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Particle migration in suspensions by thermocapillary or electrophoretic motion

Two problems of similar mathematical structure are presented: the thermocapillary motion of bubbles and the electrophoresis of colloidal particles. For both problems, it is shown that in a cloud of n particles surrounded by an infinite expanse of fluid, the velocity of each sphere under creeping flow conditions is equal to the velocity of an isolated particle, unchanged by interactions between the particles. However, when the cloud fills a container, conservation of mass shows that this result cannot continue to hold, and the average translational velocity must be calculated subject to a constraint on the mass flux. It is concluded that the average thermocapillary or electrophoretic translational velocity of a particle in the cloud is related to the effective conductivity of the cloud over the whole range of particle volume fractions, provided that the particles are identical, non-conducting and, for the thermocapillary problem, inviscid.

Acrivos, A.↗

On the relation between X-ray burst properties and the persistent X-ray luminosity

Published data on X-ray bursts is analyzed, assuming that the peak luminosity of X-ray bursts with radius expansion is a standard candle and that the ratio of the anisotropy factors, xi(b) and xi(p) (Sztajno et al., 1987) is the same for all burst sources. It is shown that the effective burst duration, defined as the ratio of burst fluence to maximum burst flux, is strongly anticorrelated with the persistent luminosity. A positive correlation with the persistent luminosity of the ratio of the average persistent flux to the time-averaged burst flux is found. It is concluded that, independent of the accretion rate, after a given waiting time burst sources produce bursts with approximately the same (average) energy. This suggests that continuous stable burning of a sizeable fraction of the nuclear fuel is a general phenomenon on the surface of accreting neutron stars. It is suggested that this fraction is a gradually increasing function of the accretion rate.

Van Paradijs, J.↗

Pigs in cyberspace

Exploration and colonization of the universe awaits, but Earth-adapted biological humans are ill-equipped to respond to the challenge. Machines have gone farther and seen more, limited though they presently are by insect-like behavior inflexibility. As they become smarter over the coming decades, space will be theirs. Organizations of robots of ever increasing intelligence and sensory and motor ability will expand and transform what they occupy, working with matter, space and time. As they grow, a smaller and smaller fraction of their territory will be undeveloped frontier. Competitive success will depend more and more on using already available matter and space in ever more refined and useful forms. The process, analogous to the miniaturization that makes today's computers a trillion times more powerful than the mechanical calculators of the past, will gradually transform all activity from grossly physical homesteading of raw nature, to minimum-energy quantum transactions of computation. The final frontier will be urbanized, ultimately into an arena where every bit of activity is a meaningful computation: the inhabited portion of the universe will be transformed into a cyberspace. Because it will use resources more efficiently, a mature cyberspace of the distant future will be effectively much bigger than the present physical universe. While only an infinitesimal fraction of existing matter and space is doing interesting work, in a well developed cyberspace every bit will be part of a relevant computation or storing a useful datum. Over time, more compact and faster ways of using space and matter will be invented, and used to restructure the cyberspace, effectively increasing the amount of computational spacetime per unit of physical spacetime. Computational speed-ups will affect the subjective experience of entities in the cyberspace in a paradoxical way. At first glimpse, there is no subjective effect, because everything, inside and outside the individual, speeds up equally. But, more subtly, speed-up produces an expansion of the cyber universe, because, as thought accelerates, more subjective time passes during the fixed (probably lightspeed) physical transit time of a message between a given pair of locations - so those fixed locations seem to grow farther apart. Also, as information storage is made continually more efficient through both denser utilization of matter and more efficient encodings, there will be increasingly more cyber-stuff between any two points. The effect may somewhat resemble the continuous-creation process in the old steady-state theory of the physical universe of Hoyle, Bondi and Gold, where hydrogen atoms appear just fast enough throughout the expanding cosmos to maintain a constant density.

Moravec, Hans↗

The Ceres S'COOL Project: Two Years After First Launch

The idea for the Students' Cloud Observations OnLine (S'COOL) project as an outreach and education element of NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) research program was conceived in late 1996 during a conversation with a middle school science teacher. S'COOL was implemented in a series of increasingly developed test phases during 1997, as the launch of the first CERES instrument approached. Even before launch, the reception of the project in schools far exceeded expectations. After several delays the first instrument, on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft, was launched on Thanksgiving Day, 1997. Since the first launch, development and expansion of the project has continued with expectations for launch of Terra carrying two CERES instruments into a polar orbit in mid-1998. That launch is now expected in fall 1999, and will finally provide overflight of all participating schools. In two years, the project has grown from three initial test participants to over 300 schools now participating in 23 countries on five continents. Students from first grade through university level are involved (most participants are ages 10-15). S'COOL is also being used by a few education professors to teach about Internet use in the classroom. The project continues to grow through word of mouth, presentations at teacher workshops, and now increasingly through teachers who find it during web searches. Participants in the S'COOL project are part of the CERES validation team. They provide ground truth measurements at the time the CERES instrument flies over their location, to be compared with the retrieval of cloud properties by remote sensing from CERES. Quantities reported include cloud type, height, fraction and opacity; information on contrails; surface temperature, pressure and relative humidity; and ground cover (snow/ice, wet, dry; leaves on trees or not). in addition, a comment field on the report form serves as a catch-all for all kinds of interesting observations, including similes written by some classes to describe more exactly the clouds they see. Several not totally unexpected complications with the CERES instrument and processing software mean that the CERES team has not yet reached the point of computing the cloud properties, a high level product at the end of the processing stream. However, progress is being made and we anticipate that we will soon be populating the S'COOL database with a large number of satellite retrievals for comparison with the students' observations. Some satellite retrievals from the initial test phases are already available in the database, The CERES instruments are planned to operate at least through 2006, and the S'COOL Project is planned to continue at least that long, providing motivational learning to as many students as possible. This paper reports on the first several years of the S'CCOL project. It further reports on some of the noteworthy observations and comparisons made possible by this project. Schools are often located in interesting places, in terms of the clouds found there and the satellite's ability to observe these clouds. The paper also reports on the learning opportunities delivered by this project, and on new questions about the planet and its climate which arise in the students' minds as a result of their active participation.

Chambers, Lin H.↗

Solid Freeform Fabrication of Continuous Fiber Reinforced Composites for Propulsion Applications

For propulsion related applications, materials must be able to demonstrate excellent ablation and oxidation resistance at temperature approaching 3500'C, adequate load bearing capabilities, non-catastrophic failure modes, and ability to withstand transient thermal shock. A potential list of propulsion-material property requirements includes, low density, high elastic modulus, low thermal-expansion coefficient, high thermal conductivity, excellent erosion and oxidation/corrosion resistance, and flaw-insensitivity. In many cases, they will also need to be able to be joined, survive thermal cycling and multi-axial stress states, and for reusable applications, the materials must maintain the above attributes after prolonged exposure to extremely harsh chemical environments. The final and possibly most important attribute for these materials are the need to be lower cost and readily available in large quantities. Recently, Advanced Ceramics Research, Inc. (ACR) has developed low cost, flexible- manufacturing processes for Zr & Hf-based carbon fiber reinforced composites, materials with good oxidation and ablation resistance up to 3500 C. This process, called Continuous Composite Co-extrusion (C(sup 3)), incorporates carbon fibers to fabricate 'in-situ' carbide and boride-matrix/carbon fiber composites. This is a variation of ACR's manufacturing process for low-cost structural ceramic materials called Fibrous Monoliths With carbon fiber reinforcements. Fibrous Monolithic materials have a distinct fibrous texture, consist of intertwined cells of a primary phase, separated by cell boundaries of a tailored secondary phase and show very high fracture energies, damage tolerance, and graceful failure. Since they are monolithic powder based composites-, they can be manufactured by conventional powder processing techniques using inexpensive raw materials. This combination of high performance and low cost is a breakthrough that could enable wider application of ceramics in high temperature applications. Typical volume fractions of the two phases are 80 to 95% for the cell phase and 5 to 20% for the interpenetrating cell boundary phase. ACR is currently developing an innovative solid freeform form fabrication (SFF) approach to produce Hf and Zr based ceramic composite components reinforced with continuous carbon fiber tows for critical structural components such as tubes and blisks. The process is simple, robust and will be widely applicable to a number of material systems. This technique was originally developed at the University of Delaware Center for Composite Materials (UD-CCM) for rapid fabrication of polymer matrix composites by a technique called automated tow placement or ATP. The current process is being developed in collaboration with UD-CCM. The paper will detail the freeform fabrication process to create low-cost ceramic fiber reinforced composites for high-temperature applications. The results of mechanical properties and microstructural characterization will be presented, together with examples of complex shapes and parts. It is believed that the process will be able to create complex shaped parts for propulsion applications at an order of magnitude lower cost than current CVI and PIP process.

Vaidyanathan, R.↗

Solid Free-Form Fabrication of Continuous Fiber Reinforced Composites for Propulsion Application

For propulsion related applications, materials must be able to demonstrate excellent ablation and oxidation resistance at temperature approaching 3500 C, adequate load bearing capabilities, non-catastrophic failure modes, and ability to withstand transient thermal shock. A potential list of propulsion-material property requirements includes, low density, high elastic modulus, low thermal-expansion coefficient, high thermal conductivity, excellent erosion and oxidation/corrosion resistance, and flaw-insensitivity. In many cases, they will also need to be able to be joined, survive thermal cycling and multi-axial stress states, and for reusable applications, the materials must maintain the above attributes after prolonged exposure to extremely harsh chemical environments. The final and possibly most important attribute for these materials are the need to be lower cost and readily available in large quantities. Recently, Advanced Ceramics Research, Inc. (ACR) has developed low cost, flexible-manufacturing processes for Zr & Hf-based carbon fiber reinforced composites, materials with good oxidation and ablation resistance up to 3500 C. This process, called Continuous Composite Co-extrusion (C(sup 3)), incorporates carbon fibers to fabricate 'in-situ' carbide and boride-matrix/carbon fiber composites. M is a variation of ACR's manufacturing process for low-cost structural ceramic materials called Fibrous Monoliths with carbon fiber reinforcements. Fibrous Monolithic materials have a distinct fibrous texture, consist of intertwined cells of a primary phase, separated by cell boundaries of a tailored secondary phase and show very high fracture energies, damage tolerance, and graceful failure. Since they are monolithic powder based composites; they can be manufactured by conventional powder processing techniques using inexpensive raw materials. This combination of high performance and low cost is a breakthrough that could enable wider application of ceramics in high temperature applications. Typical volume fractions of the two phases are 80 to 95% for the cell phase and 5 to 20% for the interpenetrating cell boundary phase. ACR is currently developing an innovative solid freeform form fabrication (SFF) approach to produce Hf and Zr based ceramic composite components reinforced with continuous carbon fiber tows for critical structural components such as tubes and blisks. The process is simple, robust and will be widely applicable to a number of material systems. This technique was originally developed at the University of Delaware Center for Composite Materials (UD-CCM) for rapid fabrication of polymer matrix composites by a technique called automated tow placement or ATP. The current process is being developed in collaboration with UD-CCM. The paper will detail the freeform fabrication process to create low-cost ceramic fiber reinforced composites for high-temperature applications. The results of mechanical properties and microstructural characterization will be presented, together with examples of complex shapes and parts. It is believed that the process will be able to create complex shaped parts for propulsion applications at an order of magnitude lower cost than current CVI and PIP processes.

Vaidyanathan, R.↗

Potential for Monitoring Snow Cover in Boreal Forests by Combining MODIS Snow Cover and AMSR-E SWE Maps

Monitoring of snow cover extent and snow water equivalent (SWE) in boreal forests is important for determining the amount of potential runoff and beginning date of snowmelt. The great expanse of the boreal forest necessitates the use of satellite measurements to monitor snow cover. Snow cover in the boreal forest can be mapped with either the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) or the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) microwave instrument. The extent of snow cover is estimated from the MODIS data and SWE is estimated from the AMSR-E. Environmental limitations affect both sensors in different ways to limit their ability to detect snow in some situations. Forest density, snow wetness, and snow depth are factors that limit the effectiveness of both sensors for snow detection. Cloud cover is a significant hindrance to monitoring snow cover extent Using MODIS but is not a hindrance to the use of the AMSR-E. These limitations could be mitigated by combining MODIS and AMSR-E data to allow for improved interpretation of snow cover extent and SWE on a daily basis and provide temporal continuity of snow mapping across the boreal forest regions in Canada. The purpose of this study is to investigate if temporal monitoring of snow cover using a combination of MODIS and AMSR-E data could yield a better interpretation of changing snow cover conditions. The MODIS snow mapping algorithm is based on snow detection using the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to enhance snow detection in dense vegetation. (Other spectral threshold tests are also used to map snow using MODIS.) Snow cover under a forest canopy may have an effect on the NDVI thus we use the NDVI in snow detection. A MODIS snow fraction product is also generated but not used in this study. In this study the NDSI and NDVI components of the snow mapping algorithm were calculated and analyzed to determine how they changed through the seasons. A blended snow product, the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA (ANSA) snow algorithm and product has recently been developed. The ANSA algorithm blends the MODIS snow cover and AMSR-E SWE products into a single snow product that has been shown to improve the performance of snow cover mapping. In this study components of the ANSA snow algorithm are used along with additional MODIS data to monitor daily changes in snow cover over the period of 1 February to 30 June 2008.

Riggs, George A.↗

Domed, 40-cm-Diameter Ion Optics for an Ion Thruster

Improved accelerator and screen grids for an ion accelerator have been designed and tested in a continuing effort to increase the sustainable power and thrust at the high end of the accelerator throttling range. The accelerator and screen grids are undergoing development for intended use as NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) a spacecraft thruster that would have an input-power throttling range of 1.2 to 6.9 kW. The improved accelerator and screen grids could also be incorporated into ion accelerators used in such industrial processes as ion implantation and ion milling. NEXT is a successor to the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) thruster - a state-of-the-art ion thruster characterized by, among other things, a beam-extraction diameter of 28 cm, a span-to-gap ratio (defined as this diameter divided by the distance between the grids) of about 430, and a rated peak input power of 2.3 kW. To enable the NEXT thruster to operate at the required higher peak power, the beam-extraction diameter was increased to 40 cm almost doubling the beam-extraction area over that of NSTAR (see figure). The span-to-gap ratio was increased to 600 to enable throttling to the low end of the required input-power range. The geometry of the apertures in the grids was selected on the basis of experience in the use of grids of similar geometry in the NSTAR thruster. Characteristics of the aperture geometry include a high open-area fraction in the screen grid to reduce discharge losses and a low open-area fraction in the accelerator grid to reduce losses of electrically neutral gas atoms or molecules. The NEXT accelerator grid was made thicker than that of the NSTAR to make more material available for erosion, thereby increasing the service life and, hence, the total impulse. The NEXT grids are made of molybdenum, which was chosen because its combination of high strength and low thermal expansion helps to minimize thermally and inertially induced deflections of the grids. A secondary reason for choosing molybdenum is the availability of a large database for this material. To keep development costs low, the NEXT grids have been fabricated by the same techniques used to fabricate the NSTAR grids. In tests, the NEXT ion optics have been found to outperform the NSTAR ion optics, as expected.

Soulas, George C.↗

Bubble Generation in a Flowing Liquid Medium and Resulting Two-Phase Flow in Microgravity

The present investigation reports a study of bubble generation under reduced gravity conditions, using both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. This study may be used in the conceptual design of a space-based thermal management system. Ensuing two-phase flow void fraction can be accurately monitored using a single nozzle gas injection system within a continuous liquid flow conduit, as utilized in the present investigation. Accurate monitoring of void fraction leads to precise control of heat and mass transfer coefficients related to a thermal management system; hence providing an efficient and highly effective means of removing heat aboard spacecraft or space stations. Our experiments are performed in parabolic flight aboard the modified DC-9 Reduced Gravity Research Aircraft at NASA Lewis Research Center, using an air-water system. For the purpose of bubble dispersion in a flowing liquid, we use both a co-flow and a cross-flow configuration. In the co-flow geometry, air is introduced through a nozzle in the same direction with the liquid flow. On the other hand, in the cross-flow configuration, air is injected perpendicular to the direction of water flow, via a nozzle protruding inside the two-phase flow conduit. Three different flow conduit (pipe) diameters are used, namely, 1.27 cm, 1.9 cm and 2.54 cm. Two different ratios of nozzle to pipe diameter (D(sub N))sup * are considered, namely (D(sub N))sup * = 0.1 and 0.2, while superficial liquid velocities are varied from 8 to 70 cm/s depending on flow conduit diameter. It is experimentally observed that by holding all other flow conditions and geometry constant, generated bubbles decrease in size with increase in superficial liquid velocity. Detached bubble diameter is shown to increase with air injection nozzle diameter. Likewise, generated bubbles grow in size with increasing pipe diameter. Along the same lines, it is shown that bubble frequency of formation increases and hence the time to detachment of a forming bubble decreases, as the superficial liquid velocity is in-creased. Furthermore, it is shown that the void fraction of the resulting two-phase flow increases with volumetric gas flow rate Q(sub d), pipe diameter and gas injection nozzle diameter, while they decrease with surrounding liquid flow. The important role played by flowing liquid in detaching bubbles in a reduced gravity environment is thus emphasized. We observe that the void fraction can be accurately controlled by using single nozzle gas injection, rather than by employing multiple port injection, since the later system gives rise to unpredictable coalescence of adjacent bubbles. It is of interest to note that empirical bubble size and corresponding void fraction are somewhat smaller for the co-flow geometry than the cross-flow configuration at similar flow conditions with similar pipe and nozzle diameters. In order to supplement the empirical data, a theoretical model is employed to study single bubble generation in the dynamic (Q(sub d) = 1 - 1000 cu cm/s) and bubbly flow regime within the framework of the co-flow configuration. This theoretical model is based on an overall force balance acting on the bubble during the two stages of generation, namely the expansion and the detachment stage. Two sets of forces, one aiding and the other inhibiting bubble detachment are identified. Under conditions of reduced gravity, gas momentum flux enhances, while the surface tension force at the air injection nozzle tip inhibits bubble detachment. In parallel, liquid drag and inertia can act as both attaching and detaching forces, depending on the relative velocity of the bubble with respect to the surrounding liquid. Predictions of the theoretical model compare well with our experimental results. However, at higher superficial liquid velocities, as the bubble loses its spherical form, empirical bubble size no longer matches the theoretical predictions. In summary, we have developed a combined experimental and theoretical work, which describes the complex process of bubble generation and resulting two-phase flow in a microgravity environment. Results of the present study can be used in a wide range of space-based applications, such as thermal energy and power generation, propulsion, cryogenic storage and long duration life support systems, necessary for programs such as NASA's Human Exploration for the Development of Space (HEDS).

Pais, S. C.↗

Towards an Enhanced Droplet Activation Scheme for Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Initial droplet spectra produced upon activation impact the ensuing chain of microphysical processes andtherefore play a crucial role in cloud evolution. This work re-examines dependencies of newly formed clouddroplet size distribution (CDSD) characteristics on environmental and aerosol properties via parcel model simulationsthat serve as the basis for a multi-moment bulk microphysics droplet activation scheme suitable for acloud-resolving model (CRM). It is found that applying a fixed size threshold to define activated droplets versusemploying physical considerations can lead to erroneous activation and overly broad CDSDs for high aerosolconcentration and weak updraft conditions. Aerosol distributions characterized by larger median sizes and/orincreased solubility can result in greater activated droplet numbers, whereas impacts of these parameters onCDSD spectral width depend on both aerosol number concentration and updraft velocity. An expansion of theactivation scheme to include CDSD spectral width is proposed to aid efforts to extend high-order momentprediction to cloud droplet categories in CRMs as well as better represent variability in the activation process onthe cloud scale.simulations to investigate the regime dependence of the relative dispersion(d)1 of newly activated CDSDs, where d is the ratio of dropletradius standard deviation (σ) to the mean radius (r ). C16 demonstratedthat increasing Na resulted in increasing (decreasing) d values via reducedcondensational narrowing (spectral broadening) rates within theAL (UL) regime, with d values peaking in the TR regime. Their findingssuggest a similar regime dependence for d as R09 noted for Nc and helpexplain reportedly conflicting relationships between Na and CDSDspectral characteristics (cf. Hudson and Noble, 2014; Liu et al., 2014),although the applicability of these results within bulk microphysicalschemes was not addressed.Simulating aerosol-cloud interactions with CRMs employing bulkmicrophysics requires that the scheme minimally predict two CDSDparameters, namely mass and number concentrations, and represent thedroplet activation process. Various activation schemes aim to determineNc from aerosol and environmental properties and include analyticalexpressions (e.g., Abdul-Razzak et al., 1998; Morrison et al., 2005) aswell as lookup tables (LUTs) based on detailed parcel model calculations(e.g., Saleeby and Cotton, 2004, hereafter SC04; Segal and Khain,2006; Thompson and Eidhammer, 2014). Expressions to diagnose CDSDspectral width from Nc (Grabowski, 1998; Liu et al., 2006; Morrison andGrabowski, 2007) or cloud water content (Geoffroy et al., 2010) havealso been developed, although more robust methods to obtain CDSDspectral width upon activation are presently lacking. This latter point isrelevant for triple-moment (3 M) bulk microphysics that aim to predictdistribution spectral width alongside number and mass concentrations(e.g., Loftus et al., 2014; Milbrandt and Yau, 2005).The current work extends the findings of C16 to the current LUTbasedaerosol activation scheme used in the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003; SC04; Saleeby and vanden Heever, 2013, hereafter SvdH13) and additionally examinesaerosol size and solubility impacts on newly activated CDSD properties.Because early cloud development processes such as condensationalgrowth, evaporation, and droplet self-collection depend on and impactCDSD spectral width (Hudson and Yum, 1997; Seifert and Beheng 2001;Lu and Seinfeld, 2006; Igel and van den Heever, 2017), an expansion ofthe activation LUTs to include CDSD spectral width is proposed as apreliminary step for extending 3M prediction to CDSDs in CRMs forimproved simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions.2. MethodologyThe current RAMS two-moment microphysics module determinesthe fractional number of aerosol particles that activate to cloud dropletsfrom five-dimensional LUTs based on model predicted air temperature(T), w, Na, and the geometric median radius (rg) and soluble fraction (ε)of the aerosol size distribution (SvdH13). These LUTs are created offlineusing a one-dimensional Lagrangian adiabatic parcel model (Feingoldand Heymsfield, 1992; Heymsfield and Sabin, 1989; SC04) to simulateexplicit droplet activation and initial CDSD growth for a range of ambientatmospheric conditions [T, w] and binned lognormal aerosol sizedistributions given by= ⎡⎣ ⎢− ⎤⎦ ⎥N r Nr π σr rσ( )2 lnexp[ln( / )]2(ln )aggg22 (1)where r is the dry aerosol particle bin radius and σg is the geometricstandard deviation of the distribution. As the parcel model simulationsfocus on the activation process, other processes such as coalescence,sedimentation, and mixing are not considered. Details of the parcelmodel can be found in SC04 and SvdH13, and only a brief description isprovided here. At the onset of parcel model calculations, the initiallydry aerosol particles in all bins first deliquesce and reach theirequilibrium diameters in a sub-saturated environment based on theKöhler equation for solution droplets. The parcel is then lifted at a fixedupward velocity w, and particle growth by vapor diffusion, along withconcurrent changes in the ambient environment, are iteratively computedusing the Variable-coefficient Ordinary Differential Equation(VODE) solver (Brown et al., 1989). The time resolution of these calculationsis determined within the VODE solver, and the frequency atwhich the solver is called is controlled by a longer model time stepbased on fixed upward parcel displacement increments (Δz) at thespecified w (Δt=Δz/w). Model calculations proceed until the parcelreaches a height 50m beyond the level of maximum saturation ratio(Smax) or total parcel displacement exceeds 2 km. Upon model termination,Smax and the fractional number of aerosols (factv) resulting innewly formed cloud droplets, defined as particles having diameters of atleast 2 μm, are cataloged in the LUTs according to the specified T, w, Na,rg, and ε parameter values.A critical point regarding the creation of these LUTs is the use of afixed minimum diameter (Dmin) to define cloud droplets in the parcelmodel, which can produce erroneous CDSD characteristics, particularlywithin the UL regime. For aerosol distributions with large rg valuesunder low SS conditions, for example, deliquesced aerosols within thelarge tail of the distribution can exceed 2 μm in diameter yet remainunactivated as ‘haze’ particles (Levin and Cotton, 2009; McFigganset al., 2006). For this study, aerosol particles activate to cloud dropletsbased on the critical diameter Dcrit as a function of parcel supersaturationratio (Sr) as in R09:D = σ MS RTρ83 ln( ) critsol wr w (2)where σsol is the surface tension of a solution droplet, Mw and ρw are themolar mass and density of liquid water, respectively, and R is theuniversal gas constant. Additionally, at relatively large w values withinthe AL regime, Nc stabilizes shortly after reaching supersaturation.However, parcel ascent and condensational growth continue beyondthe level of Smax, potentially causing additional narrowing of the CDSD.In the current work, model calculations terminate upon reaching Smaxas changes in Nc are negligible with continued ascent (Peng et al., 2007;R09).Parcel model simulations are performed to examine the sensitivitiesof CDSD characteristics to w, Na, rg, and ε, with the ranges for theseparameters listed in Table 1. Aerosols are assumed to be a mix of solubleand insoluble material of equal density, specified by ε, where fullysoluble aerosols correspond to ammonium sulfate with hygroscopicityparameter κ=0.61 (Petters and Kreidenweis, 2007). FollowingSvdH13, aerosol geometric standard deviation is fixed at σg=1.8, andaerosol distributions (Eq. 1) are partitioned into 100 logarithmicallyspacedbins spanning a size range specific to each rg value. For all simulations,Δz=1 m, and initial values of relative humidity, air temperatureand pressure are set to RH=0.99, T=10 °C and p=900 hPa,respectively.

Loftus, Adrian M.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗