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At least 37 records · Page 2

Trait relationships of fungal decomposers in response to drought using a dual field and laboratory approach

Abstract Decomposer fungi play a fundamental role in terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In the southwestern United States, climate change is causing more frequent and severe droughts, which may alter fungal community composition and activity. Investigating relationships between fungal traits may improve the prediction of fungal responses to drought. In this dual field and laboratory experiment, we examine whether trade‐offs occur between traits associated with drought. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that fungi sort into lifestyles specializing in growth y ield, resource a cquisition, and drought s tress tolerance (“YAS” framework). For the field experiment, we constructed microbial “cages” containing sterilized litter and 1 of 10 fungal isolates. These cages were placed in long‐term drought and control plots in a southern Californian grassland for 6 and 12 months. We measured fungal hyphal length per unit litter mass loss for growth yield, the potential activities of four extracellular enzymes for resource acquisition, and the ability to grow in the drought versus control plots for drought stress tolerance. We compared these results with a laboratory microcosm experiment constructed with the same fungal isolates and that measured the same fungal traits. The field experiment corroborated our laboratory results, in that no trade‐offs were observed between growth yield and resource acquisition traits. However, in contrast to the laboratory experiment, drought tolerance was negatively related to extracellular enzyme activity and growth yield in the field, implying a trade‐off. Despite this observed trade‐off in the field, growth yield was not hindered by drought. We propose a modification to the YAS framework, by combining the growth yield and resource acquisition lifestyles, which may be more appropriate for this arid system. This joint laboratory and field approach contextualizes a theoretical framework in microbial ecology and improves understanding of fungal community response to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗

Time-Energy Uncertainty Relation for Noisy Quantum Metrology

Detection of very weak forces and precise measurement of time are two of the many applications of quantum metrology to science and technology. To sense an unknown physical parameter, one prepares an initial state of a probe system, allows the probe to evolve as governed by a Hamiltonian 𝐻 for some time 𝑡, and then measures the probe. If 𝐻 is known, we can estimate 𝑡 by this method; if 𝑡 is known, we can estimate classical parameters on which 𝐻 depends. The accuracy of a quantum sensor can be limited by either intrinsic quantum noise or by noise arising from the interactions of the probe with its environment. In this work, we introduce and study a fundamental trade-off, which relates the amount by which noise reduces the accuracy of a quantum clock to the amount of information about the energy of the clock that leaks to the environment. Specifically, we consider an idealized scenario in which a party Alice prepares an initial pure state of the clock, allows the clock to evolve for a time that is not precisely known, and then transmits the clock through a noisy channel to a party Bob. Meanwhile, the environment (Eve) receives any information about the clock that is lost during transmission. We prove that Bob’s loss of quantum Fisher information about the elapsed time is equal to Eve’s gain of quantum Fisher information about a complementary energy parameter. We also prove a similar, but more general, trade-off that applies when Bob and Eve wish to estimate the values of parameters associated with two noncommuting observables. We derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the accuracy of the clock to be unaffected by the noise, which form a subset of the Knill-Laflamme error-correction conditions. A state and its local time-evolution direction, if they satisfy these conditions, are said to form a metrological code. We provide a scheme to construct metrological codes in the stabilizer formalism. We show that there are metrological codes that cannot be written as a quantum error-correcting code with similar distance in which the Hamiltonian acts as a logical operator, potentially offering new schemes for constructing states that do not lose any sensitivity upon application of a noisy channel. We discuss applications of the trade-off relation to sensing using a quantum many-body probe subject to erasure or amplitude-damping noise.

metrology↗

Reinforced double-threaded slide-ring networks for accelerated hydrogel discovery and 3D printing

Traditionally, slide-ring gels are stretchable but soft as a result of an elasticity-stretchability trade-off. Herein, we introduce a new approach to breaking this trade-off and creating reinforced slide-ring networks with mobile crosslinkers. Our approach involves the construction of a polyethylene glycol double-threaded γ-cyclodextrin-based pro-slide-ring crosslinker that serves as a modular component for 3D printing and copolymerization. The resulting crystalline-domain-reinforced slide-ring hydrogels, or CrysDoS-gels, exhibit both high elasticity and high stretchability. The modular synthesis allows for high-throughput synthesis of CrysDoS-gels, generating a large amount of data for structure-property analysis. Here, by employing data science techniques, such as machine learning and linear regression, not only were we able to identify which chemical components influence the mechanical properties of CrysDoS-gels, but this analysis also aided in the discovery of better-performing CrysDoS-gels. Finally, we demonstrate the potential application of the newly discovered CrysDoS-gels as sensing devices by 3D printing them as stress sensors with high sensitivity and a broad detection range.

3D-printing↗

Computational investigation of the impact of metal–organic framework topology on hydrogen storage capacity

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) are promising, tunable materials for hydrogen storage. For application under cryogenic operating conditions, past work has run into a ceiling on performance due to a trade-off in the volumetric deliverable capacity (VDC) versus the gravimetric deliverable capacity (GDC). In this study, we computationally constructed and screened 105 230 MOF structures based on 529 nets to explore the effect of underlying topology on the hydrogen storage performance of the resulting materials. A machine learning model was developed based on simulated hydrogen uptake to facilitate screening of the entire dataset, and it successfully identified the top 10% of materials with a root-mean-square error of approximately 1 g L −1 as validated by subsequent grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. We identified a promising structure based on the tsx topology that exhibits both VDC and GDC higher than the current benchmark material, MOF-5. Our data-driven analysis indicates that nets with higher net density yield MOFs with enhanced volumetric and gravimetric surface areas, thereby improving maximum VDC while shifting the capacity trade-off toward higher GDC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Particle-hole asymmetric phases in doped twisted bilayer graphene

Twisted bilayer graphene (TBG) has emerged as a paradigmatic platform for exploring the interplay between strong interactions in a multi-band system with nearly flat bands, while offering unprecedented control over the filling fraction of electron/hole carriers. Despite much theoretical work, developing a comprehensive ab initio model for this system has proven challenging due to the inherent trade-off between accurately describing the band structure and incorporating the interactions within the Hamiltonian. Here, we constructed an extended multi-orbital Hubbard model, and performed Hartree-Fock (HF) calculations to explore its phase diagram across commensurate fillings. We found several nearly-degenerate insulating states at charge neutrality, all of which exhibit orbital orders. We also observed that most of the Hartree–Fock ground states exhibit a generalized valley Hund’s-like rule, resulting in valley polarization. Importantly, we show that the incorporation of the intra-valley and inter-valley exchange interactions is crucial to properly stabilize the ordered symmetry-broken states. In agreement with experiments, we find significant particle-hole asymmetry, which underscores the importance of using particle-hole asymmetric models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Robotics for Systems Integration in Buildings - Pilot Study of Viable Approaches to Install Hygrothermal and Rigid Electrical Systems: Preprint

The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been exploring the use of robotics to integrate hygrothermal, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems in prefabricated building assemblies (offsite construction) and 3D Printed buildings (onsite construction). Such multi-system integration tasks often require specialized robots and custom end-effectors for handling a range of rigid and non-rigid building components. This paper begins with a brief overview of the current state of robotics in construction, followed by a pilot study exploring the use of robotics to integrate a simple prototype multi-trade wall assembly composed of structural studs, hygrothermal layer, wall finishing, and electrical fixtures. The study was funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Office (AMMTO). Insights about the implementation of design for manufacturing and assembly (DfMA) principles in designing the prototype wall for robotic assembly, and selection of appropriate robotic end effector hardware for handling these components are included. Detailed comparison of computational toolpath simulations of the robotic assembly process and real-life demonstration of the same is presented. Finally, limitations and lessons learned from this study along with future research recommendations for robotic assembly of more complex multi-trade assemblies, including potential scenarios such as robotic outfitting of facilities in extra-terrestrial environments is included.

advanced manufacturing↗

An Energy Codes Gap Analysis Field Study in the Southwest (Final Technical Report)

The primary goal of the “An Energy Codes Gap Analysis Field Study in the Southwest” project was to improve housing through strengthened building energy code implementation in two states, Colorado and Nevada, leading to greater energy and utility bill savings for households. Colorado is a home rule state. Nevada adopts a statewide code, but cities and counties must also adopt the code, making the state function like a home rule state. To broaden the impact of the project, an additional goal was to share and amplify project experiences, findings, and lessons that can be applied in other states. To achieve these goals, the project’s key objectives were to examine how residential energy codes are implemented in partner states; to use these findings to strengthen codes implementation through enhanced education, training, and outreach; and to enhance energy code technical assistance capabilities in the two partner states. In both partner states, the project led to the creation of a quantitative baseline understanding of compliance with high-impact energy code requirements, such as foundation, wall, and ceiling R-value; window U-factor and SHGC; envelope air tightness; duct tightness; and high-efficiency lighting. It then applied this baseline information to directly inform training in geographic areas with high levels of building and construction activity. The project has placed Colorado and Nevada among 23 states across the country that have conducted a single-family residential field study based on the established U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) methodology since 2014. It has also helped each State Energy Office test models for partnership- and relationship-building among government agencies and key stakeholder groups, including the State Energy Office and relevant code administration and professional licensing agencies, building officials, designers, builders, trades and utilities. At the national level, the project helped educate and inform State and Territory Energy Offices on a replicable methodology to assess energy code construction practices, effective stakeholder engagement strategies, and tailored energy code education and training. These findings are particularly pertinent for home-rule states, such as Colorado and Nevada, which rely on local government awareness and action to advance and implement building energy codes. By raising awareness of code adoption and compliance, this project has helped to equip each partner state with data on code compliance, strategies, education, and partnership models to advance building energy codes. This in turn will have an important impact on new construction practices in Colorado and Nevada, leading to more energy efficient and affordable housing. Currently, more than 62 percent of Colorado’s population lives in one of the 55 jurisdictions that have adopted the 2021 IECC to date, while nearly 95 percent of the state's population lives in one of the 208 jurisdictions that have adopted a code at 2015 IECC levels or higher. In Nevada, the 2018 IECC was adopted by the Governor’s Office of Energy in July 2018. By July 2020, 47 percent of the adopted energy code in the state was 2018 IECC which covers 96.5 percent of Nevada’s population. The training materials funded by this project focus on the 2021 IECC and will continue to be relevant in the two states as additional jurisdictions update their building energy codes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗

The hyperplane of early-type galaxies: using stellar population properties to increase the precision and accuracy of the fundamental plane as a distance indicator

ABSTRACT We use deep spectroscopy from the SAMI (Sydney-AAO Multi-object Integral) Galaxy Survey to explore the precision of the fundamental plane (FP) of early-type galaxies as a distance indicator for future single-fibre spectroscopy surveys. We study the optimal trade-off between sample size and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and investigate which additional observables can be used to construct hyperplanes with smaller intrinsic scatter than the FP. We add increasing levels of random noise (parametrized as effective exposure time) to the SAMI spectra to study the effect of increasing measurement uncertainties on the FP- and hyperplane-inferred distances. We find that, using direct-fit methods, the values of the FP and hyperplane best-fitting coefficients depend on the spectral SNR, and reach asymptotic values for a mean $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =40\, \mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$. As additional variables for the FP we consider three stellar-population observables: light-weighted age, stellar mass-to-light ratio, and a novel combination of Lick indices ($I_\mathrm{age}$). For an $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =45~\mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$ (equivalent to 1-h exposure on a 4-m telescope), all three hyperplanes outperform the FP as distance indicators. Being an empirical spectral index, $I_\mathrm{age}$ avoids the model-dependent uncertainties and bias underlying age and mass-to-light ratio measurements, yet yields a 10 per cent reduction of the median distance uncertainty compared to the FP. We also find that, as a by-product, the $I_\mathrm{age}$ hyperplane removes most of the reported environment bias of the FP. After accounting for the different SNR, these conclusions also apply to a 50 times larger sample from SDSS-III (Sloan Digital Sky Survey). However, in this case, only $\mathrm{ age}$ removes the environment bias.

D’Eugenio, Francesco (ORCID:0000000323888172)↗

Resilience Design Patterns: A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (V.2.0)

Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest the prevalence of very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Therefore, the resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires coordination between various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. Also, due to practical limits on power consumption in future HPC systems, they are likely to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. Therefore, the techniques that seek to improve resilience must navigate the complex trade-off space between resilience and the overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various resilience solutions, application-level techniques as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods to integrate the various HPC resilience techniques into composite solutions, nor are there methods to holistically evaluate the adequacy and efficacy of such solutions in terms of their protection coverage, and their performance & power efficiency characteristics. Additionally, few implementations of current resilience solutions are portable to newer architectures and software environments that will be deployed on future systems. We developed a new structured approach to the management of HPC resilience using the concept of resilience-based design patterns. In general, a design pattern is a repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identified the well-known solutions that are commonly used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. In the initial design patterns specification (version 1.0), we described the various solutions, which address specific problems in the design of resilient HPC environments, in the form of patterns. Each pattern describes a problem caused by a fault, error or failure event in an HPC environment, and then describes the core of the solution of the problem in such a way that this solution may be adapted to different systems and implemented at different layers of the system stack. The catalog of these resilience design patterns provides designers with a collection of design elements. To construct complete resilience solutions using combinations of various patterns, we defined a framework that enhances HPC designers' understanding of the important constraints and the opportunities for the design patterns to be implemented and deployed at various layers of the system stack. The design framework is also useful for establishing interfaces and mechanisms to coordinate flexible fault management across hardware and software components, as well as to consider the trade-off between performance, resilience, and power consumption when constructing a solution. The resilience design patterns specification version 1.1 included more detailed explanations of the pattern solutions, the context in which the patterns are applicable, and the implications for hardware or software design. It also provided several additional examples and detailed case studies to demonstrate the use of patterns to build realistic solutions. In version 1.2 of the specification document, we have improved the pattern descriptions, including graphical representations of the pattern components. These improvements are largely based on critical comments, feedback and suggestions received from pattern experts and readers of the previous versions of the specification. The pattern classification has been modified to further clarify the relationships between pattern categories. This version of the specification also introduces a pattern language for resilience design patterns. The pattern language presents the patterns in the catalog as a network, revealing the relations among the resilience patterns. The language provides designers with the means to explore alternative techniques for handling a specific fault model that may have different efficiency and complexity characteristics. Using the pattern language also enables the design and implementation of comprehensive resilience solutions as a set of interconnected resilience patterns that can be instantiated across layers of the system stack. The overall goal of this work is to provide hardware and software designers, as well as the users and operators of HPC systems, a systematic methodology for the design and evaluation of resilience technologies in HPC systems that keep scientific applications running to a correct solution in a timely and cost-efficient manner despite frequent faults, errors, and failures of various types. Version 2.0 expands the resilience design pattern classification and catalog to include self-stabilization patterns and reliability, availability and performance models for each structural pattern.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hybrid Solar System (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

GTI Energy (GTI) teamed with the University of California at Merced (UCM) to scaleup the hybrid solar system (HSS) technology for demonstrating its performance at the US Gypsum (USG) plant in Plaster City, California. The technology integrates two-stage concentrating solar collector with matching particle thermal transport and storage (TSS) system to deliver cost-effective, and on-demand distributed high temperature industrial process heat up to 600°C with solar thermal, in this case to a gypsum kettle, to reduce its fuel use and carbon footprint. Current solar technologies, which reach these temperatures, are not distributable (towers) or cost-effective (dish). The research team developed a conceptual system design for host site retrofit, including preliminary heat balance, process flow diagram, particle to process heat exchanger and equipment placements at the site. Subsequently, parallel efforts were carried out at UCM to design, build and test a 12 m long commercial scale prototype concentrating thermal-only collector system and at GTI to design, build and test a matching 650°C capable particle TTS system. The nominal 50 kWth collector consists of a parabolic trough and three 4 m long two-stage receivers in series. Prior to on-sun testing, a 4 m long receiver was fabricated and successfully tested at 650 °C in a laboratory setting for 100 hrs of continuous operation showing less than 15% radiation loss. A 7 m wide x 17 m long parabolic trough was then installed at UCM for on-sun testing of the 12 m long receiver, and concurrently several 4 m long receivers were built. The optics of the parabolic trough were calibrated, and on-sun test were carried out on 12 m long receivers. During tests, the intense solar radiation (53x) caused the absorber tubes in the receivers to bend, reducing the overall optical efficiency. To address the bending issue, a self-consistent algorithm that includes ray tracing, thermal and deformation models was developed to perform thermal stress analysis on absorbers for parabolic solar collectors. Results obtained with this algorithm showed a dramatic rise in deformation as absorber tube length increases. A combined efficiency parameter that includes the occluded area for the mounts was developed to obtain an optimized tube length obtained. Based on the results, a length of 2.7 m for the absorber + 0.2 m for the coupler was chosen to minimize any bending and optimize optical efficiency while maintaining ease of mounting. The associated particle TTS system was designed, built and successfully tested at GTI. It includes storage, receiving and lock hoppers and piping that simulates the transfer of captured solar energy to an actual industrial furnace. Tests over 77 charge-discharge cycles demonstrated <2% particle degradation, with no problematic particle accumulations and no flow interruptions. The piping pressure drop was about 5 psi. The team also worked with Stanley Consultants (Stanley) to prepare conceptual and preliminary engineering packages to facilitate follow-on development and commercialization efforts. These include process and instrumentation diagram’s (P&ID’s), general arrangements, electrical one-line, project definitions document, equipment data sheets, schedule, and construction cost estimate for 2 MWth system. Updated HSS technology commercialization and customer engagement plans and detailed costs and evaluated market trade-offs and manufacturing.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Reproductive and leaf litterfall fluxes in forest ecosystem sites globally (1950-2022)

Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well-supported trade-off with allocation to growth. Although field measurements of total NPP are rare, our work finds that a proxy for reproductive carbon allocation constructed from leaf (L) and reproductive (R) litterfall fluxes, R/(R+L), is strongly correlated with R/NPP, facilitating analysis across a wide range of sites where biometric estimates of NPP are not available (R² = 0.85; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022, Ward et al., in prep). To investigate relationships between ecosystem-scale reproductive allocation (RA) and climate, soil fertility, and stand age gradients, we conducted a literature search and synthesized 824 observations of annual average leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes across forest sites globally. The zip file includes 1) a folder Data/ containing the litterfall data ("GlobalForestRA_data.csv") and metadata ("GlobalForestRA_metadata.doc") files. The data file includes geographic coordinates, long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation (1970-2000, extracted from WorldClim2.1), leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes, sampling interval and protocols, forest characteristics (dominant leaf morphology, information pertaining to forest age and successional stage, and disturbance history) and soil properties (% sand, %silt, %clay, total phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH) extracted from SoilGrids250 and from on-site measurements, where available. The metadata file contains information about each variable reported in the data file, including data sources, processing methods, and all references. The Data folder contains two additional files used to create Figure 1; these are described in greater detail in the README.2) R scripts GloalForestRA_analysis.r and GlobalForestRA_SI.r and a folder /Functions used to produce results, figures, and tables in the manuscript Ward et al. (in press)3) a README file describing how the data and R scripts can be used to reproduce statistical results, figures, and tables found in the manuscript. Ward et al. (in press)This repository can also be found at: https://github.com/r-ward/Global_Analysis_ForestRA.Ward, R.E., Zhang-Zheng, H. Aernethy, K., Adu-Bredu, S., Arroyo, L., Bailey, A. et al. (in press). Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally. Ecology Letters. Hanbury-Brown, A.R., Ward, R.E. & Kueppers, L.M. (2022). Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward. New Phytol., 235, 20–40.Ward et al. (2025), Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally, in prep.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ginsparg-Wilson Hamiltonians with Improved Chiral Symmetry

We construct a family of Ginsparg-Wilson Hamiltonians with improved chiral properties, starting from a construction of Creutz-Horvath-Neuberger that provides a doubler-free Hamiltonian lattice regularization for Dirac fermions in even spacetime dimensions. We use a higher-order generalization of the Ginsparg-Wilson relation due to Fujikawa, which yields an order-$k$ Hamiltonian overlap operator for each integer $k \geq 0$, with an exactly conserved but nonquantized chiral charge that becomes quantized as $k \to \infty$. Our construction provides physical insight into how Fujikawa's higher-order Ginsparg-Wilson relation improves chiral symmetry while reproducing the anomaly, highlighting the trade-offs inherent in any Hamiltonian lattice realization of an anomalous chiral symmetry. This class of Hamiltonian lattice regularizations, with their tunable chiral symmetry properties, offers potential advantages for quantum and tensor-network simulations.

Singh, Hersh [Fermilab]↗

Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawatt-scale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Flower‐Type Organized Trade‐Wind Cumulus: A Multi‐Day Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulation Intercomparison Study

Shallow cumulus cloud fields in subtropical marine trade wind environments, particularly over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, show distinct organizational patterns. Among these, Flower‐type clouds are characterized by expansive stratiform cloud patches surrounded by regions of scattered convection. The objectives of this study were (a) to construct a case study of a time period during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign when Flower‐type organization was observed, (b) to evaluate the fidelity of a multi‐model ensemble of large eddy simulations of that case, and (c) to analyze the interaction between cloud and precipitation processes and mesoscale organization in the simulations. The simulations follow a quasi‐Lagrangian trajectory, allowing mesoscale features to develop over time in a domain that follows the boundary‐layer airmass. The results show a broad agreement in simulated thermodynamic properties across different LES codes, with Flower‐type cloud patches appearing within hours of each other. The consensus among models is consistent with observations made during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign on the specific day of interest. The cloud structure reveals three distinct peaks in the joint probability densities of cloud base and cloud top height, with the dominant peak at any given time influenced by the stage of cloud organization. The simulated cloud system evolution reveals consistent occurrence of maxima in liquid water path and rain rate before Flower reaches its maximum length scale. Targeted sensitivity tests reveal a weak relationship between Cloud Droplet Number concentration and the extent/degree/type of organization.

EUREC4A↗

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗