Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “capacity change”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

First principles calculations in support of Pu aging: calculating the effects of lattice imperfections on thermodynamics

Plutonium (Pu) has, in theory, well defined crystal structures: its atoms are arranged in regular spatial patterns. But Pu is radioactive, and as its nuclei decay those regular spatial patterns are interrupted. The interruptions are lattice imperfections, which are known to affect how materials respond to their environment. To adequately model Pu, we need to know which lattice imperfections are present, how they interact with each other, and how they affect the material’s response to its environment. The work presented here aims to use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to begin to answer the latter, in particular, how individual lattice imperfections affect measurable effects including thermal expansion (the change in volume in response to a change in temperature), heat capacity (the amount of thermal energy needed to change a material’s temperature), and elastic moduli (a material’s resistance to applied stresses). Pu poses many computational challenges. The $\textit{f}$ electrons require special attention. Of all the elements, Pu has the largest number of electrons that must be included in the calculations. Thermal effects require calculating the phonons (the lattice vibrations), which for systems containing lattice imperfections demand large, complex computational cells - but computational resources limit the size and complexity. With careful restructuring of how the calculations are performed, all these challenges have been met to enable calculations that provide insight into how lattice imperfections affect Pu’s response to its environment. Reported here are the computational challenges and the advances developed to meet them, along with the first results showing the strong effect that one prototype lattice imperfection (an interstitial Pu atom in a delta-phase Pu lattice) has on Pu’s response to its environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrahigh-Capacity Rocksalt Cathodes Enabled by Cycling-Activated Structural Changes

Mn-redox-based oxides and oxyfluorides are considered the most promising earth-abundant high-energy cathode materials for next-generation lithium-ion batteries. While high capacities are obtained in high-Mn content cathodes such as Li- and Mn-rich layered and spinel-type materials, local structure changes and structural distortions ( often lead to voltage fade, capacity decay, and impedance rise, resulting in unacceptable electrochemical performance upon cycling. In the present study, structural transformations that exploit the high capacity of Mn-rich oxyfluorides while enabling stable cycling, in stark contrast to commonly observed structural changes that result in rapid performance degradation, are reported. Here, it is shown that upon cycling of a cation-disordered rocksalt (DRX) cathode (Li 1.1 Mn 0.8 Ti 0.1 O 1.9 F 0.1 , an ultrahigh capacity of ≈320 mAh g –1 (energy density of ≈900 Wh kg –1 ) can be obtained through dynamic structural rearrangements upon cycling , along with a unique voltage profile evolution and capacity rise. At high voltage, the presence of Mn 4+ and Li + vacancies promotes local cation ordering, leading to the formation of domains of a “δ phase” within the disordered framework. On deep discharge, Mn 4+ reduction, along with Li + insertion transform the structure to a partially ordered DRX phase with a β'-LiFeO 2 -type arrangement. At the nanoscale, domains of the in situ formed phases are randomly oriented, allowing highly reversible structural changes and stable electrochemical cycling. These new insights not only help explain the superior electrochemical performance of high-Mn DRXbut also provide guidance for the future development of Mn-based, high-energy density oxide, and oxyfluoride cathode materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the eco‐evolutionary response of microbiomes to environmental change

Abstract Microorganisms are the primary engines of biogeochemical processes and foundational to the provisioning of ecosystem services to human society. Free‐living microbial communities (microbiomes) and their functioning are now known to be highly sensitive to environmental change. Given microorganisms' capacity for rapid evolution, evolutionary processes could play a role in this response. Currently, however, few models of biogeochemical processes explicitly consider how microbial evolution will affect biogeochemical responses to environmental change. Here, we propose a conceptual framework for explicitly integrating evolution into microbiome–functioning relationships. We consider how microbiomes respond simultaneously to environmental change via four interrelated processes that affect overall microbiome functioning (physiological acclimation, demography, dispersal and evolution). Recent evidence in both the laboratory and the field suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics occur simultaneously within microbiomes; however, the implications for biogeochemistry under environmental change will depend on the timescales over which these processes contribute to a microbiome's response. Over the long term, evolution may play an increasingly important role for microbially driven biogeochemical responses to environmental change, particularly to conditions without recent historical precedent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards mapping biodiversity from above: Can fusing lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing predict taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic tree diversity in temperate forests?

Abstract Aim Rapid global change is impacting the diversity of tree species and essential ecosystem functions and services of forests. It is therefore critical to understand and predict how the diversity of tree species is spatially distributed within and among forest biomes. Satellite remote sensing platforms have been used for decades to map forest structure and function but are limited in their capacity to monitor change by their relatively coarse spatial resolution and the complexity of scales at which different dimensions of biodiversity are observed in the field. Recently, airborne remote sensing platforms making use of passive high spectral resolution (i.e., hyperspectral) and active lidar data have been operationalized, providing an opportunity to disentangle how biodiversity patterns vary across space and time from field observations to larger scales. Most studies to date have focused on single sites and/or one sensor type; here we ask how multiple sensor types from the National Ecological Observatory Network’s Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) perform across multiple sites in a single biome at the NEON field plot scale (i.e., 40 m × 40 m). Location Eastern USA. Time period 2017–2018. Taxa studied Trees. Methods With a fusion of hyperspectral and lidar data from the NEON AOP, we assess the ability of high resolution remotely sensed metrics to measure biodiversity variation across eastern US temperate forests. We examine how taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic measures of alpha diversity vary spatially and assess to what degree remotely sensed metrics correlate with in situ biodiversity metrics. Results Models using estimates of forest function, canopy structure, and topographic diversity performed better than models containing each category alone. Our results show that canopy structural diversity, and not just spectral reflectance, is critical to predicting biodiversity. Main conclusions We found that an approach that jointly leverages spectral properties related to leaf and canopy functional traits and forest health, lidar derived estimates of forest structure, fine‐resolution topographic diversity, and careful consideration of biogeographical differences within and among biomes is needed to accurately map biodiversity variation from above.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Light-induced switchable adsorption in azobenzene- and stilbene-based porous materials

Despite the long history of porous materials as adsorbates, fundamental limitations remain regarding the efficient capture and release of the gas molecules, with the working capacity of the material often overlooked. In microporous materials, the uptake is dominated by low-pressure adsorption, with much of this being at pressures below the minimum working threshold for many gas utilization processes. Thus, research has focused on several advances in porous materials, including photoresponsive organic units for light-induced switchable adsorption. This process utilizes light to trigger structural or electronic changes, alter the gas uptake, and change the working capacity. Additionally, while a relatively recent development, there is a significant body of research regarding the use of light to control gas storage performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Bulk Oxygen Capacity and Transient Redox Behavior of Foamed Lanthanum Strontium Manganese Perovskites

Synthesis of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production redox materials with engineered structures, for example, replica foams, can enable efficient heat and mass transport and are critical for scaled-up systems. Prior work has motivated the use of lanthanum strontium manganese (LSM)-type perovskites as foamed STCH materials, but the effect of their morphology on bulk and kinetic behavior has not been reported. In this work, replica and direct foamed samples of La 0.65 Sr 0.35 MnO 3-δ (LSM35) were fabricated and compared to synthesized powders and dense monoliths, and similarly synthesized CeO 2-δ (ceria) foams, regarding their specific reaction rates and bulk oxygen capacity/H 2 yields. Changes in oxygen capacity (Δδ) and reaction rates were measured between 1200 °C and 1400 °C by using fixed ratios of steam and hydrogen during both reduction and oxidation steps, allowing for analysis under practical high conversion conditions. Results suggest bulk behavior and reaction rates of the foamed LSM materials are comparable to their powder analogues. Differences in reaction rates were observed only when replica foamed samples were subjected to rapid laser heating (emulating conditions expected in solar furnaces), which is expected but has not been demonstrated at such a small scale. Here, foamed samples were further subjected to 50 redox cycles at 1400 °C to evaluate their stability. Results show no statistically significant decrease in hydrogen production for any of the foamed samples, but the direct foamed samples became brittle with time. Together, these results demonstrate the viability of replica foamed LSM perovskites for integration in scaled-up STCH systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Insights into the High‐Performance Black Phosphorus Anode for Lithium‐Ion Batteries

Abstract Black phosphorus (BP) is a promising anode material in lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs) owing to its high electrical conductivity and capacity. However, the huge volume change of BP during cycling induces rapid capacity fading. In addition, the unclear electrochemical mechanism of BP hinders the development of rational designs and preparation of high‐performance BP‐based anodes. Here, a high‐performance nanostructured BP–graphite–carbon nanotubes composite (BP/G/CNTs) synthesized using ball‐milling method is reported. The BP/G/CNTs anode delivers a high initial capacity of 1375 mA h g −1 at 0.15 A g −1 and maintains 1031.7 mA h g −1 after 450 cycles. Excellent high‐rate performance is demonstrated with a capacity of 508.1 mA h g −1 after 3000 cycles at 2 A g −1 . Moreover, for the first time, direct evidence is provided experimentally to present the electrochemical mechanism of BP anodes with three‐step lithiation and delithiation using ex situ X‐ray diffraction (XRD), ex situ X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), ex situ X‐ray emission spectroscopy, operando XRD, and operando XAS, which reveal the formation of Li 3 P 7 , LiP, and Li 3 P. Furthermore, the study indicates an open‐circuit relaxation effect of the electrode with ex situ and operando XAS analyses.

Li, Minsi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing the techno-economic impacts of partial string failure in multistring energy storage systems

The role of energy storage systems (ESSs) is becoming increasingly important for today’s electric power systems. Unavailability of an ESS assigned to critical grid services may cause unwanted disruption of those services and hence, may have a significant techno-economic impact. Like any physical equipment, an ESS is vulnerable to various types of faults. Failure of one or more strings in a multistring ESS does not have to be the cause of shutting down the entire ESS. It can still operate with a partial number of strings and continue providing critical services to the grid, if there are no reliability or safety issues and is acceptable under applicable standards. However, it is important to make sure that the control strategies are adaptable to the changes in ESS capacity caused by failed strings. Also, depending on the previous operation and type of failure, the reallocation of duty cycle burden among available strings could be non-uniform. These complexities suggest that mitigation of the impact of partial failure in multistring ESSs is not trivial and needs careful consideration. This is the topic of this paper. The proposed work investigates the impact of partial failure of a large multistring ESS on the assigned service and develops strategies to adjust the ESS control duty cycles for reducing such impacts. In doing so, the paper proposes a novel two-stage framework that plans for the multistring failure using robust optimization theory and then adjusts in real-time using a rule-based algorithm, based on the real-time information on the power availability of the string. Illustrations provided in this work are based on frequency regulation use-case, which is a common application for many utility-scale ESSs. A 750 kilowatt (kW)/1500 kilowatt-hour (kWh) 3-string ESS is used for the demonstration in this work and the efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated and compared against methods that do not incorporate string failure in their strategy. In particular, here we show that revenue loss of 93% can be incurred when partial string failure is not included in operation and planning. These losses in revenue are reduced by 60% with the proposed method.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrocatalytic grafting of polyvinyl chloride plastics

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics require high loadings of plasticizers and stabilizers to achieve commercially useful bulk properties. However, these non-covalent additives leach from PVC over time, resulting in the loss of their tailored functionality. This work details the electrocatalytic functionalization of PVC to covalently graft plasticizing additives directly onto the polymer backbone. Here, mechanistic insights guided the design of electrocatalysts capable of modifying C–Cl bonds of PVC under mild conditions with high selectivity while suppressing side reactions such as elimination and chain scission. Functional groups that mimic PVC plasticizers are covalently installed into the backbone of PVC to create new materials with distinct bulk properties from the original polymer. The degree of polymer grafting is easily controlled by simply changing the redox capacity that is passed during electrolysis. This strategy is employed to create chemically- and leach-resistant PVC materials by directly electrolyzing mixtures of consumer PVC products

Zackasee, Jordan L.S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking soil phosphorus with forest litterfall resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance: A pantropical meta-analysis

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m 2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m 2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m 2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

RectifHydPlus: Forty Year Hydropower Generation Reanalysis for Conterminous United States, Version 1.1.

This dataset contains monthly hydropower net-generation totals for 590 plants (each >10 MW) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2019. RectifHydPlus v1.1 includes one harmonized table of historical monthly generation—backfilled with observed monthly values where available—and two companion tables: (i) an estimates-only version with no backfill and (ii) a hydrological-control version that removes the effects of capacity and operational change. Each table comprises 23,600 records (590 plants × 40 years). The dataset was developed to address temporal gaps and inconsistencies in publicly available hydropower generation data as available through EIA-923 survey reports. Each record includes a quality label denoting the underlying proxy—from best (direct reservoir releases) to weakest (pattern copied from similar years). By combining the agency-reported survey records with observed and simulated hydrologic releases, RectifHydPlus offers complete, quality-labeled monthly estimates suitable for trend analysis and generation of hydropower generation inputs for energy-water modeling.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Importance of Modeling Carbon Dioxide Transportation and Geologic Storage in Energy System Planning Tools

Energy system planning tools suggest that the cost and feasibility of climate-stabilizing energy transitions are sensitive to the cost of CO 2 capture and storage processes (CCS), but the representation of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage in these tools is often simple or non-existent. We develop the capability of producing dynamic-reservoir-simulation-based geologic CO 2 storage supply curves with the Sequestration of CO 2 Tool (SCO 2 T) and use it with the ReEDS electric sector planning model to investigate the effects of CO 2 transportation and geologic storage representation on energy system planning tool results. We use a locational case study of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Our results suggest that the cost of geologic CO 2 storage may be as low as $3/tCO 2 and that site-level assumptions may affect this cost by several dollars per tonne. At the grid level, the cost of geologic CO 2 storage has generally smaller effects compared to other assumptions (e.g., natural gas price), but small variations in this cost can change results (e.g., capacity deployment decisions) when policy renders CCS marginally competitive. The cost of CO 2 transportation generally affects the location of geologic CO 2 storage investment more than the quantity of CO 2 captured or the location of electricity generation investment. We conclude with a few recommendations for future energy system researchers when modeling CCS. For example, assuming a cost for geologic CO 2 storage (e.g., $5/tCO 2 ) may be less consequential compared to assuming free storage by excluding it from the model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for: Miscanthus × giganteus changes soil structure and increases maximum water holding capacity

The data provided include results from a comparative study evaluating the impact of Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) versus maize on soil structural properties and maximum water holding capacity (MWHC) across two Iowa sites. The dataset includes MWHC values determined using the Funnel Filter Paper Drainage (FFPD) method, as well as additional measurements of MWHC following structural disruption of the soil to isolate the effect of aggregation. It also contains three-dimensional micro-computed tomography (microCT) data used to quantify total porosity and pore size distribution (PSD) of soil aggregates at a 5 µm resolution. All data are provided as raw replicate-level measurements, organized by site, crop, and depth, along with processed summary files in table form in CSV (.csv) format to support reproducibility and downstream analysis.

Misanthus x giganteus↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drought–induced increase in tree mortality and corresponding decrease in the carbon sink capacity of Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020

Canada's boreal forests, which occupy approximately 30% of boreal forests world wide, play an important role in the global carbon budget. However, there is lit tle quantitative information available regarding the spatiotemporal changes in the drought-induced tree mortality of Canada's boreal forests overall and their associ ated impacts on biomass carbon dynamics. Here, we develop spatiotemporally ex plicit estimates of drought-induced tree mortality and corresponding biomass carbon sink capacity changes in Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020. We show that the average annual tree mortality rate is approximately 2.7%. Approximately 43% of Canada's boreal forests have experienced significantly increasing tree mortality trends (71% of which are located in the western region of the country), and these trends have accelerated since 2002. This increase in tree mortality has resulted in sig nificant biomass carbon losses at an approximate rate of 1.51±0.29 MgC ha -1 year -1 (95% confidence interval) with an approximate total loss of 0.46±0.09 PgC year -1 (95% confidence interval). Under the drought condition increases predicted for this century, the capacity of Canada's boreal forests to act as a carbon sink will be further reduced, potentially leading to a significant positive climate feedback effect

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗