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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1979

Thermal power systems, small power systems application project. Volume 1: Executive summary

Current small power system technology as applied to power plants up to 10 MWe in size was assessed. Markets for small power systems were characterized and cost goals were established. Candidate power plant system design concepts were selected for evaluation and preliminary performance and cost assessments were made. Economic studies were conducted and breakeven capital costs were determined for leading contenders among the candidate systems. An application study was made of the potential use of small power systems in providing part of the demand for pumping power by the extensive aqueduct system of California, estimated to be 1000 MWe by 1985. Criteria and methodologies were developed for application to the ranking of candidate power plant system design concepts. Experimental power plants concepts of 1 MWe rating were studied leading toward the definition of a power plant configuration for subsequent detail design, construction, testing and evaluation as Engineering Experiment No. 1 (EE No. 1). Site selection criteria and ground rules for the solicitation of EE No. 1 site participation proposals by DOE were developed.

Marriott, A. T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Performance and Total Cost of Ownership of a Fuel Cell Hybrid Mining Truck

The main objective of this work was to investigate the potential of hydrogen and fuel cells replacing diesel and internal combustion engines in the ultraclass haul trucks deployed in the mining sector. Performance, range, durability, and cost are the main criteria considered for comparing the two fuels and engine options. Fuel cell system (FCS) performance is characterized in terms of heat rejection, efficiency, and fuel consumption for a hybrid platform equivalent to a 3500 hp diesel engine operating on a representative open pit mining duty cycle. A hybrid platform was chosen because the heat rejection, with a constrained radiator frontal area, limits the maximum fuel cell-rated power by about 50% compared to that of the diesel truck. The hybrid powertrain was 81–88% more efficient than the diesel powertrain on the truck duty cycle. A liquid hydrogen storage system is required for an equal range or time between refilling, but the packaging remains a challenge. Fuel cell and battery durability were evaluated for their performance degradation and lifetime. Achieving a fuel cell lifetime comparable to the time between major overhauls for diesel trucks necessitates the oversizing of the membrane-active area, catalyst overloading, and voltage clipping. For an equal lifetime, the battery must be oversized to control its depth of discharge and charge/discharge rates. A total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis considering the initial capital expenditures, as well as the lifetime cost of fuel, operation, and maintenance, indicates that fuel cells and hydrogen can compete with diesel. A breakeven fuel cost for TCO parity is obtained if H2 is available at USD 5.79–6.85/kg vs. diesel at USD 3.25/gal and the FCS-specific cost is USD 323/kW e relative to USD 250/kW for a diesel genset. Volume manufacturing is required for FCS cost reduction. High volume is possible through the standardization, modularity, and proliferation of class 8 long-haul truck systems across different heavy-duty applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.

CO2 storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (2024): User’s Manual

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO 2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust, and actionable insights for evaluating project finances. This is the user's manual for CO2_S_COM. The model may be accessed at this link: FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4) - Submissions - EDX

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fusion by beam ions in a low collisionality, high mirror ratio magnetic mirror

Abstract The classical problem of neutral beam ions slowing down in a magnetic mirror geometry is revisited to provide predictive capability for the new Wisconsin HTS Axisymmetric Mirror under development at the University of Wisconsin. A Fokker–Planck model named fast beam ion solver (FBIS) is developed to include the spatial non-uniformity of a physical mirror geometry. The mathematical framework allows for efficient orbit averaging of the pitch-angle scattering operator, and permits a determination of the axial profile of the ambipolar potential confining the electrons. The numerical results from FBIS are consistent with earlier work, but further show how mirror-ratio and a near square magnetic well optimizes the fusion gain. The numerical results are also applied to inform the conceptual design of WHAM++, a low capital-cost breakeven-class magnetic mirror device.

Egedal, J. (ORCID:0000000177531529)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Geopolymer Cements: Resistance-Engineered Sewer Infrastructure for Longevity using Innovative, Energy-efficient, Synthesis Techniques (RESILIENT)

The primary objective of this project was to engineer an ultra-acid-resistant low-calcium alkali-activated cement paste for wastewater infrastructure applications to address the critical need for concrete materials with enhanced sulfuric acid resistance compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC) concrete. In this project, the first milestone was to benchmark the sulfuric acid (SA) resistance of OPC and metakaolin-based geopolymer cement pastes. The second milestone was to model, select, and evaluate the efficacy of metal cation additions on the SA resistance of geopolymer cements. The third milestone was to create synthetic metakaolin that performed similarly to natural metakaolin. The fourth milestone was to design, build, and test the efficacy of four abiotic and biotic nano seeding agents. The fifth and final milestone was to quantify the breakeven material cost requirements and estimated environmental lifecycle costs of the most durable geopolymer cement formulations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Analysis of Integrated Solar Power, Hydrogen Production, and Electricity Markets

decarbonized economy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing an Integrated Renewable-Electrolysis System

Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. With growing amounts of renewable generation on the California grid, there is downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly during the afternoon from photovoltaics (PV). These lower, or even potentially negative prices, challenge the business cases for new and existing PV plants. In addition, as the grid transitions to less flexible generation, there is greater need for system flexibility. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. The optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations where PV is already installed. The six market configurations include islanded, separated, retail, net energy metering (NEM), hybrid retail/wholesale and wholesale. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen price over the lifetime of the equipment is calculated. The cost includes production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams include the sale of hydrogen, low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale rate optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in the order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). The resulting system design balances between the capital and maintenance cost components, the operation costs (i.e., electricity costs) and the additional market revenues. The integration of solar PV and electrolysis is shown to provide a mutually beneficial relationship. For PV, integration with electrolysis offers the potential to hedge against wholesale market price volatility, and integration with electrolysis may offer the potential to defer or avoid transmission investment to deliver power to the point-of-use and instead use it on-site. When compared with SMR without considering any renewable hydrogen premiums, this study finds that PV + Electrolysis systems with current costs are likely not competitive; however, with cost reductions for electrolysis equipment consistent with DOE projections, it was found that systems with wholesale market access would be competitive, largely on account of both low capital costs and low-cost electricity. The electrolysis units can provide greater flexibility than is required based on retail rate optimization, so there is an opportunity for a utility or CAISO to increase system flexibility with PV + Electrolysis systems in return for commensurate compensation. In this way, there are potentially several solutions that fall between the hybrid configuration and the wholesale configuration that could provide sufficient compensation for a PV + Electrolysis unit to compete with SMR while also providing greater flexibility to the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1982

PV large systems project

Near term photovoltaic central-station markets are analyzed. Cost effectiveness of photovoltaic plants is determined in terms of reduction of oil consumption. The breakeven photovoltaic system cost vs oil-steam power generation is given. The value of photovoltaic power plants in Southern California and in Los Angelos is given in terms of fuel savings and capacity value. The potential value of third party financing, facilitated by Federal and state tax incentives is analyzed.

Leonard, S. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Economic perspective of ethanol and biodiesel coproduction from industrial hemp

Herein, the economics of producing biofuels from an industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa) genotype e 19m96136 was investigated. A lignocellulosic biofuel plant, hourly consuming 85 metric tons of hemp biomass was modeled in SuperPro Designer®. The integrated bioenergy plant produced hemp biodiesel and bioethanol from lipids and carbohydrates, respectively. The structural composition of the industrial hemp plant was analyzed in a previous study. The data obtained was used to simulate feedstock composition in SuperPro Designer®. The simulation results indicated that Hemp containing 2% lipids can yield up to 3.95 million gallons of biodiesel annually. On improving biomass lipid content to 5 and 10%, biodiesel production increased to 9.88 and 19.91 million gallons, respectively. The breakeven unit production cost of hemp biodiesel with 2, 5, and 10% lipid containing hemp was $18.49, $7.87, and $4.13/gallon, respectively. The biodiesel unit production cost when utilizing 10% lipid-containing hemp was comparable to soybean biodiesel at $4.13/ gallon. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed the possibility of a 7.80% reduction in unit production cost upon a 10% reduction in hemp feedstock cost. Furthermore, industrial hemp was capable of pro- ducing between 307.80 and 325.82 gallons of total biofuels per hectare of agricultural land than soybean.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from Economic Perspective of Ethanol and Biodiesel Coproduction from Industrial Hemp

In this study, the economics of producing biofuels from an industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa) genotype – 19m96136 was investigated. A lignocellulosic biofuel plant, hourly consuming 85 metric tons of hemp biomass was modeled in SuperPro Designer®. The integrated bioenergy plant produced hemp biodiesel and bioethanol from lipids and carbohydrates, respectively. The structural composition of the industrial hemp plant was analyzed in a previous study. The data obtained was used to simulate feedstock composition in SuperPro Designer®. The simulation results indicated that Hemp containing 2% lipids can yield up to 3.95 million gallons of biodiesel annually. On improving biomass lipid content to 5 and 10%, biodiesel production increased to 9.88 and 19.91 million gallons, respectively. The breakeven unit production cost of hemp biodiesel with 2, 5, and 10% lipid containing hemp was $18.49, $7.87, and $4.13/gallon, respectively. The biodiesel unit production cost when utilizing 10% lipid-containing hemp was comparable to soybean biodiesel at $4.13/gallon. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed the possibility of a 7.80% reduction in unit production cost upon a 10% reduction in hemp feedstock cost. Furthermore, industrial hemp was capable of producing between 307.80 and 325.82 gallons of total biofuels per hectare of agricultural land than soybean.

Conversion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benefit Analysis of CO 2 Delivery Options for Offshore Storage or Enhanced Oil Recovery

The analysis presented in this report evaluates the benefits of CO₂ offshore transport via pipeline or ship within the GOM. It takes a top-down framework to estimate the costs. First, this analysis designed a reduced-order model (ROM) based on the cash flows in the FECM/NETL CO₂ Transport Cost Model (also known as CO2_T_COM). The ROM takes capital expenses (CAPEX) and operating expenses (OPEX) to calculate the CO₂ breakeven price based on the cash flows. Second, this analysis developed regression models utilizing published data from other analyses to estimate CAPEX and OPEX. Since the ROM is a simplified cash flow calculation, it is easy to exchange the core regression models to estimate various costs. The ROM and regression models provided a framework that can be easily used by other researchers, decision-makers, operators, and regulators. The objective of this analysis is to assess the CO₂ breakeven cost range for pipeline and ship transport of captured CO₂ given the CO₂ source and storage reservoir located in the GOM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Electric Turboprop Commercial Freighter (HETCOF) Market Study

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets. This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with wing mounted battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition; however, this would require additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Hybrid Electric↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of Life Support Recycling and Resupply

Brief human space missions supply all the crew's water and oxygen from Earth. The multiyear International Space Station (ISS) program instead uses physicochemical life support systems to recycle water and oxygen. This paper compares the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of recycling to the LCC of resupply for potential future long duration human space missions. Recycling systems have high initial development costs but relatively low durationdependent support costs. This means that recycling is more cost effective for longer missions. Resupplying all the water and oxygen requires little initial development cost but has a much higher launch mass and launch cost. The cost of resupply increases as the mission duration increases. Resupply is therefore more cost effective than recycling for shorter missions. A recycling system pays for itself when the resupply LCC grows greater over time than the recycling LCC. The time when this occurs is called the recycling breakeven date. Recycling will cost very much less than resupply for long duration missions within the Earth-Moon system, such as a future space station or Moon base. But recycling would cost about the same as resupply for long duration deep space missions, such as a Mars trip. Because it is not possible to provide emergency supplies or quick return options on the way to Mars, more expensive redundant recycling systems will be needed.

recycling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Subsonic Single Aft Engine Narrowbody (SUSAN) Freighter Concept and Market Analysis

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with mounted wing battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition, however, additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft are needed. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Economic Dispatch Model of Nuclear High-Temperature Reactor with Hydrogen Cogeneration in Electricity Market

Hydrogen produced without carbon emissions could be a useful fuel as nations look to decarbonize their electricity, transport, and industry sectors. Using the iodine–sulfur (IS) cycle coupled with a nuclear heat source is one method for producing hydrogen without the use of fossil fuels. An economic dispatch model was developed for a nuclear-driven IS system to determine hydrogen sale prices that would make such a system profitable. The system studied is the HTTR-GT/H2, a design for power and hydrogen cogeneration at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency’s High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor. This study focuses on the development of the economic model and the role that input data plays in the final calculated values. Using a historical price duration curve shows that the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) or breakeven sale price of hydrogen would need to be 98.1 JPY/m3 or greater. Synthetic time histories were also used and found the LCOH to be 67.5 JPY/m3. The price duration input was found to have a significant effect on the LCOH. As such, great care should be used in these economic dispatch analyses to select reasonable input assumptions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗