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At least 37 records · Page 2

Energy Transitions: Local Water Concerns and Climate Impacts

This report summarizes important nuances in local water concerns and potential climate impacts that could influence the roll-out of technologies associated with energy transitions. Current investments in clean energy technologies are very high, which is driving a lot of investments in related manufacturing (i.e., hydrogen, solar, wind, and batteries) and mining (e.g., lithium, copper, and graphite) around the world. To understand how water and climate dynamics could be influencing these activities, we conducted a phased literature review for three countries: China, Germany, and France. China was selected due to its global dominance in manufacturing of solar panels, batteries, and electrolyzers as well as production of rare earth elements while Germany and France were selected due to their emerging leadership in energy transitions-related manufacturing within the European Union. For each of these three nations, we identified areas where manufacturing is occurring within the country and then evaluated relevant water resources and climate impacts. Multiple sources were consulted for this review, including BloombergNEF, international reports, industry sources, peer-reviewed literature, climate data, and media coverage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Representing Climate Impacts in Scenaros

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Scenarios of future emissions and land use have been most commonly produced without accounting for the effects that climate impacts linked to those emissions and land use changes may have. The questions of how important such impacts could be, at the regional or global scale, has become an increasingly cogent one. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we implement climate impacts on water supply, agricultural productivity, and energy demand driven by climatic impact drivers whose evolution over the 21st century is representative of a climate consistent with GCAM's reference scenario and compare the output to the reference at both regional and global scales. We show that the impacts from the version of GCAM that uses GDP as an exogenous input are not sufficient to bend emission pathways at the global scale. However, we see effects emerge at the regional scale in terms of emissions, among other metrics linked to water, land and energy. We expect the impacts to become more significant at an aggregate, global scale in a forthcoming version of the model with endogenous GDP. Meanwhile, we document the mechanisms that drive the difference at regional scales which could still be significant in their impacts for individual economies and populations. Presenters: Dr. Claudia Tebaldi (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator(s): Jennifer Morris (MSD CoP SSG member), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 5, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Climate Scenarios↗

Reply to Comment by Cole-dai Et Al. on "Climatic Impact of the Long-lasting Laki Eruption: Inapplicability of Mass-independent Sulfur Isotope Composition Measurements"

Here we respond to the comments by Cole-Dai et al. [2014] on our article Schmidt et al. [2012]. Specifically, in response to section 2 of their reply, we argued in Schmidt et al. [2012] that based on previously published estimates of the volatile release height during the 1783-1784 C.E. Laki eruption, the lack of a sulfur massindependent fractionation (MIF) anomaly is expected. In other words, no previous study on Laki ever argued that this eruption emitted SO2 into altitudes >13-15 km. In section 2.3, Cole-Dai et al. [2014] argue that the nonzero Δ33S value of their Laki sample 1 may be explained by a short-lived explosive phase at Laki during which volatiles reached the stratosphere. In Schmidt et al. [2012] in section 2, we argued in agreement with Cole-Dai et al. [2014] (section 3.1) that for a MIF anomaly to be preserved, the Laki volatiles would have had to be emitted in >20 km altitude. Our main point is that eruption column heights >20 km are unlikely based on the historical accounts and plume-rise modeling for the Laki eruption [Stothers et al., 1986; Woods, 1993; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. In Schmidt et al. [2012], we argued that to deduce a short-lived climatic impact of the Laki eruption based on the lack of a MIF anomaly and the length of the sulfate deposition in Greenland ice cores may be misleading because the climatic impact will outlast the radiative forcing of the Laki aerosol cloud. Cole-Dai et al. [2014] acknowledge the latter in their reply in section 4.2. We agreewith Cole-Dai et al. [2014] in that themagnitude and length of the climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784 depends on the altitude of the volatile release during the eruption (sections 2.3 and 4.2). However, even if we assumed that during Laki all sulfur dioxide (SO2) would have been released in the troposphere, then the aerosol cloud would still be present in the upper troposphere during March 1784, as is evident from independent model simulations of this "tropospheric-only" scenario [Stevenson et al., 2003]. We acknowledge that there is uncertainty on the volatile release height for Laki; however, it is worth considering that those climate model simulations that used an injection altitude between 9 km and 13 km for the Laki SO2 [Highwood and Stevenson, 2003; Oman et al., 2006a, 2006b; Schmidt et al., 2012] best match the observed temperature changes during summer of 1783 [Angell and Korshover, 1985; Brázdil et al., 2010; Briffa et al., 1998; D'Arrigo and Jacoby, 1999; Jacoby et al., 1999; Kington, 1988; Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. Based on these model simulations, a climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784, albeit weaker than during the climactic phases of Laki, is expected (and our argument here does not exclude the role of natural variability in contributing to the cold winter of 1783-1784 as discussed in Schmidt et al. [2012]). Therefore, we continue to argue that for high-latitude eruptions such as Laki, the applicability of sulfur isotopic measurements to interpret the climatic relevance has yet to be demonstrated. Itmay transpire that the interpretation of MIF signals for the climate-relevance of an eruption is valid and unambiguous only for short-lived explosive eruptions in the tropics. In terms of the processes producing a MIF anomaly (section 3.3 in Cole-Dai et al. [2014]), the works by Hattori et al. [2013] and Ono et al. [2013] suggest that there are remaining issues not discussed by Cole-Dai et al. [2014], for instance, self-shielding of SO2 due to high column densities typical for eruptions of Pinatubo-scale and greater, and the preservation of the MIF signature in general.

general circulation model↗

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗

Atmospheric Effects and Potential Climatic Impact of the 1980 Eruptions of Mount St. Helens

Measurements and studies of the 1980 Mount St. Helens volcanic eruptions and their atmospheric effects and climatic impact are addressed. Specific areas discussed include: (1) nature and impact of volcanic eruptions; (2) in situ measurements of effluents; (3) remote sensing measurements; (4) transport and dispersion of volcanic effluents; (5) chemistry of volcanic effluents; and (6) weather and potential climate impact.

Adarsh Deepak↗

Dilemma of organic matter input to mitigate climate impact of rice paddies

Soil can act as either a source or sink of atmospheric carbon (C). Organic matter application can sequester carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) through negative emission technologies. However, in rice paddies, organic matter application can significantly increase methane (CH 4 ) emissions, offsetting potential climate benefits. Here, we compared the effects of organic matter types on net climate impact by quantifying annual gaseous fluxes and soil C stock changes with CO 2 equivalents. All organic amendments increased CH 4 emissions (7–30 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 ) compared with the no organic matter treatment (NPK). However, the increases in soil C stock (9–11 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 ) were insufficient to shift the system from a net C source to a net sink, even when combined with water management strategies. In contrast, biochar increased CH 4 emissions but enhanced soil C stock, leading to a net negative emission effect without compromising rice productivity. Given that rice paddies account for about 11 % of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions, organic matter application requires careful evaluation to avoid exacerbating climatic impacts.

Climate impact↗

Shallow cumulus entrainment: observational retrieval, physical interpretation, and climate impacts (Final grant report)

This document constitutes a final technical report for DE-SC0020083, a research grant awarded by the US Department of Energy Office of Science, to Prof. Daniel Kirshbaum at McGill University. The original research proposal, entitled "Shallow cumulus entrainment: observational retrieval, physical interpretation, and climate impacts", defined four scientific objectives that synthesized ARM observations with turbulence-permitting large-eddy simulations (LES) to quantify and understand the process of cumulus entrainment, whereby a cumulus cloud ingests surrounding air through its lateral edges. These objectives included developing observational climatologies of cumulus bulk entrainment rate at two ARM observatories, physical interpretation of these findings using LES, quantification of the impacts of subcloud circulations on entrainment, and the climate impacts of flow-dependent entrainment variations. In the six years that have elapsed since the grant was awarded (three funded years and three no-cost annual extensions), all four of the objectives were successfully addressed. Four personnel were trained (one B.Sc., one M.Sc. to completion, five years of Ph.D. training, and 2.5 years of postdoctoral training), eight peer-reviewed articles were published in high-impact journals, and 20 presentations were delivered (three invited).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 01: Introduction

Abstract New York State's climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, precipitation is increasing, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. Over time, these changes are projected to worsen. The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment provides a science‐based analysis of what to expect from climate change in New York. Working with partners across the state, the team assembled to produce this assessment reviewed the latest science and modeling to project and characterize what New York State's climate is likely to look like in the future and how this will affect natural systems, society, and various sectors of the economy. The assessment will enable decision‐makers at all levels—from individual residents, businesses, and landowners to municipal and state government agencies—to better understand and make informed choices about how to plan and prepare for climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Hansen, James↗

Exploring the Climatic Impact of Bi-Modal Dust Particle Size Distributions During the MY34/2018 Global Dust Storm with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model.

We have implemented a bi-modal dust lifting scheme in the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) and investigated the climatic impact on the MY34/2018 Global Dust Storm (GDS). We found that the climate is measurably responsive to the inclusion of a second, smaller dust mode. Dust tends to be lifted through a deeper column in the atmosphere, which is reflected in the climate as changes to atmospheric temperature, tide amplitudes, and surface temperatures. Adding a modest fraction of a smaller dust mode improves simulations during the GDS compared to Curiosity semi-diurnal tide observations as well as Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) T15 brightness temperatures

R A Urata↗

Three-Dimensional Trajectory Design for Reducing Climate Impact of Trans-Atlantic Flights

The impact of aircraft emissions and contrails on the environment adds an additional aspect to aircraft trajectory optimization. This study developed a three-dimensional trajectory optimization algorithm for trans-Atlantic flights in cruise to generate aircraft trajectories that minimize environmental impacts due to CO2 emissions and contrails in the presence of winds. The climate-optimal trajectory is developed using dynamic programming that adjusts a wind-optimal aircraft heading while determining the optimal locations, altitudes and times for en-route step climbs. Flying wind-optimal routes minimize aircraft travel time, fuel burn and associated emissions during cruise while adjusting aircraft heading and en-route step climbs at the optimal locations and times minimize climate impact of contrails. This capability integrates an air traffic management simulation with aircraft fuel burn and emissions models, contrail formation and dispersion models, simplified climate response models, and a common climate metric. A study was conducted to evaluate the potential cost and benefits of flying climate-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace and their impacts to the Organized Track System design based on the trans-Atlantic air traffic during a day, July 12, 2012. Results show eastbound flights achieved a larger environmental benefit with less additional fuel burn than westbound flights that operated in strong headwinds that caused more additional fuel burn and aircraft emissions to avoid traversing contrails favorable regions.

climate impact of aviation↗

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

Technical Assessment of Potential Climate Impact and Economic Viability of Biochar Technologies for Small-Scale Agriculture in the Pacific Northwest

The goal of this study is to evaluate the state of biochar technology and determine the feasibility of integrating small-scale biochar production in ways that benefit smaller, diversified producers. Because of the emergence of carbon markets, this innovative climate and agricultural solution may be financed externally, making biochar more accessible to the growers that could benefit. In this report, we review the current state of biochar technology (Section 2), methods for assessing the potential climate impacts derived from its implementation (Section 3), and the current state of carbon-offset mechanisms for biochar technology (Section 4). In Section 5, we apply this knowledge to several specific biochar technology scenarios involving combinations of different feedstocks, production methods, and economic incentives to arrive at estimates of climate-mitigation impacts and costs per carbon credit generated. We conclude with a summary in Section 6.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗

Mechanistic Simulations Suggest Riparian Restoration Can Partly Counteract Climate Impacts to Juvenile Salmon

Climate change is reducing summertime water availability and elevating water temperature, placing human consumptive needs in competition with needs of coldwater fishes. Here we worked with natural resource managers in the Snoqualmie River (Washington, USA) to develop riparian management scenarios, and used a process-based modeling system to examine how a threatened population of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytcha) may respond to climate change and whether riparian restoration could reduce climate effects. Linking models of global climate, regional hydrology and water temperature, and fish, we projected that streams would become warmer year-round and drier during summer, further stressing salmon. Climate change accelerated egg emergence, increased juvenile growth and survival, and accelerated outmigration of sub-yearling migrants. Growth was depressed for salmon remaining instream during summer (potential yearling migrants). Riparian restoration counteracted ~10% of summer increases in water temperature, and affected salmon similarly regardless of whether riparian buffers were partially or fully restored, whereas riparian degradation further warmed streams. Riparian restoration fully mitigated climate change effects on potential yearling migrant size, but only minimally affected sub-yearling migrants (assessment metrics changed <2%). Our results will be useful for watershed managers in aligning priorities for fish and humans and our framework can be applied elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Tools for Climate Impacts on Water Resources

Climate and environmental change are expected to fundamentally alter the nation's hydrological cycle and water availability. Satellites provide global or near-global coverage using instruments, allowing for consistent, well-calibrated, and equivalent-quality data of the Earth system. A major goal for NASA climate and environmental change research is to create multi-instrument data sets to span the multi-decadal time scales of climate change and to combine these data with those from modeling and surface-based observing systems to improve process understanding and predictions. NASA and Earth science data and analyses will ultimately enable more accurate climate prediction, and characterization of uncertainties. NASA's Applied Sciences Program works with other groups, including other federal agencies, to transition demonstrated observational capabilities to operational capabilities. A summary of some of NASA tools for improved water resources management will be presented.

Toll, David↗