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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Realistic Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in Global Convection-Permitting Models by Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems

Accurately representing the precipitation diurnal cycle has long been a challenge for global climate models (GCMs). Here we evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle in the DYAMOND global convection-permitting models (CPMs) and CMIP6 HighResMIP models. Comparison of the high- (25–50 km) and low-resolution (100–250 km) models with parameterized convection in HighResMIP shows that simply increasing model resolution does not noticeably improve the precipitation diurnal cycle. In contrast, CPMs can better capture the observed amplitude and timing of precipitation diurnal cycle. However, the simulated spatial variation of timing in CPMs is smaller than observed, leading to an exaggeration of the spatially averaged diurnal amplitude. The better-simulated precipitation diurnal cycle in the CPMs is tied to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute about half of the total precipitation. The observed life cycle of MCSs, including initiation and mature stages, is well captured in the CPMs, leading to a more realistic precipitation diurnal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel closed-form inversion of the convection–diffusion equation for rapid convection, diffusion, and source profile estimation

To simplify and routinize particle transport analysis in fusion devices, a novel closed form linear inversion of the 1-D convection diffusion equation to estimate diffusion and convection profiles D(r ⃗ ), v(r ⃗ ) and source distribution s(r ⃗ ), of a single species from measured data is derived and demonstrated on synthetic data. Profile estimates of D(r ⃗ ), v(r ⃗ ), s(r ⃗ ) and their uncertainties are given as a matrix expression constructed directly from the incoming density data of the transported species in space and time, as well as physics assumptions such as particle conservation and experimental geometry. The derived matrix expression can be applied to a pumped or non-pumped recycling species, or a non-recycling species that is effectively “pumped” by plasma-facing surfaces.

Hinson, Edward [ORNL] (ORCID:000000019713140X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity CFD Simulation of Mixed Convection and Forced Convection in a Pebble Bed Test Reactor Core

The Hermes low-power [35-MW(thermal)] reactor will be built and operated by Kairos Power LLC (KP) to demonstrate its fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) technology. In the KP FHR, the reactor core is composed of randomly packed pebbles with TRISO fuel particles inside with FLiBe flow upward through the core acting as a coolant. Previous numerical and experimental studies have been limited to either a small-size bed or to a lack of detailed measurements for heat transfer. Here, to address the lack of high-fidelity heat transfer data in a real-size FHR core, in this study, we simulated a pebble bed core with 34 374 pebbles randomly packed, similar to the Hermes reactor's size. The core radius was 14 times that of the pebble diameter, while the core height was 45 times. In this work, we were particularly interested in a mixed convection regime, where buoyancy is important. Therefore, we performed several large-eddy simulations at different Reynolds numbers (160 to 1000) with gravitational force included. The spectral element computational fluid dynamics code NekRS with graphics processing unit acceleration was used for this study. The low-Mach number approximation was applied to address property changes in the FLiBe and to account for buoyancy. A pure hexahedral mesh with 60 million elements was generated by the Voronoi cell method. At the polynomial order of 5, the total degrees of freedom was 7.5 billion. The developed case in this work is the first of its kind in terms of size and complexity. The local numerical data across the domain were obtained and compared with empirical correlations. After examining the data, we found the following conclusions. For pressure drop, the Reger correlation predicted less than a 5% error. On the other hand, for heat transfer, the Wakao correlation outperformed the others. Based on our findings, we recommend the use of the Wakao correlation for the Nusselt number calculation, and for pressure drop, the KTA (Kerntechnischer Ausschuss) correclation, among the available experimental correlations. In conclusion, the Reger direct numerical simulation-driven correlation for pressure drops should also be considered, given its best agreement with our calculations.

Mixed Convection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of E3SM Simulated Aerosols and Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions Across GCM and Convection‐Permitting Scales

This paper introduces an Earth system modeling testbed for predicting aerosols and aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACIs) at convection‐permitting scales. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 with a four‐mode Modal Aerosol Module, we conduct simulations at 3.25 km resolution on a regionally refined mesh (RRM) across four regions with distinct aerosol and cloud regimes. Results are compared with the standard 100 km E3SM configuration and evaluated against satellite, aircraft, and ground‐based observations. We find that increasing model resolution improves heavy precipitation simulation but amplifies positive bias in light drizzle at coarse resolution. These resolution‐induced changes affect cloud and aerosol properties to varying degrees across regions. Generally, cloud cover and liquid water path (LWP) show better agreement with satellite retrievals at 3.25 km, though surface‐based comparisons suggest otherwise. Aerosol composition remains poorly represented at both resolutions. The RRM increases Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations via enhanced new particle formation. However, accumulation mode aerosols are decreased at higher resolution as aerosol removals become more efficient. This partially contributes to fewer cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and lower cloud droplet number concentrations (N d ), which produces larger model biases in some scenarios. These findings suggest that solely increasing horizontal resolution to kilometer scales is insufficient to broadly improve aerosol and cloud predictions without concurrent advancements in physical and chemical process representations. Nonetheless, the RRM moderately improves key ACI relationships such as CCN‐N d correlation, reflecting enhanced aerosol activation representation. The LWP‐N d relationship is also better captured by RRM, suggesting a better characterization of LWP adjustment.

Huang, Meng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2026

GPM IMERG V07B and V06B: Evaluation Using Ground-Based Radar Observations and Application in Global Mesoscale Convective System Tracking

This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.

Zhang, Sihan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of GOES16 Data with the TRACER-ESCAPE Field Campaign Dataset for Convection Characterization: A Selection of Case Studies and Lessons Learnt

Convective updrafts are one of the main characteristics of convective clouds, responsible for the convective mass flux and the redistribution of energy and condensate in the atmosphere. During the early stages of their lifecycle, convective clouds experience rapid cloud-top ascent manifested by a decrease in the geostationary IR brightness temperature (𝑇⁢𝐵 𝐼⁢𝑅 ). Under the assumption that the convective cloud top behaves like a black body, the ascent rate of the convective cloud top can be estimated as ($\frac{∂𝑇⁢𝐵_{𝐼⁢𝑅}}{∂𝑡}$), and it can be used to infer the near cloud-top convective updraft. The temporal resolution of the geostationary IR measurements and non-uniform beam-filling effects can influence the convective updraft estimation. However, the main shortcoming until today was the lack of independent verification of the strength of the convective updraft. Here, Doppler radar observations from the ESCAPE and TRACER field experiments provide independent estimates of the convective updraft velocity at higher spatiotemporal resolution throughout the convective core column and can be used to evaluate the updraft velocity estimates from the IR cooling rate for limited samples. Isolated convective cells were tracked with dedicated radar (RHIs and PPIs) scans throughout their lifecycle. Radial Doppler velocity measurements near the convective cloud top are used to provide estimates of convective updrafts. These data are compared with the geostationary IR and VIS channels (from the GOES satellite) to characterize the convection evolution and lifecycle based on cloud-top cooling rates.

TRACER/ESCAPE field campaign↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The shape of convection in 2D and 3D global simulations of stellar interiors

Context. Theoretical descriptions of convective overshooting in stellar interiors often rely on a basic one-dimensional parameterization of the flow called the filling factor for convection. Several different definitions of the filling factor have been developed for this purpose, based on: (1) the percentage of the volume, (2) the mass flux, and (3) the convective flux that moves through the boundary. Aims. We examine these definitions of the filling factor with the goal of establishing their ability to explain differences between 2D and 3D global simulations of stellar interiors that include fully compressible hydrodynamics and realistic microphysics for stars. Methods. We study convection and overshooting in pairs of identical two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) global simulations of stars produced with MUSIC , a fully compressible, time-implicit hydrodynamics code. We examine pairs of simulations for (1) a 3 M ⊙ red giant star near the first dredge-up point, (2) a 1 M ⊙ pre-main-sequence star with a large convection zone, (3) the current sun, and (4) a 20 M ⊙ main-sequence star with a large convective core. Results. Our calculations of the filling factor based on the volume percentage and the mass flux indicate asymmetrical convection near the surface for each star with an outer convection zone. However, near the convective boundary, convective flows achieve inward-outward symmetry for each star that we study; for 2D and 3D simulations, these filling factors are indistinguishable. A filling factor based on the convective flux is contaminated by boundary-layer-like flows, making a theoretical interpretation difficult. We present two possible new alternatives to these frequently used definitions of a filling factor, which instead compare flows at two different radial points. The first alternative is the penetration parameter of Anders et al. (2022, ApJ, 926, 169). The second alternative is a new statistic that we call the plume interaction parameter. We demonstrate that both of these parameters captures systematic differences between 2D and 3D simulations around the convective boundary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dependencies of Simulated Convective Cell and System Growth Biases on Atmospheric Instability and Model Resolution

Abstract This study evaluates convective cell properties and their relationships with convective and stratiform rainfall within a season‐long convection‐permitting weather research and forecasting simulation over central Argentina using radar, satellite, and radiosonde measurements from the RELAMPAGO‐CACTI field campaign. The simulation slightly underestimates radar‐estimated rainfall over the ∼3.5‐month evaluation period but underestimates stratiform rainfall by 46% and overestimates convective rainfall by 43%. As convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases, the convective rainfall overestimation decreases, but the stratiform rainfall underestimation increases such that the contribution of convective to total rainfall remains constantly high biased by ∼26%. Overestimated convective rainfall arises from the simulation generating 2.6 times more precipitating convective cells (14,299) than observed by radar (5,662) despite similar observed and simulated cell growth processes, with relatively wide cells contributing mostly to excessive convective rainfall. Relatively shallow cells, typically reaching heights of 4–7 km, contribute most to the cell number bias. This cell number bias increases as CAPE decreases, potentially because cells and their updrafts become narrower and more under‐resolved as CAPE decreases. The gross overproduction of precipitating shallow cells leads to overly efficient precipitation and inadequate detrainment of ice aloft, thereby diminishing the formation of robust stratiform rainfall regions. Decreasing model horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 1 or 0.333 km for low (<300 J kg −1 ) and high CAPE (>1,000 J kg −1 ) cases results in minimal change to cell number, depth, and convective‐to‐stratiform partitioning biases. This suggests that improving prediction of these convective properties depends on factors beyond solely increasing model resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Effect of Updraft Entrainment on Convective Cell Deepening in Realistic Large-Eddy Simulations

Entrainment of surrounding cooler and drier air into convective updrafts is one of the key processes that influence deep convection initiation and growth. Numerous studies have investigated the effect of entrainment on isolated convective cloud growth in idealized simulations, but the importance of this effect in realistic conditions with many interacting convective clouds remains uncertain. We examine the impact of entrainment on the depth reached by convective clouds in realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) over central Argentina during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Cloudy updrafts and their associated properties are assigned to convective cells tracked with radar reflectivity signatures. Several thousand convective cells are tracked over two high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two low CAPE cases that support cells of varying depths and intensities. Entrainment is calculated explicitly as the fluxes of air into the outer surface of each cloudy updraft. Single-predictor logistic regression models are used to determine the relative importance of updraft, near-updraft, and preconvective initiation atmospheric conditions in predicting whether convective cells become deep. We then build a multiple-predictor regression model pairing important updraft and meteorological metrics with fractional entrainment rate. The probability of cells transitioning to deep convection is most sensitive to ambient 600-hPa relative humidity (42% of total metric contribution to cloud depth predictability), followed by low-level CAPE (28%), cloud-base updraft width (19%), and fractional entrainment (11%). Thus, the initial width of the updraft along with potential buoyancy and its dilution through the midtroposphere collectively determine whether deep convection will result from shallower clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examining Aerosol Vertical Transport and Removal during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable. We target this critical gap in understanding the vertical transport and removal of aerosols by deep convections. We proposed to analyze a multi-year, multi-site measurement record available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM program, including the observations from the 2014/15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, the 2017/18 Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign, the 2018/19 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, the 2021/22 Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign, and the long-term measurements collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, where deep convective clouds were frequently observed. This project is aimed at the following three objectives: (1) Gaining a detailed and quantitative understanding of the aerosols transported by a convective downdraft and their evolution in the atmosphere; (2) Examining the wet scavenging mechanisms and efficiencies of aerosols at altitudes of deep convective systems based on ground and aircraft measurements; (3) Evaluating the contribution of deep convective systems to CCN as both a source and a sink of atmospheric aerosols and its seasonal variabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

3D Convective Urca Process in a Simmering White Dwarf

Abstract A proposed setting for thermonuclear (Type Ia) supernovae is a white dwarf that has gained mass from a companion to the point of carbon ignition in the core. In the early stages of carbon burning, called the simmering phase, energy released by the reactions in the core drive the formation and growth of a core convection zone. One aspect of this phase is the convective Urca process, a linking of weak nuclear reactions to convection, which may alter the composition and structure of the white dwarf. The convective Urca process is not well understood and requires 3D fluid simulations to properly model the turbulent convection, an inherently 3D process. Because the neutron excess of the fluid both sets and is set by the extent of the convection zone, the realistic steady state can only be determined in simulations with real 3D mixing processes. Additionally, the convection is relatively slow (Mach number less than 0.005) and thus a low Mach number method is needed to model the flow over many convective turnovers. Using the MAESTROeX low Mach number hydrodynamic software, we present the first full-star 3D simulations of the A = 23 convective Urca process, spanning hundreds of convective turnover times. Our findings on the extent of mixing across the Urca shell, the characteristic velocities of the flow, the energy-loss rates due to neutrino emission, and the structure of the convective boundary can be used to inform 1D stellar models that track the longer-timescale evolution.

Boyd, Brendan (ORCID:0000000254199751)↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the Importance of the Convective Urca Process in 3D Simulations of a Simmering White Dwarf

Type Ia supernovae are bright thermonuclear explosions that are important to numerous areas of astronomy. However, the origins of these events are poorly understood. One proposed setting is that of a near Chandrasekhar mass white dwarf that undergoes runaway carbon burning in the core. During the thousand years leading up to the explosion, the white dwarf undergoes a simmering phase where slow carbon burning heats the core and drives convection. A poorly understood aspect of this phase is the convective Urca process, which links convection with weak nuclear reactions. We use the low Mach number code MAESTROeX to perform full 3D simulations as is required to accurately capture the turbulent convection. We present simulations with and without the A=23 convective Urca process, which have relaxed to a steady state. We characterize the effects of the convective Urca process on the neutrino losses, the nuclear energy generation, and the convective boundary. We find that the size of the convection zone is substantially reduced by the convective Urca process, though convection still extends past the Urca shell. Our findings on the structure of the convective zone and the compositional changes can be used to inform 1D stellar models that track the longer-timescale evolution.

FOS: Physical sciences↗