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Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models

Buildings contribute 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, strategies that can substantially reduce emissions from the building stock are key components of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Models that represent the energy use of the building stock at scale under various scenarios of technology deployment have become essential tools for the development and assessment of such strategies. Within the past decade, the capabilities of building stock energy models have improved considerably, while model transferability and sharing has increased. Given these advancements, a new scheme for classifying building stock energy models is needed to facilitate communication of modeling approaches and the handling of important model dimensions. In this article, we present a new building stock energy model classification framework that leverages international modeling expertise from the participants of the International Energy Agency's Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology. Drawing from existing classification studies, here we propose a multi-layer quadrant scheme that classifies modeling techniques by their design (top-down or bottom-up) and degree of transparency (black-box or white-box); hybrid techniques are also addressed. The quadrant scheme is unique from previous classification approaches in its non-hierarchical organization, coverage of and ability to incorporate emerging modeling techniques, and treatment of additional modeling dimensions. The new classification framework will be complemented by a reporting protocol and online registry of existing models as part of ongoing work in Annex 70 to increase the interpretability and utility of building stock energy models for energy policy making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Empirical Validation of UBEM: An Assessment of Bias in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago

Residential and commercial buildings currently account for 30% of total global final energy consumption. Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) can enable scalable investments and unlock building improvements by quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions of specific measures or packages for building-specific technologies in large geographic regions. While the sophistication of UBEM data sources and technologies have increased dramatically in the past decade, there remains a knowledge gap for empirical validation and sources of bias between building-specific energy models and measured data at varying geographic scales.As UBEM continues to develop, systemic analysis of accuracy, bias, and limitations of the resulting models is necessary to inform best practices and move toward standardization. These are characterized for the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite with an initial case study involving metered electricity consumption data from 247,188 buildings in Chicago, Illinois, USA - averaged across years 2019-2021 - compared to the following datasets: (1) the AutoBEM-generated nation-scale Model America version 2 (MAv2) data for 596,064 buildings, (2) tax assessor data for 579,829 buildings, (3) tax assessor data filled with MAv2, and (4) 102 representative dynamic archetypes. The accuracy is reported for every building type and vintage combination, along with multiple sources of bias for unique building descriptors. The AutoBEM simulation workflow produced energy consumption estimates that closely match aggregated metered electricity consumption data for different types of buildings constructed during various time periods at the city scale - with initial normalized mean bias error of 10.9%, and 1.1% after removing outliers. Contribution of statistically significant factors including building type, land use, age, and size to variance in UBEM bias is quantified.

Garg, Ankur↗

Innovations in Building Energy Modeling: Research and Development Opportunities for Emerging Technologies

Building energy modeling (BEM) is a multipurpose tool for building energy efficiency (EE). The U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office (BTO) seeks to expand the use and effectiveness of BEM in the design and operation of commercial and residential buildings with the goal of achieving lasting reductions in total and peak energy use. This report identifies gaps and outlines recommended initiatives to achieve this goal, based on a combination of technical analysis and stakeholder input. In addition to BTO, this report can benefit BEM professionals (architects, mechanical engineers, energy consultants, building auditors, equipment manufacturers, and BEM software vendors) and BEM clients (building owners and operators, EE program administrators, EE service providers, policymakers, and policy and code jurisdictions such as states and cities). This report was developed in two phases. In the first, BTO worked with a team from Navigant Consulting (now Guidehouse) to characterize objectives, opportunities, and current activities; identify gaps and barriers; and define initiatives. To collect input, Navigant conducted telephone interviews and workshops with industry experts. The initial phase produced a draft report, which was released for public review in 2016 and yielded over 400 comments. Based on these comments, BTO compiled a second draft report that addressed many of those comments while acknowledging changes that had occurred both at BTO and in the industry. Unlike the first draft report, the second focused much more heavily on BTO’s own role, portfolio, and activities. BTO is a direct player in the BEM field - it funds the development of several significant software packages that are embedded in commercial products - and transparency about its goals and future plans is requisite. BTO recognizes that a great number of other public and private organizations contribute to the BEM enterprise. With the second draft report, BTO did not attempt to produce a blueprint for the industry as a whole, but rather a working document BTO can use to iteratively solicit stakeholder input and synthesize it into a program. BTO released the second draft report for public review in 2019. The second round of review generated 83 pages of feedback and comments - almost exactly the length of the draft report itself - a significant portion of which was collected and synthesized by IBPSA-USA Advocacy Committee. This final report incorporates this feedback. This report does not address the use of BEM in support of building-based grid services, a recent BTO initiative called Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB). In 2019, BTO published a report that specifically addresses the role of BEM - and other “integration” technologies - in GEB.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Data-Driven Approach to Nation-Scale Building Energy Modeling

In 2019, 125 million U.S. residential and commercial buildings consumed $412 billion in energy bills. These buildings currently consume 40% of the nation's primary energy, 73% of electricity, 80% of energy during peak electric grid use, and responsible for 39% of greenhouse gas emissions [14]. Urban-scale building energy modeling has grown significantly in the past decade, allowing individual campuses or communities of buildings to be modeled, simulated, and cost-effective solutions for intelligent management to be identified and implemented. While traditionally limited to individual counties and usually less than 2,000 buildings, the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) soft-ware suite has been developed to process unconventional, nation-scale data sources to generate unique OpenStudio and EnergyPlus models of each building. Through the use of High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, every U.S. building has been simulated. This paper showcases the data layout, node partitioning, algorithmic approaches, and analytic results that were used to create, share, and analyze 124.4 million U.S. building models.

Berres, Andy↗

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗

A Case Study about Energy and Cost Impacts for Different Community Scenarios Using a Community-Scale Building Energy Modeling Tool

The United States building sector consumed approximately 75% of electricity in 2019. By implementing renewable energy technologies and control strategies into buildings, future buildings will serve as energy generators as well as consumers. To accommodate this transition, communications among buildings and between buildings and the grid could provide more possibilities to optimize the energy performance of buildings. This paper develops a community-scale building energy model tool and conducts a case study adopting behind-the-meter distributed energy resources, sharing energy in different buildings, and using different electricity tariff structures. Three scenarios are studied: (1) electricity only supplied by the grid, (2) photovoltaic (PV) panels installed on and available to some but not all buildings, and (3) a connected community. To consider the impacts of locations and energy tariffs, this paper selects four cities and three electricity tariffs to evaluate the energy and cost performances of these three scenarios. The results show that the PV panels in Scenario 2 reduce 25% to 33% of the community-level electricity consumption and 20% to 30% of the community-level electricity cost compared with Scenario 1 in all studied locations and energy tariffs. By considering power management in the connected community (Scenario 3), the electricity consumption and cost can be further reduced by 6% to 7% and 5% to 11%, respectively, compared with Scenario 2.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of a metamodelling framework for building energy models with application to fifth-generation district heating and cooling networks

Fully defined physics-based building energy models can accurately represent building systems; however, generating models based on high-level parameters is time consuming and simulation time of complex models can be slow. This article discusses the development of a Metamodelling Framework to create metamodels from a building energy modelling dataset. The framework generates metamodels using either linear regression, random forests, or support vector regressions. A fifth-generation district heating and cooling system analysis use case was used to motivate the development of the framework. The use case required quick and accurate representations of annual building loads reported hourly. Typical annual building modelling approaches can result in a runtime of 10 min. The metamodels runtime was reduced to less than 10 s to load and run an annual simulation with user-defined covariates. The results of the metamodel performance and an abbreviated topology analysis based on the motivating use case will be presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes – Interim Update

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates state and national impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, assessed the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. The model codes of interest in this report are the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for residential buildings and ASHRAE Standard 90.1 for commercial buildings. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions at the state and national levels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

The Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates state and national impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, assessed the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. The model codes of interest in this report are the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for residential buildings and ASHRAE Standard 90.1 for commercial buildings. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions at the state and national levels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulating dispatchable grid services provided by flexible building loads: State of the art and needed building energy modeling improvements

End-use electrical loads in residential and commercial buildings are evolving into flexible and cost-effective resources to improve electric grid reliability, reduce costs, and support increased hosting of distributed renewable generation. This article reviews the simulation of utility services delivered by buildings for the purpose of electric grid operational modeling. We consider services delivered to (1) the high-voltage bulk power system through the coordinated action of many, distributed building loads working together, and (2) targeted support provided to the operation of low-voltage electric distribution grids. Although an exhaustive exploration is not possible, we emphasize the ancillary services and voltage management buildings can provide and summarize the gaps in our ability to simulate them with traditional building energy modeling (BEM) tools, suggesting pathways for future research and development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Bias Correction in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago Using Machine Learning

Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) holds promise for optimizing energy usage across extensive geographic regions. However, there is a recognized bias between simulated energy consumption and actual measured data. This study, based on building data from Chicago, delved into bias correction techniques for enhancing the accuracy of UBEM energy consumption estimates. Initially, the AutoBEM simulation yielded a normalized mean bias error (NMBE) of 1.1% and 51% of Coefficient of the Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) after outlier exclusion. To address this, three bias correction methods were deployed: Average Mean Bias Error based bias correction, Quantile mapping bias correction, and Machine learning-based bias correction using Linear Regression and Random Forest models. Post-correction results exhibited marked improvement. The NMBE values were diminished to 0 for Average MBE-based, 0.36 for Quantile Mapping, and 0 for Machine Learning-based corrections. Concurrently, the CVRMSE values registered reductions from an original 51 to 50.8 for Quantile Mapping, and 38.56 for Machine Learning-based corrections, pointing towards the effectiveness of specific bias correction methods in refining the precision of UBEM energy predictions. Such accurate estimations are paramount for informed energy planning and urban policy-making.

Chowdhury, Shovan↗

Parameter identification methods for low-order gray box building energy models: A critical review

The body of knowledge on gray box building energy modeling (GBBEM) has been developed over the past few decades and has undergone some important changes recently. Starting with simple methods and simple buildings, the science of GBBEM has grown to encompass complex and more computationally intensive techniques and complex commercial buildings. Numerous works including a recent review have considered model structure and inputs in a nearly systematic way, but no extant work systematically reviews the approaches for GBBEM parameter search initialization and final identification, despite this being arguably the most difficult and impactful part of the modeling process. To this end, we critically review 55 extant works describing advantages, limitations, and domain of applicability of several classes of parameter initialization and optimization techniques specifically for GBBEM. We categorize the classes of methods and analyze the evidence of their applicability for different applications within the field of GBBEM. We find an emerging consensus that initialization of parameter searches for anything other than the simplest building elements is often challenging and sometimes requires a stochastic approach to begin the parameter identification process. After this initial process, faster methods have been used in some cases but often the nature of the problem requires stochastic methods for this portion of the process as well. For less complex systems, more deterministic and efficient methods have been shown to be effective. Finally, we draw conclusions as to the domain of applicability of different classes of initialization and optimization techniques for GBBEEM and offer suggestions for research directions that are likely to prove fruitful.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Modularized Urban Scale Building Energy Modeling Framework Designed with An Open Mind

In recent years, physics-based building energy modeling (BEM) has started being used to evaluate the performance of buildings in the context of connected communities and on an urban scale to study their aggregated energy use, interactions, and impacts on the energy supply infrastructure and environment. The development of urban-scale BEM solutions needs extensive effort. Existing attempts tend to focus on different aspects of BEM on an urban scale, such as collecting as-built building data from different information sources, integrating geometry modeling with geographic information systems (GISs), representing operational and occupancy profiles, automating workflow, processing and visualizing the results, and conducting large-scale simulations. Urban-scale BEM development would benefit from multi-disciplinary research areas and from an open platform to adopt advancements on data sources and tools. For these purposes, this research proposes a modularized bottom-up model creation and simulation framework that is built on the state-of-the-art BEM tools and can accommodate different building stock data. This framework uses a standardized schema to describe building design and operational characteristics, and it can be instantiated from different building survey datasets with heterogeneous structures. The paper demonstrates how thousands of surveyed buildings from the 2012 U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) were one-to-one converted to EnergyPlus models through the schema and the model generation process, then simulated with distributed computing, and their results are summarized.

Lei, Xuechen↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

The Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program. A 2016 study looked more broadly at overall code impacts and this report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. In 2021, DOE conducted an interim and limited update to its 2016 study to evaluate potential building code updates using the 2016 methodology. That interim update includes estimated savings resulting from updates to the model energy codes, including the ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 (ASHRAE 90.1-2016) and 2019 editions, as well as the 2018 and 2021 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). In 2023, DOE developed a fully updated report that includes code updates (ASHRAE 90.1-2019 and 2021 IECC), as well as additional enhancements and updates, including updated energy prices, annual floorspace additions, state code adoption dates, and emission factors, among others. This current version is another fully updated report that includes code updates (ASHRAE 90.1-2022 and 2024 IECC), as well as additional enhancements and updates, including updated energy prices, state code adoption dates, emission factors, and renewable energy contribution among others. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when the new code is implemented and builders, architects, and engineers are required to comply with the new provisions. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes and are considered in this assessment. Figure ES.1 schematically describes the analysis framework. Energy savings are expressed in terms of energy use intensity (EUI) in the figure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) tools: A state-of-the-art review of bottom-up physics-based approaches

Regulations corroborate the importance of retrofitting existing building stocks or constructing new energy-efficient districts. There is, thus, a need for modeling tools to evaluate energy scenarios to better manage and design cities, and numerous methodologies and tools have been developed. Among them, Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) tools allow the energy simulation of buildings at large scales. Choosing an appropriate UBEM tool, balancing the level of complexity, accuracy, usability, and computing needs, remains a challenge for users. The review focuses on the main bottom-up physics-based UBEM tools, comparing them from a user-oriented perspective. Five categories are used: (i) the required inputs, (ii) the reported outputs, (iii) the exploited workflow, (iv) the applicability of each tool, and (v) the potential users. Moreover, a critical discussion is proposed, focusing on interests and trends in research and development. The results highlighted major differences between UBEM tools that must be considered to choose the proper one for an application. Finally, barriers of adoption of UBEM tools include the needs of a standardized ontology, a common three-dimensional city model, a standard procedure to collect data, and a standard set of test cases. This feeds into future development of UBEM tools to support cities’ sustainability goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗