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DOE OSTI2022

Using remote sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects

Abstract Nature‐based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap‐and‐trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing‐based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar “control” lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid‐1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low‐timber‐value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre‐enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗

DOE OSTI2026

2013 California Vehicle Survey

The 2013 California Vehicle Survey (CVS) collected data on household and commercial vehicle usage, and on future vehicle purchases. ICF International conducted the survey on behalf of the California Energy Commission. Approximately 8,000 respondents, from California households and businesses, completed the survey. The household component of the CVS included a selection of households from the 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS), who had stated their intention to purchase a vehicle in the near future. Both household surveys used the same survey ID numbers enabling the integration of responses. The commercial vehicle component of the CVS—a stand-alone survey of commercial fleet owners in California—asked vehicle owners questions pertaining to economic and demographic attributes, current fleets, and preferences about planned vehicle purchases.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the PACE of household energy usage: Energy usage impacts of projects financed through Property Assessed Clean Energy programs in California

This report examines the household-level energy impacts of residential property assessed clean energy (R-PACE) projects using normalized metered energy consumption methods. Our analysis covers projects that occurred through an R-PACE program between 2009 and 2017 and includes more than 25,000 electricity meters and 15,000 gas meters. We employ a comparison group, drawn from other R-PACE households with similar locational and usage characteristics whose projects were implemented at different times, to control for some non-project and non-weather factors that may impact energy use. We find that projects consisting of energy efficiency technologies save, on average, about 3% of household electricity usage and 3.5% of household gas usage. R-PACE financing, however, can be used to install central heating or air conditioning equipment for the first time. These projects would be expected to increase energy consumption. Since our data do not directly indicate which projects are new installations, we develop a simple algorithm for identifying them. Removing these inferred installation projects yields average savings of about 5% for electricity and 6% for gas for those households that remain in the sample. Given the mild California climate and the results of another study of similar California projects using similar methods, these results are in line with expectations. Solar PV projects yield large reductions in grid electricity use, averaging 69% of household consumption. We estimate that, collectively, all R-PACE projects installed in California through 2019 would generate annual reductions in grid-tied electricity consumption of 506 GWh (mostly due to solar PV) and gas consumption reductions of 2 million therms in a normal weather year. These impacts are equivalent to the electricity consumption of about 74,000 California households (including both efficiency and PV generation) and the gas consumption of about 4700 California households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Hydrogen Production and Electricity Markets: Analytical Insights from California

This report compares the cost of different pathways for producing hydrogen in California. In addition to capturing the current cost of electrolyzers and other equipment, the pathways apply current retail electricity tariff options offered by utilities Southern California Edison (SCE), Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). The analysis also tests the cost of combining hydrogen production with utility-scale wind or solar generation in California. Scenarios examine current costs as well as projections for 2030. The cost benchmark - a relatively low electrolytic hydrogen production cost - is based on the wholesale price of electricity used by a theoretical hydrogen production plant connected directly to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) transmission system. California law currently prohibits this approach in CAISO, but it is permissible in other organized wholesale electricity markets. The cost for producing hydrogen under 2019 conditions in this theoretical case was approximately $3/kg. Different scenarios are used to examine current costs, e.g., 2019, as well as projections for 2030.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study

Abstract Electricity and water systems are inextricably linked through water demands for energy generation, and through energy demands for using, moving, and treating water and wastewater. Climate change may stress these interdependencies, together referred to as the energy-water nexus, by reducing water availability for hydropower generation and by increasing irrigation and electricity demand for groundwater pumping, among other feedbacks. Further, many climate adaptation measures to augment water supplies—such as water recycling and desalination—are energy-intensive. However, water and electricity system climate vulnerabilities and adaptations are often studied in isolation, without considering how multiple interactive risks may compound. This paper reviews the fragmented literature and develops a generalized framework for understanding these implications of climate change on the energy-water nexus. We apply this framework in a case study to quantify end-century direct climate impacts on California’s water and electricity resources and estimate the magnitude of the indirect cross-sectoral feedback of electricity demand from various water adaptation strategies. Our results show that increased space cooling demand and decreased hydropower generation are the most significant direct climate change impacts on California’s electricity sector by end-century. In California’s water sector, climate change impacts directly on surface water availability exceed demand changes, but have considerable uncertainty, both in direction and magnitude. Additionally, we find that the energy demands of water sector climate adaptations could significantly affect California’s future electricity system needs. If the worst-case water shortage occurs under climate change, water-conserving adaptation measures can provide large energy savings co-benefits, but other energy-intensive water adaptations may double the direct impacts of climate change on the state’s electricity resource requirement. These results highlight the value of coordinated adaptation planning between the energy and water sectors to achieve mutually beneficial solutions for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calcium is associated with specific soil organic carbon decomposition products at Blodgett Forest Research Center, Georgetown, California as analysed with scanning transmission X-ray microscopy carbon near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy

This data is from the paper calcium is associated with specific soil organic carbon decomposition products, published in SOIL. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-381-2025, 2025.This file contains CSVs with spectral data and bulk soil data and there is no specific program required to open this data. The data includes Scanning transmission X-ray microscopy carbon near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy. data from the measurement of samples from the Whole-soil Warming project, run by the Belowground Biogeochemistry team at Blodgett Forest Research Center, Georgetown, California run by the University of California, Berkeley. It also includes bulk soil chemical properties. The University of California's Blodgett Forest Research Station (Forest) is situated in the Sierra Nevada foothills (1370 m a.s.l.) near Georgetown, California. The samples were collected from here: 38.912013, -120.661469, https://maps.app.goo.gl/291bCJ1zVqUhgktz6. The Forest soils were characterised as Alfisols, which are equivalent to Dystric Cambisols (IUSS Working Group WRB, 2015), and formed in granitic parent materials, in a temperate climate, under thinned, mixed-coniferous forest (Fig. S3; Gaudinski et al., 2009). With these analyses we aimed to answer the question, is calcium associated with a specific type of organic matter enriched in aromatic and phenolic carbon at the microscale in samples from Blodgett Forest Research Center? and how does this specific type of carbon respond to experiments targetted at removing and adding calcium to the soils, specifically cation exchange and incubation after calcium addition? Abstract from the paper can be found below: Calcium (Ca) may contribute to the preservation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in more ecosystems than previously thought. Here we provide evidence that Ca is co-located with SOC compounds that are enriched in aromatic and phenolic groups, across different acidic soil-types and locations with different ecosystem properties, differing in terms of climate, parent material, soil type, and vegetation. In turn, this co-localised fraction of Ca-SOC is removed through cation-exchange, and the association is then only re-established during decomposition in the presence of Ca (Ca addition incubation). Thus, highlighting a causative link between decomposition and the co-location of Ca with a characteristic fraction of SOC. Decomposition increases the relative proportion of negatively charged functional groups, which can increase the propensity for the association between SOC and Ca, and in turn, this association inhibits dissolved organic carbon export or further decomposition. We propose that this mechanism could be driven by Ca hotspots on the microscale shifting local decomposition processes and thereby explaining the colocation of Ca with SOC of a specific composition across different acidic soil environments. Incorporating this biogeochemical process into Earth System Models could improve our understanding, predictions, and management of carbon dynamics in soils, and account for their response to Ca-rich amendments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive Review of California's Innovative Clean Transit Regulation: Phase I Summary Report

This report–prepared by NREL and UC Berkeley for the California Air Resources Board (CARB)–provides a comprehensive review conducted for implementation of the Innovative Clean Transit (ICT) regulation and deployment of zero-emission transit buses in California. The ICT regulation requires California transit agencies to begin transitioning to zero-emission vehicle technologies, defining an increasing percentage of new bus purchases that must be zero-emission buses (ZEBs) each year. The purchase requirements begin in 2023, increasing to a 100% ZEB purchase requirement beginning in 2029. This schedule is designed to result in 100% ZEB fleets statewide by 2040. The focus of the Phase I study was on implementation progress, status of standard-size transit buses, and the California transit industry's readiness to meet the 2023 ICT purchase requirements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI1978

Plant Engineers Solar Energy Handbook: Southern California Region

Discussed in order after the introduction are solar components and systems (collectors, storage, service hot water systems, space heating with liquid and air systems, space cooling, heat pumps and controls); computer programs for system optimization; local solar and weather data; a description of buildings and plants in Southern California applying solar technology; current Federal and California solar legislation; standards, codes and performance testing information; a listing of manufacturers, distributors, and professional services available in Southern California region; and information access. Finally, solar design check lists for those engineers who wish to design their own systems. The program for the Solar Workshop for the Plant Engineer, March 30, 1978, Los Angeles, California is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The anaerobic fungus Neocallimastix californiae shifts metabolism and produces melanin in response to lignin-derived aromatic compounds

Biological deconstruction of lignocellulose for sustainable chemical production offers an opportunity to harness evolutionarily specialized enzymes and organisms for industrial bioprocessing. While hydrolysis of cellulose and hemicellulose by CAZymes yields fermentable sugars, ligninolysis releases a heterogeneous mix of aromatic compounds that likely play a crucial role in shaping microbial communities and microbial metabolism. Here, we interrogated the metabolomic and transcriptomic response of a lignocellulolytic anaerobic fungus, Neocallimastix californiae, to a heterogeneous mixture of aromatic compounds derived from lignin. Through exposing the fungus to both a concentration it might experience in its native environment and an elevated concentration of alkaline lignin, we observe that N. californiae transforms vanillin and that supplying alkaline lignin at 0.125 g/L, alongside cellulose, enhances the growth and polysaccharide-degrading activity of N. californiae. Altogether, our results further suggest that vanillin consumption, increased polymer-degrading activity, increased metabolic activity, and transcriptomic remodeling of amino acid synthesis genes all coincide with increased melanin production by fungal cells. These observations challenge previous notions that aromatics from lignocellulose only inhibit the growth and polymer deconstruction capabilities of the biomass-degrading anaerobic fungi (Neocallimastigomycetes). This study demonstrates that anaerobic fungi have a complex relationship with aromatic chemicals derived from lignin and hemicellulose and shift their metabolism in response to the addition of lignocellulose-derived aromatics to their growth medium. Further, as no known pathways for the biochemical transformation of aromatics were detected in these organisms despite observed transcriptome remodeling in the presence of aromatics, we suggest they might encode novel biochemical routes for scavenging amino acid building blocks from aromatic monomers derived from hemicellulose side chains and lignin.

Anaerobic fungi↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Low-Carbon Energy Adoption on Airborne Particulate Matter Concentrations With Feedbacks to Future Climate Over California

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. Furthermore, the avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-Step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top-of-atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m -2 , surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order-of-magnitude comparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5–RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO 2 are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Distinct Atmospheric Mode for California Precipitation

The hydrologic cycle in California is strongly influenced by wet-season (November–April) precipitation. Here, we demonstrate the existence of an influential mode of North Pacific atmospheric pressure variability that regulates wet-season precipitation variability over both northern and southern California. This mode, named as the “California precipitation mode” (CPM), is statistically distinct from other well-known modes of pressure variability such as the Pacific-North American pattern. In addition to controlling wet-season mean precipitation, positive days of the CPM coincide with up to 90% of the extreme (>99th percentile) precipitation days and 76% of detected atmospheric rivers (ARs) days, while the negative days correspond with 60% of the dry days. CMIP6 models capture the CPM remarkably well, including its statistical separation from the other well-known modes of pressure variability. The models also reproduce the CPM's strong association with California wet-season precipitation, giving confidence in the models’ dynamics relating to regional hydrologic extremes. However, the models also exhibit biases in regional hydrologic extremes. The CPM is a useful way to understand the origins of those biases and select the more credible models for further analysis: Models with unrealistically strong gradients in the CPM pressure pattern generally oversimulate larger wet extremes and produce excessively long dry intervals in the historical period. Thus the hydrologic biases can be traced to the particular aspects of North Pacific atmospheric dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗