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Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement (Final Report)

This report is the final technical report on Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing Engagement (ACS:DSE) project activities. The goals of the ACS:DSE project are to compile geologic, geophysical, infrastructure, and other relevant CCUS datasets for the study area and develop a geologic model of the study area; develop an online platform to serve data to stakeholders; engage with the public, students, and industry to educate them about CCUS and the data platform; and ensure energy and environmental justice is central to all aspects of the project. Datasets compiled and expanded include formation depths and elevations, digital geophysical well logs, reservoir properties, geologic structures, and geologic models. The geologic data were used to create a three-dimensional geologic model, structure grids, structure contour maps, and fault trace maps. In addition to downloadable datasets, links to CCUS relevant regulatory agencies (e.g., OGB, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) and sources for infrastructure and educational information were included on the website Educational materials on CCUS for use by K-12 teachers were produced as part of the ACS:DSE project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT

Wyoming CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and Permitting Commercial-Scale Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study at Dry Fork Station, Wyoming

This report presents the findings of the technical and non-technical site characterization and permitting activities (“Phase III”) conducted under the Wyoming CarbonSAFE: Accelerating CCUS Commercialization and Deployment at Dry Fork Power Station (DFS) and the Wyoming Integrated Test Center project (“Wyoming CarbonSAFE”). Wyoming CarbonSAFE is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (“CarbonSAFE”) Initiative. The results of Phase III demonstrate that the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project - referred to as the Northern Powder River Basin Carbon Sequestration Hub (NPRB-CSH) - meets the technical, regulatory, and commercial feasibility requirements necessary to advance toward commercial development and construction. The activities completed under this project Phase make the NPRB-CSH one of the region’s most commercially ready carbon storage sites. Completion of this Phase included the finalization of all site surface and subsurface characterization activities, completion and testing of two Class VI standard wells, 10 draft Class VI permits-to construct to address the future needs of a storage complex, finalized NEPA assessments, transportation and capture FEED studies, and a full commercialization strategy with economic modeling, operation and site closure strategies. The NPRB-CSH meets all requirements to progress to a CarbonSAFE Phase IV program or advance to full commercial operations under the development of a business partner.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Reservoir Dynamics in Proposed Operational Scenarios Where CO 2 -EOR Fields are Transitioned From CO 2 -Flood Enhanced Oil Recovery to Dedicated Carbon Storage: A Field Case Study

This study models the transition of CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) fields to dedicated carbon storage using a generalized reservoir model informed by real field data, SACROC. Through scenario-based simulations, the work evaluates how reservoir depletion levels, boundary conditions, fluid properties, and domain size affect pressure buildup, CO 2 plume migration, and long-term containment performance. The results inform practices for repurposing oil fields into reliable CO 2 storage sites.

02 PETROLEUM

Cement and concrete as carbon sinks: Transforming a climate challenge into a carbon storage opportunity

Cement and concrete, while traditionally recognized as the main contributors to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, also have untapped capacity to serve as substantial and scalable carbon sinks. This perspective examines how engineered mineral carbonation can transform cement-based materials into functional carbon storage systems, generating both environmental and economic value. We review the fundamental mechanisms of CO 2 uptake in cementitious systems, highlighting current limitations in reaction kinetics, phase control, and durability under varying environmental conditions. Emphasis is placed on the utilization of alkaline industrial residues and emerging magnesium-based cements, which offer synergistic pathways for carbon sequestration and circular resource use. We further assess the performance trade-offs associated with CO 2 uptake and the feasibility of deploying these technologies on industrial scales. A strategic roadmap is proposed that integrates scientific innovation, regulatory alignment, and carbon accounting in the life cycle to accelerate the adoption of carbon-storing concrete. This perspective provides a comprehensive framework to advance cement and concrete as engineered carbon sinks and supports the transition to a climate-positive construction industry.

Carbon storage

A Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin: Community Baseline Assessment for Carbon Storage Engagement Planning in the Illinois Basin

This report presents a stakeholder mapping analysis conducted as part of the Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin project (DOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0032366). The analysis was undertaken to systematically identify, categorize, and characterize stakeholder groups and community conditions relevant to the planning and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure across the Illinois Basin. Its purpose is to establish a contextual baseline that informs targeted engagement strategies, supports equitable project planning, and strengthens the social dimensions of CCS site screening.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING

The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

carbon capture and storage

Carbon Storage in Fold‐and‐Thrust Belts: An Overlooked Gigatonne Storage Opportunity

This study presents numerical investigations of the trapping characteristics of fold-and-thrust belt structures, defining three carbon capture and storage (CCS) play types that could be used to store commercial volumes (millions of tonnes) of CO 2 . Specifically, we present simulations of CO 2 storage in three fold-and-thrust belt models comprising a thrust-ramp, duplex, and thrust-fold geometry. To constrain these play types in realistic geology, each model is based on a study site, including a novel investigation of a greenfield saline reservoir in Virginia, USA, being considered for commercial carbon storage and two well-characterized petroleum fields: the Wilburton field in Oklahoma, USA, and the Incahuasi field in Bolivia. Our results provide insight into several key parameters, such as the long-term security of injected CO 2 in these geologies and injection strategies for maximizing storage efficiency while reducing pressure-related risk. These results improve the understanding of CCS in fold-and-thrust belt storage sites globally by describing general storage parameters that may be applied to site-specific projects. We find that thrust-ramp geometries may securely trap CO 2 through solubility and hydrodynamic trapping under suitable reservoir conditions, duplex structures may store some quantities of CO 2 but are pressure-constrained, and that thrust-ramp structures may store large quantities of CO 2 by maximizing fetch volume, which simultaneously lowers geomechanical risk by reducing pressure buildup along zones of weakness.

42 ENGINEERING

Polk Carbon Storage Complex CarbonSAFE Phase 3 (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report summarizes the workplan, technical progress, and high-level findings for the Polk Carbon Storage Complex (PCSC) CarbonSAFE Phase III project. The project was designed to advance a commercial-scale geologic CO 2 storage by drilling and completing two characterization wells to strengthen an already-submitted Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permit application, acquiring new subsurface data, advancing National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements, progressing CO 2 transportation engineering, and developing commercial and community engagement frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Can section 45Q tax credit foster decarbonization? A case study of geologic carbon storage at Acid Gas Injection wells in the Permian Basin

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is an important pathway for meeting climate mitigation goals. While the economic viability of CCUS is well understood, previous studies do not evaluate the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Permian Basin specifically regarding the new Section 45Q tax credits. We developed a technoeconomic analysis method, evaluated the economic feasibility of CCS at the acid gas injection (AGI) wells, and assessed the implication of Section 45Q tax credits for CCS at the AGIs. We find that the compressors, well depth, and the permit and monitoring costs drive the facility costs. Compressors are the predominant contributors to capital and operating expenditure driving the levelized cost of CO 2 storage. Strategic cost reduction measures identified include 1) sourcing of low-cost electricity and 2) optimizing operational efficiency in well operations. In evaluating the impact of the tax credits on CCS projects, facility scale proved decisive. We found that facilities with an annual injection rate exceeding 10,000 MT storage capacity demonstrate economic viability contingent upon the procurement of inputs at the least cost. The new construction of AGI wells were found to be economically viable at a storage capacity of 100,000 MT. The basin is heavily focused on CCUS (tax credit – $\$$65/MT CO 2 ), which overshadows CCS ($\$$85/MT CO 2 ) opportunities. Balancing the dual objectives of CCS and CCUS requires planning and coordination for optimal resource and pore space utilization to attain the basin's decarbonization potential. We also found that CCS on AGI is a lower cost CCS option as compared to CCS on other industries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Code associated with "Assessing the Effect of a Deep-Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights from a Multi-Site US Study"

R code associated with "Assessing the Effect of a Deep-Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights from a Multi-Site US Study" These scripts can be used to analyze the accompanying dataset: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16620529. (1) resampling_functions.R : Creates functions for resampling data for nonparametric bootstrapping (2) bootstrap_depth_profiles.R : Applies resampling functions to the dataset (3) gapfill_masscalcs.R : Prepares data for equivalent mass calculations (4) get_14C_EM.R : Applies soilR to obtain the 14C end member for mixing model calculations (5) mass_aggregate.R : Performs equivalent mass and mass weighted averaging calculations.

Carbon

Time-Lapse Electromagnetic Methods for Monitoring Plume Development in a Carbon Storage Reservoir

Conference presentation at International Meeting for Applied Geoscience & Energy (IMAGE), Houston, Texas, August 25–28, 2025. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) is leading applied research on electromagnetic (EM) monitoring methods at an active carbon storage site in North Dakota. Injection operations at the site began in February 2024, with a permitted injection rate of up to 2.7 million tonnes of CO 2 annually using six injection wells. CO 2 is captured on-site and injected into the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer located at a depth of approximately 1800 meters. The EERC led acquisition of multiple active- and passive-source EM techniques between August and October of 2024 to provide a thorough understanding of the resistivity profile at the site.

02 PETROLEUM

Deep Learning-based Surrogate Model for Efficient Reservoir Simulation in Large-scale Geological Carbon Storage: Application in IBDP Dataset

This project introduces an advanced deep learning (DL)-based surrogate modeling approach to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of large-scale geological carbon storage (GCS) simulations. Using the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset as training data, the study employs a residual U-Net architecture to predict critical state variables such as pressure and CO₂ saturation, as well as CO₂ plume migration. By incorporating key geological parameters (e.g., porosity, permeability, and rock facies) and physics-informed inputs like the diffusive time of flight and time step, the DL model effectively reduces computational complexity while maintaining robust physical constraints. Compared to traditional simulators like Eclipse, the DL model achieves remarkable accuracy, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.57 psi for pressure and 0.007 for saturation, and dramatically reduces computational time from hours to just 69.9 seconds for 50-step simulations. These results demonstrate the potential of innovative DL methodologies to improve the predictivity and operational efficiency of GCS simulations, providing a reliable foundation for decision-making in CCS operations. Supported by the SMART initiative, this project underscores the success of leveraging computational innovations to advance CCS technologies.

advanced deep learning

Reduced Erosion Augments Soil Carbon Storage Under Cover Crops

ABSTRACT Cover crops, a promising strategy to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in croplands and mitigate climate change, have typically been shown to benefit soil carbon (C) storage from increased plant C inputs. However, input‐driven C benefits may be augmented by the reduction of C outputs induced by cover crops, a process that has been tested by individual studies but has not yet been synthesized. Here we quantified the impact of cover crops on organic C loss via soil erosion (SOC erosion) and revealed the geographical variability at the global scale. We analyzed the field data from 152 paired control and cover crop treatments from 57 published studies worldwide using meta‐analysis and machine learning. The meta‐analysis results showed that cover crops widely reduced SOC erosion by an average of 68% on an annual basis, while they increased SOC stock by 14% (0–15 cm). The absolute SOC erosion reduction ranged from 0 to 18.0 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 and showed no correlation with the SOC stock change that varied from −8.07 to 22.6 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 at 0–15 cm depth, indicating the latter more likely related to plant C inputs. The magnitude of SOC erosion reduction was dominantly determined by topographic slope. The global map generated by machine learning showed the relative effectiveness of SOC erosion reduction mainly occurred in temperate regions, including central Europe, central‐east China, and Southern South America. Our results highlight that cover crop‐induced erosion reduction can augment SOC stock to provide additive C benefits, especially in sloping and temperate croplands, for mitigating climate change.

Huang, Wenjuan [Department of Ecology, Evolution,

Deep Learning-based Parameterization of Complex 3D CO2 Saturation Data in Large-scale Geological Carbon Storage

In deep learning (DL), dimension reduction plays a pivotal role in improving training efficiency and minimizing overfitting, especially when working with complex datasets like three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. In the context of geological carbon storage (GCS), 3D saturation data introduces unique challenges due to its sparse nature and sharp transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To tackle these challenges, we developed a novel DL framework that combines dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our approach utilizes latent variables derived from 2D average saturation fields to efficiently capture the essential features of high-dimensional data while reducing the number of variables. This enhances both the robustness and accuracy of DL models, making the framework more practical for real-world applications. By offering a tailored solution for modeling complex 3D saturation dynamics, this framework holds significant potential for environmental monitoring, energy storage, and other geological applications.

Wang, Hongsheng [University of Texas at Austin]