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At least 37 records · Page 2

Hydropower Flexibility Framework (Final Technical Report)

The Hydropower Flexibility Framework (HFF) tool focuses on providing the hydropower community with an effective means of assessing optimized hydropower plant outcomes. This tool combines both site specific characteristics, which act to constrain plant operation, and the hydrologic and grid characteristics which drive hydropower plant operation. The hydropower community faces a confluence of factors which drive the importance of developing such a capability, including an aging hydropower fleet subject to a range of modernization opportunities, a large number of hydropower plant relicensing activities which may affect operational requirements, an electrical grid with increasing levels of variable resources which must be balanced to maintain grid stability, and climate change influencing riverine hydrologic patterns outside of design characteristics. With support from the hydropower community, the project team developed the HFF tool and demonstrated the tool through a series of Use Cases. This guidance was developed as a part of the larger HFF tool User’s Manual (see Appendix B), a resource designed to inform other users and to empower community uptake of the tool. The HFF tool, hosted at https://hfftool.com/, was developed with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). EPRI is currently exploring alternatives to support the continued maintenance and functionally of the online tool.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Editorial: Harmonizing life cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) guidelines: a common framework for consistent conduct and transparent reporting of carbon dioxide removal and CCU technology appraisal

Stabilizing the climate will require significant efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, manage emissions that cannot be avoided, and remove as many legacy emissions as possible [i.e., carbon dioxide (International Energy Agency, 2020; Author Collective, 2022)]. In that context, negative emissions technologies will take CO 2 from the air (Direct Air Capture) or the water (Direct Ocean Capture) and permanently remove it (Roger et al., 2021) either by sequestering the CO 2 underground or converting it to so-called Track 1 materials (Sick et al., 2021) that have lifetimes of >100 years. Shorter-lived products that decompose back into CO 2 in <100 years are categorized as Track 2 materials and will at best be carbon neutral. A carbon neutral status can also be achieved if captured CO 2 from fossil-based point sources is sequestered or used to create Track 1 materials. Conversion of CO 2 from fossil-based sources to any Track 2 material and subsequent decomposition would add new fossil-based carbon to the atmosphere, constituting an ultimately undesirable process. The overall carbon footprint of a process or product will depend on many factors associated with the carbon production, use, and disposal phases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropopause Characteristics Based on Long-Term ARM Radiosonde Data: A Fine-Scale Comparison at the Extratropical SGP Site and Arctic NSA Site

The variations in the characteristics of the tropopause are sensitive indicators for the climate system and climate change. By using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) radiosonde data that were recorded at the extratropical Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Arctic North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites over an 18-year period (January 2003 to December 2020), this study performs a fine-scale comparison of the climatological tropopause features between these two sites that are characterized by different climates. The static stability increases rapidly above the tropopause at both sites, indicating the widespread existence of a tropopause inversion layer. The structures of both the tropopause inversion layer and the stability transition layer are more obvious at NSA than at SGP, and the seasonal variation trends of the tropopause inversion layer and stability transition layer are distinctly different between the two sites. A fitting method was used to derive the fitted tropopause height and tropopause sharpness (λ). Although this fitting method may determine a secondary tropopause rather than the primary tropopause when multiple tropopause heights are identified on one radiosonde profile, the fitted tropopause heights generally agree well with the observed tropopause heights. Broad tropopause sharpness values (λ > 2 km) occur more frequently at SGP than at NSA, resulting in a greater average tropopause sharpness at SGP (1.0 km) than at NSA (0.6 km). Significant positive trends are exhibited by the tropopause heights over the two sites, with rates of increase of 23.7 ± 6.5 m yr ⁻1 at SGP and 28.0 ± 4.0 m yr ⁻1 at NSA during the study period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Combining organic amendments with enhanced rock weathering shifts soil carbon storage in croplands

Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) involves applying crushed silicate minerals to cropland soils to remove carbon dioxide and stabilize the global climate. If practiced widely, ERW has the potential to mitigate climate change and improve soil health and crop productivity. However, most ERW studies emphasize inorganic carbon (IC) chemistry, using model-based estimates and short-term mesocosms. Limited field data exist on how ERW interacts with organic amendments to affect organic carbon (C) cycling in soils. In a three-year field study in conventionally managed, irrigated maize fields, we monitored how key soil variables responded to crushed rock-alone, and in combination with compost and/or biochar. We measured weathering indicators (pH, major cations, and IC contents) and organic fractions, including particulate organic matter (POM), mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM), microbial biomass C, and water-extractable organic C. Rock-alone treatments increased weathering proxies (pH and IC) and showed an increasing trend in POM and MAOM, relative to control. In contrast, combining crushed rock with organic amendments resulted in lower soil organic C and nitrogen (N) concentrations (in both POM and MAOM) compared to organic amendments alone, though IC increased in the rock+compost treatment. Combining rock with both compost and biochar (compost/biochar) significantly lowered MAOM-N compared to compost/biochar alone. Overall, co-applying rock with organic inputs may promote weathering and C accrual but slow the accrual rate of organic C and N relative to organic amendments alone. Quantifying these trade-offs over multiple years and scales is critical to integrating ERW with existing soil health practices and climate mitigation strategies.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Enhancing building resilience in cold climates: Integrating heat pump technologies with renewable energy

As electrification advances and Cold Climate Heat Pump technology progresses, ensuring grid stability becomes increasingly critical for effective heating in cold climates. However, natural disasters, especially during winter, pose significant threats to grid stability, impacting the reliability of air-source heat pumps. Despite these challenges, the integration of renewable energy sources and storage solutions in heating systems has not been extensively studied within the context of resilience. Here, this paper delves into the literature on renewable-powered heat pumps to assess their potential in enhancing building resilience in U.S. cold climate zones, which are particularly susceptible to extreme weather and grid disruptions. By leveraging renewable sources—solar, geothermal, and water—in conjunction with heat pump technology and supported by thermal or battery storage, this approach aims to provide a dependable solution for maintaining indoor heating during grid failures. Our analysis begins with a review of various renewable energy sources suitable for heat pumps, followed by an exploration of their application in cold climate regions across the U.S., and discussions on potential integration strategies with heat pump systems. This study highlights the advantages and suitability of solar irradiance and geothermal resources, emphasizing the importance of tailored, site-specific assessments to maximize energy efficiency and resilience. Additionally, it outlines the economic and environmental considerations necessary for implementing such systems and identifies potential challenges and areas for future research to facilitate the broader integration of renewable energy in heating solutions for enhanced resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Climate warming and elevated CO 2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability

Peatlands are an important carbon (C) reservoir storing one-third of global soil organic carbon (SOC), but little is known about the fate of these C stocks under climate change. Here, we examine the impact of warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) on the molecular composition of SOC to infer SOC sources (microbe-, plant- and fire-derived) and stability in a boreal peatland. We show that while warming alone decreased plant- and microbe-derived SOC due to enhanced decomposition, warming combined with eCO 2 increased plant-derived SOC compounds. We further observed increasing root-derived inputs (suberin) and declining leaf/needle-derived inputs (cutin) into SOC under warming and eCO 2 . The decline in SOC compounds with warming and gains from new root-derived C under eCO 2 , suggest that warming and eCO 2 may shift peatland C budget towards pools with faster turnover. Together, our results indicate that climate change may increase inputs and enhance decomposition of SOC potentially destabilising C storage in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities for low-carbon generation and storage technologies to decarbonise the future power system

Alternatives to cope with the challenges of high shares of renewable electricity in power systems have been addressed from different approaches, such as energy storage and low-carbon technologies. However, no model has previously considered integrating these technologies under stability requirements and different climate conditions. In this study, we include this approach to analyse the role of new technologies to decarbonise the power system. The Spanish power system is modelled to provide insights for future applications in other regions. After including storage and low-carbon technologies (currently available and under development), batteries and hydrogen fuel cells have low penetration, and the derived emission reduction is negligible in all scenarios. Compressed air storage would have a limited role in the short term, but its performance improves in the long term. Flexible generation technologies based on hydrogen turbines and long-duration storage would allow the greatest decarbonisation, providing stability and covering up to 11-14 % of demand in the short and long term. The hydrogen storage requirement is equivalent to 18 days of average demand (well below the theoretical storage potential in the region). When these solutions are considered, decarbonising the electricity system (achieving Paris targets) is possible without a significant increase in system costs (< 114 euro/MWh).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs

Abstract As regions around the world invest billions in new infrastructure to overcome increasing water scarcity, better guidance is needed to facilitate cooperative planning and investment in institutionally complex and interconnected water supply systems. This work combines detailed water resource system ensemble modeling with multiobjective intelligent search to explore infrastructure investment partnership design in the context of ongoing canal rehabilitation and groundwater banking in California. Here we demonstrate that severe tradeoffs can emerge between conflicting goals related to water supply deliveries, partnership size, and the underlying financial risks associated with cooperative infrastructure investments. We show how hydroclimatic variability and institutional complexity can create significant uncertainty in realized water supply benefits and heterogeneity in partners’ financial risks that threaten infrastructure investment partnership viability. We demonstrate how multiobjective intelligent search can design partnerships with substantially higher water supply benefits and a fraction of the financial risk compared to status quo planning processes. This work has important implications globally for efforts to use cooperative infrastructure investments to enhance the climate resilience and financial stability of water supply systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Global divergence in urban demographic change and migration patterns

Cities are central to economic development, climate adaptation and social stability, yet globally consistent evidence on how city populations are changing remains limited. Here we analyze annual age- and sex-structured population estimates for more than 10,000 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2020 and show that urban demographic change was highly uneven. Globally, the ratio of children and older adults to working-age adults declined from 0.87 to 0.59, but smaller cities remained consistently younger than larger cities, especially in Africa. We also find pronounced spatial variation in urban sex ratios, including strong male surpluses in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, consistent with patterns of labor migration. Finally, we estimate that 45% of urban population growth was attributable to net migration and 55% to natural increase. These results show that national averages can obscure substantial differences between cities, and highlight the value of globally consistent city-level demographic estimates for understanding regional demographic change and informing locally tailored urban planning.

development studies↗

SPRUCE Climate Warming and Elevated CO2 Rapidly Alter Peatland Soil Carbon Sources and Stability: Supporting Data

This data set reports a suite of complementary biogeochemical analyses of peat samples from the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment. Results were collected using quantitative molecular analysis of bulk soil carbon to assess the stability of soil organic carbon following whole-ecosystem warming and exposure to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2). Targeted soil organic carbon components include solvent-extractable compounds (alkanoic acids, alkanols, alkanes, steroids, and terpenoids), ester-bound hydrolysable biopolymers (cutin and suberin markers), lignin phenols, and pyrogenic carbon. Bulk peat samples were analysed by Soxhlet extraction and solid phase separation for solvent-extractable compounds, alkaline hydrolysis to extract hydrolysable biopolymers, copper (II) oxide oxidation to extract lignin phenols and benzene polycarboxylic acids (BPCAs) as an approximation of pyrogenic carbon. Samples were analysed by gas chromatography (GC) equipped with a flame ionization detector (GC-FID) and compound identification was performed on GC coupled to mass selective detector (MS) for solvent-extractable compounds, ester-bound hydrolysable biopolymers and lignin phenols, and high-performance liquid chromatograph (HPLC) for pyrogenic carbon. Results are presented in Ofiti et al. (accepted). The experimental work was conducted on samples collected in August 2018 at the SPRUCE climate manipulation experiment in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). Samples were collected and later analysed in a 10 cm increments over 0 to 50 cm depth and 25 cm intervals from 50 to 75 cm. Samples were analyzed for lignin phenols over 0 to 30 cm depth. This data set contains one file in comma separate (*.csv) format. This dataset contains data used to produce: Ofiti, N.O.E., Schmidt, M.W.I., Abiven, S., Hanson, P.J., Iversen, C.M., Wilson, R.M., Kostka, J.E., Wiesenberg, G.L.B., Malhotra, A. 2023. Climate warming and elevated CO2 rapidly alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability. Nat Commun 14, 7533. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43410-z.

SPRUCE experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, so↗

Thermodynamic and kinematic drivers of atmospheric boundary layer stability in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low-wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low-radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments; a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low-wind, high-radiation environments; weak stability occurs in high-wind, moderate-radiation environments; and a near-neutral ABL forms in high-wind, high-radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stability Analysis of Coupled Advection-Diffusion Models with Bulk Interface Condition

Numerical stability is of critical importance in general circulation models because it affects the design of algorithms, time to solution, and computational costs associated with the simulations, which are very expensive in practice. In this paper we extend the stability analysis for ocean-atmosphere coupling proposed in [Zhang et al., J. Sci. Comput. 84, 44(2020)] to a more realistic model that includes horizontal advection. We analyze various time-stepping strategies. We find that advection has a stabilizing effect in scenarios common to climate models when bulk interface condition and explicit flux coupling are used. We also show that our method can be used to study the stability impact of advection for other interface conditions such as Dirichlet-Neumann conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

One-Parameter Analytical Derivation in Modified Budyko Framework for Unsteady-State Streamflow Elasticity in Humid Catchments

The changes in climate and catchment properties have altered the hydrological processes significantly at different spatiotemporal scales around the world. In particular for finer time scales, changes in water storage, which has been commonly neglected for long-term temporal scales, may play an important role on hydrological processes. Nevertheless, few studies addressed this question in modifying the Budyko framework, with most of them remaining a steady-state assumption on catchment characteristics. Here, in this work, we derive new analytical formulas of unsteady-state streamflow elasticity in a modified Budyko framework, incorporating both storage change and one specific parameter for catchment properties. We study 78 humid catchments in the USA with simulation data of daily hydrological processes from a probability-distribution-based hydrological model (the modified HyMOD). As indicated by results, the annual storage change ratio is linearly correlated with the annual aridity index, and this relationship can be used to estimate elasticity coefficients with our formulas. The estimated elasticity coefficients perform well in simulating the annual streamflow with the power-law model. For different catchments, variability of the unsteady-state elasticity is higher than that of the steady-state elasticity. Unsteady-state streamflow coefficients show significant linear correlation with catchment properties, such as the average slope, average elevation, and catchment area. This study provides a new analytical approach to investigate the interannual stability of catchments with varying climate and catchment properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Tutorial on the Control of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines: Stability Challenges and Opportunities for Power Capture

Climate change is a serious threat facing humanity. The United States (U.S.) and many other countries are increasing the amount of electrical power generated from renewable energy sources in an effort to combat climate change and ensure energy independence. The U.S. has set goals to achieve a 100% decarbonized electric grid by 2035 and a net-zero emissions economy by no later than 2050. Renewable energy currently accounts for about 20% of the U.S. power grid. According to the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in the U.S. in 2021, wind and solar photovoltaic generation supplied 9.1% and 4% of total electricity generation, respectively, and the latest publicly available data show that hydropower represented 6.6% of all electricity generated in the U.S. in 2019. As wind farms have been built in many of the best wind resource areas on land, the U.S. and many other countries are turning to offshore wind for further growth of wind power capacity. Further, the U.S. has committed to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, a significant increase from the 0.04 GW of installed offshore wind in the country as of the end of 2023. Many other countries have also established ambitious goals or plans to increase the amount of installed offshore wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Synergetic Effects of Soil Organic Matter Components During Interactions with Minerals

Mineral-associated soil organic matter (SOM) is critical for stabilizing organic carbon and mitigating climate change. However, mineral-SOM interactions at the molecular scale, particularly synergetic adsorption through organic-organic interaction on the mineral surface known as organic multilayering, remain poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of organic multilayering on mineral-SOM interactions, by integrating macroscale experiments and molecular-scale simulations that assess the individual and sequential adsorption of major SOM compounds – lauric acid (lipid), pentaglycine (amino acid), trehalose (carbohydrate), and lignin onto soil minerals. Ferrihydrite, Al-hydroxide, and calcite are exposed to SOM compounds to determine adsorption affinities and binding energies. Results show that lauric acid has 20-40 times higher K d than pentaglycine, following the order K d (ferrihydrite) > K d (Al-hydroxide) >> K d (calcite). Molecular-scale simulations confirm that lauric acid has a higher binding energy (30.8 kcal/mol) on ferrihydrite than pentaglycine (6.0 kcal/mol), attributed to lipid hydrophobicity. The lower binding energy of pentaglycine results from its hydrophilic amide groups, facilitating partitioning into water. Sequential experiments examine how the first layer of lipid or amino acid affects the adsorption of carbohydrate/lignin, which show little or no individual adsorption affinities. Macroscale results reveal that lipid and amino acid adsorption induce ferrihydrite particle repulsion increasing reactive surface area and enhancing carbohydrate/lignin adsorption independently and synergistically through organic multilayering. Molecular-scale results reveal that amino acid adsorbed on ferrihydrite interacts more readily with lignin macroaggregates (preformed in solution) than with individual lignin units, indicating organic multilayering via H-bonding. Further, these findings reveal the molecular mechanisms of SOM-mineral interactions, crucial for enhancing soil carbon stabilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesh-like structure integrated core-shell-shell nanocomposites for enhanced stability and performance in carbon capture

Carbon capture is essential for mitigating climate change, yet most sorbents struggle to combine high capacity with chemical stability. Here we report core-shell-shell (CSS) nanocomposites that integrate adsorption efficiency with exceptional robustness. The design couples a metal-organic framework (MOF) core, which enriches local CO 2 concentration, with a polyamine shell that is reorganized into a porous, ordered network through entanglement with an outer covalent organic framework (COF) shell. This hierarchical architecture enables dual amine functionalization via sequential “click” and Schiff-base reactions, achieving a CO 2 uptake of 3.4 mmol g −1 at 1 bar. The COF outer layer also acts as a protective barrier, suppressing humidity interference and doubling cycling stability under simulated flue gas. Remarkably, the nanocomposites maintain structural integrity after one week in strongly acidic (3 M HNO 3 ) or basic (NaOH, pH=14) environments, underscoring their chemical resilience. By uniting high capacity, cycling durability, and environmental tolerance, this CSS strategy offers a versatile platform for next-generation carbon capture materials.

Yang, Sizhuo [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

Co-regulation of water and energy in the spatial heterogeneity of drought resistance and resilience

Vegetation resistance and resilience to drought are linked to the stability of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. However, the factors driving the spatial heterogeneity in drought resistance and resilience remain poorly understood. In the study, we utilized multiple satellite-derived vegetation indices to calculate and analyze changes in drought resistance and resilience across various biomes worldwide. Results indicated that drought resistance showed a significant increase with the increase in water availability, but no significant relationship was observed between drought resistance and energy. In contrast, drought resilience exhibited a significant increase with an increase in energy rather than in water. Furthermore, a negative correlation was observed between drought resistance and resilience across different biomes worldwide, indicating a trade-off between resistance and resilience. However, the strength of the negative correlation varied based on water and energy conditions. These findings provide compelling evidence that water and energy co-regulated the spatial heterogeneity in drought resistance and resilience across the globe. The robust linear relationship between drought resistance and resilience and available water and energy demonstrated in our study is critical to accurately predicting and assessing the impact of climate change on vegetation growth and terrestrial carbon cycling in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗