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An Automatic Learning Framework for Smart Residential Communities

Predictability has been foundational to matching supply and demand in the day-to-day operation of the electric power system. Demand predictability is eroding because of the increased use of renewable energy resources and more sophisticated loads, such as electric vehicles and smart appliances. In this paper, an automatic software framework is described which can be used for load forecasting in smart communities. A time-varying clustering-based Markov chain approach is used to predict the energy consumption of residential buildings in a smart community. The training data is based on 1-minute meter data of occupied homes over one month. The data points are first clustered based on the energy consumption and the time of the day. Then, the original data is converted using the Centroids of the clusters. A time-varying Markov chain is subsequently trained to model the energy consumption behavior of residents for each home using the transformed data. The trained model is shown to successfully predict load in 5-minute intervals over a 24 hours period.

Zandi, Helia↗

On the Robustness of Network Community Structure Under Addition of Edges

Communities represent important functional modules in networked systems. A key goal in preserving such communities is understanding their robustness under perturbations. Previous research has studied the impact of node removals and edge removals on the community structure. However, the impact of edge additions on the robustness of the community structure is relatively unknown. Edge additions or false positive edges may simulate measurement errors or external exceptional events that threaten the functionality of networked systems. Here, we study the impact of edge additions on the community structure using Lancichinetti-Fortunato-Radicchi (LFR) benchmark networks. We show that, for a fixed network size, the impact of edge additions is greater on networks with initially weak community structure than on networks with strongly clustered structures. In addition, we find that the perception of the impact is also dependent on the community detection algorithm used to uncover communities. In particular, we found that modularity-based methods such as Leiden and Louvain are less affected than information-theoretic and message passing-based methods such as Infomap and Label Propagation. Our results demonstrate that edge addition can (a) significantly impact the community structure of networks based on their initial conditions, and (b) the perception of the impact is dependent on the community detection algorithm used. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this methodology can inform the design of resilient networked systems under edge additions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Topology-Informed Design Rules for Deconstructable Thermoset Copolymer Networks

Existing models of thermoset deconstruction facilitated by incorporating cleavable comonomers rely on a mean-field reverse gel point paradigm, which predicts network dissolution once cleavable bonds reach a critical stoichiometric threshold, but does not account for where those bonds reside within the network architecture. Using reactive coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations coupled with graph-theoretic analysis, we extend this stoichiometric picture to show that deconstructability is governed by the curing-imprinted network topology rather than stoichiometry alone. This topological organization is hierarchical: at the local scale, the elastic effectiveness of cross-link junctions determines which cross-links constitute the load-bearing scaffold; at the mesoscale, the cross-linking rate kinetically templates that scaffold into topologically modular communities─densely cross-linked clusters connected by sparse bridging strands that sustain network connectivity. Using betweenness centrality to identify nodes that disproportionately lie on intercommunity shortest paths, we demonstrate that effective deconstruction of the network into macromolecular fragments requires cleavable comonomers to intercept these high-centrality bridging strands. We further find that under uniform, disassortative comonomer incorporation, this topological requirement provides a mechanistic basis for extending the reverse gel point to incorporate network topology. We also show that modularity imposes a fundamental limit on fragment uniformity that persists even when the centrality requirement is met. Finally, we demonstrate that chain stiffness provides a nearly independent lever to suppress mechanically redundant cross-links and raise the glass transition temperature without significantly altering the deconstruction outcome. Together, these findings reframe the thermoset design space around network topology and provide actionable guidelines for engineering thermoset copolymers with predictable deconstructability and targeted thermomechanical performance.

coarse-grained molecular dynamics↗

Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally, with >365,000 cases in California as of 17 July 2020. We investigated the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California from late January to mid-March 2020, using samples from 36 patients spanning nine counties and the Grand Princess cruise ship. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the cryptic introduction of at least seven different SARS-CoV-2 lineages into California, including epidemic WA1 strains associated with Washington state, with lack of a predominant lineage and limited transmission among communities. Lineages associated with outbreak clusters in two counties were defined by a single base substitution in the viral genome. These findings support contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in California and other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An overview of the operation architectures and energy management system for multiple microgrid clusters

The emerging novel energy infrastructures, such as energy communities, smart building-based microgrids, electric vehicles enabled mobile energy storage units raise the requirements for a more interconnective and interoperable energy system. It leads to a transition from simple and isolated microgrids to relatively large-scale and complex interconnected microgrid systems named multi-microgrid clusters. In order to efficiently, optimally, and flexibly control multi-microgrid clusters, cross-disciplinary technologies such as power electronics, control theory, optimization algorithms, information and communication technologies, cyber-physical, and big-data analysis are needed. This paper introduces an overview of the relevant aspects for multi-microgrids, including the outstanding features, architectures, typical applications, existing control mechanisms, as well as the challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tetranucleotide frequencies differentiate genomic boundaries and metabolic strategies across environmental microbiomes

Microbiomes are constrained by physicochemical conditions, nutrient regimes, and community interactions across diverse environments, yet genomic signatures of this adaptation remain unclear. Metagenome sequencing is a powerful technique to analyze genomic content in the context of natural environments, establishing concepts of microbial ecological trends. Here, we developed a data discovery tool-a tetranucleotide-informed metagenome stability diagram-that is publicly available in the integrated microbial genomes and microbiomes (IMG/M) platform for metagenome ecosystem analyses. We analyzed the tetranucleotide frequencies from quality-filtered and unassembled sequence data of over 12,000 metagenomes to assess ecosystem-specific microbial community composition and function. We found that tetranucleotide frequencies can differentiate communities across various natural environments and that specific functional and metabolic trends can be observed in this structuring. Our tool places metagenomes sampled from diverse environments into clusters and along gradients of tetranucleotide frequency similarity, suggesting microbiome community compositions specific to gradient conditions. Within the resulting metagenome clusters, we identify protein-coding gene identifiers that are most differentiated between ecosystem classifications. We plan for annual updates to the metagenome stability diagram in IMG/M with new data, allowing for refinement of the ecosystem classifications delineated here. This framework has the potential to inform future studies on microbiome engineering, bioremediation, and the prediction of microbial community responses to environmental change. IMPORTANCE: Microbes adapt to diverse environments influenced by factors like temperature, acidity, and nutrient availability. We developed a new tool to analyze and visualize the genetic makeup of over 12,000 microbial communities, revealing patterns linked to specific functions and metabolic processes. This tool groups similar microbial communities and identifies characteristic genes within environments. By continually updating this tool, we aim to advance our understanding of microbial ecology, enabling applications like microbial engineering, bioremediation, and predicting responses to environmental change.

Kellom, Matthew↗

Scalable edge clustering of dynamic graphs via weighted line graphs

Timestamped relational datasets consisting of records (or connections) between pairs of entities are ubiquitous in network science. For applications like peer-to-peer communication, email, various social network interactions, and computer network security, it is useful to organize these records into groups based on how and when they are occurring. Weighted line graphs offer a natural way to model how records are related in such datasets but for large real-world graph topologies, building and utilizing the line graph is prohibitively expensive. Here, we present the framework to cluster the edges of a dynamic graph via the associated line graph that contains two major contributions. The first is a method to work with the line graph implicitly and the second is a distributed scale implementation of an agglomerative hierarchical graph clustering algorithm. We outline a novel hierarchical dynamic graph edge clustering approach that efficiently breaks massive relational datasets into small sets of edges containing events at various timescales. This is in stark contrast to traditional graph clustering algorithms that prioritize highly connected (clique-like) community structures. Our approach relies on constructing a sufficient subgraph of a weighted line graph and applying a hierarchical agglomerative clustering. This approach is related to scalable techniques from spatial clustering, nonlinear-dimension reduction, topological data analysis, and draws particular inspiration from HDBSCAN. As an edge clustering, this method yields an overlapping node clustering. Our algorithm is parallelizable and we demonstrate efficient clustering of a billion-scale, real-world dynamic graph into small edge sets that correlate in topology and time. The entire clustering process for a graph with tens of billions of edges takes just a few minutes of run time on 256 nodes of a distributed compute environment. We argue how the output of the edge clustering is useful for a multitude of data visualization and powerful machine learning tasks, both involving the original massive dynamic graph data and metadata associated with the nodes and edges. Finally, we describe how this approach can be extended to dynamic hypergraphs and dynamic graphs/hypergraphs with unstructured data living on vertices and edges.

Data Analysis↗

Geospatial analysis of preterm and small-for-gestational age births in Washington D.C.

Background: This study is based on the recognition that adverse pregnancy outcomes significantly affect maternal and infant health, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. These outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of individual-level factors—like maternal age and education—and community-level influences, including socio-economic status and access to healthcare. Understanding these determinants is crucial for developing effective public health strategies, especially for marginalized populations, by identifying high-risk areas and informing targeted interventions that address both individual and structural barriers. Methods: We utilized geospatial analysis to explore the association between individual- and community-level factors and adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically preterm birth (PTB) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birthweight in Washington, D.C. We used Empirical Bayes smoothing methods to calculate rates of adverse birth outcomes from 2010 to 2018 at the U.S. Census tract–level. Spatial scan statistics were used to investigate if adverse birth outcomes clustered in specific areas. ANOVA tests were conducted for individual- and community-level factors within identified clusters. Results: Spatial analysis identified significant high-risk clusters for PTB and SGA infants primarily in southeastern Washington, D.C., particularly in Wards 7 and 8. Individuals residing within these clusters experienced a 47% increased risk of PTB (RR = 1.467) and a 56% increased risk of SGA (RR = 1.560) compared to those outside clusters. Space–time analysis revealed temporal variation, with PTB clusters persisting from 2011 to 2014 and SGA clusters extending through 2017. Compared to low-risk clusters, high-risk clusters had younger birthing individuals (mean age ~26.5 vs. ~33 years), lower maternal college degree attainment (~20% vs. ~80%), higher rates of late or no prenatal care (~16% vs. 11%), and increased prevalence of smoking and hypertension (all P < 0.001). Community-level indicators showed lower median household incomes ($\$40,000$ vs. ~$\$105,000$), greater poverty (~16% vs. ~7% below $\$10,000$/year), higher public assistance use (~32% vs. ~5%), and reduced healthcare access (greater distances to emergency and specialty care) in high-risk areas (all P < 0.001). Neighborhood deprivation indices were significantly elevated, commutes were longer, and population density was lower in these clusters. These findings highlight that adverse birth outcomes cluster in neighborhoods with pronounced socioeconomic and health disparities. Conclusion: High-risk birth clusters highlight intertwined factors: individual, socio-economic, and geographic. Addressing these requires comprehensive interventions focusing on social and structural determinants of health.

Birth outcomes↗

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Long-read metagenomics of soil communities reveals phylum-specific secondary metabolite dynamics

Abstract Microbial biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) encoding secondary metabolites are thought to impact a plethora of biologically mediated environmental processes, yet their discovery and functional characterization in natural microbiomes remains challenging. Here we describe deep long-read sequencing and assembly of metagenomes from biological soil crusts, a group of soil communities that are rich in BGCs. Taking advantage of the unusually long assemblies produced by this approach, we recovered nearly 3,000 BGCs for analysis, including 712 full-length BGCs. Functional exploration through metatranscriptome analysis of a 3-day wetting experiment uncovered phylum-specific BGC expression upon activation from dormancy, elucidating distinct roles and complex phylogenetic and temporal dynamics in wetting processes. For example, a pronounced increase in BGC transcription occurs at night primarily in cyanobacteria, implicating BGCs in nutrient scavenging roles and niche competition. Taken together, our results demonstrate that long-read metagenomic sequencing combined with metatranscriptomic analysis provides a direct view into the functional dynamics of BGCs in environmental processes and suggests a central role of secondary metabolites in maintaining phylogenetically conserved niches within biocrusts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Simultaneous global and local clustering in multiplex networks with covariate information

Understanding both global and layer-specific group structures is useful for uncovering complex patterns in networks with multiple interaction types. In this work, we introduce a new model, the hierarchical multiplex stochastic blockmodel, which simultaneously detects communities within individual layers of a multiplex network while inferring a global node clustering across the layers. A stochastic blockmodel is assumed in each layer, with probabilities of layer-level group memberships determined by a node’s global group assignment. Our model uses a Bayesian framework, employing a probit stick-breaking process to construct node-specific mixing proportions over a set of shared Griffiths–Engen–McCloseky distributions. These proportions determine layer-level community assignment, allowing for an unknown and varying number of groups across layers, while incorporating nodal covariate information to inform the global clustering. We propose a scalable variational inference procedure with parallelisable updates for application to large networks. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate our model’s ability to accurately recover both global and layer-level clusters in complicated settings, and applications to real data showcase the model’s effectiveness in uncovering interesting latent network structure.

community detection↗

Triple Excitations in Green’s Function Coupled Cluster Solver for Studies of Strongly Correlated Systems in the Framework of Self-Energy Embedding Theory

Embedding theories became important approaches used for accurate calculations of both molecules and solids. In these theories, a small chosen subset of orbitals is treated with an accurate method, called an impurity solver, capable of describing higher correlation effects. Ideally, such a chosen fragment should contain multiple orbitals responsible for the chemical and physical behavior of the compound. Handling a large number of chosen orbitals presents a very significant challenge for the current generation of solvers used in the physics and chemistry community. Here, we develop a Green’s function coupled cluster singles doubles and triples (GFCCSDT) solver that can be used for a quantitative description in both molecules and solids. This solver allows us to treat orbital spaces that are inaccessible to other accurate solvers. At the same time, GFCCSDT maintains high accuracy of the resulting self-energy. Moreover, in conjunction with the GFCCSD solver, it allows us to test the systematic convergence of computational studies. Developing the CC family of solvers paves the road to fully systematic Green’s function embedding calculations in solids. In this paper, we focus on the investigation of GFCCSDT self-energies for a strongly correlated problem of SrMnO 3 solid. Subsequently, we apply this solver to solid MnO showing that an approximate variant of GFCCSDT is capable of yielding a high accuracy orbital resolved spectral function.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Developing energy flexibility in clusters of buildings: A critical analysis of barriers from planning to operation

This paper examines building energy flexibility at an aggregated level and addresses the main barriers and research gaps for the development of this resource across three design and development phases: market and policy, early planning and design, and operation. We review methodologies and tools and discuss barriers, challenges, and opportunities, incorporating policy, economic, technical, professional, and social perspectives. Although various legal and regulatory frameworks exist to foster the development of energy flexibility for small buildings, financing mechanisms are limited with a significant number of perceived risks undermining private investment. For the early planning and design phase, planners and designers lack appropriate tools and face interoperability challenges, which often results in insufficient consideration of demand response programs. The review of the operational phase highlighted the socio-technical challenges related to both the complexity of deployment and communication, as well as privacy and acceptability issues. Finally, the paper proposes a number of targeted research directions to address challenges and promote greater energy flexibility deployments, including capturing building demand side dynamics, improving baseline estimations and developing seamless connectivity between buildings and districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The ecological assembly of bacterial communities in Antarctic wetlands varies across levels of phylogenetic resolution

Summary As functional traits are conserved at different phylogenetic depths, the ability to detect community assembly processes can be conditional on the phylogenetic resolution; yet most previous work quantifying their influence has focused on a single level of phylogenetic resolution. Here, we have studied the ecological assembly of bacterial communities from an Antarctic wetland complex, applying null models across different levels of phylogenetic resolution (i.e. clustering ASVs into OTUs with decreasing sequence identity thresholds). We found that the relative influence of the community assembly processes varies with phylogenetic resolution. More specifically, selection processes seem to impose stronger influence at finer (100% sequence similarity ASV) than at coarser (99%–97% sequence similarity OTUs) resolution. We identified environmental features related with the ecological processes and propose a conceptual model for the bacterial community assembly in this Antarctic ecosystem. Briefly, eco‐evolutionary processes appear to be leading to different but very closely related ASVs in lotic, lentic and terrestrial environments. In all, this study shows that assessing community assembly processes at different phylogenetic resolutions is key to improve our understanding of microbial ecology. More importantly, a failure to detect selection processes at coarser phylogenetic resolution does not imply the absence of such processes at finer resolutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A clustering-based approach to ocean model–data comparison around Antarctica

The Antarctic Continental Shelf seas (ACSS) are a critical, rapidly changing element of the Earth system. Analyses of global-scale general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including those available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6), can help reveal the origins of observed changes and predict the future evolution of the ACSS. However, an evaluation of ACSS hydrography in GCMs is vital: previous CMIP ensembles exhibit substantial mean-state biases (reflecting, for example, misplaced water masses) with a wide inter-model spread. Because the ACSS are also a sparely sampled region, grid-point-based model assessments are of limited value. Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of clustering tools for identifying hydrographic regimes that are common to different source fields (model or data), while allowing for biases in other metrics (e.g., water mass core properties) and shifts in region boundaries. We apply K-means clustering to hydrographic metrics based on the stratification from one GCM (Community Earth System Model version 2; CESM2) and one observation-based product (World Ocean Atlas 2018; WOA), focusing on the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Ross seas. When applied to WOA temperature and salinity profiles, clustering identifies “primary” and “mixed” regimes that have physically interpretable bases. For example, meltwater-freshened coastal currents in the Amundsen Sea and a region of high-salinity shelf water formation in the southwestern Ross Sea emerge naturally from the algorithm. Both regions also exhibit clearly differentiated inner- and outer-shelf regimes. The same analysis applied to CESM2 demonstrates that, although mean-state model biases in water mass T–S characteristics can be substantial, using a clustering approach highlights that the relative differences between regimes and the locations where each regime dominates are well represented in the model. CESM2 is generally fresher and warmer than WOA and has a limited fresh-water-enriched coastal regimes. Given the sparsity of observations of the ACSS, this technique is a promising tool for the evaluation of a larger model ensemble (e.g., CMIP6) on a circum-Antarctic basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland↗

The S-PLUS Fornax Project (S+FP): A first 12-band glimpse of the Fornax galaxy cluster

ABSTRACT The Fornax galaxy cluster is the richest nearby (D ∼ 20 Mpc) galaxy association in the southern sky. As such, it provides a wealth of opportunities to elucidate on the processes where environment holds a key role in transforming galaxies. Although it has been the focus of many studies, Fornax has never been explored with contiguous homogeneous wide-field imaging in 12 photometric narrow and broad bands like those provided by the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS). In this paper, we present the S-PLUS Fornax Project (S+FP) that aims to comprehensively analyse the galaxy content of the Fornax cluster using S-PLUS. Our data set consists of 106 S-PLUS wide-field frames (FoV∼1.4 × 1.4 deg2) observed in five Sloan Digital Sky Survey-like ugriz broad bands and seven narrow bands covering specific spectroscopic features like [O ii], Ca ii H+K, Hδ, G band, Mg b triplet, Hα, and the Ca ii triplet. Based on S-PLUS specific automated photometry, aimed at correctly detecting Fornax galaxies and globular clusters in S-PLUS images, our data set provides the community with catalogues containing homogeneous 12-band photometry for ∼3 × 106 resolved and unresolved objects within a region extending over ∼208 deg2 (∼5 Rvir in RA) around Fornax’ central galaxy, NGC 1399. We further explore the eagle and IllustrisTNG cosmological simulations to identify 45 Fornax-like clusters and generate mock images on all 12 S-PLUS bands of these structures down to galaxies with M⋆ ≥ 108 M⊙. The S+FP data set we put forward in this first paper of a series will enable a variety of studies some of which are briefly presented.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Igor

SAND2023-05551O Igor, an open-source software, manages large clusters of users in a high-performance computing community. The systems allows users to choose an operating system and reserve and request hosts. The administrative side sets up and executes requests from users while simultaneously giving them tools to manage and enforce reservation policies and user access to the hosts. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Bagwell, Allen↗