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Results for “conditional expectations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning reveals factors that control ion mobility in anti-perovskite solid electrolytes

Solid-state batteries are projected to exhibit improved energy densities and safety compared to liquid-electrolyte-based systems. Consequently, the development of solid electrolytes that can conduct cations at rates comparable to that of liquid electrolytes is an active area of research. To facilitate this search it is desirable to understand the chemical and structural features that control ion transport through a crystalline lattice. Here, machine learning (ML) is used to identify features that influence ion mobility in solids, quantify the relative importance of those features, and demonstrate how the variation of individual features alters ion mobility. Adopting the anti-perovskite lattice as a model system, ML algorithms were trained to predict migration barriers from a data set containing hundreds of barriers calculated using density functional theory. In this study, more than 10 6 feature sets of non-redundant descriptors were evaluated for their ability to predict migration barriers. The present analysis correctly reiterates the importance of several features that are known to influence mobility – for example, anion polarizability – but also identifies others whose importance is not widely recognized. Lattice properties such as hopping distance and channel width exhibit the greatest influence on cation mobility. Individual conditional expectation analyses performed on these features shows that barriers decrease as hopping distance decreases and as channel width increases. The defect formation energy – which is commonly associated with the concentration of defects, but not with their mobility – is identified as an important feature for interstitial migration. In sum, this analysis aids in the design of optimal solid electrolytes by simplifying the multi-dimensional design space to a sub-set of properties that are the most important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progress towards edge-localized mode suppression via magnetic perturbations in hydrogen plasmas

Abstract The suppression of edge-localized modes (ELMs) by applying resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) is well studied in low collisionality deuterium plasmas as a measure to reduce transient divertor heat loads. However, ELM suppression has yet to be demonstrated in non-nuclear fuels such as hydrogen and hydrogen + helium mixtures which are the main ion species to be used in the ITER pre-fusion power operation (PFPO) phase. For the first time, attempts have been made to access ELM suppression with RMPs in ITER-like low collisionality hydrogen plasmas at DIII-D and ASDEX Upgrade. The DIII-D experiments focused on operation with injected power slightly above the L–H power threshold similar to the expected conditions in the ITER PFPO phase with limited external heating power. The RMPs were found to trigger H–L backtransitions, which is shown to be avoided by reducing the L–H power threshold by diluting the plasma with helium. The additional helium combined with a larger measured neutral density of hydrogen inside the separatrix compared to ELM suppressed deuterium plasmas precluded access to a pedestal top density below the known RMP-ELM suppression threshold. At ASDEX Upgrade, RMP-ELM suppression has been achieved when the concentration of 1 H in the hydrogen isotope mix is below 40 % . While all known access criteria for RMP-ELM suppression were met above this threshold, full ELM suppression was replaced by strong mitigation. The most prominent difference between the hydrogen and deuterium plasmas was a change of turbulence characteristics in the pedestal where Doppler reflectometry measurements suggest a significant reduction of turbulence even at small hydrogen concentrations. In conclusion, these experiments not only identify issues that may prevent access to RMP-ELM suppression in the ITER PFPO phase, but also highlight missing physics in our current understanding of RMP-ELM suppression such as potentially the role of turbulence in the pedestal gradient region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly detection in collider physics via factorized observables

To maximize the discovery potential of high-energy colliders, experimental searches should be sensitive to unforeseen new physics scenarios. This goal has motivated the use of machine learning for unsupervised anomaly detection. In this paper, we introduce a new anomaly detection strategy called : factorized observables for regressing conditional expectations. Our approach is based on the inductive bias of factorization, which is the idea that the physics governing different energy scales can be treated as approximately independent. Assuming factorization holds separately for signal and background processes, the appearance of nontrivial correlations between low- and high-energy observables is a robust indicator of new physics. Under the most restrictive form of factorization, a machine-learned model trained to identify such correlations will in fact converge to the optimal new physics classifier. We test on a benchmark anomaly detection task for the Large Hadron Collider involving collimated sprays of particles called jets. By teasing out correlations between the kinematics and substructure of jets, our method can reliably extract percent-level signal fractions. This strategy for uncovering new physics adds to the growing toolbox of anomaly detection methods for collider physics with a complementary set of assumptions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiative Particle-in-Cell Simulations of Turbulent Comptonization in Magnetized Black-Hole Coronae

We report results from the first radiative particle-in-cell simulations of strong Alfvénic turbulence in plasmas of moderate optical depth. The simulations are performed in a local 3D periodic box and self-consistently follow the evolution of radiation as it interacts with a turbulent electron-positron plasma via Compton scattering. We focus on the conditions expected in magnetized coronae of accreting black holes and obtain an emission spectrum consistent with the observed hard state of Cyg X-1. Most of the turbulence power is transferred directly to the photons via bulk Comptonization, shaping the peak of the emission around 100 keV. The rest is released into nonthermal particles, which generate the MeV spectral tail. As a result, the method presented here shows promising potential for ab initio modeling of various astrophysical sources and opens a window into a new regime of kinetic plasma turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Bulk Oxygen Capacity and Transient Redox Behavior of Foamed Lanthanum Strontium Manganese Perovskites

Synthesis of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production redox materials with engineered structures, for example, replica foams, can enable efficient heat and mass transport and are critical for scaled-up systems. Prior work has motivated the use of lanthanum strontium manganese (LSM)-type perovskites as foamed STCH materials, but the effect of their morphology on bulk and kinetic behavior has not been reported. In this work, replica and direct foamed samples of La 0.65 Sr 0.35 MnO 3-δ (LSM35) were fabricated and compared to synthesized powders and dense monoliths, and similarly synthesized CeO 2-δ (ceria) foams, regarding their specific reaction rates and bulk oxygen capacity/H 2 yields. Changes in oxygen capacity (Δδ) and reaction rates were measured between 1200 °C and 1400 °C by using fixed ratios of steam and hydrogen during both reduction and oxidation steps, allowing for analysis under practical high conversion conditions. Results suggest bulk behavior and reaction rates of the foamed LSM materials are comparable to their powder analogues. Differences in reaction rates were observed only when replica foamed samples were subjected to rapid laser heating (emulating conditions expected in solar furnaces), which is expected but has not been demonstrated at such a small scale. Here, foamed samples were further subjected to 50 redox cycles at 1400 °C to evaluate their stability. Results show no statistically significant decrease in hydrogen production for any of the foamed samples, but the direct foamed samples became brittle with time. Together, these results demonstrate the viability of replica foamed LSM perovskites for integration in scaled-up STCH systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Heat Transfer in a Trapped-Vortex Combustor Designed for High-Temperature Material Testing

Next generation gas turbines will reduce carbon emissions by improving their cycle efficiencies and implementing hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel. The combined-cycle efficiency can be improved by increasing the combustor outlet temperature and decreasing the cooling air required for hot-section parts. Ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) can survive increasingly extreme environments due to their strong mechanical properties at expected conditions. The introduction of CMCs in high-hydrogen flame environments requires testing at realistic conditions that mimic the thermochemical and fluid mechanic states in gas-turbine combustors. In this work, we describe a new experiment that has been designed to test high-temperature materials in a combustor-relevant environment. Its trapped-vortex combustor chamber design allows for high levels of fuel flexibility and wide flame stability limits. Testing of monolithic silicon carbide (SiC) samples in this environment was done to characterize the heat transfer to material samples over a wide range of operating conditions, including variations in fuel composition and thermal power. Heat flux measurements were verified in non-reacting and reacting environments after which they were benchmarked with previous literature to verify the operation of the facility with heated air. Testing in combustor-relevant conditions shows high levels of heat flux to the material samples in the combustor, particularly downstream of the anchored flame.

Richins, Porter [Pennsylvania State University , ,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Borate and Organics on U(VI) Solubility in WIPP Brine

The solubility of uranium (VI) in Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)-relevant brine was determined to support ongoing WIPP recertification activities. This research was performed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory Carlsbad Operations (LANL-CO) Actinide Chemistry and Repository Science Program (ACRSP). The WIPP Actinide Source Term Program (ASTP) did not develop a model for the solubility of actinides in the VI oxidation state. The solubility of UO 2 2+ , in the absence of WIPP specific data, is presently set to be equal to a conservatively high 1 mM within the WIPP Performance Assessment (PA) for all expected WIPP conditions (SOTERM, 2019) as selected at the recommendation of the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) (EPA, 2005). According to the current WIPP chemistry model assumptions and conditions, the expected pC H+ is about 9.5 and controlled by MgO buffering CO 3 2- . The goal of this study is to perform screening experiments that account for the contributions of organics and borate on uranium solubility. In this report, the solubility of U(VI) was determined at pC H+ 9 WIPP brine in the absence or presence of borate and organics at under-saturation approach. Experiments were equilibrated for about 135 days. Organic compounds present in WIPP waste can form strong complexes with actinides and can affect the oxidation states of actinides. The organic compounds addressed in WIPP performance assessment include EDTA (Ethylenediaminetetraacetic Acid), oxalate, citrate, and acetate (SOTERM, 2019). These data quantify the effects of WIPP-relevant concentrations of borate and organics effects on the solubility of U(VI) to challenge the predictions of the WIPP actinide model and inform decisions and recommendations made in the upcoming recertification of the WIPP (CRA-2024). The experiments performed were done according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved Test Plan entitled “Experimental Strategy to Challenge Actinide Solubility Predictions” and designated LCO-ACP-26. All data reported were obtained under the LANL-CO Quality Assurance Program, which is compliant with the DOE Carlsbad Field Office, Quality Assurance Program Document (CBFO/QAPD) (QAPD, 2017).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary prediction of long-term aging and creep behavior of AM 316 SS

This report describes the development of initial mechanism models for the long term behavior of additively manufactured (AM), laser powder-bed fusion 316H stainless steel under the conditions expected in future advanced nuclear reactors. These models focus on key features of the material microstructure and response that differ from the conventionally-manufactured wrought material. Specifically, the report describes the development of models to capture the unique response of the AM material focusing on irradiation creep and swelling, the effect of internal stress, for example caused by dislocation structure, on precipitation, and the effect of the AM grain and dislocation structure on the macroscale creep and thermal aging behavior. This single mechanism models represent progress towards a complete, physics-based model for the long-term material behavior as well as elucidate key differences in the AM material behavior, when compared to the better-understood, conventionally-manufactured 316H.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability and Durability Testing of Glass Ceramic Seals for Praxair’s Oxygen Transport Membranes

Praxair has been developing Oxygen Transport Membrane (OTM) systems for the efficient conversion of natural gas to syngas which can subsequently be used in chemical synthesis, generation of industrial gases (H2, CO) or synthesis of liquid fuels. One of the technical barriers for commercialization of this technology is the reliability of key components of OTM systems – Seals and Membranes. Praxair has been testing these components at the process conditions expected for commercial systems. However, long-term durability data is currently limited and is not sufficiently available to make well informed predictions of OTM reliability which represents one of the major risks that could prevent the technology from being fully commercialized. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing high temperature seals and ceramic membranes for applications similar to OTM systems such as Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. The goal of the cooperative development between Praxair and PNNL is to generate long-term data such that there is sufficient confidence in the OTM seal and membrane reliability predictions to enable the process technology to be fully commercialized.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scoping Thermal Response Calculations of RNS Waste During Transport to and Disposal at the WIPP

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was contracted by the United States Department of Energy Environmental Management (DOE-EM), Los Alamos Field Office to perform mechanical and thermal scoping calculations as part of a study seeking to understand the ignitability risk of the Remediated Nitrate Salts (RNS) waste drums during transportation from the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) facility to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and permanent disposal of the waste at WIPP. The scoping thermal simulations described in this report pertain to thermal calculations performed with a packaging system consisting of one Standard Waste Box (SWB) loaded with drums placed inside a Standard Large Box 2 (SLB2). During transportation, the SLB2 is inside Transuranic Package Transporter Model III (TRUPACT-III), which provides the third layer of the packaging. Once at the WIPP, it is assumed the SLB2 is extracted from the TRUPACT-III and maintained above ground, and then subsequently placed underground for permanent disposal. In these proposed configurations, the space between the SLB2 and the SWB is always filled by a layer of insulation consisting of air-filled glass microbubbles except for the bottom which rests directly on the SLB2. The thermal scoping calculations described in this report specifically address whether the introduction of external heat inputs, combined with the contributions from the internally generated radiolytic decay heat and chemical reactions, lead to an unstable thermal state during the time of its movement and placement in the permanent disposal location. The external heat inputs are of two forms: 1) ambient thermal irradiation (e.g., solar and ambient storage/disposal temperatures) and 2) accident-induced fire. Three scoping calculation scenarios were derived as representative, conservative scenarios: 1A) TRUPACT-III transient transportation, 1B) SLB2 48-hour outdoor storage with solar radiation, and 2) fully-engulfing fire during SLB2 handling or emplacement following a steady-state analysis in a 38 °C environment. All the simulated scenarios are conservative relative to the operational conditions expected for handling the waste package during transportation and placement in the WIPP underground disposal unit. The predictions obtained from simulating the three exposure scenarios revealed that adding the SLB2 and the air-filled glass microbubbles to the transport and storage/disposal configurations provides additional thermal protection of the drums beyond what the SWB provides alone, both during long-term above ground insolation and underground during a fire accident. Under the current transportation/storage/disposal concepts, the degree of protection provided by the packaging concept is sufficient to prevent the waste from being ignitable. The simulation results demonstrate that there is adequate margin to safely transport and place the RNS waste from WCS to the WIPP under the current operational concept.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational and Experimental Investigation of Thermal-Mechanical- Chemical Mechanisms of High-burnup Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Processes at Elevated Temperatures and Degradation Behavior in Geologic Repositories

The overarching goal of the combined computational and experimental R&D activities proposed in this project is to enhance understanding of the mechanisms and thermal-mechanical-chemical (TMC) parameters controlling the instant release fraction (IRF) and matrix dissolution of high-burnup (HB; burnup) spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) and the subsequent formation, stability, and phase transformations of SNF alteration products under long-term storage and geological disposal conditions. Uranium dioxide may undergo oxidative corrosion/alteration, and the IRF may be increased for HB SNF, both of which may affect environmental systems associated with SNF long-term storage and disposal. The oxidative matrix dissolution may form various complex uranyl-based phases, including a rich variety of oxides, silicates, carbonates and other secondary minerals in varied geological environments (e.g., studtite, metastudtite, amorphous uranyl peroxide, uranium trioxide, triuranium octoxide, schoepite, dehydrated schoepite, metaschoepite, becquerelite, soddyite, rutherfordine,...). These uranyl phases generally have higher mobility UO 2 +2 species than less soluble U 4+ phases. However, limited information on the thermodynamic properties and formation kinetics of these uranyl-bearing phases is available to predict explicitly paragenesis under the conditions relevant to long-term storage or disposal. The proposed project draws on complementary expertise and research backgrounds from the team members: (i) to apply a combined ab initio modeling (UNLV/UTEP and SNL) and experimental (UNLV) strategy investigating the high-temperature TMC mechanisms of alteration of SNF under α-radiolysis conditions; (ii) to investigate the mechanistic of phase transformations in UNF degradation products under various conditions expected in long-term storage systems (e.g. (UO 2 )O 2 (H 2 O) 4 → (UO 2 )O 2 (H 2 O) 2 → U 2 O 7 → UO 3 → U 3 O 8 ); (iii) to determine high-accuracy TMC parameters for complex uranyl-based phases formed in storage or geological disposal environments (e.g. UO 3 (H 2 O) 2 , Ca[(UO 2 ) 6 O 4 (OH) 8 ] 8 H 2 O, (UO 2 ) 2 (SiO 4 ) 3 2H 2 O,…). The unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic led to the laboratory/campus closure since March 2020, that resulted in a significant delay in reaching milestones in a satisfactory manner, due to (i) the statewide recommendation from stop-working to later limited work in the lab and work-from-home (WFH), (ii) no in-person interactions, and (iii) a hiring freeze at UNLV. Therefore, a no cost extension (10/01/2021- 9/30/2022) was requested to help make up the time we lost during the global pandemic in 2020-2021, leading to paradigm shifts in the focus of the project in the following three main tasks: Task 1 (Computational), Task 2 (Experimental), and Task 3 (Final report, due on 12/29/2022).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the effect of grain structure and porosity on creep for powder bed fusion 316H

This report details results from modeling studies focused on identifying the potential factors influencing creep performance of 316H stainless steel manufactured using Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF), with a focus on experimentally-observed and predicted differences between the response of the AM material and conventionally manufactured wrought 316H. The studies presented here systematically look at the role of grain structure, porosity and texture in the anisotropic creep behavior of the material under conditions expected in high temperature advanced nuclear reactors. A physics-based Crystal Plasticity Finite Element modeling approach has allowed us to look at these factors in isolation and study their role in the material's long-term deformation behavior. An update to the precipitation model used in the constitutive framework for 316H is also presented here, with the aim of improving the accuracy of our results from this modeling effort. This work is a step in the direction of gaining mechanistic understanding of the long-term deformation behavior of LPBF 316H, helping us model its long term performance and reducing the qualification time for the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of CNN-Based Image Classification Approaches for Implementation of Low-Cost Multispectral Arcing Detection

Camera-based sensing has benefited in recent years from developments in machine learning data processing methods, as well as improved data collection options such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) mounted sensors. However, cost considerations, both for the initial purchase of sensors as well as updates, maintenance, or potential replacement if damaged, can limit adoption of more expensive sensing options for some applications. To evaluate more affordable options with less expensive, more available, and more easily replaceable hardware, we examine the use of machine learning-based image classification with custom datasets, utilizing deep learning based-image classification and the use of ensemble models for sensor fusion. Utilizing the same models for each camera to reduce technical overhead, we showed that for a very representative training dataset, camera-based detection can be successful for detection of electrical arcing. We also use multiple validation datasets, based on conditions expected to be of varying difficulty, to evaluate custom data. These results show that ensemble models of different data sources can mitigate risks from gaps in training data, though the system will be less redundant for those cases unless other precautions are taken. We found that with good quality custom datasets, data fusion models can be utilized without specialization in design to the specific cameras utilized, allowing for less specialized, more accessible equipment to be utilized as multispectral camera components. This approach can provide an alternative to expensive sensing equipment for applications in which lower-cost or more easily replaceable sensing equipment is desirable.

convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

The IDEA detector concept for FCC-ee

A detector concept, named IDEA, optimized for the physics and running conditions at the FCC-ee is presented. After discussing the expected running conditions and the main physics drivers, a detailed description of the individual sub-detectors is given. These include: a very light tracking system with a powerful vertex detector inside a large drift chamber surrounded by a silicon wrapper, a high resolution dual readout crystal electromagnetic calorimeter, an HTS based superconducting solenoid, a dual readout fiber calorimeter and three layers of muon chambers embedded in the magnet flux return yoke. Some examples of the expected detector performance, based on fast and full simulation, are also given.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber100 Compass: Quantification of Cybersecurity Risks for Systems Transitioning to High Levels of Renewables (Final Report)

The shift to high levels of renewable deployment will entail a significant re-engineering of the grid. As investors, utilities, customers, and others prepare for clean energy transitions, there is need to understand how restructuring the grid to accommodate renewables will change the attack surface of the grid and accompanying cyber risk. However, today the cyber-physical risks associated with electric grids incorporating high levels of renewable deployment remain largely unknown. The Cyber100 Compass proof-of-concept application attempts to quantify future cyber-physical security risks by combining risk data gathered from subject matter experts (SMEs) with input from system planners about conditions they expect to be true about their electric systems in the future. Users provide data about their organization’s tolerance for risk; the value they place on avoiding the consequences of different cyber events; and conditions that they expect to be true on their systems at some point in the future. The SMEs provide baseline probabilities for different cyber events; the probability that an event will be low-, moderate-, or high-impact; and the amount by which user-identified conditions on their systems will change the likelihood of the cyber events. The application takes both the user and SME input and performs a series of Monte Carlo simulations to arrive at a quantification of risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗