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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization-Based Data-Driven Approach for Detecting Fault Location in Power Systems

In grids with large penetration of converterinterfaced resources (CIRs), measurements of voltage, current, and line parameters can fluctuate significantly during fault conditions. These fluctuations, combined with complex network topologies and extensive system branching, make accurate fault location challenging. Faults, such as short circuits, can cause prolonged outages with serious socio-economic impacts, highlighting the need for rapid fault identification to minimize downtime. However, current fault detection methods—such as relays and digital fault recorders—often relay information too slowly, impeding swift corrective action. Given the limited availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units, this paper introduces an optimization-based observer to estimate fault locations, grid line parameters, and voltages using local CIR measurements. To preserve the confidentiality of CIRs and enhance estimation accuracy, this study uses a black-box model of CIRs. This bottom-up, event-driven approach can enhances protection and control systems through optimized and real-time fault detection. Simulation results show that the optimization-based data-driven observer can accurately detect fault locations and estimate grid states and parameters, providing valuable insights for utilities and operators in grid applications.

Subedi, Sunil [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034069090X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing a Framework for Solving Multiobjective Simulation Optimization Problems

Multiobjective simulation optimization (MOSO) problems are optimization problems with multiple conflicting objectives, where evaluation of at least one of the objectives depends on a black-box numerical code or real-world experiment, which we refer to as a simulation. Whereas an extensive body of research is dedicated to developing new algorithms and methods for solving these and related problems, it is challenging and time-consuming to integrate these techniques into real-world production-ready solvers. This is partly because of the diversity and complexity of modern state-of-the-art MOSO algorithms and methods and partly because of the complexity and specificity of many real-world problems and their corresponding computing environments. The complexity of this problem is only compounded when introducing potentially complex and/or domain-specific surrogate-modeling techniques, problem formulations, design spaces, and data acquisition functions. Here, this paper carefully surveys the current state of the art in MOSO algorithms, techniques, and solvers, as well as problem types and computational environments where MOSO is commonly applied. We then present several key challenges in the design of a parallel multiobjective simulation optimization framework (ParMOO) and how they have been addressed. Finally, we provide two case studies demonstrating how customized ParMOO solvers can be quickly built and deployed to solve real-world MOSO problems.

engineering design optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

SANE: strategic autonomous non-smooth exploration for multiple optima discovery in multi-modal and non-differentiable black-box functions

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and multimodal parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, material structure image spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are black-boxes and time-consuming to evaluate, which resulted in strong interest towards active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO). However, these systems are often noisy which make the black box function severely multi-modal and non-differentiable, where a vanilla BO can get overly focused near a single or faux optimum, deviating from the broader goal of scientific discovery. To address these limitations, here we developed Strategic Autonomous Non-Smooth Exploration (SANE) to facilitate an intelligent Bayesian optimized navigation with a proposed cost-driven probabilistic acquisition function to find multiple global and local optimal regions, avoiding the tendency to becoming trapped in a single optimum. To distinguish between a true and false optimal region due to noisy experimental measurements, a human (domain) knowledge driven dynamic surrogate gate is integrated with SANE. We implemented the gate-SANE into pre-acquired piezoresponse spectroscopy data of a ferroelectric combinatorial library with high noise levels in specific regions, and piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM) hyperspectral data. SANE demonstrated better performance than classical BO to facilitate the exploration of multiple optimal regions and thereby prioritized learning with higher coverage of scientific values in autonomous experiments. Our work showcases the potential application of this method to real-world experiments, where such combined strategic and human intervening approaches can be critical to unlocking new discoveries in autonomous research.

Biswas, Arpan [University of Tennessee, Knoxville,↗
NASA NTRS2020

Adaptive Stress Testing: Finding Likely Failure Events with Reinforcement Learning

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many applications such as autonomous driving, failures cannot be completely eliminated due to the complex stochastic environment in which the system operates.As a result, safety validation is not only concerned about whether a failure can occur, but also discovering which failures are most likely to occur. This article presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event in simulation. We consider a general black box setting for partially observable and continuous-valued systems operating in an environment with stochastic disturbances. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system, making it suitable for black-box testing of large systems. We present different formulations depending on whether the state is fully observable or partially observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where we are concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system is stress tested to find the most likely scenarios of near mid-air collision.

Verification and Validation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Parameters and Voltage Estimation Approach Integrating Data-Driven Converter Model

With Measurements of grid voltage and current are essential for the optimal operation of the grid protection and control (P&C) systems. Grid parameters vary through time during the faults and especially in the converter interfaced resources (CIRs) rich power grid, and thus accurate estimation is critical to avoid the mis-operation of the P&C systems. In this paper, a moving horizon estimation (MHE) as an observer is devised and applied to estimate the grid line parameters and grid voltages for protection enhancement. Due to the proprietary and confidentiality of CIRs, the proposed approach uses the black-box model to represent their dynamics. Leveraging the easily accessible measurements of output current from the black-box model of CIR and voltage at the point of common coupling, the proposed method estimates the grid impedance and grid voltage during normal and faulty operating conditions. The performance shows that the optimization-based observer was able to closely observe the accurate states and parameters, which can be utilized by the P&C systems.

Subedi, Sunil↗
DOE OSTI2023

A physics informed bayesian optimization approach for material design: application to NiTi shape memory alloys

Abstract The design of materials and identification of optimal processing parameters constitute a complex and challenging task, necessitating efficient utilization of available data. Bayesian Optimization (BO) has gained popularity in materials design due to its ability to work with minimal data. However, many BO-based frameworks predominantly rely on statistical information, in the form of input-output data, and assume black-box objective functions. In practice, designers often possess knowledge of the underlying physical laws governing a material system, rendering the objective function not entirely black-box, as some information is partially observable. In this study, we propose a physics-informed BO approach that integrates physics-infused kernels to effectively leverage both statistical and physical information in the decision-making process. We demonstrate that this method significantly improves decision-making efficiency and enables more data-efficient BO. The applicability of this approach is showcased through the design of NiTi shape memory alloys, where the optimal processing parameters are identified to maximize the transformation temperature.

Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS1999

Developing a Fundamental Model for an Integrated GPS/INS State Estimation System with Kalman Filtering

This work will demonstrate the integration of sensor and system dynamic data and their appropriate models using an optimal filter to create a robust, adaptable, easily reconfigurable state (motion) estimation system. This state estimation system will clearly show the application of fundamental modeling and filtering techniques. These techniques are presented at a general, first principles level, that can easily be adapted to specific applications. An example of such an application is demonstrated through the development of an integrated GPS/INS navigation system. This system acquires both global position data and inertial body data, to provide optimal estimates of current position and attitude states. The optimal states are estimated using a Kalman filter. The state estimation system will include appropriate error models for the measurement hardware. The results of this work will lead to the development of a "black-box" state estimation system that supplies current motion information (position and attitude states) that can be used to carry out guidance and control strategies. This black-box state estimation system is developed independent of the vehicle dynamics and therefore is directly applicable to a variety of vehicles. Issues in system modeling and application of Kalman filtering techniques are investigated and presented. These issues include linearized models of equations of state, models of the measurement sensors, and appropriate application and parameter setting (tuning) of the Kalman filter. The general model and subsequent algorithm is developed in Matlab for numerical testing. The results of this system are demonstrated through application to data from the X-33 Michael's 9A8 mission and are presented in plots and simple animations.

Canfield, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1989

Integrated aerodynamic-structural design of a transport wing

The integrated aerodynamic-structural design of a subsonic transport wing for minimum weight subject to required range is formulated and solved. The problem requires large computational resources, and two methods are used to alleviate the computational burden. First, a modular sensitivity method that permits the usage of black-box disciplinary software packages, is used to reduce the cost of sensitivity derivatives. In particular, it is shown that derivatives of the aeroelastic response and divergence speed can be calculated without the costly computation of derivatives of aerodynamic influence coefficient and structural stiffness matrices. A sequential approximate optimization is used to further reduce computational cost. The optimization procedure is shown to require a relatively small number of analysis and sensitivity calculations.

Grossman, B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Degenerate coupled-cluster theory

A size-extensive, converging, black-box, ab initio coupled-cluster (ΔCC) ansatz is introduced that computes the energies and wave functions of states from any degenerate or nondegenerate Slater-determinant references with any numbers of α- and β-spin electrons, any patterns of orbital occupancy, any spin multiplicities, and any spatial symmetries. For a nondegenerate reference, it reduces to the single-reference coupled-cluster ansatz. For a degenerate multireference, it is a natural coupled-cluster extension of degenerate Møller–Plesset perturbation (ΔMP) theory. For ionized and electron-attached references, it is a coupled-cluster Green’s function, although the present theory is convergent toward the full-configuration-interaction limits, while the Feynman–Dyson many-body Green’s function (MBGF) theory generally is not. Its single-excitation instance is a projection Hartree–Fock theory as per the Thouless theorem, which may be useful for core ionizations, high-spin states, and possibly electron affinities. Additionally, a new multireference coupled-cluster theory for a general model space is developed. This quasidegenerate coupled-cluster (QCC) theory is exactly converging, but not black-box, and intended for strong correlation. Determinant-based, general-order algorithms of ΔCC and QCC theories are implemented and compared with configuration-interaction (CI) and equation-of-motion coupled-cluster (EOM-CC) theories through octuple excitations and with ΔMP and MBGF theories up to the nineteenth order. An algebraic, optimal-scaling algorithm of the ΔCC theory is computer-synthesized at the levels of single excitations (ΔCCS) and of single and double excitations (ΔCCSD). As a result, the order of performance is QCC ≈ ΔCC > EOM-CC > CI at the same order or QCC ≈ ΔCC > ΔMP > MBGF at the same cost scaling.

Hirata, So [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champ↗
NASA NTRS2017

Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization with Simplified SQP Algorithm

The problem of low-thrust trajectory optimization in highly perturbed dynamics is a stressing case for many optimization tools. Highly nonlinear dynamics and continuous thrust are each, separately, non-trivial problems in the field of optimal control, and when combined, the problem is even more difficult. This paper de-scribes a fast, robust method to design a trajectory in the CRTBP (circular restricted three body problem), beginning with no or very little knowledge of the system. The approach is inspired by the SQP (sequential quadratic programming) algorithm, in which a general nonlinear programming problem is solved via a sequence of quadratic problems. A few key simplifications make the algorithm presented fast and robust to initial guess: a quadratic cost function, neglecting the line search step when the solution is known to be far away, judicious use of end-point constraints, and mesh refinement on multiple shooting with fixed-step integration.In comparison to the traditional approach of plugging the problem into a “black-box” NLP solver, the methods shown converge even when given no knowledge of the solution at all. It was found that the only piece of information that the user needs to provide is a rough guess for the time of flight, as the transfer time guess will dictate which set of local solutions the algorithm could converge on. This robustness to initial guess is a compelling feature, as three-body orbit transfers are challenging to design with intuition alone. Of course, if a high-quality initial guess is available, the methods shown are still valid.We have shown that endpoints can be efficiently constrained to lie on 3-body repeating orbits, and that time of flight can be optimized as well. When optimizing the endpoints, we must make a trade between converging quickly on sub-optimal endpoints or converging more slowly on end-points that are arbitrarily close to optimal. It is easy for the mission design engineer to adjust this trade based on the problem at hand.The biggest limitation to the algorithm at this point is that multi-revolution transfers (greater than 2 revolutions) do not work nearly as well. This restriction comes in because the relationship between node 1 and node N becomes increasingly nonlinear as the angular distance grows. Trans-fers with more than about 1.5 complete revolutions generally require the line search to improve convergence. Future work includes: Comparison of this algorithm with other established tools; improvements to how multiple-revolution transfers are handled; parallelization of the Jacobian computation; in-creased efficiency for the line search; and optimization of many more trajectories between a variety of 3-body orbits.

Parrish, Nathan L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Sensitivity Analyses for Test Planning with Black-Box Models for Mars Sample Return

This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, on the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply novel optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output. On the modeling side, we apply multi-fidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping these in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful for the analysts to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing in order to maximize the value of information extracted from them to ensure mission success when limited resources are available.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified architecture for quantum lookup tables

Quantum access to arbitrary classical data encoded in unitary black-box oracles underlies interesting data-intensive quantum algorithms, such as machine learning or electronic structure simulation. The feasibility of these applications depends crucially on gate-efficient implementations of these oracles, which are commonly some reversible versions of the Boolean circuit for a classical lookup table. Here, we present a general parametrized architecture for quantum circuits implementing a lookup table that encompasses all prior work in realizing a continuum of optimal trade-offs between qubits, non-Clifford gates, and error resilience, up to logarithmic factors. Our architecture assumes only local 2D connectivity, yet recovers results, with the appropriate parameters, polylogarithmic error scaling. We also identify regimes, such as simultaneous sublinear scaling, in all parameters. These results enable tailoring implementations of the commonly used lookup table primitive to any given quantum device with constrained resources.

quantum circuits↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Applications of Adifor 3.0 for Efficient Calculation of First-and Second-Order CFD Sensitivity Derivatives

This final report will document the accomplishments of the work of this project. 1) The incremental-iterative (II) form of the reverse-mode (adjoint) method for computing first-order (FO) aerodynamic sensitivity derivatives (SDs) has been successfully implemented and tested in a 2D CFD code (called ANSERS) using the reverse-mode capability of ADIFOR 3.0. These preceding results compared very well with similar SDS computed via a black-box (BB) application of the reverse-mode capability of ADIFOR 3.0, and also with similar SDs calculated via the method of finite differences. 2) Second-order (SO) SDs have been implemented in the 2D ASNWERS code using the very efficient strategy that was originally proposed (but not previously tested) of Reference 3, Appendix A. Furthermore, these SO SOs have been validated for accuracy and computational efficiency. 3) Studies were conducted in Quasi-1D and 2D concerning the smoothness (or lack of smoothness) of the FO and SO SD's for flows with shock waves. The phenomenon is documented in the publications of this study (listed subsequently), however, the specific numerical mechanism which is responsible for this unsmoothness phenomenon was not discovered. 4) The FO and SO derivatives for Quasi-1D and 2D flows were applied to predict aerodynamic design uncertainties, and were also applied in robust design optimization studies.

Taylor, Arthur C., III↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Construction of Time-Dependent Hamiltonians for Microwave-Driven Josephson Circuits

Time-dependent electromagnetic drives are fundamental for controlling complex quantum systems, including superconducting Josephson circuits. In these devices, accurate time-dependent Hamiltonian models are imperative for predicting their dynamics and designing high-fidelity quantum operations. Existing numerical methods, such as black-box quantization (BBQ) and energy-participation ratio (EPR), excel at modeling the static Hamiltonians of Josephson circuits. However, these techniques do not fully capture the behavior of driven circuits stimulated by external microwave drives, nor do they include a generalized approach to account for the inevitable noise and dissipation that enter through microwave ports. Here, we introduce numerical techniques that leverage classical microwave simulations, efficiently executable in finite-element solvers, to obtain the time-dependent Hamiltonian of microwave-driven superconducting circuits with arbitrary geometries under charge, flux, or mixed electromagnetic modulation. Importantly, our techniques do not rely on a lumped-element description of the superconducting circuit, in contrast to previous approaches to tackling this problem. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach by characterizing the driven properties of realistic circuit devices in complex electromagnetic environments, including coherent dynamics due to charge and flux modulation, as well as drive-induced relaxation and dephasing. Our techniques offer a powerful toolbox for optimizing circuit designs and advancing practical applications in superconducting quantum computing.

Lu, Yao [Yale U.; Yale U. (main); Fermilab] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equation-Free Coarse Control of Distributed Parameter Systems via Local Neural Operators

The control of high-dimensional distributed parameter systems (DPS) remains a challenge when explicit coarse-grained equations are unavailable. Classical equation-free (EF) approaches rely on fine-scale simulators treated as black-box timesteppers. However, repeated simulations for steady-state computation, linearization, and control design are often computationally prohibitive, or the microscopic timestepper may not even be available, leaving us with data as the only resource. We propose a data-driven alternative that uses local neural operators, trained on spatiotemporal microscopic/mesoscopic data, to obtain efficient short-time solution operators. These surrogates are employed within Krylov subspace methods to compute coarse steady and unsteady-states, while also providing Jacobian information in a matrix-free manner. Krylov-Arnoldi iterations then approximate the dominant eigenspectrum, yielding reduced models that capture the open-loop slow dynamics without explicit Jacobian assembly. Both discrete-time Linear Quadratic Regulator (dLQR) and pole-placement (PP) controllers are based on this reduced system and lifted back to the full nonlinear dynamics, thereby closing the feedback loop.

93B52, 93C20, 47N70, 65J15, 65M32, 68T07, 68T20, 6↗
DOE OSTI2025

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse↗