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At least 37 records · Page 2

Impacts of Bulk Microphysics Scheme Structural Choices on Simulations of Rain Initiation Through Drop Coalescence

This study examines how different structural choices in bulk microphysics schemes impact the simulation of warm rain initiation. A single liquid category (SLC) approach prognosing up to four moments of a single drop size distribution (DSD) is compared to the traditional two-category, two-moment approach with separate DSDs for cloud and rain (four total prognostic variables). Different methods for calculating tendencies of the prognostic variables from drop collision-coalescence are also tested: a discretized numerical-integration approach, machine learning via neural networks, lookup tables, and traditional power law fits. Relative to simulations using a bin microphysics model, SLC gives smaller error overall than the two-category approach when numerical integration is used to calculate the collision-coalescence tendencies for both. Replacing the numerical integration with a pre-computed lookup table reduces computational cost with little loss of accuracy. However, using fitted power laws with SLC to represent the collision-coalescence tendencies substantially reduces accuracy and leads to an order of magnitude increase in error. It is also demonstrated that with SLC, reasonably accurate solutions are obtained using only three prognostic moments, while a two-moment SLC scheme leads to substantial error. Overall, both the choice of prognostic moments (e.g., SLC vs. two-category) and method to calculate the collision-coalescence tendencies are important to consider for minimizing errors in bulk schemes. SLC with a sufficiently detailed calculation of the collision-coalescence tendencies provides accurate solutions for a reasonable computational cost, providing a viable alternative to the traditional two-category, two-moment approach for bulk microphysics.

320 (cloud physics and chemistry)↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Contact Freezing of Water Droplets by Crystalline Organic Acids

The ability of water to freeze into ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds affects physical properties, including particle size, precipitation rates, and radiative properties. The presence of an insoluble particle at the surface of water droplets can promote ice nucleation at temperatures higher than that of pure water, even in the absence of a collision. However, contact freezing remains an underexplored mode of ice nucleation. Here, we present a study of atmospherically relevant organic acids and their role as effective ice-nucleating particles (INP) in contact mode using a Raman-microscope-equipped environmental chamber. We determined contact freezing temperatures induced by solid crystals of docosanol, adipic acid, cis-pinonic acid, fumaric acid, 4-hydroxybenzoic acid, palmitic acid, phthalic acid, sebacic acid, stearic acid, terephthalic acid, and vanillic acid. All solids except fumaric acid promoted contact freezing of water droplets at significantly higher temperatures than pure water in the chamber (−15.0 to −18.5 °C vs −21.3 °C). Physical and chemical properties were identified which correlate with greater effectiveness of INPs in the contact mode, including crystal lattice mismatch with ice, carbon number, and insolubility in water. In conclusion, we suggest that the presence of these organic solids in atmospheric aerosols may promote atmospheric ice nucleation at warm temperatures.

Clouds↗

A novel energy balance approach for a verifiable and accurate solution of radiation extinction in purely absorbing particle clouds

Here we consider the problem of radiation transport through purely absorbing particle clouds. The gold-standard solution of particle-resolved Monte Carlo ray-tracing method to this problem is computationally expensive and therefore solving the radiation transport equation (specifically, the Beer-Bouguer law (BB-law)) on a Eulerian mesh is often preferred. While the absorption coefficient in the real problem is infinite, the BB-law approximates it to be a finite number in the form of number density through a set of assumptions. For particle clouds that do not obey these assumptions, the BB-law predicts an incorrect exponential decay. Also, when the number density is computed using the nearest-neighbor approach, the BB-law solution diverges when the Eulerian mesh size becomes closer to or smaller than the particle size. This numerical divergence is due to the homogenization error. Although the filtering strategy for number density minimizes the homogenization error, it still converges to an incorrect exponential decay for particle clouds that break the BB-law constraints and the cost of the filtering is equivalent to that of the gold-standard solution. In this study, we develop a novel, highly accurate, verifiable and cost-effective solution to the radiation transport equation on a Eulerian domain using an energy balance approach where we derive an expression for the absorption coefficient as a function of particle and Eulerian mesh sizes. We apply our new method to Poisson and turbulent particle clouds that violate all the BB-law constraints and show that the solution is converging upon the mesh refinement, and eventually, we recover the same gold-standard solution for a much cheaper computational cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Statistical Framework for Evaluating Rain Microphysics in Model Simulations and Disdrometer Observations

Abstract Statistical analyses of a large disdrometer data set and a diverse set of model simulations for convection using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were conducted, with the mutual goal of providing insights into precipitation formation and microphysical processes. We demonstrate that a two‐moment bulk microphysical model successfully captures the dominant observed modes of variability in rainfall related to rainfall intensity and raindrop size distributions. The model reproduced the general distribution of observed precipitation groups (PGs) derived from Principal Component Analysis. The multi‐variable analysis also uncovered some shortcomings in the model as well as limitations of the disdrometer data. The model solutions were constrained in their predicted drop size distributions (DSDs) due to the fixed DSD parameters assumed in a two‐moment microphysics scheme. A case study from the Mid‐latitude Continental Clouds and Convection Experiment field project demonstrated how model results can be used to contextualize the disdrometer observations which are limited in sample size, spatial coherence, and detection of small drops and low drop concentrations. The case study also showed that the spatial patterns of the statistically derived PGs revealed by the model are consistent with the hypothesized microphysical processes that determine surface rain DSDs. This work demonstrates how leveraging the strengths of observations and models together can improve our understanding and representation of rain microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Amazon River‐Breeze Circulation Limits Detection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in Warm Clouds

Increased aerosol concentrations can brighten low-level clouds and extend their lifetimes, but aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) remain highly uncertain and difficult to quantify. We show that part of this uncertainty is caused by topographical influences on clouds, that is, those arising from land–water contrasts. This is demonstrated using satellite retrievals in regions with extensive river networks, such as the Amazon Basin. 15 years of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data show cloud formation over the Amazon River basin is suppressed by 26% with warm low clouds above the river exhibiting a 22% smaller droplet effective radius and 18% higher droplet concentration ($N_d$) compared to adjacent land clouds. Thus, clouds above the river may appear polluted but are actually influenced by river-breeze circulations driven by the thermal contrast between the river and the surrounding land. These responses are robust in both wet and dry seasons, and tests using an improved MODIS retrieval product show cloud differences are unlikely due to retrieval artifacts. In situ measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon) confirm that $N_d$ is elevated above rivers and are also higher when carbon monoxide concentrations are elevated near the large city of Manaus. Lagrangian airmass tracking over Manaus shows that regional-scale river-breeze circulations impact $N_d$ as much as the urban aerosol plume, complicating ACI attribution and highlighting the need to isolate land-surface effects to assess ACI in continental regions.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗

Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Prediction of Cloud Properties in Satellite-Derived Solar Data: Preprint

With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a vital public data asset. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) that explicitly considers the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on radiative transfer. High-quality physical and optical cloud properties derived from satellite imagery are perhaps the most important data input to the PSM, representing the greatest source of radiation attenuation and scattering. However, traditional methods for cloud property retrieval have their own limitations and are unable to accurately predict cloud properties outside of nominal conditions. We introduce a physics-guided neural network that can accurately predict cloud properties when traditional methods fail or are inaccurate. Using this framework, we show reductions in relative Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) up to 13 percentage points for timesteps that previously had missing or low-quality cloud property data. We expect that this methodology will be effective in improving the quality of cloud property and solar irradiance data in the NSRDB.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Prediction of Cloud Properties in Satellite-Derived Solar Data

With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a vital public data asset. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) that explicitly considers the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on radiative transfer. High-quality physical and optical cloud properties derived from satellite imagery are perhaps the most important data inputs to the PSM, representing the greatest source of radiation attenuation and scattering. However, traditional methods for cloud property retrieval have their own limitations and are unable to accurately predict cloud properties outside of nominal conditions. We introduce a physics-guided neural network that can accurately predict cloud properties when traditional methods fail or are inaccurate. Using this framework, we show reductions in relative Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) up to 13 percentage points for timesteps that previously had missing or low-quality cloud property data. We expect that this methodology will be effective in improving the quality of cloud property and solar irradiance data in the NSRDB.

cloud properties↗

Fractal dimension of optical cirrus in Stripe82

ABSTRACT The geometric characteristics of dust clouds provide important information on the physical processes that structure such clouds. One of such characteristics is the 2D fractal dimension D of a cloud projected on to the sky plane. In previous studies, which were mostly based on infrared (IR) data, the fractal dimension of individual clouds was found to be in a range from 1.1 to 1.7 with a preferred value of 1.2–1.4. In this work, we use data from Stripe82 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to measure the fractal dimension of the cirrus clouds. This is done here for the first time for optical data with significantly better resolution as compared to IR data. To determine the fractal dimension, the perimeter-area method is employed. We also consider IR (IRAS and Herschel) counterparts of the corresponding optical fields to compare the results between the optical and IR. We find that the averaged fractal dimension across all clouds in the optical is $\langle D \rangle =1.69^{+0.05}_{-0.05}$ which is significantly larger than the fractal dimension of its IR counterparts $\langle D\rangle =1.38^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$. We examine several reasons for this discrepancy (choice of masking and minimal contour level, image and angular resolution, etc.) and find that for approximately half of our fields the different angular resolution (point spread function) of the optical and IR data can explain the difference between the corresponding fractal dimensions. For the other half of the fields, the fractal dimensions of the IR and visual data remain inconsistent, which can be associated with physical properties of the clouds, but further physical simulations are required to prove it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unprecedented cloud resolution in a GPU-enabled full-physics atmospheric climate simulation on OLCF’s summit supercomputer

Clouds represent a key uncertainty in future climate projection. While explicit cloud resolution remains beyond our computational grasp for global climate, we can incorporate important cloud effects through a computational middle ground called the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), also known as Super Parameterization. This algorithmic approach embeds high-resolution Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) to represent moist convective processes within each grid column in a Global Climate Model (GCM). The MMF code requires no parallel data transfers and provides a self-contained target for acceleration. This study investigates the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model-MMF (E3SM-MMF) code on the OLCF Summit supercomputer at an unprecedented scale of simulation. Hundreds of kernels in the roughly 10K lines of code in the E3SM-MMF CRM were ported to GPUs with OpenACC directives. A high-resolution benchmark using 4600 nodes on Summit demonstrates the computational capability of the GPU-enabled E3SM-MMF code in a full physics climate simulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Machine Learning from Observations for Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Parameterizations and Analysis

Fusing learning from Earth observations from space and from the ground (e.g., ARM) with newly developed interpretable and generalizable physics-informed model structures to improve the parameterization of clouds and convection and advance the simulation, understanding and analysis of hydrological extreme events. This covers the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of In-Cloud Wet Removal in Simulating Aerosol Vertical Profiles and Cloud Radiative Forcing

Among the physical processes controlling aerosol vertical profiles, in-cloud wet removal is of utmost importance while its representation in global climate models (GCMs) is crude. In this study, we implement into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) a physically based aerosol wet removal parameterization scheme that explicitly treats aerosol activation, removal and resuspension. Evaluation against in-situ observations shows that the default scheme substantially overestimates the upper tropospheric black carbon (BC) and sea salt mass. Our physically based scheme reduces BC and sea salt mass by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, in better agreement with observations. Also, the new scheme slightly increases number of aerosol particles between 12 nm and 4.8 μm in diameter, thereby mitigating the aerosol number underestimation in the default scheme. Our new scheme reduces the overestimation of coarse-mode aerosol (0.5–4.8 μm) number. Overall, the aerosol property changes (mass decrease and number increase) reduce the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at low supersaturation (i.e., 0.02% and 0.1%), and increase CCN at high supersaturations (i.e., 0.5% and 1%). Consequently, the global annual mean cloud liquid water path increases by 1.89 g m -2 and the ice water path increases by 0.51 g m -2 . The global annual mean shortwave, longwave, and net cloud radiative forcing change by -1.06, 0.57, and -0.48 W m -2 , respectively. Further improvement is needed to reflect the real physics that the removal efficiencies for aerosol mass and number are disproportionate and to advect cloud-borne (activated) aerosols for a complete aerosol lifecycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-Level Liquid-Bearing Clouds Contribute to Seasonal Lower Atmosphere Stability and Surface Energy Forcing over a High-Mountain Watershed Environment

Measurements of atmospheric structure and surface energy budgets distributed along a high-altitude moun tain watershed environment near Crested Butte, Colorado, from two separate, but coordinated, field campaigns, Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) and Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH), are analyzed. This study identifies similarities and differences in how clouds influence the radiative budget over one snow-free summer season (2022) and two snow-covered seasons (2021/22; 2022/23) for this alpine location. A relationship between lower-tropospheric stability stratification and longwave radiative flux from the presence or absence of clouds is identified. When low clouds persisted, often with signatures of supercooled liquid in win ter, the lower troposphere experienced weaker stability, while radiatively clear skies that are less likely to be influenced by liquid droplets were associated with appreciably stronger lower-tropospheric stratification. Corresponding surface turbu lent heat fluxes partitioned differently based upon the cloud–stability stratification regime derived from early morning radiosounding profiles. Combined with the differences in the radiative budget largely resulting from dramatic seasonal dif ferences in surface albedo, the lower atmosphere stratification, surface energy budget, and near-surface thermodynamics are shown to be modified by the effective longwave radiative forcing of clouds. The diurnal evolution of thermodynamics and surface energy components varied depending on the early morning stratification state. Thus, the importance of quies cent versus synoptically active large-scale meteorology is hypothesized as a critical forcing for cloud properties and associ ated surface energy budget variations. The physical relationships between clouds, radiation, and stratification can provide a useful suite of metrics for process understanding and to evaluate numerical models in such an undersampled, highly com plex terrain environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗

Load‐Balancing Intense Physics Calculations to Embed Regionalized High‐Resolution Cloud Resolving Models in the E3SM and CESM Climate Models

Abstract We design a new strategy to load‐balance high‐intensity sub‐grid atmospheric physics calculations restricted to a small fraction of a global climate simulation's domain. We show why the current parallel load balancing infrastructure of Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Energy Exascale Earth Model (E3SM) cannot efficiently handle this scenario at large core counts. As an example, we study an unusual configuration of the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) that embeds a binary mixture of two separate cloud‐resolving model grid structures that is attractive for low cloud feedback studies. Less than a third of the planet uses high‐resolution (MMF‐HR; sub‐km horizontal grid spacing) relative to standard low‐resolution (MMF‐LR) cloud superparameterization elsewhere. To enable MMF runs with Multi‐Domain cloud resolving models (CRMs), our load balancing theory predicts the most efficient computational scale as a function of the high‐intensity work's relative overhead and its fractional coverage. The scheme successfully maximizes model throughput and minimizes model cost relative to precursor infrastructure, effectively by devoting the vast majority of the processor pool to operate on the few high‐intensity (and rate‐limiting) high‐resolution (HR) grid columns. Two examples prove the concept, showing that minor artifacts can be introduced near the HR/low‐resolution CRM grid transition boundary on idealized aquaplanets, but are minimal in operationally relevant real‐geography settings. As intended, within the high (low) resolution area, our Multi‐Domain CRM simulations exhibit cloud fraction and shortwave reflection convergent to standard baseline tests that use globally homogenous MMF‐LR and MMF‐HR. We suggest this approach can open up a range of creative multi‐resolution climate experiments without requiring unduly large allocations of computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗