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Compilation of Abstracts for SC12 Conference Proceedings

1 A Breakthrough in Rotorcraft Prediction Accuracy Using Detached Eddy Simulation; 2 Adjoint-Based Design for Complex Aerospace Configurations; 3 Simulating Hypersonic Turbulent Combustion for Future Aircraft; 4 From a Roar to a Whisper: Making Modern Aircraft Quieter; 5 Modeling of Extended Formation Flight on High-Performance Computers; 6 Supersonic Retropropulsion for Mars Entry; 7 Validating Water Spray Simulation Models for the SLS Launch Environment; 8 Simulating Moving Valves for Space Launch System Liquid Engines; 9 Innovative Simulations for Modeling the SLS Solid Rocket Booster Ignition; 10 Solid Rocket Booster Ignition Overpressure Simulations for the Space Launch System; 11 CFD Simulations to Support the Next Generation of Launch Pads; 12 Modeling and Simulation Support for NASA's Next-Generation Space Launch System; 13 Simulating Planetary Entry Environments for Space Exploration Vehicles; 14 NASA Center for Climate Simulation Highlights; 15 Ultrascale Climate Data Visualization and Analysis; 16 NASA Climate Simulations and Observations for the IPCC and Beyond; 17 Next-Generation Climate Data Services: MERRA Analytics; 18 Recent Advances in High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Modeling; 19 Causes and Consequences of Turbulence in the Earths Protective Shield; 20 NASA Earth Exchange (NEX): A Collaborative Supercomputing Platform; 21 Powering Deep Space Missions: Thermoelectric Properties of Complex Materials; 22 Meeting NASA's High-End Computing Goals Through Innovation; 23 Continuous Enhancements to the Pleiades Supercomputer for Maximum Uptime; 24 Live Demonstrations of 100-Gbps File Transfers Across LANs and WANs; 25 Untangling the Computing Landscape for Climate Simulations; 26 Simulating Galaxies and the Universe; 27 The Mysterious Origin of Stellar Masses; 28 Hot-Plasma Geysers on the Sun; 29 Turbulent Life of Kepler Stars; 30 Modeling Weather on the Sun; 31 Weather on Mars: The Meteorology of Gale Crater; 32 Enhancing Performance of NASAs High-End Computing Applications; 33 Designing Curiosity's Perfect Landing on Mars; 34 The Search Continues: Kepler's Quest for Habitable Earth-Sized Planets.

HPC↗

Preliminary Evaluation of MapReduce for High-Performance Climate Data Analysis

MapReduce is an approach to high-performance analytics that may be useful to data intensive problems in climate research. It offers an analysis paradigm that uses clusters of computers and combines distributed storage of large data sets with parallel computation. We are particularly interested in the potential of MapReduce to speed up basic operations common to a wide range of analyses. In order to evaluate this potential, we are prototyping a series of canonical MapReduce operations over a test suite of observational and climate simulation datasets. Our initial focus has been on averaging operations over arbitrary spatial and temporal extents within Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. Preliminary results suggest this approach can improve efficiencies within data intensive analytic workflows.

Duffy, Daniel Q.↗

Space View Issues for Hyperspectral Sounders

The expectation for climate quality measurements from hyperspectral sounders is absolute calibration accuracy at the 100 mK level and stability at the < 40 mK/decade level. The Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS)1, Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) hyperspectral sounders currently in orbit have been shown to agree well over most of their brightness temperature range. Some larger discrepancies are seen, however, at the coldest scene temperatures, such as those seen in Antarctic winter and deep convective clouds. A key limiting factor for the calibrated scene radiance accuracy for cold scenes is how well the effective radiance of the cold space view pertains to the scene views. The space view signal is composed of external sources and instrument thermal emission at about 270 K from the scan mirror, external baffles, etc. Any difference in any of these contributions between space views and scene views will impact the absolute calibration accuracy, and the impact can be critical for cold scenes. Any change over time in these will show up as an apparent trend in calibrated radiances. We use AIRS data to investigate the validity of the space view assumption in view of the 100 mK accuracy and 40 mK/decade trend expectations. We show that the space views used for the cold calibration point for AIRS v5 Level-1B products meet these standards except under special circumstances and that AIRS v6 Level-1B products will meet them under all circumstances. This analysis also shows the value of having multiple distinct space views to give operational redundancy and analytic data, and that reaching climate quality requires continuing monitoring of aging instruments and adjustment of calibration.

trends↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 8: Indicators and Monitoring

The Indicators and Monitoring chapter of the first New York City Panel on Climate Change Report began with the paradigm: What cannot be measured cannot be managed (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). This statement is as valid today as it was then.The NPCC1 (2010) Indicators and Monitoring chapter addressed the need for assembling a suite of indicators to monitor climate change and adaptation in order to inform climate change decision making. It outlined criteria for selection of indicators (policy relevance, analytic soundness, measurability), defined categories of indicators (physical climate change; risk exposure, vulnerability, and impacts; adaptation; new research), and provided examples of specific indicators. Table 8.1 is a summary table of indicator development contribution from the NPCC1 I&M chapter (Jacob et al., 2011). The chapter explored the institutional requirements for indicator data availability, continuity, archiving, and public accessibility.

Blake, Reginald↗

MERRA/AS: The MERRA Analytic Services Project Interim Report

MERRA AS is a cyberinfrastructure resource that will combine iRODS-based Climate Data Server (CDS) capabilities with Coudera MapReduce to serve MERRA analytic products, store the MERRA reanalysis data collection in an HDFS to enable parallel, high-performance, storage-side data reductions, manage storage-side driver, mapper, reducer code sets and realized objects for users, and provide a library of commonly used spatiotemporal operations that can be composed to enable higher-order analyses.

MapReduce↗

Energy-balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.↗

Energy balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.↗

A Three-Dimensional Analytic Model for the Scattering of a Spherical Bush

Advanced climate models require a more realistic description of canopy radiation with reasonable computational efficiency. This paper develops the mathematics of scattering from a spherical object conceptualized to be a spherical bush to provide a building block that helps to address this need of climate models. It is composed of a homogeneous distribution of individual smaller objects that scatter isotropically. In the limit of small optical depth, incident radiation will scatter isotropically as the sum of that scattered by all the individual scatterers, but at large optical depth the radiation leaving the spherical bush in a given direction is reduced by mutual shadowing of the smaller objects. In the single scattering limit, the scattering phase function and so the albedo are obtained by simple but accurate analytic expressions derived from analytic integration and numerical evaluation. Except in the limit of thin canopies, the scattering and hence albedos are qualitatively and quantitatively different than those derived from 1-D modeling.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗

The Living With a Star Program Space Environment Testbed

This viewgraph presentation describes the objective, approach, and scope of the Living With a Star (LWS) program at the Marshall Space Flight Center. Scientists involved in the project seek to refine the understanding of space weather and the role of solar variability in terrestrial climate change. Research and the development of improved analytic methods have led to increased predictive capabilities and the improvement of environment specification models. Specifically, the Space Environment Testbed (SET) project of LWS is responsible for the implementation of improved engineering approaches to observing solar effects on climate change. This responsibility includes technology development, ground test protocol development, and the development of a technology application model/engineering tool.

Barth, Janet↗

Applications of Skylab data to land use and climatological analysis

The author has identified the following significant results. Skylab study in Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site encompassed two separate but related tasks: (1) evaluation of photographic sensors S190A and B as sources of land use data for planning and managing land resources in major metropolitan regions, and (2) evaluation of the multispectral scanner S192 used in conjunction with associated data and analytical techniques as a data source on urban climates and the surface energy balance. Photographs from the Skylab S190B earth terrain camera were of greatest interest in the land use analysis task; they were of sufficiently high resolution to identify and map many level 2 and 3 land use categories. After being corrected to allow for atmosphere effects, output from thermal and visible bands of the S192 was employed in constructing computer map plots of albedo and surface temperature.

Alexander, R. H.↗

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

DAntoni, Hector↗

From Remotely-Sensed SIF to Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service: Part I - Harnessing Theory

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a remotely sensed optical signal emitted during the light reactions of photosynthesis. The past two decades have witnessed an explosion in availability of SIF data at increasingly higher spatial and temporal resolutions, sparking applications in diverse research sectors (e.g., ecology, agriculture, hydrology, climate, and socioeconomics). These applications must deal with complexities caused by tremendous variations in scale and the impacts of interacting and superimposing plant physiology and three-dimensional vegetation structure on the emission and scattering of SIF. At present, these complexities have not been overcome. To advance future research, the two companion reviews aim to (1) develop an analytical framework for inferring terrestrial vegetation structures and function that are tied to SIF emission, (2) synthesize progress and identify challenges in SIF research via the lens of multi-sector applications, and (3) map out actionable solutions to tackle these challenges and offer our vision for research priorities over the next 5–10 years based on the proposed analytical framework. This paper is the first of the two companion reviews, and theory oriented. It introduces a theoretically rigorous yet practically applicable analytical framework. Guided by this framework, we offer theoretical perspectives on three overarching questions: (1) The forward (mechanism) question—How are the dynamics of SIF affected by terrestrial ecosystem structure and function? (2) The inference question: What aspects of terrestrial ecosystem structure, function, and service can be reliably inferred from remotely sensed SIF and how? (3) The innovation question: What innovations are needed to realize the full potential of SIF remote sensing for real-world applications under climate change? The analytical framework elucidates that process complexity must be appreciated in inferring ecosystem structure and function from the observed SIF; this framework can serve as a diagnosis and inference tool for versatile applications across diverse spatial and temporal scales.

carbon fluxes↗

Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure

The exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time-integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi-annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem-level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.

stomata↗

Mixed Layer Sub-Mesoscale Parameterization - Part 1: Derivation and Assessment

Several studies have shown that sub-mesoscales (SM 1km horizontal scale) play an important role in mixed layer dynamics. In particular, high resolution simulations have shown that in the case of strong down-front wind, the re-stratification induced by the SM is of the same order of the de-stratification induced by small scale turbulence, as well as of that induced by the Ekman velocity. These studies have further concluded that it has become necessary to include SM in ocean global circulation models (OGCMs), especially those used in climate studies. The goal of our work is to derive and assess an analytic parameterization of the vertical tracer flux under baroclinic instabilities and wind of arbitrary directions and strength. To achieve this goal, we have divided the problem into two parts: first, in this work we derive and assess a parameterization of the SM vertical flux of an arbitrary tracer for ocean codes that resolve mesoscales, M, but not sub-mesoscales, SM. In Part 2, presented elsewhere, we have used the results of this work to derive a parameterization of SM fluxes for ocean codes that do not resolve either M or SM. To carry out the first part of our work, we solve the SM dynamic equations including the non-linear terms for which we employ a closure developed and assessed in previous work. We present a detailed analysis for down-front and up-front winds with the following results: (a) down-front wind (blowing in the direction of the surface geostrophic velocity) is the most favorable condition for generating vigorous SM eddies; the de-stratifying effect of the mean flow and re-stratifying effect of SM almost cancel each other out,

Canuto, V. M.↗

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. he assessment is undertaken within the context of the evolving international landscape, in particular, developments in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the outcomes of the Kyoto Protocol and the adoption of the Paris Agreement. It reflects the increasing diversity of those involved in climate action. This report integrates the main findings of the AR6 Working Group reports and the three AR6 Special Reports. It recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development. Building on multiple analytical frameworks, including those from the physical and social sciences, this report identifies opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable using concepts of systems transitions and resilient development pathways. Different regional classification schemes4 are used for physical, social and economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature.

climate impacts↗

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

Web-based Visualization and Analytics of Petascale Data: Equity as a Tide that Lifts All Boats

Scientists generate petabytes of data daily to help uncover environmental trends or behaviors that are hard to predict. For example, understanding climate simulations based on the long-term average of temperature, precipitation, and other environmental variables is essential to predicting and establishing root causes of future undesirable scenarios and assessing possible mitigation strategies. While supercomputer centers provide a powerful infrastructure for generating petabytes of simulation output, accessing and analyzing these datasets interactively remains challenging on multiple fronts. This paper presents an approach to managing, visualizing, and analyzing petabytes of data within a browser on equipment ranging from the top NASA supercomputer to commodity hardware like a laptop. Our novel data fabric abstraction layer allows user-friendly querying of scientific information while hid-ing the complexities of dealing with file systems or cloud services.We also optimize network utilization while streaming from petas-cale repositories through state-of-the-art progressive compression algorithms. Based on this abstraction, we provide customizable dashboards that can be accessed from any device with any inter-net connection, enabling interactive visual analysis of vast amounts of data to a wide range of users - from top scientists with access to leadership-class computing environments to undergraduate students of disadvantaged backgrounds from minority-serving institutions. We focus on NASA’s use of petascale climate datasets as an example of particular societal impact and, therefore, a case where achieving equity in science participation is critical. We validate our approach by improving the ability of climate scientists to visually explore their data via two fully interactive dashboards. We further validate our approach by deploying the dashboards and simplified training materials in the classroom at a minority-serving institution.These dashboards, released in simplified form to the general public, contribute significantly to a broader push to democratize the access and use of climate data.

Data visualization↗