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DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Economy-Wide Circularity of the United States: An Input-Output Model in Mass Units

The ideal of creating closed material cycles by transforming the way we make, use and repurpose goods has become known as the circular economy. Besides its visionary appeal, material efficiency strategies central to circular economy can allow us to meet decarbonization goals that are otherwise out of reach. Production of basic materials such as cement, iron and steel and petrochemicals is one of the largest drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. Measuring circularity, and understanding its relationship with other sustainability metrics, however, is still difficult due to lack of data in mass units covering the entire economic system. Input-output (I-O) tables were originally created as a means of tracking the monetary flows that represent exchanges of goods and services within an economy, but have found additional uses in life cycle assessment and material flow accounts. In the traditional approach of environmentally extended I-O tables, emissions and energy data augment monetary flows. This approach can lead to price effects that distort physical quantities. Also, circular economy strategies and their goals relate to mass, not monetary flows. Therefore, it is best to simulate them using physical quantities. With these issues in mind, we have developed I-O tables in mass units to measure the flow of goods in the U.S. economy. This allows us to better measure how circular the economy really is, and how policy changes to affect this circularity may also affect decarbonization goals. Improving knowledge of these linkages could allow manufacturers to make changes in their production to achieve their sustainability and decarbonization targets. Our tool also provides a standard approach and public repository for data in physical units, making such data more available, useful, and meaningful. Following an established set of material flow metrics used by the European Union, we have used our tool to calculate material footprints over time differentiated by oil and gas versus other extractive industries. This approach also shows the relative trade balances of the U.S. in materials. We have developed a case study for the iron and steel sector, showing how different decarbonization scenarios affect not only economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions, but also total material use.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The inclusion of uncertainty in circularity transition modeling: A case study on wind turbine blade end-of-life management

The transition to a more circular economy (CE) is complex and hard to predict, including in sustainable energy technologies. Many sources of uncertainty make it challenging to model CE scenarios and their potential benefits. As an example, the high variability in costs and revenues of different recycling options makes future wind turbine blade recycling highly uncertain. To better understand this challenge, the circular economy, life cycle assessment and visualization (CELAVI) framework - a discrete event simulation and life cycle assessment framework - is modified to incorporate uncertainty analysis capabilities. Moreover, a 3-step procedure that covers different aspects of uncertainty in CE studies and includes a Monte-Carlo analysis is proposed. The procedure is tested in a case study on wind turbine blade recycling using CELAVI. Results highlight that grinding and landfilling costs are the most influential parameters for wind power circularity. The model's output coefficients of variation (when input parameter uncertainties are propagated) are between 92% and 384% depending on the indicator. The approach developed in this study may help researchers and decision-makers who study circularity prioritize their data collection effort. Finally, our method contributes to a mounting yet critical body of research: the measurement of uncertainty in circularity transitions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental and socio-economic Pareto-front trade-off analysis of U.S. PET packaging material in a circular economy

Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the circular economy: Lessons learned and path forward

Circular economy aims at decoupling human activities from resource use and creating wealth. However, many have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in several methodological approaches being developed to answer that question. This article analyzes and discusses the insights gained from applying agent-based modeling and simulation to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability. This article analyzes the benefits and limitations of this technology and discusses future methodology developments within the circular economy context. Moreover, six limits of the circular economy concept are used to interpret insights from the literature: thermodynamic limits, system boundary limits, limits posed by the physical scale of the economy, limits posed by path dependencies and lock-in, limits of governance and management, and limits of social and cultural definitions. Promising research avenues are to use this methodology with machine learning, industrial ecology methods, and detailed geographic information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inducing Circularly Polarized Single-Photon Emission via Chiral-Induced Spin Selectivity

One of the central aims of the field of spintronics is the control of individual electron spins to effectively manage the transmission of quantized data. One well-known mechanism for controlling electronic spin transport is the chiral-induced spin-selectivity (CISS) effect in which a helical nanostructure imparts a preferential spin orientation on the electronic transport. One potential application of the CISS effect is as a transduction pathway between electronic spin and circularly polarized light within nonreciprocal photonic devices. Here in this work, we identify and quantify the degree of chiral-induced spin-selective electronic transport in helical polyaniline films using magnetoconductive atomic force microscopy (mcAFM). We then induce circularly polarized quantum light emission from CdSe/CdS core/shell quantum dots placed on these films, demonstrating a degree of circular polarization of up to ~21%. Utilizing time-resolved photoluminescence microscopy, we measure the radiative lifetime difference associated with left- and right-handed circular polarizations of single emitters. These lifetime differences, in combination with Kelvin probe mapping of the variation of surface potential with magnetization of the substrate, help establish an energy level diagram describing the spin-dependent transport pathways that enable the circularly polarized photoluminescence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

An economic perspective of the circular bioeconomy in the food and agricultural sector

Transforming the agri-food system from a “take-make-waste”, or linear production system, to a circular bioeconomy that reduces, recycles, recovers, reuses, and regenerates wastes and transitions from fossil to biobased fuels and products is being hailed as critical for meeting a growing population’s food and fuel needs in environmentally sustainable ways. While a transformation towards a circular bioeconomy is an appealing strategy to achieve multiple environmental goals, we argue that this strategy needs to go beyond a techno-centric focus and adopt an economic value-based lens to balance the desire for circularity with its costs, benefits, and distributional effects on society. This perspective analyzes the mechanisms that sustain the existing linear economy and proposes a novel social cost-benefit framework to determine the optimal level and path to circularity. We present five critical pathways to achieve a sustainable circular bioeconomy in a market economy consisting of decentralized decision-makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

SEGUID v2: Extending SEGUID checksums for circular, linear, single- and double-stranded biological sequences

Background Synthetic biology involves combining different DNA fragments, each containing functional biological parts, to address specific problems. Fundamental gene-function research often requires cloning and propagating DNA fragments, such as those from the iGEM Parts Registry or Addgene, typically distributed as circular plasmids. Addgene’s repository alone offers around 150,000 plasmids. To ensure data integrity, cryptographic checksums can be calculated for the sequences. Each sequence has a unique checksum, making checksums useful for validation and quick lookups of associated annotations. For example, the SEGUID checksum uniquely identifies protein sequences with a 27-character string. Objectives The original SEGUID, while effective for protein sequences and single-stranded DNA (ssDNA), is not suitable for circular DNA since there is no natural starting position nor for double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) since two separate sequences are present. Challenges include how to uniquely represent linear dsDNA, circular ssDNA, and circular dsDNA. To meet these needs, we propose SEGUID v2, which extends the original SEGUID to handle additional types of sequences. Conclusions SEGUID v2 produces orientation and rotation invariant checksums for single-stranded, double-stranded, possibly staggered, linear, and circular DNA and RNA sequences. Customizable alphabets allow for other types of sequences. In contrast to the original SEGUID, which uses Base64, SEGUID v2 uses Base64url to encode the SHA-1 hash. This ensures SEGUID v2 checksums can be used as-is in filenames, regardless of platform, and in URLs, with minimal friction. Availability SEGUID v2 is readily available for major programming languages, distributed under the MIT license. JavaScript package seguid is available on npm, Python package seguid on PyPi, R package seguid on CRAN, and a Tcl script on GitHub. These tools, along with documentation, examples, and an online SEGUID Calculator , can be found at https://www.seguid.org .

Pereira, Humberto↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large Propagation-Direction-Dependent Circularly Polarized Emission and Scattering Anisotropies of a Chiral Organic-Inorganic Semiconductor

Chiral materials are important tools for transducing circularly polarized light within many emerging opto-electronic and spin-based technologies. Here, we demonstrate that thin films of a bismuth iodide-based 0D chiral hybrid organic-inorganic semiconductor (HOIS) exhibit large anisotropy values in circularly polarized light emission (CPLE) that approach 50%, with mirror-image responses from front- and back-side measurements. A comprehensive analysis of light-wave propagation, absorption, emission, and scattering is constructed on the basis of a symmetry-derived exciton fine structure model, which accurately describes the direction and polarization dependence of the observed excitonic circular dichroism and CPLE, including contributions from both photoluminescence and resonant Raman scattering. Our analysis indicates that molecular chirality drives preferential film alignment with respect to the out-of-plane lattice vector direction, producing the observed anisotropies. This first demonstration in an HOIS system provides a unique route for enhancing polarization-dependent emission, and circularly polarized light transduction more broadly, in self-assembled HOIS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermally Activated Circularly Polarized Photoluminescence in a 2D Hybrid Perovskite with Giant Spin Splitting

Circularly polarized light generation and detection are critical for future spin-based technologies that inter-convert circularly polarized photons and electron spins. However, detailed mechanisms in such spin-photon interfaces are often either poorly understood or operate at cryogenic temperatures since typically small energies separating spin-split electronic bands facilitate thermally driven spin depolarization. Recently, several 2D hybrid perovskites with polar achiral cations were theoretically demonstrated to exhibit conduction and valence band spin-splitting energies greatly exceeding room-temperature thermal energy, suggesting their utility as spin-photon interfaces with practical operating temperatures. Here, a strong "spin memory" effect is reported in such a polar achiral layered perovskite that enables large room-temperature circularly polarized emission anisotropy following excitation with circularly polarized light. The polarization anisotropy depends strongly on temperature (thermally activated), excitation energy, and crystal orientation with respect to the excitation source. Temperature-dependent photoconductance measurements reveal similar thermally activated carrier generation. These observations suggest a mechanism whereby giant in-plane splitting of single-particle levels protects spin-polarization of photogenerated electrons and holes before recombination. Although polarized light emission is explored in greater detail in chiral perovskites, these results reveal that even without chirality, large spin memory in polar achiral perovskites can enable spin-photon interfaces that operate at elevated temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Parallel Plastic‐to‐X Pathways and Their Role in a Circular Economy for PET Bottles

Abstract The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country and is a top contributor to global plastic pollution. Multiple end‐of‐life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different lifetimes and utilities. Herein, they present a material flow model equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, cost analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator that considers product quality and lifetime. The model is used to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle mechanical downcycling to lower‐quality resin, closed‐loop glycolysis to food‐grade PET, upcycling to glass fiber‐reinforced plastic, and conversion to non‐plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy‐wide basis for the year 2020. A brute force algorithm suggests that a combination of 68% glycolysis, 11% mechanical recycling, 6% upcycling, 9% landfilling, and 5% incineration can minimize the cost and GHG emissions and maximize the circularity of the current PET economy. However, uncertainty around transportation distances, materials recovery facility efficiencies, and recycling yields can result in different “optimal” pathway mixes. This flexible framework enables informed decision‐making to move toward a cost‐ and environment‐conscious circular economy for plastic.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-Powered Circularly Polarized Light Detection Enabled by Chiral Two-Dimensional Perovskites with Mixed Chiral–Achiral Organic Cations

Direct detection of circularly polarized light (CPL) holds great promise for the development of various optical technologies. Chiral 2D organic–inorganic halide perovskites make it possible to fabricate CPL-sensitive photodetectors. However, selectively detecting left-handed circularly polarized (LCP) and right-handed circularly polarized (RCP) light remains a significant challenge. Herein, we demonstrate a greatly enhanced distinguishability of photodiode-type CPL photodetectors based on chiral 2D perovskites with mixed chiral aryl (R)-(+),(S)-(–)-α-methylbenzylammonium (R,S-MBA) and achiral alkyl n-butylammonium (nBA) cations. The (R,S-MBA 0.5 nBA 0.5 ) 2 PbI 4 perovskites exhibit a 10-fold increase in circular dichroism signals compared to (R,S-MBA) 2 PbI 4 perovskites. Here, the CPL photodetectors based on the mixed-cation perovskites exhibit self-powered capabilities with a specific detectivity of 2.45 × 10 12 Jones at a o V bias. Notably, these devices show high distinguishability (gres) factors of –0.58 and +0.54 based on (R,S-MBA 0.5 nBA 0.5 ) 2 PbI 4 perovskites, respectively, surpassing the performance of (R-MBA) 2 PbI 4 -based devices by over 3-fold and setting a record for CPL detectors based on chiral 2D n = 1 perovskites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Minimum GHG emissions and energy consumption of U.S. PET and polyolefin packaging supply chains in a circular economy

There is a wide agreement on the urgency of transforming linear management of plastics towards a circular economy model. However, no clear pathways exist as to required recycling technologies involved and system-wide environmental impacts. This study explores such pathways in the U.S. for the most commonly used packaging plastics through a combination of mechanical and emerging advanced recycling technologies. A system optimization model aimed at minimizing environmental impacts was developed to determine optimal end-of-life (EOL) management and locations of existing and emerging U.S. recycling infrastructures. Our study includes material flows from virgin resin production through semi-manufacturing processes to existing EOL disposal and recycling processes. An optimized circular plastics packaging system achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings of up to 28% and cumulative energy demand (CED) savings of up to 46%, compared to the linear economy. Moreover, these savings of GHG emissions and CED impacts represent a reduction of 0.16% and 0.49% compared to annual U.S. GHG emissions and energy consumption in 2022, respectively. The optimal recycling rates and systems-level circularity ranged from 78–99% and 57–75%, respectively. Increased energy savings led to increased GHG emissions showing a potential trade-off between GHG emissions and energy. Analysis of 40 scenarios showed the importance of material collection distances, blend limit of mechanically recycled resins, process yields, and mandated recycling rates for achieving a sustainable circular economy of plastics.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Strategies for achieving circular economy goals in the lighting industry through design for disassembly- based methodologies

The significance of circular economy and its integration into core strategies for smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth, is increasingly being recognized by individuals, organisations, and nations in recent times. The term Design for Disassembly (DfD) may conjure up images about the end-of-life of a product or its disposal. However, DfD connects to numerous circularity and sustainability goals over the lifetime of a product or project and can have a large impact on the carbon footprint of the product. The DfD is a product development methodology which is in line with the vision of a circular economy, and supports increase in material efficiency, extends product lifetimes and improves recycling efficiency. Reduction of the imposed environmental risks and impact on the climate, by utilising circularity approaches such as remanufacturing, are tied to lowering of carbon footprint. This paper describes specific and actionable approaches that can be applied by luminaire manufacturers, specifiers, and other players in the lighting industry. The readers will learn about current tools and methodologies that can be used to improve iterative design, as well as measure, assess, and compare products or materials.

design for disassembly, dfd, circularity↗

DOE OSTI2024

The circular bioeconomy: a driver for system integration

Background: Human and earth system modeling, traditionally centered on the interplay between the energy system and the atmosphere, are facing a paradigm shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s mandate for comprehensive, cross-sectoral climate action emphasizes avoiding the vulnerabilities of narrow sectoral approaches. Our study explores the circular bioeconomy, highlighting the intricate interconnections among agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, technological advancements, and ecological recycling. Collectively, these sectors play a pivotal role in supplying essential resources to meet the food, material, and energy needs of a growing global population. We pose the pertinent question of what it takes to integrate these multifaceted sectors into a new era of holistic systems thinking and planning. Results: The foundation for discussion is provided by a novel graphical representation encompassing statistical data on food, materials, energy flows, and circularity. This representation aids in constructing an inventory of technological advancements and climate actions that have the potential to significantly reshape the structure and scale of the economic metabolism in the coming decades. In this context, the three dominant mega-trends—population dynamics, economic developments, and the climate crisis—compel us to address the potential consequences of the identified actions, all of which fall under the four categories of substitution, efficiency, sufficiency, and reliability measures. Substitution and efficiency measures currently dominate systems modeling. Including novel bio-based processes and circularity aspects might require only expanded system boundaries. Conversely, paradigm shifts in systems engineering are expected to center on sufficiency and reliability actions. Effectively assessing the impact of sufficiency measures will necessitate substantial progress in inter- and transdisciplinary collaboration, primarily due to their non-technological nature. In addition, placing emphasis on modeling the reliability and resilience of transformation pathways represents a distinct and emerging frontier that highlights the significance of an integrated network of networks. Conclusions: Existing and emerging circular bioeconomy practices can serve as prime examples of system integration. These practices facilitate the interconnection of complex biomass supply chain networks with other networks encompassing feedstock-independent renewable power, hydrogen, CO 2 , water, and other biotic, abiotic, and intangible resources. Elevating the prominence of these connectors will empower policymakers to steer the amplification of synergies and mitigation of tradeoffs among systems, sectors, and goals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Sustainability of Solar Modules for Energy Transition: Mass, Energy, and Circularity

Transition to a carbon-free energy system is crucial for global decarbonization and underpins Circular Economy (CE) goals. Photovoltaic (PV) technology is required for Energy Transition, but manufacturing and circular pathways can be material, energy, and carbon-intensive. Therefore, we need a prioritization of sustainability strategies for PV evolution and lifecycle management in the context of Energy Transition. This study employs a suite of quantitative metrics to compare different proposed sustainability strategies for PV modules on their ability to achieve Energy Transition. Proposals for sustainable PV range from high-yield, high-efficiency paradigms, to short-lived and fully recyclable, to long-lasting, indestructible modules. We leverage a global decarbonization deployment schedule through 2100 with the open-source PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to quantify the impacts of different evolving module design scenarios covering the range of proposed sustainability strategies. First, modules are compared on effective capacity and required replacements to meet and maintain decarbonization capacity targets through 2100. We demonstrate the effects of lifetime, degradation, and reliability on effective capacity. Next, we quantify and compare virgin material demands and lifecycle wastes, examining the impacts of lifetime and recycling rates. Finally, and critically for renewable energy technologies, we quantify the energy demands required to achieve the decarbonization capacity targets and calculate energy balance metrics (net energy, energy return on investment). These results are then summarized into a metric matrix, demonstrating tradeoffs and the importance of longevity. Our suite of mass and energy metrics provides stakeholders and decision-makers with quantitative data on circular economy choices for PV in the energy transition, enabling informed evaluation of tradeoffs of different PV module designs and CE pathways.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molecular simulation and artificial intelligence for the circular economy of bioenergy and bioproducts

The concept of the circular bioeconomy is a carbon neutral, sustainable system with zero waste. One vision for such an economy is based upon lignocellulosic biomass. This lignocellulosic circular bioeconomy requires CO 2 absorption from biomass growth and the efficient deconstruction of recalcitrant biomass into solubilized and fractionated biopolymers, which are then used as precursors for the sustainable production of high-quality liquid fuels, chemical bioproducts, and bio-based materials. Here, in this study, we summarize the roles that molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and machine learning (ML) are playing in overcoming several fundamental challenges hindering the adoption of a circular bioeconomy. Specifically, we discuss the role of MD and ML/AI in overcoming lignocellulose recalcitrance by designing biomass pretreatment methods to efficiently produce solubilized cellulose/lignin/hemicellulose and of that in improving energy-intensive manufacturing of biomass-based materials and their structural and mechanical properties. Quantum mechanical methods and MD simulations, in addition to offering a mechanistic understanding of biomass deconstruction and biomaterials design, can provide meaningful structural, energetics, and physiochemical properties as inputs to train AI/ML models. The ML models can guide the experimental prioritization of materials/solvents and process parameters that significantly accelerate the development of biofuel and biomaterial components of the circular bioeconomy.

Smith, Jeremy C. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗