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The Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems (DAHCS) Mission Campaign Whitepaper

The DAHCS (pronounced “Dax”) MC is a 7-year, $\$$45 million research portfolio within Sandia’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development program. The DAHCS MC arose in response to a great need: to ensure that the use of digital technologies does not weaken our nation’s high consequence systems. Digital technologies offer many benefits in speed, cost, and flexibility, and we seek to reap those benefits without introducing new system failures. However, digital technologies cannot be evaluated the same way as analog technologies. Initiatives across the nation highlight the capability gap that prevents efficient, effective digital assurance. The Challenge Today’s digital assurance tools, techniques, and methods are inadequate to confidently characterize, assess, and manage digital risk; they are ad hoc, slow, costly, and rarely scalable to increasingly complex digital technologies. The rapidly evolving cyber threat landscape exacerbates this problem because digital assurance now must secure against digital risks now and in the future, including those introduced by rapidly evolving technologies, adversaries, and systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Shorter function summaries for finite state machine-based high consequence systems using logic synthesis and tautologies (Final Report LDRD 24-1302)

Computer programs are often viewed as collections of functions – each function has parameters (inputs) and computes a return value, and each has potential side effects that modify program state (outputs). In this research, a Sandia symbolic execution tool designed to support “human-in-the-loop” analysis was modified to automatically create “function summaries,” and a new tool, “diaboolical,” was created to support enhancing readability of the summary using a novel approach to bit-vector simplification that leverages logic synthesis and tautologies. For this effort, students at Auburn University created several finite state machines (FSMs) to serve as exemplars for high-consequence systems. Function summaries for each of the machines were obtained, and then portions of the summaries were simplified using both diaboolical and the simplification procedure of a popular SMT solver. A comparison of the results shows that diaboolical can often produce smaller function summaries, with expression length improvements over the unsimplified function summaries ranging from 0% to 90% for diaboolical and 0% to 65% for the SMT solver, though diaboolical had a significantly greater cost in time. Diaboolical was evaluated against a collection of “arbitrary” C-code as well as FSM exemplars, and for both datasets it achieved an approximately 10% improvement in expression length compared to simplifications that could be obtained using existing techniques. Function summaries can assist assurance efforts that evaluate existing systems and their executable code. A smaller function summary is likely easier for humans to understand and could thus increase the ability and efficacy of assurance practices centered around the analysis of executable artifacts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Assessing and Enabling Trustworthy Predictions for High-Consequence Decisions

Predictions from physics-based computational models provide critical information to inform high consequence decisions, e.g., engineering design decisions. The ability to assess the reliability of such predictions is therefore critical. However, to date, reliability assessment rely heavily on expert judgment and qualitative arguments. This report details the efforts of LDRD 233072 to develop quantitative methods to assess reliability of model predictions, especially in the context of simplifying assumptions that can impact their reliability.

42 ENGINEERING

TA-54 Flanged Tritium Waste Container Operations, Radioactive Air Emissions Summary Volume 1: Stack Emissions & Off-Site Dose Consequence

In September 2025, pressure mitigation operations began on the four Flanged Tritium Waste Containers (FTWCs) that had been in storage at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Technical Area (TA-) 54, Area G, Building 1028. Each FTWC was opened at TA-54 and put into a stable configuration, then containers were moved to LANL’s Weapons Engineering Tritium Facility (WETF) for further processing in preparation for shipment off-site. Over the course of 13 operational days, the project had air emissions of 123 curies of tritium (hydrogen-3). The radiological dose to the hypothetical maximally exposed individual (MEI) member of the public from these emissions was 0.012 millirem. This is well within the limits established by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which allows 10 millirem per year to any member of the public. Naturally occurring background radiation in Northern New Mexico averages about 300-400 millirem per year to residents. This report is intended to briefly summarize operations that took place in September and October 2025, provide documentation of the radionuclide air emissions from these operations, and summarize the off-site dose consequence to the public that resulted from these air emissions. Informal notifications addressing these areas were made via email to the EPA and NMED throughout the project, and summaries of these data were also posted on the LANL external web site 1 for FTWC operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) Cyber Range Overview and Threat-to-Consequence Demonstration

This presentation was presented at the Aggregation and Grid Security Workshop - held on June 17-18, 2025, at NREL in Golden, Colorado. The goal of the two-day workshop was to address the critical cybersecurity challenges for the future electric grid. The threat-to-consequence demonstration showcases NREL's capability to model, simulate, test, and evaluate cyberattacks targeting energy systems that coincide with natural hazards, as well as the ramifications for the energy grid as a whole.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Summary of Potential Incidents and Consequences from Carbon Dioxide Pipeline and Storage Systems Construction and Operation

This document provides a high-level summary of the potential human and environmental impacts associated with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) pipeline transport, injection, and storage activities. It also reviews lessons learned from natural and industrial analogs of CO 2 storage as well as case studies of notable accidental CO 2 releases. The analysis is structured into several key sections, each addressing specific resource impacts and potential consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Foliar Application of Nettle and Japanese Knotweed Extracts on Vitis vinifera: Consequences for Plant Physiology, Biochemical Parameters, and Yield

Climate change is expected to affect grapevine physiology, berry quality, and yield in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR). In this study, nettle (NE) and Japanese knotweed (JKE) extracts were tested to verify their biostimulant effect on the physiological and biochemical parameters of grapevine leaves and in vine yields. In fact, some parameters were improved after foliar application of the plant extracts, namely the photosynthetic activity and consequently, the levels of photosynthetic pigments (Clb), starch, and total soluble sugars. We also observed a reduction in lipid peroxidation, which could play a crucial role in protecting cell membranes from oxidative damage induced by the climatic conditions prevalent in this region. Therefore, we confirmed that the foliar application of plant extracts, along with the enhancement of secondary metabolites and the upregulation of plant defense genes, as previously reported, resulted in the enhancement of grapevine physiology, while also increasing the yield at harvest. In the future, these plant extracts could serve as a vital tool for winegrowers in mitigating the effects of expected changes in climatic conditions.

Monteiro, Eliana (ORCID:0000000231675540)

Consequence Based Framework for Deployment of Cloud Solutions in the Digital Energy Transition

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a framework for consequence-driven applied risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively, and responsibly deploy cloud applications. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Heterogeneity of the Dominant Causes of Performance Loss in End-of-Life Cathodes and Their Consequences for Direct Recycling

Recycling Li-ion batteries from electric vehicles is critical for reducing costs and supporting the development of a domestic battery supply chain. Direct recycling of cathodes, like LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC), is attractive due to its low cost, energy use, and emissions compared to traditional recycling techniques. However, a comprehensive understanding of the active material properties at end-of-life is needed to guide direct recycling processes and the performance-dependent reuse applications. Here, NMC material from an end-of-life commercial pouch cell is characterized and bench-marked against pristine non-cycled counterparts with respect to capacity, impedance, crystallography, morphology, and microstructure to identify major degradation modes and understand variability in the end-of-life material. The spatial heterogeneity of each property throughout the cell is also quantified. While the degraded material demonstrated similar capacity as the pristine, its impedance and rate capability are severely diminished. Furthermore, samples from the periphery of the electrode layers showed more severe performance loss compared to samples extracted from central regions. The dominant culprit of performance loss is the material microstructure, where the magnitude of particle cracking showed the strongest correlation to the impedance components that are most unfavorably impacted. This work suggests severe cracks in cathode active materials are the primary challenge that direct recycling methods must overcome.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Adsorbate-induced adatom formation on Au-Cu bimetallic alloys and its possible consequences for CO 2 electroreduction

The adsorbate-induced formation of sub-nanometer clusters on transition-metal single crystals observed in previous high-pressure microscopic studies hinted at the in-situ formation of unique active sites even on large nanoparticle catalysts. We propose that the adatom formation energy can be used as an energetic descriptor for the initial step toward the adsorbate-induced metal-cluster formation process. This descriptor can be efficiently computed using density functional theory (DFT) calculations and applied for screening and identification of metal catalysts where this phenomenon may play an important role in generating active sites in-situ. As a proof of concept, here, we construct an adatom formation energy database for three Au x Cu y alloys (x:y = 3:1, 1:1, or 1:3) and eighteen adsorbates (H, C, N, O, F, S, Cl, Br, I, CH x , NH x (x = 1 – 3), CO, NO, and OH) commonly involved in catalytic reactions. The energetics of adatom formation were examined in all cases where the (111) terrace, (211) step-edge, and (874) kink were the sources of the adatom. We demonstrate that the presence of an adsorbate could alter not only the energetics for adatom formation but also the elemental nature of the preferred adatom being formed. Using our database, we identified promising systems which favor adsorbate-induced adatom formation under near-ambient conditions. Specifically, CO-induced adatom formation on all three Au-Cu alloy surfaces could occur under CO 2 electroreduction (CO 2 RR) conditions. This phenomenon offers a qualitative explanation for the experimentally observed CO 2 RR activity on Au-Cu alloy catalysts. As a result, our methodology offers an easily expandable and efficient approach for large-scale catalyst screening with regards to adatom/cluster formation under reaction conditions and provides insight into the possible nature of active sites on alloy catalysts from a novel perspective.

Active site

Beam focusing and consequences for Doppler backscattering measurements

The phenomenon of focusing of microwave beams in a plasma near a turning-point caustic is discussed by exploiting the analytical solution to the Gaussian beam-tracing equations in the two-dimensional (2-D) linear-layer problem. The location of maximum beam focusing and the beam width at that location are studied in terms of the beam initial conditions. This focusing must be taken into account to interpret Doppler backscattering (DBS) measurements. We find that the filter function that characterises the scattering intensity contribution along the beam path through the plasma is inversely proportional to the beam width, predicting enhanced scattering from the beam focusing region. We show that the DBS signal enhancement for decreasing incident angles between the beam path and the density gradient is due to beam focusing and not due to forward scattering, as was originally proposed by (Gusakov et al., (Plasma Phys. Contr. Fusion, vol. 56, 2014, p. 0250092014, 2017); Plasma Phys. Rep. vol. 43(6), 2017, pp. 605–613). The analytic beam model is used to predict the measurement of the k y density-fluctuation wavenumber power spectrum via DBS, showing that, in an NSTX-inspired example, the spectral exponent of the turbulent, intermediate-to-high k y density-fluctuation spectrum might be quantitatively measurable via DBS, but not the spectral peak corresponding to the driving scale of the turbulent cascade.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Inverse Consequences of the SnO 2 Protection Layers on Pt/C Catalysts in Proton-Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells

Proton-exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are promising energy-conversion systems, offering an appealing blend of high energy efficiency and low environmental impact. However, carbon corrosion of PEMFCs is known to significantly degrade their performance, remaining a critical challenge to overcome. In this study, we applied a Nb-doped SnO 2 (Nb-SnO 2 ) nanoparticle coating on Pt/C catalysts as a protective layer, with the Sn/C ratio in the precursors varying from 0.25:1 to 2.0:1. Contradictory behaviors of the coated Pt/C catalysts were observed at different Sn/C ratios. The Sn/C = 1.0 sample exhibited improved electrochemically active surface area retention after 500 cycles of accelerated stress testing (AST) but with more significant polarization and resistance increase observed in the polarization curves. In addition, agglomeration of Nb-SnO 2 particles was observed at a higher Sn/C ratio in the AST of a membrane electrode assembly, with less shrinkage of the total thickness of the Nb-SnO 2 -coated Pt/C electrode. We speculate that formation of Nb-SnO 2 agglomerates occurs once the protective layer is broken down or the unprotected carbon surface is corroded and that these Nb-SnO 2 agglomerates increase the tortuosity of the electron pathways and significantly increase the cell polarization.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION

The Kinetic Consequences of Water on Catalytic Methane Pyrolysis

Hydrogen production from biomass and natural gas has emerged as a prominent research area in response to the growing demand for energy from alternative sources that minimize CO 2 emissions. In this study, we investigate the impact of water, which is present in and generated from biomass-derived streams, on carbon nanotube (CNT) growth and hydrogen production during methane decomposition using Ni–Mo/MgO as a catalyst. We reveal here that the role of water on CNT growth is highly complex; its effect depends on the stage of growth at which the water is incorporated. When water is introduced at the beginning of methane decomposition ( t = 0 h), methane conversion rates are negatively impacted. We hypothesize that water inhibits the significant phase changes the Ni–Mo/MgO catalyst undergoes during catalyst carburization. In contrast, the incorporation of a small percentage of water after a stabilization period ( t = 3 h) results in methane conversion rate enhancements that scale with the introduced water partial pressure as water selectively reacts with amorphous carbon deposits that lead to catalyst deactivation, thus prolonging the lifetime of some of the most active sites. Moreover, water incorporation after stabilization significantly reduces the apparent activation energy. Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations reveal that water preferentially interacts with carbon fragments on the catalyst surface to remove carbon deposits with a barrier lower than that required for methane activation, further supporting its role in cleaning active sites on the catalyst surface. Characterization of the resulting carbon nanotubes reveals the formation of more graphitic materials produced in the presence of water, highlighting the impact of water on nanotube properties. These results provide clarity toward the many ways in which water, or cofeeding of biomass-derived materials, may impact catalytic methane pyrolysis rates.

carbon nanotubes