Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “climate-change ecology”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Climate change drives reduced biocontrol of the invasive spongy moth

The effects of climate change on forest-defoliating insects are poorly understood, but could severely reduce forest productivity, biodiversity and timber production. For decades following its introduction in 1869, the spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar ) severely defoliated North American forests, but the introduction of the fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in 1989 suppressed spongy moth defoliation for 27 years. E. maimaiga , however, needs cool, moist conditions, whereas climate change is bringing hot, dry conditions to the range of the insect. Here, in this work, we use an empirically verified eco-climate model to project that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates, thereby increasing spongy moth defoliation. Recent rebounds in defoliation are consistent with our projections. Our work demonstrates that the effects of climate change on species interactions can have important consequences for natural ecosystems.

climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting responses of woody and grassland ecosystems to increased CO 2 as water supply varies

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO 2 enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO 2 experiments, we show that the eCO 2 enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems. During wetter years, CO 2 enhancement increases in woody ecosystems but declines in grass-dominated systems. Consistent with this difference, woody ecosystems can increase leaf area index in wetter years more effectively under eCO 2 than can grassland ecosystems. Overall, and across different precipitation regimes, woody systems had markedly stronger CO 2 enhancement (24%) than grasslands (13%). Finally, we developed an empirical relationship to quantify aboveground net primary productivity enhancement on the basis of changes in leaf area index, providing a new approach for evaluating eCO 2 impacts on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The age distribution of global soil carbon inferred from radiocarbon measurements

Soils contain more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. An increased flow of carbon from the atmosphere into soil pools could help mitigate anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and climate change. Yet we do not know how quickly soils might respond because the age distribution of soil carbon is uncertain. Here we used 789 radiocarbon (Δ 14 C) profiles, along with other geospatial information, to create globally gridded datasets of mineral soil Δ 14 C and mean age. We found that soil depth is a primary driver of Δ 14 C, whereas climate (for example, mean annual temperature) is a major control on the spatial pattern of Δ 14 C in surface soil. Integrated to a depth of 1m, global soil carbon has a mean age of 4,830 ± 1,730 yr, with older carbon in deeper layers and permafrost regions. In contrast, vertically resolved land models simulate Δ 14 C values that imply younger carbon ages and a more rapid carbon turnover. Overall, our data-derived estimates of older mean soil carbon age suggest that soils will accumulate less carbon than predicted by current Earth system models over the twenty-first century. Reconciling these models with the global distribution of soil radiocarbon will require a better representation of the mechanisms that control carbon persistence in soils.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduction of microbial diversity in grassland soil is driven by long-term climate warming

Anthropogenic climate change threatens ecosystem functioning. Soil biodiversity is essential for maintaining the health of terrestrial systems, but how climate change affects the richness and abundance of soil microbial communities remains unresolved. Here, we examined the effects of warming, altered precipitation and annual biomass removal on grassland soil bacterial, fungal and protistan communities over 7 years to determine how these representative climate changes impact microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We show that experimental warming and the concomitant reductions in soil moisture play a predominant role in shaping microbial biodiversity by decreasing the richness of bacteria (9.6%), fungi (14.5%) and protists (7.5%). Our results also show positive associations between microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functional processes, such as gross primary productivity and microbial biomass. We conclude that the detrimental effects of biodiversity loss might be more severe in a warmer world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO 2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by human activities each year, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO 2 . Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) experiments, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections. In this study we synthesized data from 108 eCO 2 experiments and found that the effect of eCO 2 on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO 2 , SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO 2 in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the end of the century

During recent summers, warm and dry conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires and potentially peat-fires across Alaska. Limitations in resolving the fine-scale distribution of peatlands and climate observations have constrained our ability to accurately predict peat-fire dynamics. Using a new high-resolution peatland map of Alaska, we evaluated the climate and environmental controls of past and future peat-fire activity. Ensemble machine learning models identified reduced soil moisture, higher temperatures, and evapotranspiration as key predictors of annual total burned peatland area (tenfold CV R 2 = 0.62, RMSE = 221.1 km 2 ). By the end of the twenty-first century, models forced with climate datasets from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 emission scenarios project a statewide doubling of burned peatlands (increasing 61–121%), with regional increases ranging from 25–165% in polar, 61–95% in boreal, and 102–106% in maritime ecoregions. These projections indicate that wildfires will progressively encroach further into organic-rich moist and wet peaty soils, potentially amplifying soil carbon release across Alaska.

climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multigenic resistance to Xylella fastidiosa in wild grapes ( Vitis sps.) and its implications within a changing climate

Xylella fastidiosa is a bacterium that infects crops like grapevines, coffee, almonds, citrus and olives. There is little understanding of the genes that contribute to plant resistance, the genomic architecture of resistance, and the potential role of climate in shaping resistance, in part because major crops like grapevines (Vitis vinifera) are not resistant to the bacterium. Here we study a wild grapevine species, V. arizonica, that segregates for resistance. Using genome-wide association, we identify candidate resistance genes. Resistance-associated kmers are shared with a sister species of V. arizonica but not with more distant species, suggesting that resistance evolved more than once. Finally, resistance is climate dependent, because individuals from low (< 10 °C) temperature locations in the wettest quarter were typically susceptible to infection, likely reflecting a lack of pathogen pressure in colder climates. In fact, climate is as effective a predictor of resistance phenotypes as some genetic markers. We extend our climate observations to additional crops, predicting that increased pathogen pressure is more likely for grapevines and almonds than some other susceptible crops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms of woody-plant mortality under rising drought, CO 2 and vapour pressure deficit

Drought-associated woody plant mortality may have increased over the past several decades, and is projected to increase in the future, impacting terrestrial climate forcing, biodiversity, and resource availability. The mechanisms underlying such mortality, however, are debated owing to interactions between multiple drivers and mechanisms. In this work, we synthesize knowledge of drought-related tree mortality under a warming and drying atmosphere with rising atmospheric CO 2 . Drought-associated mortality results from the depletion of pools of water and carbon within a plant and declines in their fluxes relative to demand by living tissues. These pools and fluxes are interdependent and underlay plant defenses against biotic agents. Death via failure to maintain a positive water balance is particularly dependent on soil-to-root conductance, capacitance, vulnerability to hydraulic failure, cuticular water losses, and dehydration tolerance, all of which could be exacerbated by reduced carbon supply rates to support cellular survival e.g. the carbon starvation process. The depletion of plant water and carbon pools accelerates under rising vapor pressure deficit; however, increasing CO 2 can mitigate these impacts. Advancing knowledge and reducing predictive uncertainties requires studies that integrate carbon, water, and defensive processes, and utilize a range of experimental and modeling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coastal groundwater salinization impairs tree carbon–water balance

How coastal forest productivity varies with local nutrient availability and water supply remains a knowledge gap under climate change. In a two-decade field experiment manipulating fertilization and density in coastal pine forests, we show that a decade of growth enhancement by simulated sedimentary nutrient inputs has resulted in a striking reversal in growth and increased mortality risk as drought and sea level rise progressed. Recent groundwater salinization has further triggered a shift from nutrient to water limitation, causing severe stomatal closure and decoupling of tree carbon–water balance, which induces a negative intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE)–growth relationship. Higher tree iWUE predicted sharper tree growth declines, and both nutrient enrichment and high stand density amplified this feedback, increasing the risk of hydraulic failure and mortality. These results suggest that a transient nutrient-stimulatory effect could drive further coastal forest degradation due to heightened belowground saltwater stress under sea-level rise.

Climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits in response to moisture and temperature

Phenotypic plasticity of traits is commonly measured in plants to improve understanding of organismal and ecosystem responses to climate change but is far less studied for microbes. Specifically, decomposer fungi are thought to display high levels of phenotypic plasticity and their functions have important implications for ecosystem dynamics. Assessing the phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits may therefore be important for predicting fungal community response to climate change. Here, we assess the phenotypic plasticity of 15 fungal isolates (12 species) from a Southern California grassland. Fungi were incubated on litter at five moisture levels (ranging from 4–50% water holding capacity) and at five temperatures (ranging from 4–36 °C). After incubation, fungal biomass and activities of four extracellular enzymes (cellobiohydrolase (CBH), β -glucosidase (BG), β -xylosidase (BX), and N-acetyl- β - D -glucosaminidase (NAG)) were measured. We used response surface methodology to determine how fungal phenotypic plasticity differs across the moisture-temperature gradient. We hypothesized that fungal biomass and extracellular enzyme activities would vary with moisture and temperature and that the shape of the response surface would vary between fungal isolates. We further hypothesized that more closely related fungi would show more similar response surfaces across the moisture-temperature gradient. In support of our hypotheses, we found that plasticity differed between fungi along the temperature gradient for fungal biomass and for all the extracellular enzyme activities. Plasticity also differed between fungi along the moisture gradient for BG activity. These differences appear to be caused by variation mainly at the moisture and temperature extremes. We also found that more closely related fungi had more similar extracellular enzymes activities at the highest temperature. Altogether, this evidence suggests that with global warming, fungal biodiversity may become increasingly important as functional traits tend to diverge along phylogenetic lines at higher temperatures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Extreme-Preserving Long-Term Gridded Daily Precipitation Data Set for the Conterminous United States

Extreme daily precipitation contributes to flooding that can cause significant economic damages, and so is important to properly capture in gridded meteorological data sets. This work examines precipitation extremes, the mean precipitation on wet days, and fraction of wet days in two widely used gridded data sets over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). When compared to the underlying station observations, the gridded data show a 27% reduction in annual 1-day maximum precipitation, 25% increase in wet day fraction, 1.5 to 2.5 day increase in mean wet spell length, 30% low bias in 20-year return values of daily precipitation, and 25% decrease in mean precipitation on wet days. It is shown these changes arise primarily from the time-adjustment applied to put the precipitation gauge observations into a uniform time frame, with the gridding process playing a lesser role. A new daily precipitation data set is developed that omits the time-adjustment (as well as extending the gridded data by 7 years) and is shown to perform significantly better in reproducing extreme precipitation metrics. When the new data set is used to force a land surface model, annually averaged 1-day maximum runoff increases 38% compared to the original data, annual mean runoff increases 17%, evapotranspiration drops 2.3%, and fewer wet days leads to a 3.3% increase in estimated solar insolation. Consequently, these changes are large enough to affect portrayals of flood risk and water balance components important for ecological and climate-change applications across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Predicts Geographic and Temporal Variation in Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics on Two Continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Climate-change ecology↗
NASA NTRS2023

Impact of Pacific Ocean Heatwaves on Phytoplankton Community Composition

Since 2013, marine heatwaves have become recurrent throughout the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean and are expected to increase in intensity relative to historic norms. Among the ecological ramifications associated with these high temperature anomalies are increased mortality of higher trophic organisms such as marine mammals and seabirds, which are likely triggered by changes in the composition of phytoplankton, the base of the marine trophic food web. Here, we assimilated satellite ocean color data into an ocean biogeochemical model to describe changes in the abundance of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) during the last decade's (2010s) warm anomalies in the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean. We find important changes associated with the "Blob" warm anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska, where reduced silica supply led to a switch in community composition from diatoms to dinoagellates, resulting in an increase in surface ocean chlorophyll during the Summer-Fall of 2014. A more dramatic change was observed in the equatorial Pacific, where the extreme warm conditions of the 2016 El Niño resulted in a major decline of about 40 % in surface chlorophyll, which was associated with a nearly total collapse in diatoms.

Pacific Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mangrove Canopy Height Globally Related to Precipitation and Cyclone Frequency

Mangrove wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-dense ecosystems in the world. Their structural attributes vary considerably across spatial scales, yielding large uncertainties in regional and global estimates of carbon stocks. Here, we present a global analysis of mangrove canopy height gradients and aboveground carbon stocks based on remotely sensed measurements and field data. Our study highlights that precipitation, temperature and cyclone frequency explain 74% of the global trends in maximum canopy height, with other geophysical factors influencing the observed variability at local and regional scales. We find the tallest mangrove forests in Gabon, equatorial Africa, where stands attain 62.8 m. The total global mangrove carbon stock (above- and belowground biomass, and soil) is estimated at 5.03 Pg, with a quarter of this value stored in Indonesia. Our analysis implies sensitivity of mangrove structure to climate change, and offers a baseline to monitor national and regional trends in mangrove carbon stocks.

Carbon cycle↗
NASA NTRS2018

Hydraulic Diversity of Forests Regulates Ecosystem Resilience During Drought

Plants influence the atmosphere through fluxes of carbon, water and energy, and can intensify drought through land–atmosphere feedback effects. The diversity of plant functional traits in forests, especially physiological traits related to water (hydraulic) transport, may have a critical role in land–atmosphere feedback, particularly during drought. Here we combine 352 site-years of eddy covariance measurements from 40 forest sites, remote-sensing observations of plant water content and plant functional-trait data to test whether the diversity in plant traits affects the response of the ecosystem to drought. We find evidence that higher hydraulic diversity buffers variation in ecosystem flux during dry periods across temperate and boreal forests. Hydraulic traits were the predominant significant predictors of cross-site patterns in drought response. By contrast, standard leaf and wood traits, such as specific leaf area and wood density, had little explanatory power. Our results demonstrate that diversity in the hydraulic traits of trees mediates ecosystem resilience to drought and is likely to have an important role in future ecosystem–atmosphere feedback effects in a changing climate.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
DOE OSTI2025

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (E LUC ) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, in this work, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that E LUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO 2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average E LUC was -0.14 Pg C yr -1 , accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced and satellite-derived approaches to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗