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NASA NTRS2016

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue on the Lunar Surface

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety.

lunar surface↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems: 2024 Mission Campaign White Paper

This Sandia National Laboratories Mission Campaign (MC) seeks to create the technical basis that allows national leaders to efficiently assess and manage the digital assurance of high consequence systems. We will call for transformative research that enables efficient (1) development of provably secure systems and secure integration of untrusted products, (2) intelligent threat mitigation, and (3) digital risk-informed engineering trade-offs. Ultimately, this MC will impact multiple national security missions; it will develop an informed Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems (DAHCS) community and expand Sandia partnerships to build this national capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Radiological Releases from Novel Fuel Forms in Advanced Reactors During Severe Accidents for Consequence Analyses

Various advanced reactor developers are exploring the potential for reductions in the size of physical security forces and emergency planning zones. These reductions are based on robust fuel forms and inherently safe reactor designs. However, such reductions in physical protection measures could increase the risk of sabotage. To assess the possibility of reducing these measures, sabotage-induced radiological consequence analyses were carried out. These analyses considered accident scenarios that were beyond design basis accidents and overly conservative (Shah, 2025a; Shah, 2025b; Shah and Hartanto, 2026), yielding very large release fractions. These fractions, which can be used to evaluate physical protection and emergency planning requirements, have been crudely determined and applied as demonstrations for a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025a), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025b), a heat pipe–cooled reactor (HPR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025c), and a molten salt–cooled reactor (MSR) (Shah et al., 2026). A Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) team used MELCOR—a fully integrated severe accident analysis code—to demonstrate the code’s capability to analyze advanced (i.e., not light water–cooled) reactors (including a fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor [FHR]) and calculate radiological releases to the environment during severe accidents (Wagner et al., 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2023a, and 2023b). Although the analyses were carried out to demonstrate MELCOR’s growing capability, the release source terms were estimated for advanced reactors, providing valuable insights into the accident progression and radiological releases. These findings from prior SNL studies, including estimated source terms and related sensitivity studies, were leveraged to derive source terms for postulated sabotage-induced accidents. Insights from these sensitivity studies informed the scaling of SNL’s estimated source terms for the defined accident scenarios. The derived release fractions for the severe accident scenarios for the respective reactor designs can be used to perform more nuanced dose consequence analyses to evaluate the reactors’ physical protection and emergency planning zone requirements. These analyses are in accordance with the risk-informed, performance-based approach proposed under 10 CFR Part 53. This study builds on the prior source term analyses and associated sensitivity studies by SNL to derive time-dependent and design-informed release fractions. Section 2 describes the diverse advanced reactor designs analyzed by the SNL team. Section 3 discusses the severe accident analyses, the release fractions calculated, and the limitations and assumptions of the demonstration project. Section 4 presents the release percentages derived for the hypothetical sabotage-induced severe accidents at the advanced reactors. Section 5 summarizes the study’s findings and conclusions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Worst Case Sabotage Consequence Modeling for Advanced Reactors

Under proposed rulemaking by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, advanced reactor licensees may qualify for a reduction in onsite responders if the consequences from a sabotage attack do not exceed 25 rem at the reactor site boundary 2 hours after a release occurs. This work presents a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of meeting the 25 rem at the site boundary criteria. Using advanced reactor radionuclide inventories radiological release estimates created by collaborators at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the MACCS consequence analysis code was used to investigate the distance at the dose from hypothetical sabotage events reaches 25 rem for different advanced reactor technologies. It was found that the distance to 25 rem depended heavily on sampled weather conditions and sabotage release fractions, and further refinement of release fractions and MACCS modeling parameters is recommended.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Elevated central venous pressure: A consequence of exercise training-induced hypervolemia

Resting plasma volumes, and arterial and central venous pressures (CVP) were measured in 16 men before and after exercise training to determine if training-induced hypervolemia could be explained by a change in total vascular capacitance. In addition, resting levels of plasma vasopressin (AVP), atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), aldosterone (ALD), and norepinephrine (NE) were measured before and after training. The same measurements of vacular volume, pressures, and plasma hormones were measured in 8 subjects who did not undergo exercise and acted as controls. The exercise training program consisted of 10 weeks of controlled cycle exercise for 30 min/d, 4 d/wk at 75 to 80 percent of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). A training effect was verified by a 20 percent increase in VO2max, a resting bradycardia, and a 370 ml (9 percent) increase in blood volume. Mean arterial blood pressure was unaltered by exercise training, but resting CVP increased. The percent change in blood volume from before to after training was linearly related to the percent change in CVP. As a consequence of elevations in both blood volume and CVP, the volume-to-pressure ratio was essentially unchanged following exercise training. Plasma AVP, ANP, ALD, and NE were unaltered. Results indicate that elevated CVP is a consequence of training-induced hypervolemia without alteration in total effective venous capacitance. This may represent a resetting of the pressure-volume stimulus-response relation for regulation of blood volume.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Consequences of a hydrous mantle for Venus tectonics - Predictions for Magellan

The consequences of a Venus mantle enriched in water relative to the earth are considered. If the moon-forming impact hypothesis is correct, earth may have lost substantial volatiles. Venus, however, experienced no such impact and is therefore likely to be relatively more water-rich. It is demonstrated that a higher abundance of water in the Venus mantle has the effect of inhibiting the rise of crust-forming melts and volatiles to the surface, which results in a thin stable crust, a dry, stiff upper mantle, and restricted magmatism. Conduction through a shallow thermal lithosphere dominates the removal of heat from the interior, and flow in the mantle is strongly coupled to the surface deformation. Current observations of Venus are consistent with this model. A review of the consequences of this model makes it possible to make predictions for the Magellan radar images.

Williams, David R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Possible observational consequences of primordial binaries in globular clusters

The paper investigates the observational consequences of the evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster. For those binary systems which begin mass transfer at orbital periods of less than about 1 d, the system is expected to evolve to a contact binary stage and to eventually merge to form a single star. At longer orbital periods, the binary system will enter into a common envelope stage. For periods less than about 10 d, the system is likely to merge, and the outcome of the evolution is a single red giant star. For systems characterized by orbital periods greater than about 15 d, a detached red dwarf-white dwarf binary system is expected to change. As a consequence of the mergers, a range in masses for the red giant stars is possible, leading to a color spread on the RGB of the color magnitude diagram. The luminosity function of stars at high luminosities is expected to steepen as a result of tidal interaction in the binary. It is suggested that the formation of cataclysmic variables via primordial binaries is expected only in loosely bound clusters of low-velocity dispersion.

Taam, Ronald E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Near-Sun solar wind consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena observed by radio scintillation measurements

Since radio propagation measurements using either natural or spacecraft radio signals are used for probing the solar wind in the vicinity of the sun, they represent a key tool for studying the interplanetary consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena. New information on the near sun consequences was obtained from radio scintillation observations of coherent spacecraft signals. The results covering density fluctuations, fractional density fluctuations, coronal streamers, heliospheric current sheets, coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks are reviewed. A joint ICE S-band (13 cm wavelength) Doppler scintillation measurement with the SOHO white-light coronograph (LASCO) is described.

Woo, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1995

Tests and consequences of disk plus halo models of gamma-ray burst sources

The gamma-ray burst observations made by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and by previous experiments are still consistent with a combined Galactic disk (or Galactic spiral arm) plus extended Galactic halo model. Testable predictions and consequences of the disk plus halo model are discussed here; tests performed on the expanded BATSE database in the future will constrain the allowed model parameters and may eventually rule out the disk plus halo model. Using examples, it is shown that if the halo has an appropriate edge, BATSE will never detect an anisotropic signal from the halo of the Andromeda galaxy. A prediction of the disk plus halo model is that the fraction of the bursts observed to be in the 'disk' population rises as the detector sensitivity improves. A careful reexamination of the numbers of bursts in the two populations for the pre-BATSE databases could rule out this class of models. Similarly, it is predicted that different satellites will observe different relative numbers of bursts in the two classes for any model in which there are two different spatial distribiutions of the sources, or for models in which there is one spatial distribution of the sources that is sampled to different depths for the two classes. An important consequence of the disk plus halo model is that for the birthrate of the halo sources to be small compared to the birthrate of the disk sources, it is necessary for the halo sources to release many orders of magnitude more energy over their bursting lifetime than the disk sources. The halo bursts must also be much more luminous than the disk bursts; if this disk-halo model is correct, it is necessary to explain why the disk sources do not produce halo-type bursts.

Smith, I. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The sympathetic nervous system and the physiologic consequences of spaceflight: a hypothesis

Many of the physiologic consequences of weightlessness and the cardiovascular abnormalities on return from space could be due, at least in part, to alterations in the regulation of the autonomic nervous system. In this article, the authors review the rationale and evidence for an autonomic mediation of diverse changes that occur with spaceflight, including the anemia and hypovolemia of weightlessness and the tachycardia and orthostatic intolerance on return from space. This hypothesis is supported by studies of two groups of persons known to have low catecholamine levels: persons subjected to prolonged bedrest and persons with syndromes characterized by low circulating catecholamines (Bradbury-Eggleston syndrome and dopamine beta-hydroxylase deficiency). Both groups exhibit the symptoms mentioned. The increasing evidence that autonomic mechanisms underlie many of the physiologic consequences of weightlessness suggests that new pharmacologic approaches (such as administration of beta-blockers and/or sympathomimetic amines) based on these findings may attenuate these unwanted effects.

short duration↗

NASA NTRS1991

Elevated central venous pressure: a consequence of exercise training-induced hypervolemia?

Resting blood volumes and arterial and central venous pressures (CVP) were measured in 14 men before and after exercise training to determine whether training-induced hypervolemia is accompanied by a change in total vascular capacitance. In addition, resting levels of plasma arginine vasopressin (AVP), atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), aldosterone (Ald), and norepinephrine (NE) were measured. The same measurements were conducted in seven subjects who did not undergo exercise and acted as controls. Exercise training consisted of 10 wk of controlled cycle exercise for 30 min/day, 4 days/wk at 75-80% of maximal O2 uptake (VO2max). A training effect was verified by a 20% increase in VO2max, a resting bradycardia, and a 9% increase in blood volume. Mean arterial blood pressure was unaltered by exercise training, but resting CVP increased by 16% (P less than 0.05). The percent change in blood volume from before to after training was linearly related to the percent change in CVP (r = 0.903, P less than 0.05). As a consequence of elevations in both blood volume and CVP, the volume-to-pressure ratio was unchanged after exercise training. Plasma AVP, ANP, Ald, and NE were unaltered. Our results indicate that elevated CVP is a consequence of training-induced hypervolemia without alteration in total effective venous capacitance.

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗

NASA NTRS2005

Structural and energetic consequences of mutations in a solvated hydrophobic cavity

The structural and energetic consequences of modifications to the hydrophobic cavity of interleukin 1-beta (IL-1beta) are described. Previous reports demonstrated that the entirely hydrophobic cavity of IL-1beta contains positionally disordered water. To gain a better understanding of the nature of this cavity and the water therein, a number of mutant proteins were constructed by site-directed mutagenesis, designed to result in altered hydrophobicity of the cavity. These mutations involve the replacement of specific phenylalanine residues, which circumscribe the cavity, with tyrosine, tryptophan, leucine and isoleucine. Using differential scanning calorimetry to determine the relative stabilities of the wild-type and mutant proteins, we found all of the mutants to be destabilizing. X-ray crystallography was used to identify the structural consequences of the mutations. No clear correlation between the hydrophobicities of the specific side-chains introduced and the resulting stabilities was found.

Solvents/chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Decompression Sickness and Venous Gas Emboli Consequences of Air Breaks During 100% Oxygen Prebreathe

Not enough is known about the increased risk of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) and production of venous (VGE) and arterial (AGE) gas emboli following an air break in an otherwise normal 100% resting oxygen (O2) prebreathe (PB), and certainly a break in PB when exercise is used to accelerate nitrogen (N2) elimination from the tissues. Current Aeromedical Flight Rules at the Johnson Space Center about additional PB payback times are untested, possibly too conservative, and therefore not optimized for operational use. A 10 min air break at 90 min into a 120 min PB that includes initial dual-cycle ergometry for 10 min will show a measurable increase in the risk of DCS and VGE after ascent to 4.3 psia compared to a 10 min break at 15 min into the PB, or when there is no break in PB. Data collection with humans begins in 2005, but here we first evaluate the hypothesis using three models of tissue N2 kinetics: Model I is a simple single half-time compartment exponential model, Model II is a three compartment half-time exponential model, and Model III is a variable half-time compartment model where the percentage of maximum O2 consumption for the subject during dual-cycle ergometry exercise defines the half-time compartment. Model I with large rate constants to simulate an exercise effect always showed a late break in PB had the greatest consequence. Model II showed an early break had the greatest consequence. Model III showed there was no difference between early or late break in exercise PB. Only one of these outcomes will be observed when humans are tested. Our results will favor one of these models, and so advance our understanding of tissue N2 kinetics, and of altitude DCS after an air break in PB.

Conkin, J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Selected Systems Engineering Process Deficiencies and Their Consequences

The systems engineering process is well established and well understood. While this statement could be argued in the light of the many systems engineering guidelines and that have been developed, comparative review of these respective descriptions reveal that they differ primarily in the number of discrete steps or other nuances, and are at their core essentially common. Likewise, the systems engineering textbooks differ primarily in the context for application of systems engineering or in the utilization of evolved tools and techniques, not in the basic method. Thus, failures in systems engineering cannot credibly be attributed to implementation of the wrong systems engineering process among alternatives. However, numerous systems failures can be attributed to deficient implementation of the systems engineering process. What may clearly be perceived as a system engineering deficiency in retrospect can appear to be a well considered system engineering efficiency in real time - an efficiency taken to reduce cost or meet a schedule, or more often both. Typically these efficiencies are grounded on apparently solid rationale, such as reuse of heritage hardware or software. Over time, unintended consequences of a systems engineering process deficiency may begin to be realized, and unfortunately often the consequence is system failure. This paper describes several actual cases of system failures that resulted from deficiencies in their systems engineering process implementation, including the Ariane 5 and the Hubble Space Telescope.

Thomas, Lawrence Dale↗

NASA NTRS2008

Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and its Consequences: An Update

This Technical Publication updates estimates for cycle 24 minimum and discusses consequences associated with cycle 23 being a longer than average period cycle and cycle 24 having parametric minimum values smaller (or larger for the case of spotless days) than long term medians. Through December 2007, cycle 23 has persisted 140 mo from its 12-mo moving average (12-mma) minimum monthly mean sunspot number occurrence date (May 1996). Longer than average period cycles of the modern era (since cycle 12) have minimum-to-minimum periods of about 139.0+/-6.3 mo (the 90-percent prediction interval), inferring that cycle 24 s minimum monthly mean sunspot number should be expected before July 2008. The major consequence of this is that, unless cycle 24 is a statistical outlier (like cycle 21), its maximum amplitude (RM) likely will be smaller than previously forecast. If, however, in the course of its rise cycle 24 s 12-mma of the weighted mean latitude (L) of spot groups exceeds 24 deg, then one expects RM >131, and if its 12-mma of highest latitude (H) spot groups exceeds 38 deg, then one expects RM >127. High-latitude new cycle spot groups, while first reported in January 2008, have not, as yet, become the dominant form of spot groups. Minimum values in L and H were observed in mid 2007 and values are now slowly increasing, a precondition for the imminent onset of the new sunspot cycle.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Heliospheric Consequences

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission has accumulated a wealth of information on CMEs with unprecedented extent, clarity, and uniformity. The CME data base has been useful in confirming results from past missions and obtaining a number of new results on the initiation, propagation, and heliospheric consequences of CMEs. This paper highlights some of the recent results on the morphological, physical, and kinematic properties of CMEs observed during solar cycle 23. White-light signatures of CMEs and their utility in inferring coronal magnetic fields near the Sun will be discussed. Presence of coronal holes near eruption regions have been shown to significantly modify the trajectories of CMEs. New results on the interaction of CMEs with large-scale structures such as coronal holes and other CMEs will be presented. Finally, the CME consequences in the heliosphere such as interplanetary shocks, type II radio bursts, energetic particles, geomagnetic storms, and cosmic ray modulation will be discussed

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

NASA NTRS2012

System Safety and the Unintended Consequence

The analysis and identification of risks often result in design changes or modification of operational steps. This paper identifies the potential of unintended consequences as an over-looked result of these changes. Examples of societal changes such as prohibition, regulatory changes including mandating lifeboats on passenger ships, and engineering proposals or design changes to automobiles and spaceflight hardware are used to demonstrate that the System Safety Engineer must be cognizant of the potential for unintended consequences as a result of an analysis. Conclusions of the report indicate the need for additional foresight and consideration of the potential effects of analysis-driven design, processing changes, and/or operational modifications.

Watson, Clifford↗