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Large‐Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California

Abstract We analyze large‐scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k‐means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula‐based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture‐based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large‐scale meteorological patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three dimensional cluster analysis for atom probe tomography using Ripley’s K-function and machine learning

The size and structure of spatial molecular and atomic clustering can significantly impact material properties and is therefore important to accurately quantify. Ripley’s K-function (K(r)), a measure of spatial correlation, can be used to perform such quantification when the material system of interest can be represented as a marked point pattern. This work demonstrates how machine learning models based on K (r)-derived metrics can accurately estimate cluster size and intra-cluster density in simulated three dimensional (3D) point patterns containing spherical clusters of varying size; over 90% of model estimates for cluster size and intra-cluster density fall within 11% and 18% error of the true values, respectively. These K (r)-based size and density estimates are then applied to an experimental APT reconstruction to characterize MgZn clusters in a 7000 series aluminum alloy. Here we find that the estimates are more accurate, consistent, and robust to user interaction than estimates from the popular maximum separation algorithm. Using K (r) and machine learning to measure clustering is an accurate and repeatable way to quantify this important material attribute.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Discovering type I cis-AT polyketides through computational mass spectrometry and genome mining with Seq2PKS

Type 1 polyketides are a major class of natural products used as antiviral, antibiotic, antifungal, antiparasitic, immunosuppressive, and antitumor drugs. Analysis of public microbial genomes leads to the discovery of over sixty thousand type 1 polyketide gene clusters. However, the molecular products of only about a hundred of these clusters are characterized, leaving most metabolites unknown. Characterizing polyketides relies on bioactivity-guided purification, which is expensive and time-consuming. To address this, we present Seq2PKS, a machine learning algorithm that predicts chemical structures derived from Type 1 polyketide synthases. Seq2PKS predicts numerous putative structures for each gene cluster to enhance accuracy. The correct structure is identified using a variable mass spectral database search. Benchmarks show that Seq2PKS outperforms existing methods. Applying Seq2PKS to Actinobacteria datasets, we discover biosynthetic gene clusters for monazomycin, oasomycin A, and 2-aminobenzamide-actiphenol.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Predictions for the Detectability of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies and Outer-Halo Star Clusters with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

We predict the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to faint, resolved Milky Way satellite galaxies and outer-halo star clusters. We characterize the expected sensitivity using simulated LSST data from the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) accessed and analyzed with the Rubin Science Platform as part of the Rubin Early Science Program. We simulate resolved stellar populations of Milky Way satellite galaxies and outer-halo star clusters over a wide range of sizes, luminosities, and heliocentric distances, which are broadly consistent with expectations for the Milky Way satellite system. We inject simulated stars into the DC2 catalog with realistic photometric uncertainties and star/galaxy separation derived from the DC2 data itself. We assess the probability that each simulated system would be detected by LSST using a conventional isochrone matched-filter technique. We find that assuming perfect star/galaxy separation enables the detection of resolved stellar systems with $M_V$ = 0 mag and $r_{1/2}$ = 10 pc with >50% efficiency out to a heliocentric distance of ~250 kpc. Similar detection efficiency is possible with a simple star/galaxy separation criterion based on measured quantities, although the false positive rate is higher due to leakage of background galaxies into the stellar sample. When assuming perfect star/galaxy classification and a model for the galaxy-halo connection fit to current data, we predict that 89 +/- 20 Milky Way satellite galaxies will be detectable with a simple matched-filter algorithm applied to the LSST wide-fast-deep data set. Different assumptions about the performance of star/galaxy classification efficiency can decrease this estimate by ~7%-25%, which emphasizes the importance of high-quality star/galaxy separation for studies of the Milky Way satellite population with LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Clustering of electromagnetic showers and particle interactions with graph neural networks in liquid argon time projection chambers

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) are a class of detectors that produce high resolution images of charged particles within their sensitive volume. In these images, the clustering of distinct particles into superstructures is of central importance to the current and future neutrino physics program. Electromagnetic (EM) activity typically exhibits spatially detached fragments of varying morphology and orientation that are challenging to efficiently assemble using traditional algorithms. Similarly, particles that are spatially removed from each other in the detector may originate from a common interaction. Graph neural networks (GNNs) were developed in recent years to find correlations between objects embedded in an arbitrary space. The graph particle aggregator (GrapPA) first leverages GNNs to predict the adjacency matrix of EM shower fragments and to identify the origin of showers, i.e., primary fragments. On the PILArNet public LArTPC simulation dataset, the algorithm achieves a shower clustering accuracy characterized by a mean purity of 99.4%, a mean efficiency of 99.6% and a primary identification accuracy of 99.8%. It yields a relative shower energy uncertainty of (4.1 + 1.4 / $\sqrt{\text{E(GeV)})}$% and a shower direction uncertainty of (2.1/ $\sqrt{\text{E(GeV)})}$°. Finally, the optimized algorithm is then applied to the related task of clustering particle instances into interactions and yields a mean purity of 99.8% and a mean efficiency of 99.5% for an interaction density of $\mathcal{O}(1)$ m –3 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Two Young Planetary Systems around Field Stars with Ages between 20 and 320 Myr from TESS

Planets around young stars trace the early evolution of planetary systems. We report the discovery and validation of two planetary systems with ages ≲300 Myr from observations by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The 40--320 Myr old G star TOI-251 hosts a 2.74{sub −0.18}{sup +0.18} R{sub ⊕} mini-Neptune with a 4.94 day period. The 20--160 Myr old K star TOI-942 hosts a system of inflated Neptune-sized planets, with TOI-942b orbiting in a period of 4.32 days with a radius of 4.81{sub −0.20}{sup +0.20} R{sub ⊕} and TOI-942c orbiting in a period of 10.16 days with a radius of 5.79{sub −0.18}{sup +0.19} R{sub ⊕}. Though we cannot place either host star into a known stellar association or cluster, we can estimate their ages via their photometric and spectroscopic properties. Both stars exhibit significant photometric variability due to spot modulation, with measured rotation periods of ∼3.5 days. These stars also exhibit significant chromospheric activity, with age estimates from the chromospheric calcium emission lines and X-ray fluxes matching that estimated from gyrochronology. Both stars also exhibit significant lithium absorption, similar in equivalent width to well-characterized young cluster members. TESS has the potential to deliver a population of young planet-bearing field stars, contributing significantly to tracing the properties of planets as a function of their age.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Dense autoencoders, clustering techniques, and semi-supervised learning for HPGe $γ$-spectra

Classifying high-resolution gamma spectra by their isotopic content is an essential task in nuclear forensics and other applications. Traditional analysis methods are often time-intensive, but machine learning (ML) may help analysts quickly process many spectra. Such methods tend to rely on abundant, well-labeled data for training. Historical gamma data exists in various fields but is not uniformly useful for supervised ML due to inconsistent labeling. Here, to address some of these challenges, we present a method to classify and organize unlabeled data from high-purity germanium detectors using an autoencoding neural network (autoencoder). We trained dense autoencoders to compress gamma data into latent representations that enable efficient data characterization. By clustering the encoded spectra or lower-dimensional mappings of them, we identified and removed portions of over-abundant data categories, resulting in a more balanced dataset and improved autoencoder performance. This encoding and clustering pipeline also enabled the organization of spectra into self-consistent categories. Finally, we found that encoded representations showed potential as inputs for semi-supervised learning of nuclide identification (NID) labels, achieving an average F1 score of 0.85 ± 0.03 when mapping encodings to a set of 65 isotope labels.

Autoencoders↗

Resolving the Atomic Structure of Sequential Infiltration Synthesis Derived Inorganic Clusters

Sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS) is a route to the precision deposition of inorganic solids in analogy to atomic layer deposition but occurs within (vs upon) a soft material template. SIS has enabled exquisite nanoscale morphological complexity in various oxides through selective nucleation in block copolymers templates. However, the earliest stages of SIS growth remain unresolved, including the atomic structure of nuclei and the evolution of local coordination environments, before and after polymer template removal. We employed In K-edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure and atomic pair distribution function analysis of high-energy X-ray scattering to unravel (1) the structural evolution of InO x H y clusters inside a poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) host matrix and (2) the formation of porous In 2 O 3 solids (obtained after annealing) as a function of SIS cycle number. Early SIS cycles result in InO x H y cluster growth with high aspect ratio, followed by the formation of a three-dimensional network with additional SIS cycles. That the atomic structures of the InO x H y clusters can be modeled as multinuclear clusters with bonding patterns related to those in In 2 O 3 and In(OH) 3 crystal structures suggests that SIS may be an efficient route to 3D arrays of discrete-atom-number clusters. As a result, annealing the mixed inorganic/polymer films in air removes the PMMA template and consolidates the as-grown clusters into cubic In 2 O 3 nanocrystals with structural details that also depend on SIS cycle number.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning to Identify Geologic Factors Associated with Production in Geothermal Fields: A Case-Study Using 3D Geologic Data from Brady Geothermal Field and NMFk

In this paper, we present an analysis using unsupervised machine learning (ML) to identify the key geologic factors that contribute to the geothermal production in Brady geothermal field. Brady is a hydrothermal system in northwestern Nevada that supports both electricity production and direct use of hydrothermal fluids. Transmissive fuid-fow pathways are relatively rare in the subsurface, but are critical components of hydrothermal systems like Brady and many other types of fuid-fow systems in fractured rock. Here, we analyze geologic data with ML methods to unravel the local geologic controls on these pathways. The ML method, non-negative matrix factorization with k-means clustering (NMFk), is applied to a library of 14 3D geologic characteristics hypothesized to control hydrothermal circulation in the Brady geothermal field. Our results indicate that macro-scale faults and a local step-over in the fault system preferentially occur along production wells when compared to injection wells and non-productive wells. We infer that these are the key geologic characteristics that control the through-going hydrothermal transmission pathways at Brady. Our results demonstrate: (1) the specific geologic controls on the Brady hydrothermal system and (2) the efficacy of pairing ML techniques with 3D geologic characterization to enhance the understanding of subsurface processes. This submission includes the published journal article detailing this work, the published 3D geologic map of the Brady Geothermal Area used as a basis to develop structural and geological variables that are hypothesized to control or effect permeability or connectivity, 3D well data, along which geologic data were sampled for PCA analyses, and associated metadata file. This work was done using the GeoThermalCloud framework, which is part of SmartTensors (both are linked below).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Measurement of G-phase volume fraction and number density in duplex stainless steels using transmission electron microscopy

Duplex stainless steels (DSS) have a high toughness and strength due the presence of both austenitic and ferritic phases. These alloys have had limited use in power production applications due to thermal embrittlement caused by spinodal decomposition and development of G-phase precipitates in the ferrite. Lean grade DSS alloys (e.g., 2101, 2003) may offer improved thermal stability due to the reduction of Cr- and Ni-equivalent elements when compared to standard grade compositions (e.g., 2205, 2209). The abundance of the G-phase was measured in five duplex stainless steels, three wrought alloys (2101, 2003, 2205) and their matching filler metals (2101-w, 2209-w), after aging at 427 °C for 1000 h and 10,000 h. The G-phase volume fraction, number density, size, and precipitate spacing were found using quantitative analysis of transmission electron microscopy dark field images and the composition of G-phase precipitates on other clusters were characterized with atom probe tomography (APT). In the welded alloys, the G-phase was found to develop rapidly, relative to the wrought material. A positive correlation was found between the nickel equivalent composition of the alloy and the G-phase volume fraction. The alloys 2205, 2209, and 2101-w, which are higher in Cr and Ni, all showed significant G-phase precipitation, further strengthening the hypothesis that lean grade DSS alloys are more thermally stable against precipitation in the ferrite. Electron diffraction showed a secondary phase present in the 2101 wrought alloy at 10,000 h, but it was not crystallographically consistent with the G-phase; APT showed the presence of nanoclusters rich in both nickel and copper for this alloy. In conclusion, no secondary phases or clusters were found in 2003 after 10,000 h of aging, so it may be a candidate alloy for applications that require long-life times at high operating temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Shielded magnetic small-angle neutron scattering for characterization of radioactive samples

The development of a Pb-shielded fixture for the execution of a small-angle neutron scattering (SANS)-based workflow for interrogation of highly irradiated nuclear materials has been explored. The Pb shielding was specially designed to reduce the detected radioactivity from the specimen during SANS experiments, and the overall configuration is termed shielded magnetic SANS (SM-SANS). Two FeCrAl-based alloys, C35M and 125YF, were examined with the SM-SANS technique using a free-form size distribution locally monodisperse model in both the as-received and irradiated states. Quantitative values derived from the free-form size distribution were compared with atom probe tomography experiments. Microstructural and compositional parameters determined using the two characterization techniques were complements of each other. The results demonstrate that the SM-SANS technique is an effective means of characterizing nanoscale clustering in irradiated material systems and provides new avenues for investigating radioactive material microstructures.

FeCrAl↗

X-Ray Performance of Critical-angle Transmission Grating Prototypes for the Arcus Mission

Arcus is a proposed Explorer Class soft X-ray grating spectrometer. It aims to explore cosmic feedback by mapping hot gases within and between galaxies and galaxy clusters and characterizing jets and winds from supermassive black holes and to investigate the dynamics of protoplanetary disks and stellar accretion. Arcus features 12 m focal-length grazing-incidence silicon pore optics (SPO) developed for the Athena mission. Critical-angle transmission (CAT) gratings efficiently disperse high diffraction orders onto CCDs. We report new and improved X-ray performance results for Arcus-like CAT gratings, including a record resolving power for two coaligned CAT gratings. Multiple Arcus prototype grating facets were illuminated by an SPO at the PANTER facility. The facets consist of 32 × 32.5 mm 2 patterned silicon membranes, bonded to metal frames. The bonding angle is adjusted according to the measured average tilt angle of the grating bars in the membrane. Two simultaneously illuminated facets show a minor broadening of the Al-K α doublet in the 18th and 21st orders with the best-fit record effective resolving power of ${R}_{G}\approx {1.3}_{-0.5}^{+\infty }\times {10}^{4}$ (3σ), about three to four times the Arcus requirement. We measured the diffraction efficiency of quasi-fully illuminated gratings at O-K wavelengths in orders 4–7 in an Arcus-like configuration and compare results with synchrotron spot measurements. After corrections for geometrical effects and bremsstrahlung continuum, we find agreement between full and spot illumination at the two different facilities, as well as with the models used for Arcus effective area predictions. We find that these flight-like gratings meet the diffraction efficiency and greatly exceed the resolving power Arcus requires.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pushing the heterometal doping limit while preserving long-lived charge separation in a Ti-based MOF photocatalyst

Here, this study explores the nature, dynamics, and reactivity of the photo-induced charge separated excited state in a Fe 3+ -doped titanium-based metal organic framework (MOF), xFeMIL125-NH 2 , as a function of iron concentration. The MOF is synthesized with doping levels x = 0.5, 1 and 2 Fe node sites per octameric Ti-oxo cluster and characterized by powder x-ray diffraction, UV-vis diffuse reflectance, atomic absorption, and steady state Fe K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. For each doping level, time-resolved X-ray transient absorption spectroscopy studies confirm the electron trap site role of the Fe sites in the excited state. Time scan data reveal multiexponential decay kinetics for the charge recombination processes which extend into the microsecond range for all three concentrations. A series of dye photodegradation studies, based on the oxidative decomposition of Rhodamine B, demonstrates the reactivity of the charge separated excited state and the photocatalytic capacity of these MOF materials compared to traditional heterometal-doped semiconductor photocatalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Resonance-stabilized radical clustering bridges the gap between gaseous precursors and soot in the inception stage

Carbonaceous particles are widespread in combustion, atmospheric, extraterrestrial, and nanomaterials environments. Resonance-stabilized radicals (RSRs) are commonly identified in fuel combustion and pyrolysis processes and play an essential role in carbonaceous particle formation. Despite their importance, comprehensive experimental and mechanistic understanding of particle inception through RSR reactions is lacking. This work investigated particle size distribution, chemical composition, and thermal behavior of soot particles generated by the flow reactor pyrolysis reactions of typical RSRs, in particular, 1-indenyl, 1-methylnaphthyl, and 2-methylnaphthyl radicals, and by the pyrolysis of hydrocarbons with a variety of structures. Particle size distributions show soot particles with mobility diameters in an incipient-particle range of 1.3 to 1.6 nm. Laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry results suggest that soot products consist of much larger covalently bound clusters (CBCs) than those observed in the gas phase. Under our experimental conditions, the CBCs exhibit a phase transition for particles with calculated molecular diameters of around 1.5 nm. Evaporation experiments and thermogravimetric analysis of the soot products reveal distinct thermal characteristics for small and large CBCs. These results implicate CBCs as bridges between gas-phase species and soot particles. The present work provides a soot-inception mechanism called RSR clustering (RSRC) that is characterized by the reactive clustering of RSRs. The RSRC mechanism contrasts with conventional soot formation models that attribute soot inception primarily to the aggregation of large-size polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

carbonaceous particle↗

Tracer-field cross-correlations with k -nearest neighbour distributions

ABSTRACT In astronomy and cosmology significant effort is devoted to characterizing and understanding spatial cross-correlations between points – e.g galaxy positions, high energy neutrino arrival directions, X-ray and AGN sources, and continuous fields – e.g. weak lensing meiand Cosmic Microwave Background maps. Recently, we introduced the k-nearest neighbour (kNN) formalism to better characterize the clustering of discrete (point) data sets. Here, we extend it to the point – field cross-correlations analysis. It combines kNN measurements of the point data set with measurements of the field smoothed at many scales. The resulting statistics are sensitive to all orders in the joint clustering of the points and the field. We demonstrate that this approach, unlike the 2-pt cross-correlation, can measure the statistical dependence of two data sets even when there are no linear (Gaussian) correlations between them. We further demonstrate that this framework is far more effective than the two point function in detecting cross-correlations when the continuous field is contaminated by high levels of noise. For a particularly high level of noise, the cross-correlation between haloes and the underlying matter field in a cosmological simulation, between 10 h−1 Mpc and 30 h−1 Mpc, is detected at >5σ significance using the technique presented here, when the two-point cross-correlation significance is ∼1σ. Finally, we show that kNN cross-correlations of haloes and the matter field can be well modelled on quasi-linear scales using the Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) framework, with the same set of bias parameters as are used for 2-pt cross-correlations. The substantial improvement in the statistical power of detecting cross-correlations using this method makes it a promising tool for various cosmological applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Power Profile Monitoring and Tracking Evolution of System-Wide HPC Workloads

The power & energy demands of HPC machines have grown significantly. Modern exascale HPC systems require tens of megawatts of combined power for computing resources and cooling facilities at full capacity. The current energy trend is not sustainable for future HPC systems, and there is a need to work toward the energy efficiency aspect of HPC performance. Energy awareness of the HPC applications at the job level is essential for running an efficient HPC system. This work aims to develop a pipeline to provide a production-level system-wide overview of the HPC workloads' power profile while handling evolving workloads exhibiting new power trends. We developed an open-set classification model for HPC jobs based on the properties of power profiles to continuously provide a system-wide holistic view of recently completed jobs. The pipeline helps continuously monitor the job-level power usage pattern of HPC and enables us to capture the new trends in applications' power behavior. We employed a comprehensive set of techniques to generate job-level data, custom-designed feature extraction methods to extract critical features from jobs' power profiles, clustering techniques powered by generative modeling, and open-set classification for identifying job profiles into known classes or an unknown set. With extensive evaluations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of each component in our pipeline. We provide an analysis of the resulting clusters that characterize the power profile landscape of the Summit supercomputer from more than 60K jobs executed in a year. The open-set classification classifies the known data sets into known classes with high accuracy and identifies unknown data noints with over 85% accuracy.

Karimi, Ahmad Maroof↗

CCAT-prime: Designs and status of the first light 280 GHz MKID array and mod-cam receiver

The CCAT-prime project's first light array will be deployed in Mod-Cam, a single-module testbed and first light cryostat, on the Fred Young Submillimeter Telescope (FYST) in Chile's high Atacama desert in late 2022. FYST is a six-meter aperture telescope being built on Cerro Chajnantor at an elevation of 5600 meters to observe at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths. 1 Mod-Cam will pave the way for Prime-Cam, the primary first generation instrument, which will house up to seven instrument modules to simultaneously observe the sky and study a diverse set of science goals from monitoring protostars to probing distant galaxy clusters and characterizing the cosmic microwave background (CMB). At least one feedhorn-coupled array of microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs) centered on 280 GHz will be included in Mod-Cam at first light, with additional instrument modules to be deployed along with Prime-Cam in stages. The first 280 GHz detector array was fabricated by the Quantum Sensors Group at NIST in Boulder, CO and includes 3,456 polarization- sensitive MKIDs. Current mechanical designs allow for up to three hexagonal arrays to be placed in each single instrument module. We present details on this first light detector array, including mechanical designs and cold readout plans, as well as introducing Mod-Cam as both a testbed and predecessor to Prime-Cam.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗