DOE OSTI2026
Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.