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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong Sensitivity of Simulated Biomass Burning Aerosol Transport and Radiative Effects Over the South Atlantic to Carbonaceous Aerosol Aging and Particle Density

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) impacts climate through aerosol‐cloud‐radiation interactions, but models disagree on the sign and magnitude of BBA radiative effects. We quantify the sensitivity of BBA radiative effects and transport to three BBA‐relevant processes and properties: parameterized oxidative aging of organic aerosol (OA), a combined change to black carbon (BC) density and the method for calculating aerosol refractive index, and reduction in OA density. We evaluate Unified Model simulations against two aircraft campaigns from summer 2017 over the Southeast Atlantic. The model generally performs well, such that discrepancies between the observational data sets may sometimes limit the precision of the evaluation. Our newly developed aging parameterization reproduces observed OA:BC mass ratios well and allows modeled OA:BC to decrease with smoke age, but increases bias in aerosol extinction and changes the BBA radiative effect little (+0.12 W m -2 ). We calculate aerosol refractive index using either a volume‐weighted component average or the Maxwell‐Garnett (MG) mixing assumption, which represents BC as small inclusions in a host material. Compared to MG mixing, the volume‐weighted average refractive index and reduced BC density increase aerosol absorption, substantially increasing the total BBA radiative effect (+2.66 W m -2 ) and amount of BBA transported across the ocean through BC self‐lofting. Reducing OA density to better match literature values changes the total BBA radiative effect by −1.96 W m -2 . Changes to direct radiative effects exceed changes to cloud radiative effects. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of aerosol radiative effects and transport to these processes and properties, which we suggest could be improved in climate models.

Southeast Atlantic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding changes in cloud simulations from E3SM version 1 to version 2

Abstract. This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals, CLUBB); microphysical parameterization (MG2); and deep-convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regimes, where the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning done in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to an improved SWCRE and longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the SO. They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than CLUBB tuning and ZM tuning do. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) diagnostic tool as well as sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit future E3SM developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Changes in Cloud Simulations from E3SM Version 1 to Version 2

This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (CLUBB), microphysical parameterization (MG2), and deep convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds (Sc) and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus to cumulus transition regimes, where Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning made in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to improved SWCRE and Longwave Cloud Radiative Effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the Southern Ocean (SO). They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than do the CLUBB and ZM tunings. This study offers additional insights about clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the COSP diagnostic tool as well as through sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit the future E3SM developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Can Biomass Burning Aerosol Induced Surface Cooling Be Amplified Through Sea Surface Temperature‐Cloud Feedback Over the Southeast Atlantic?

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols exert a strong surface cooling effect over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) via aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The reduction of the sea surface temperature (SST) can trigger the SST-low cloud feedback. Whether this feedback can amplify the surface cooling effect is examined. The modeling results from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) demonstrate that counterintuitively the cloud radiative effect (CRE) caused by the BB aerosols is weaker if SST-low cloud feedback is considered compared to fixed-SST simulation (-2.99 W m -2 vs. -4.79 W m -2 ). This is caused by (a) stronger sea breeze due to larger sea-land temperature contrast causing less smoke transport over SEA and (b) less moisture supply from surface due to colder SST. Changes in SST also lead to counterclockwise rotation of ocean circulation anomalies. Consequently, the excess heat transport from the equator reverses the direction of SST-cloud feedback in this region.

0305↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying and attributing time step sensitivities in present-day climate simulations conducted with EAMv1

Abstract. This study assesses the relative importance of time integration error in present-day climate simulations conducted with the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) at 1∘ horizontal resolution. We show that a factor-of-6 reduction of time step size in all major parts of the model leads to significant changes in the long-term mean climate. Examples of changes in 10-year mean zonal averages include the following: up to 0.5 K of warming in the lower troposphere and cooling in the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere, 1 %–10 % decreases in relative humidity throughout the troposphere, and 10 %–20 % decreases in cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and decreases exceeding 20 % in the subtropical lower troposphere. In terms of the 10-year mean geographical distribution, systematic decreases of 20 %–50 % are seen in total cloud cover and cloud radiative effects in the subtropics. These changes imply that the reduction of temporal truncation errors leads to a notable although unsurprising degradation of agreement between the simulated and observed present-day climate; to regain optimal climate fidelity in the absence of those truncation errors, the model would require retuning. A coarse-grained attribution of the time step sensitivities is carried out by shortening time steps used in various components of EAM or by revising the numerical coupling between some processes. Our analysis leads to the finding that the marked decreases in the subtropical low-cloud fraction and total cloud radiative effect are caused not by the step size used for the collectively subcycled turbulence, shallow convection, and stratiform cloud macrophysics and microphysics parameterizations but rather by the step sizes used outside those subcycles. Further analysis suggests that the coupling frequency between the subcycles and the rest of EAM significantly affects the subtropical marine stratocumulus decks, while deep convection has significant impacts on trade cumulus. The step size of the cloud macrophysics and microphysics subcycle itself appears to have a primary impact on cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and also in the midlatitude near-surface layers. Impacts of step sizes used by the dynamical core and the radiation parameterization appear to be relatively small. These results provide useful clues for future studies aiming at understanding and addressing the root causes of sensitivities to time step sizes and process coupling frequencies in EAM. While this study focuses on EAMv1 and the conclusions are likely model-specific, the presented experimentation strategy has general value for weather and climate model development, as the methodology can help researchers identify and understand sources of time integration error in sophisticated multi-component models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Surface Radiation over the Southern Ocean: An Overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE, and SOCRATES

Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF–NCAR G-V aircraft flying north–south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. Furthermore, the combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinct roles of land cover in regulating spatial variabilities of temperature responses to radiative effects of aerosols and clouds

Surface temperature responses to radiative perturbations due to aerosols and clouds are complicated by the land surface properties. To disentangle these complexities, this study, from a terrestrial surface energy budget perspective, isolates the underlying biophysical processes from the instantaneous radiative effects of aerosols and clouds on surface temperature using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1.2.1. It is found that in comparison with the global heterogeneous distributions of instantaneous radiative perturbations at the surface induced by aerosols and clouds, the spatial variations of the corresponding surface temperature responses to aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) during the daytime and cloud radiative effects (CRE) during the nighttime are amplified. It is because of the consistent global distribution of the local surface climate sensitivity (a function of land cover properties such as surface roughness and Bowen ratio) with those of daytime DRE and nighttime CRE. By applying identical anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions over eight major past, present and projected future anthropogenic aerosol emitting regions (i.e. Brazil, China, East Africa, India, Indonesia, South Africa, United States and Western Europe), surface temperature responses to aerosol radiative cooling in the daytime and cloud radiative warming in the nighttime over these regions positively regulated by local surface climate sensitivities are prominent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of Suppressing Excessive Light Rain on Aerosol Radiative Effects and Health Risks

Global climate models (GCMs) have been used widely to study radiative forcing and health risks of aerosols. A recent study using two GCMs found that light rain plays a dominant role in controlling aerosol loading. However, “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is a longstanding bias in GCMs. It is unclear how much light rain affects aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and health risks from air pollution. Here, in this work, we show that, with the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 by introducing a stochastic deep convection scheme, the reduced frequency of light rain (1–20 mm d -1 ) results in changes of aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) of up to -0.5 ± 0.03 W/m 2 and aerosol cloud radiative effects (CRE) of up to -0.9 ± 0.03 W/m 2 . The total (CRE + DRE) radiative effects of light rain-mediated aerosol changes exceed the present-day anthropogenic forcing of aerosols relative to preindustrial levels from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5&6) models. However, the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum has little effect on anthropogenic aerosol forcing (defined as the radiative perturbation due to changes in aerosol concentrations between the industrial era and preindustrial levels). Due to increased exposure to fine particulates (PM 2.5 ), the estimated global total premature mortality is much higher than previously estimated, by 300,000 ± 60,000 deaths per year, and is more severe in populous regions such as India and China. The findings in this study highlight the need to understand uncertainties in radiative effects and health risks of aerosols due to simulation biases of precipitation in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near‐Cloud Aerosol Retrieval Using Machine Learning Techniques, and Implied Direct Radiative Effects

Abstract There is a lack of satellite‐based aerosol retrievals in the vicinity of low‐topped clouds, mainly because reflectance from aerosols is overwhelmed by three‐dimensional cloud radiative effects. To account for cloud radiative effects on reflectance observations, we develop a Convolutional Neural Network and retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) with 100–500 m horizontal resolution for all cloud‐free regions regardless of their distances to clouds. The retrieval uncertainty is 0.01 + 5%AOD, and the mean bias is approximately −2%. In an application to satellite observations, aerosol hygroscopic growth due to humidification near clouds enhances AOD by 100% in regions within 1 km of cloud edges. The humidification effect leads to an overall 55% increase in the clear‐sky aerosol direct radiative effect. Although this increase is based on a case study, it highlights the importance of aerosol retrievals in near‐cloud regions, and the need to incorporate the humidification effect in radiative forcing estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying albedo susceptibility biases in shallow clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Unexpected Oceanic Peak in Energy Input to the Atmosphere and Its Consequences for Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Monsoons have historically been understood to be caused by the low thermal inertia of land, allowing more energy from summer insolation to be transferred to the overlying atmosphere than over adjacent ocean. Here, we show that during boreal summer, the global maximum net energy input (NEI) to the atmosphere unexpectedly lies over the Indian Ocean, not over land. Observed radiative fluxes suggest that cloud‐radiative effects (CRE) almost double the NEI over ocean, shifting the NEI peak from land to ocean. Global climate model experiments with both land and interactive sea surface temperatures confirm that CRE create the oceanic NEI maximum. Interactions between CRE, NEI, circulation, and land‐sea contrast in surface heat capacity shift precipitation from Southeast to South Asia. CRE thus alter the global partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean and the spatial structure of Earth's strongest monsoon, in ways that can be understood through the NEI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a triple-moment ice-phase cloud microphysics scheme and its application to the Single Column Atmosphere Model

Parameterization of cloud microphysics is critical for accurate simulation of weather and climate, in which the characteristics of cloud particle spectrum inevitably further affect climate simulation by changing the cloud evolution and cloud radiation effects. The popular currently used double-moment cloud microphysics schemes in numerical models can predict the intercept (N 0 ) and slope (λ) parameters of cloud particle spectrum but cannot predict the spectral shape parameter (μ), which hinders accurate description of cloud physical processes in climate models. Therefore, in the present study, we built upon the ideas of previously developed triple-moment cloud microphysics scheme, considered radar reflectivity factor as the third predictor in addition to number and mass concentration, and introduced its related prediction equation to the Single Column Atmosphere Model Version 5.3 (SCAM5.3). Moreover, the relevant microphysical process formulas in the model were revised, and a triple-moment ice-cloud microphysics scheme was constructed to predict the μ of ice particle spectrum. Based on this model, a 29-day case of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program in the summer of 1997 (ARM97) was simulated, and the differences in cloud fraction and radiation simulations between the double- and triple-moment schemes were analysed. The μ of ice particle spectrum predicted by the triple-moment scheme mainly ranged from 0 to 4; the peak value was around 2, and at least 85% of the μ values were greater than the default 0. Therefore, the μ=0 setting in the double-moment scheme is unreasonable. Moreover, the developed triple-moment ice-cloud microphysics scheme yielded a narrower ice particle spectrum, which was closer to the observation results of previous studies, than the double-moment cloud microphysics scheme (e.g., height=233 hPa). Furthermore, compared with the double-moment scheme, the triple-moment scheme achieved closer simulations of the cloud fraction observations, particularly for ice clouds in the upper levels. Considering the close association between cloud fraction and radiation, the error with the triple-moment scheme was smaller than that with the double-moment scheme regardless of the shortwave (surface downward shortwave radiation, net downward shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, and net shortwave radiation at the surface) or longwave (surface downward longwave radiation and net longwave radiation at the surface) flux density. Finally, the improvement mechanism of the triple-moment scheme on cloud fraction and radiation simulations was explored. The major reason is that the triple-moment scheme weakens the autoconversion of ice crystal to form snow and enhances the growth process of ice crystal deposition, thereby increasing the mass concentration of ice crystals and ice cloud fraction. Overall, the developed triple-moment ice-cloud microphysics scheme can help improve the simulation ability of models for cloud-climate feedback and other processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cloudy-sky contributions to the direct aerosol effect

The radiative forcing of the aerosol–radiation interaction can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. Two sets of multi-model simulations within Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom), combined with observational methods, and the time evolution of aerosol emissions over the industrial era show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak. A mean of the simulations considered is 0.01±0.1 W m-2. Multivariate data analysis of results from AeroCom Phase II shows that many factors influence the strength of the cloudy-sky contribution to the forcing of the aerosol–radiation interaction. Overall, single-scattering albedo of anthropogenic aerosols and the interaction of aerosols with the short-wave cloud radiative effects are found to be important factors. A more dedicated focus on the contribution from the cloud-free and cloud-covered sky fraction, respectively, to the aerosol–radiation interaction will benefit the quantification of the radiative forcing and its uncertainty range.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets

Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.

Arctic clouds↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-Scale Meteorology Over the Western North Atlantic From 2003 to 2020

Here, a continuous decrease in aerosols over the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on a decadal timescale provides a long-term benchmark to evaluate how various natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO serves as a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds more variable than those in marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes established by the Gulf Stream and the semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find a reduction in low-cloud optical thickness, accompanied by fewer and larger cloud droplets, yet observe no significant changes in low-cloud fraction and liquid water path. Despite the reduction in low-cloud optical thickness together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the trends of surface shortwave irradiance, also known as surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially related to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO—Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high-level cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns of decadal meteorological variability introduce complexities in the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO, thereby complicating the isolation and examination of aerosol-cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗