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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical relationships across epigenomes using large-scale hierarchical clustering

Recent advances in genomics and sequencing platforms have revolutionized our ability to create immense data sets, particularly for studying epigenetic regulation of gene expression. However, the avalanche of epigenomic data is difficult to parse for biological interpretation given nonlinear complex patterns and relationships. This attractive challenge in epigenomic data lends itself to machine learning for discerning infectivity and susceptibility. In this study, we explore over 3000 epigenomes of uninfected individuals and provide a framework to characterize the relationships among epigenetic modifiers, their modifiers, genetic loci, and specific immune cell types across all chromosomes using hierarchical clustering. Hierarchical clustering of epigenomic data revealed consistent epigenetic patterns across chromosomes, demonstrating that variation due to epigenetic modifiers is greater than variation between cell types. Gene Ontology and KEGG pathway analyses indicated significant enrichment of genes involved in chromatin remodeling, mRNA splicing, immune responses, and the regulation of microRNAs and snoRNAs. Epigenetic modifiers frequently formed biologically relevant clusters, including the cohesin complex, RNA Polymerase II transcription factors, and PRC2 complex members. These clustering behaviors remained consistent across all chromosomes, supported by entropy analysis and high Adjusted Rand Index scores, indicating robust cross-chromosomal similarity. Co-occurrence analysis further revealed specific sets of modifiers that consistently appeared together within clusters, reflecting shared biological functions and interactions. Validation using another dataset confirmed the reproducibility of these clustering patterns and modifier co-occurrence relationships, underscoring the reliability and generalizability of the methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2016

Image Correlation Pattern Optimization for Micro-Scale In-Situ Strain Measurements

The accuracy and precision of digital image correlation (DIC) is a function of three primary ingredients: image acquisition, image analysis, and the subject of the image. Development of the first two (i.e. image acquisition techniques and image correlation algorithms) has led to widespread use of DIC; however, fewer developments have been focused on the third ingredient. Typically, subjects of DIC images are mechanical specimens with either a natural surface pattern or a pattern applied to the surface. Research in the area of DIC patterns has primarily been aimed at identifying which surface patterns are best suited for DIC, by comparing patterns to each other. Because the easiest and most widespread methods of applying patterns have a high degree of randomness associated with them (e.g., airbrush, spray paint, particle decoration, etc.), less effort has been spent on exact construction of ideal patterns. With the development of patterning techniques such as microstamping and lithography, patterns can be applied to a specimen pixel by pixel from a patterned image. In these cases, especially because the patterns are reused many times, an optimal pattern is sought such that error introduced into DIC from the pattern is minimized. DIC consists of tracking the motion of an array of nodes from a reference image to a deformed image. Every pixel in the images has an associated intensity (grayscale) value, with discretization depending on the bit depth of the image. Because individual pixel matching by intensity value yields a non-unique scale-dependent problem, subsets around each node are used for identification. A correlation criteria is used to find the best match of a particular subset of a reference image within a deformed image. The reader is referred to references for enumerations of typical correlation criteria. As illustrated by Schreier and Sutton and Lu and Cary systematic errors can be introduced by representing the underlying deformation with under-matched shape functions. An important implication, as discussed by Sutton et al., is that in the presence of highly localized deformations (e.g., crack fronts), error can be reduced by minimizing the subset size. In other words, smaller subsets allow the more accurate resolution of localized deformations. Contrarily, the choice of optimal subset size has been widely studied and a general consensus is that larger subsets with more information content are less prone to random error. Thus, an optimal subset size balances the systematic error from under matched deformations with random error from measurement noise. The alternative approach pursued in the current work is to choose a small subset size and optimize the information content within (i.e., optimizing an applied DIC pattern), rather than finding an optimal subset size. In the literature, many pattern quality metrics have been proposed, e.g., sum of square intensity gradient (SSSIG), mean subset fluctuation, gray level co-occurrence, autocorrelation-based metrics, and speckle-based metrics. The majority of these metrics were developed to quantify the quality of common pseudo-random patterns after they have been applied, and were not created with the intent of pattern generation. As such, it is found that none of the metrics examined in this study are fit to be the objective function of a pattern generation optimization. In some cases, such as with speckle-based metrics, application to pixel by pixel patterns is ill-conditioned and requires somewhat arbitrary extensions. In other cases, such as with the SSSIG, it is shown that trivial solutions exist for the optimum of the metric which are ill-suited for DIC (such as a checkerboard pattern). In the current work, a multi-metric optimization method is proposed whereby quality is viewed as a combination of individual quality metrics. Specifically, SSSIG and two auto-correlation metrics are used which have generally competitive objectives. Thus, each metric could be viewed as a constraint imposed upon the others, thereby precluding the achievement of their trivial solutions. In this way, optimization produces a pattern which balances the benefits of multiple quality metrics. The resulting pattern, along with randomly generated patterns, is subjected to numerical deformations and analyzed with DIC software. The optimal pattern is shown to outperform randomly generated patterns.

Bomarito, G. F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Relationship between circum-Arctic atmospheric wave patterns and large-scale wildfires in boreal summer

Long-term assessment of severe wildfires and associated air pollution and related climate patterns in and around the Arctic is essential for assessing healthy human life status. To examine the relationships, we analyzed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our investigation based on this state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data reveals that 13 out of the 20 months with the highest PM2.5 (corresponding to the highly elevated organic carbon in the particulate organic matter [POM] form) monthly mean mass concentration over the Arctic for 2003–2017 were all in summer (July and August), during which POM of ⩾0.5 μg/cu. m and PM2.5 were positively correlated. This correlation suggests that high PM2.5 in the Arctic is linked to large wildfire contributions and characterized by significant anticyclonic anomalies (i.e. clockwise atmospheric circulation) with anomalous surface warmth and drier conditions over Siberia and subpolar North America, in addition to Europe. A similar climate pattern was also identified through an independent regression analysis for the July and August mean data between the same atmospheric variables and the sign-reversed Scandinavian pattern index. We named this pattern of recent atmospheric circulation anomalies the circum-Arctic wave (CAW) pattern as a manifestation of eastward group-velocity propagation of stationary Rossby waves (i.e. large-scale atmospheric waves). The CAW induces concomitant development of warm anticyclonic anomalies over Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, as observed in late June 2019. Surprisingly, the extended regression analysis of the 1980–2017 period revealed that the CAW pattern was not prominent before 2003. Understanding the CAW pattern under future climate change and global warming would lead to better prediction of co-occurrences of European heatwaves and large-scale wildfires with air pollution over Siberia, Alaska, and Canada in and around the Arctic in summer.

wildfire↗
NASA NTRS1974

Use of feature extraction techniques for the texture and context information in ERTS imagery: Spectral and textural processing of ERTS imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. A procedure was developed to extract cross-band textural features from ERTS MSS imagery. Evolving from a single image texture extraction procedure which uses spatial dependence matrices to measure relative co-occurrence of nearest neighbor grey tones, the cross-band texture procedure uses the distribution of neighboring grey tone N-tuple differences to measure the spatial interrelationships, or co-occurrences, of the grey tone N-tuples present in a texture pattern. In both procedures, texture is characterized in such a way as to be invariant under linear grey tone transformations. However, the cross-band procedure complements the single image procedure by extracting texture information and spectral information contained in ERTS multi-images. Classification experiments show that when used alone, without spectral processing, the cross-band texture procedure extracts more information than the single image texture analysis. Results show an improvement in average correct classification from 86.2% to 88.8% for ERTS image no. 1021-16333 with the cross-band texture procedure. However, when used together with spectral features, the single image texture plus spectral features perform better than the cross-band texture plus spectral features, with an average correct classification of 93.8% and 91.6%, respectively.

Haralick, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Protist diversity and community complexity in the rhizosphere of switchgrass are dynamic as plants develop

Abstract Background Despite their widespread distribution and ecological importance, protists remain one of the least understood components of the soil and rhizosphere microbiome. Knowledge of the roles that protists play in stimulating organic matter decomposition and shaping microbiome dynamics continues to grow, but there remains a need to understand the extent to which biological and environmental factors mediate protist community assembly and dynamics. We hypothesize that protists communities are filtered by the influence of plants on their rhizosphere biological and physicochemical environment, resulting in patterns of protist diversity and composition that mirror previously observed diversity and successional dynamics in rhizosphere bacterial communities. Results We analyzed protist communities associated with the rhizosphere and bulk soil of switchgrass (SG) plants ( Panicum virgatum ) at different phenological stages, grown in two marginal soils as part of a large-scale field experiment. Our results reveal that the diversity of protists is lower in rhizosphere than bulk soils, and that temporal variations depend on soil properties but are less pronounced in rhizosphere soil. Patterns of significantly prevalent protists groups in the rhizosphere suggest that most protists play varied ecological roles across plant growth stages and that some plant pathogenic protists and protists with omnivorous diets reoccur over time in the rhizosphere. We found that protist co-occurrence network dynamics are more complex in the rhizosphere compared to bulk soil. A phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis showed that protists’ community assembly in our study sites is mainly controlled by homogenous selection and dispersal limitation, with stronger selection in rhizosphere than bulk soil as SG grew and senesced. Conclusions We demonstrate that environmental filtering is a dominant determinant of overall protist community properties and that at the rhizosphere level, plant control on the physical and biological environment is a critical driver of protist community composition and dynamics. Since protists are key contributors to plant nutrient availability and bacterial community composition and abundance, mapping and understanding their patterns in rhizosphere soil is foundational to understanding the ecology of the root-microbe-soil system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cloud field classification based upon high spatial resolution textural features. I - Gray level co-occurrence matrix approach

Stratocumulus, cumulus, and cirrus clouds were identified on the basis of cloud textural features which were derived from a single high-resolution Landsat MSS NIR channel using a stepwise linear discriminant analysis. It is shown that, using this method, it is possible to distinguish high cirrus clouds from low clouds with high accuracy on the basis of spatial brightness patterns. The largest probability of misclassification is associated with confusion between the stratocumulus breakup regions and the fair-weather cumulus.

Welch, R. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal dynamics of core fungi in the switchgrass phyllosphere, and co-occurrence with leaf bacteria

Plant leaves harbor complex microbial communities that influence plant health and productivity. Nevertheless, a detailed understanding of phyllosphere community assembly and drivers is needed, particularly for phyllosphere fungi. Here, we investigated seasonal dynamics of epiphytic phyllosphere fungal communities in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), a focal bioenergy crop. We also leverage previously published data on switchgrass phyllosphere bacterial communities from the same experimental plants, allowing us to compare fungal and bacterial dynamics and explore inter-Domain network associations in the switchgrass phyllosphere. Overall, we found a strong impact of sampling date on fungal community composition, with multiple taxonomic levels exhibiting clear temporal patterns in relative abundance. In addition, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf dry matter content, plant height, and minimum daily air temperature explained significant variation in phyllosphere fungal communities, likely due to their correlation with sampling date. Finally, among the core taxa, fungal-bacterial network associations were much more common than bacteria-bacteria associations, suggesting the importance of inter-Domain phylogenetic diversity in microbiome assembly. Although our findings highlight the complexity of phyllosphere microbiome assembly, the clear temporal patterns in lineage-specific fungal abundances give promise to the potential for accurately predicting shifts in fungal phyllosphere communities throughout the growing season, a key research priority for sustainable agriculture.

16S rRNA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Functional Redundancy in Soil Microbial Community Based on Metagenomics Across the Globe

Understanding the contribution of soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes is critical for predicting terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks under changing climate. Our current understanding lacks a consistent strategy to formulate the linkage between microbial systems and ecosystem processes due to the presumption of functional redundancy in soil microbes. Here we present a global soil microbial metagenomic analysis to generalize patterns of microbial taxonomic compositions and functional potentials across climate and geochemical gradient. Our analyses show that soil microbial taxonomic composition varies widely in response to climate and soil physicochemical gradients, while microbial functional attributes based on metagenomic gene abundances are redundant. Among 17 climate zones, microbial taxonomic compositions were more distinct than functional potentials, as climate and edaphic properties showed more significant influence on microbial taxonomic compositions than on functional potentials. Microbial taxonomies formed a larger and more complex co-occurrence network with more module structures than functional potentials. Functional network was strongly inter-connected among different categories, whereas taxonomic network was more positively interactive in the same taxonomic groups. This study provides strong evidence to support the hypothesis of functional redundancy in soil microbes, as microbial taxonomic compositions vary to a larger extent than functional potentials based on metagenomic gene abundances in terrestrial ecosystems across the globe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Do Dominant Ants Affect Secondary Productivity, Behavior and Diversity in a Guild of Woodland Ants?

The degree to which competition by dominant species shapes ecological communities remains a largely unresolved debate. In ants, unimodal dominance–richness relationships are common and suggest that dominant species, when very abundant, competitively exclude non-dominant species. However, few studies have investigated the underlying mechanisms by which dominant ants might affect coexistence and the maintenance of species richness. In this study, we first examined the relationship between the richness of non-dominant ant species and the abundance of a dominant ant species, Formica subsericea, among forest ant assemblages in the eastern US. This relationship was hump-shaped or not significant depending on the inclusion or exclusion of an influential observation. Moreover, we found only limited evidence that F. subsericea negatively affects the productivity or behavior of non-dominant ant species. For example, at the colony-level, the size and productivity of colonies of non-dominant ant species were not different when they were in close proximity to dominant ant nests than when they were away and, in fact, was associated with increased productivity in one species. Additionally, the number of foraging workers of only one non-dominant ant species was lower at food sources near than far from dominant F. subsericea nests, while the number of foragers of other species was not negatively affected. However, foraging activity of the non-dominant ant species was greater at night when F. subsericea was inactive, suggesting a potential mechanism by which some non-dominant species avoid interactions with competitively superior species. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of how patterns of community structure arise requires linking processes from colonies to communities. Our study suggests the negative effects of dominant ant species on non-dominant species may be offset by mechanisms promoting coexistence.

Formicidae↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking crop traits to transcriptome differences in a progeny population of tetraploid potato

Background: Potato is the third most consumed crop in the world. Breeding for traits such as yield, product quality and pathogen resistance are main priorities. Identifying molecular signatures of these and other important traits is important in future breeding efforts. In this study, a progeny population from a cross between a breeding line, SW93–1015, and a cultivar, Désirée, was studied by trait analysis and RNA-seq in order to develop understanding of segregating traits at the molecular level and identify transcripts with expressional correlation to these traits. Transcript markers with predictive value for field performance applicable under controlled environments would be of great value for plant breeding.Results: A total of 34 progeny lines from SW93–1015 and Désirée were phenotyped for 17 different traits in a field in Nordic climate conditions and controlled climate settings. A master transcriptome was constructed with all 34 progeny lines and the parents through a de novo assembly of RNA-seq reads. Gene expression data obtained in a controlled environment from the 34 lines was correlated to traits by different similarity indices, including Pearson and Spearman, as well as DUO, which calculates the co-occurrence between high and low values for gene expression and trait. Our study linked transcripts to traits such as yield, growth rate, high laying tubers, late and tuber blight, tuber greening and early flowering. We found several transcripts associated to late blight resistance and transcripts encoding receptors were associated to Dickeya solani susceptibility. Transcript levels of a UBX-domain protein was negatively associated to yield and a GLABRA2 expression modulator was negatively associated to growth rate.Conclusion: In our study, we identify 100’s of transcripts, putatively linked based on expression with 17 traits of potato, representing both well-known and novel associations. This approach can be used to link the transcriptome to traits. We explore the possibility of associating the level of transcript expression from controlled, optimal environments to traits in a progeny population with different methods introducing the application of DUO for the first time on transcriptome data. We verify the expression pattern for five of the putative transcript markers in another progeny population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geographic patterns of genomic diversity and structure in the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its natural distribution

Abstract Geographic patterns of within-species genomic diversity are shaped by evolutionary processes, life history and historical and contemporary factors. New genomic approaches can be used to infer the influence of such factors on the current distribution of infraspecific lineages. In this study, we evaluated the genomic and morphological diversity as well as the genetic structure of the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its complex natural distribution in North America. We sampled extensively across the natural range of P. hallii in Mexico and the USA to generate double-digestion restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequence data for 423 individuals from 118 localities. We used these individuals to study the divergence between the two varieties of P. hallii, P. hallii var. filipes and P. hallii var. hallii as well as the genetic diversity and structure within these groups. We also examined the possibility of admixture in the geographically sympatric zone shared by both varieties, and assessed distribution shifts related with past climatic fluctuations. There is strong genetic and morphological divergence between the varieties and consistent genetic structure defining seven genetic clusters that follow major ecoregions across the range. South Texas constitutes a hotspot of genetic diversity with the co-occurrence of all genetic clusters and admixture between the two varieties. It is likely a recolonization and convergence point of populations that previously diverged in isolation during fragmentation events following glaciation periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-series metagenomics reveals changing protistan ecology of a temperate dimictic lake

Abstract Background Protists, single-celled eukaryotic organisms, are critical to food web ecology, contributing to primary productivity and connecting small bacteria and archaea to higher trophic levels. Lake Mendota is a large, eutrophic natural lake that is a Long-Term Ecological Research site and among the world’s best-studied freshwater systems. Metagenomic samples have been collected and shotgun sequenced from Lake Mendota for the last 20 years. Here, we analyze this comprehensive time series to infer changes to the structure and function of the protistan community and to hypothesize about their interactions with bacteria. Results Based on small subunit rRNA genes extracted from the metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes of microeukaryotes, we identify shifts in the eukaryotic phytoplankton community over time, which we predict to be a consequence of reduced zooplankton grazing pressures after the invasion of a invasive predator (the spiny water flea) to the lake. The metagenomic data also reveal the presence of the spiny water flea and the zebra mussel, a second invasive species to Lake Mendota, prior to their visual identification during routine monitoring. Furthermore, we use species co-occurrence and co-abundance analysis to connect the protistan community with bacterial taxa. Correlation analysis suggests that protists and bacteria may interact or respond similarly to environmental conditions. Cryptophytes declined in the second decade of the timeseries, while many alveolate groups (e.g., ciliates and dinoflagellates) and diatoms increased in abundance, changes that have implications for food web efficiency in Lake Mendota. Conclusions We demonstrate that metagenomic sequence-based community analysis can complement existing efforts to monitor protists in Lake Mendota based on microscopy-based count surveys. We observed patterns of seasonal abundance in microeukaryotes in Lake Mendota that corroborated expectations from other systems, including high abundance of cryptophytes in winter and diatoms in fall and spring, but with much higher resolution than previous surveys. Our study identified long-term changes in the abundance of eukaryotic microbes and provided context for the known establishment of an invasive species that catalyzes a trophic cascade involving protists. Our findings are important for decoding potential long-term consequences of human interventions, including invasive species introduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

ISCCP Cloud Properties Associated with Standard Cloud Types Identified in Individual Surface Observations

Individual surface weather observations from land stations and ships are compared with individual cloud retrievals of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Stage C1, for an 8-year period (1983-1991) to relate cloud optical thicknesses and cloud-top pressures obtained from satellite data to the standard cloud types reported in visual observations from the surface. Each surface report is matched to the corresponding ISCCP-C1 report for the time of observation for the 280x280-km grid-box containing that observation. Classes of the surface reports are identified in which a particular cloud type was reported present, either alone or in combination with other clouds. For each class, cloud amounts from both surface and C1 data, base heights from surface data, and the frequency-distributions of cloud-top pressure (p(sub c) and optical thickness (tau) from C1 data are averaged over 15-degree latitude zones, for land and ocean separately, for 3-month seasons. The frequency distribution of p(sub c) and tau is plotted for each of the surface-defined cloud types occurring both alone and with other clouds. The average cloud-top pressures within a grid-box do not always correspond well with values expected for a reported cloud type, particularly for the higher clouds Ci, Ac, and Cb. In many cases this is because the satellites also detect clouds within the grid-box that are outside the field of view of the surface observer. The highest average cloud tops are found for the most extensive cloud type, Ns, averaging 7 km globally and reaching 9 km in the ITCZ. Ns also has the greatest average retrieved optical thickness, tau approximately equal 20. Cumulonimbus clouds may actually attain far greater heights and depths, but do not fill the grid-box. The tau-p(sub c) distributions show features that distinguish the high, middle, and low clouds reported by the surface observers. However, the distribution patterns for the individual low cloud types (Cu, Sc, St) occurring alone overlap to such an extent that it is not possible to distinguish these cloud types from each other on the basis of tau-p(sub c) values alone. Other cloud types whose tau-p(sub c) distributions are indistinguishable are Cb, Ns, and thick As. However, the tau-p(sub c) distribution patterns for the different low cloud types are nevertheless distinguishable when all occurrences of a low cloud type are included, indicating that the different low types differ in their probabilities of co-occurrence with middle and high clouds.

Hahn, Carole J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗