over land by the afternoon in one cluster or to high shallow cloud frequencies everywhere by the afternoon in the other. Lastly, we find regions with higher shallow cloud top heights and a large region along the coastline where shallow clouds are more likely to precipitate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES