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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulations of three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and an improved model for multicomponent reacting mixtures

We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Microphysical Control and Spatial‐Temporal Variability of Warm Rain Probability Using CloudSat and MODIS Observations

Abstract By combining measurements from MODIS and the CloudSat radar, we develop a parameterization scheme to quantify the combined microphysical controls by liquid water path (LWP) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of the probability of precipitation (PoP) in marine low cloud over tropical oceans. We demonstrate that the spatial‐temporal variation of grid‐mean in‐cloud can be largely explained by the variation of the joint probability density function of LWP and CDNC in the phase space specified by the bivariate PoP (LWP and CDNC) function. Through a series of sensitivity tests guided by this understanding, we find that in the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic the stratocumulus to cumulus transition of the is mainly due to the variation of CDNC while the annual cycle is mainly due to the variation of LWP. The results of this study provide a viable way to diagnose the root cause of warm rain problems in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deciphering the Role of Total Water Storage Anomalies in Mediating Regional Flooding

Regional floods result from various flood generation mechanisms. Traditional analyses mainly link flooding to extreme rainfall, with limited input from soil moisture. Total water storage (TWS) is a holistic measure of basin wetness, including additional storage components from surface water, snow, and groundwater. Utilizing a new 5-day Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its Follow On (GRACE(-FO)) data set, we investigated the linkage between short-term TWS anomaly (TWSA) and regional flooding. The 5-day TWSA solutions revealed flood signals missed by monthly TWSA solutions. Global basins exhibit distinct storage-discharge co-evolution patterns, offering new insights into flood mechanisms and propensity. Our bivariate event analyses show the annual maximum river discharges co-occur more often with the TWSA maxima than with precipitation in many basins. Further analyses revealed TWSA's time-lagged effect on river discharge, particularly in basins susceptible to floods triggered by saturation-excess runoff. The 5-day TWSA provides a new source of information for enhancing global flood preparedness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods to Evaluate Subcolumn Profiles Based on Two-Point Diagnostics

In atmospheric models, stochastic generation of subgrid-scale profiles or “subcolumns” has been used for a variety of purposes. Such subcolumns can be generated from subgrid probability density functions (PDFs) at different vertical levels, when such PDFs are available. To do so, the generator needs to decide how strongly points should be correlated in the vertical, that is, how much the values should be overlapped. This is sometimes called “PDF overlap.” To assess vertical correlation in a simplified, observable setting, here the vertical correlation of vertical velocity in subcloud layers is examined. Doppler lidar is used to evaluate the vertical profiles of vertical velocity produced by a large-eddy simulation (LES) model and the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) subcolumn generator. In order to diagnose unrealistic features in subcolumn profiles, various statistical diagnostics are examined here, including the bivariate PDF of vertical velocity at two separated points (i.e., altitudes), the two-point velocity correlation, the integral correlation length, the PDF of two-point velocity differences, and the skewness and kurtosis of two-point velocity differences. The profiles produced by LES match lidar well, except that they are too smooth at small scales. The profiles produced by SILHS exhibit sharp jumps from updraft to downdraft that are not observed in the lidar data. To reduce the generation of these unrealistically sharp jumps, the SILHS sampling method is revised. The diagnostics confirm that the revised sampling method reduces the overprediction of sharp jumps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models

Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symptoms and Systemic Drug Reactions in Persons Receiving Weekly Rifapentine Plus Isoniazid (3HP) Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Abstract Background Three months of weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid (3HP) therapy for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended worldwide. The development of symptoms and systemic drug reactions (SDRs) on 3HP have not been fully characterized. We aimed to determine the patterns of symptom development and identify SDRs and associated factors in patients taking 3HP. Methods We analyzed symptoms data in participants receiving 3HP in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium's iAdhere study (Study 33). We examined the patterns of symptom reporting across participants from baseline and 4 monthly visits. Bivariate analyses and multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with SDRs. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results Among 1002 participants receiving 3HP, 768 (77%) reported at least 1 symptom; 97% of these symptoms were grade 1 (79%) or grade 2 (18%). Most symptoms developed in the first month and resolved. A total of 111 (11%) participants had symptoms that met criteria for SDRs; however, 53 (48%) of these participants completed therapy. Factors associated with SDRs and discontinuation included female sex (RR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.19–3.54), age ≥45 years (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.19–3.31), and use of concomitant medications (RR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.15–4.42). Conclusions Although most patients receiving 3HP reported symptoms, most were mild, occurred early, and resolved without stopping treatment. Among patients experiencing SDRs, nearly half were able to complete therapy. Patient and provider education should focus on differentiating severe reactions where 3HP should be stopped from minor symptoms that will resolve. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01582711.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modern Senicide in the Face of a Pandemic: An Examination of Public Discourse and Sentiment About Older Adults and COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Objectives This study examined public discourse and sentiment regarding older adults and COVID-19 on social media and assessed the extent of ageism in public discourse. Methods Twitter data (N = 82,893) related to both older adults and COVID-19 and dated from January 23 to May 20, 2020, were analyzed. We used a combination of data science methods (including supervised machine learning, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis), qualitative thematic analysis, and conventional statistics. Results The most common category in the coded tweets was “personal opinions” (66.2%), followed by “informative” (24.7%), “jokes/ridicule” (4.8%), and “personal experiences” (4.3%). The daily average of ageist content was 18%, with the highest of 52.8% on March 11, 2020. Specifically, more than 1 in 10 (11.5%) tweets implied that the life of older adults is less valuable or downplayed the pandemic because it mostly harms older adults. A small proportion (4.6%) explicitly supported the idea of just isolating older adults. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) within “jokes/ridicule” targeted older adults, half of which were “death jokes.” Also, 14 themes were extracted, such as perceptions of lockdown and risk. A bivariate Granger causality test suggested that informative tweets regarding at-risk populations increased the prevalence of tweets that downplayed the pandemic. Discussion Ageist content in the context of COVID-19 was prevalent on Twitter. Information about COVID-19 on Twitter influenced public perceptions of risk and acceptable ways of controlling the pandemic. Finaly, public education on the risk of severe illness is needed to correct misperceptions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the stellar populations of backsplash galaxies

Backsplash galaxies are those that traverse and overshoot cluster cores as they fall into these structures. They are affected by environment, and should stand out in contrast to the infalling population. We target galaxies in the vicinity of clusters (R≳R 200 ) and select a sample in projected phase space (PPS), from the compilation of Sampaio et al. based on SDSS data. We present a statistical analysis, comparing two regions in PPS, with the same projected distance to the cluster but different velocity. The analysis relies on the presence of variations in the stellar population content of backsplash galaxies. We find a lower limit in the fractional contribution of ∼5 per cent with respect to the general sample of infalling galaxies at similar group-centric distance when using single line strength analysis, or ∼15-30 per cent when adopting bivariate distributions. The stellar populations show a subtle but significant difference towards older ages, and a higher fraction of quiescent galaxies. We also compare this set with a general field sample, where a substantially larger difference in galaxy properties is found, with the field sample being consistently younger, metal poorer and with a lower fraction of quiescent galaxies. Noting that our ‘cluster’ sample is located outside of the virial radius, we expect this difference to be caused by pre-processing of the infalling galaxies in the overall higher density regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Imaging electron angular distributions to assess a full-power petawatt-class laser focus

Here we present a technique to assess the focal volume of petawatt-class lasers at full power. Our approach exploits quantitative measurement of the angular distribution of electrons born in the focus via ionization of rarefied gas, which are accelerated forward and ejected ponderomotively by the field. We show that a bivariate (θ,Φ) angular distribution, which was obtained with image plates, not only enables the peak intensity to be extracted, but also reflects nonideality of the focal-spot intensity distribution. In our prototype demonstration at intensities of a few ×10 19 to a few ×10 20 W/cm 2 , an f/10 optic produced a focal spot in the paraxial regime. This allows a plane-wave parametrization of the peak intensity given by tanθ c =2/a 0 (a 0 being the normalized vector potential and θ c the minimum ejection angle) to be compared with our measurements. Qualitative agreement was found using an a 0 inferred from the pulse energy, pulse duration, and focal spot distribution with a modified parametrization, tanθ c =2η/a 0 ($η=2.02^{+0.26}_{–0.22}$). This highlights the need for (i) better understanding of intensity degradation due to focal-spot distortions and (ii) more robust modeling of the ejection dynamics. Using single-shot detection of electrons, we showed that while there is significant shot-to-shot variation in the number of electrons ejected at a given angular position, the average distribution scales with the pulse energy in a way that is consistent with that seen with the image plates. Finally, we note that the asymptotic behavior as θ→0° limits the usability of angular measurement. For 800 nm, this limit is at an intensity ~10 21 W/cm 2 .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Architecture for fast implementation of quantum low-density parity-check codes with optimized Rydberg gates

Here, we propose an implementation of bivariate bicycle codes [S. Bravyi et al., Nature (London) 627, 778 (2024)] based on long-range Rydberg gates between stationary neutral atom qubits. An optimized layout of data and ancilla qubits reduces the maximum Euclidean communication distance needed for nonlocal parity-check operators. An optimized Rydberg gate pulse design enables 𝖢𝖹 entangling operations with fidelity $\mathscr{F}$ >0.999 at a distance greater than 12 µ⁢m. The combination of optimized layout and gate design leads to a quantum error correction cycle time of ∼1.2⁢8 ms for a [[144,12,12]] code, which is nearly a factor-of-two improvement over previous designs.

Poole, C. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpolating between small- and large-$\mathscr{g}$ expansions using Bayesian model mixing

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can be used to combine models that are predictive in different input domains into a composite distribution that has improved predictive power over the entire input space. We explore the application of BMM to the mixing of two expansions of a function of a coupling constant $\mathscr{g}$ that are valid at small and large values of $\mathscr{g}$ respectively. This type of problem is quite common in nuclear physics, where physical properties are straightforwardly calculable in strong and weak interaction limits or at low and high densities or momentum transfers, but difficult to calculate in between. Interpolation between these limits is often accomplished by a suitable interpolating function, e.g., Padé approximants, but it is then unclear how to quantify the uncertainty of the interpolant. We address this problem in the simple context of the partition function of zero-dimensional Φ 4 theory, for which the (asymptotic) expansion at small $\mathscr{g}$ and the (convergent) expansion at large $\mathscr{g}$ are both known. We consider three mixing methods: linear mixture BMM, localized bivariate BMM, and localized multivariate BMM with Gaussian processes. Here, we find that employing a Gaussian process in the intermediate region between the two predictive models leads to the best results of the three methods. The methods and validation strategies we present here should be generalizable to other nuclear physics settings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Straintronics with single-layer MoS 2 : A quantum Monte Carlo study

Using state-of-the-art quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, we study straintronic properties of a single MoS 2 monolayer. 2D MoS 2 is a quintessential straintronic material for which many experiments have been performed. First, we determine the equilibrium atomic structure which is not known experimentally and is strictly needed to correctly determine the straintronic properties. That enables us to precisely analyze the quasiparticle band gaps for any applied biaxial strain, which we describe by a bivariate paraboloid function of lattice constant and internal structural parameter. Using the fixed-node QMC calculations fitted by analytical formulas, we localize the following excited state crossings between the direct, K → K , and indirect Γ → X and K → K /2 excitations. Based on this highly accurate many-body treatment, we predict a gauge factor of 136 meV/% for the K → K transition and a fairly narrow window of ≈ 2.8 % from compressive to mildly tensile strains, accounting for only ≈ 0.3 eV band gap change maintaining the direct character of the gap. Consequently, we suggest that, compared to other 2D materials, such as phosphorene, there is only a limited straintronic tuneability in this material often studied for its straintronic properties. QMC results are compared to results of standard DFT modeling, which reveal insights into the corresponding inaccuracies and therefore open a window for educated use of rapid DFT approaches. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Huang, Y.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bimodal Visualization of Industrial X-Ray and Neutron Computed Tomography Data

Advanced manufacturing creates increasingly complex objects with material compositions that are often difficult to characterize by a single modality. Our collaborating domain scientists are going beyond traditional methods by employing both X-ray and neutron computed tomography to obtain complementary representations expected to better resolve material boundaries. However, the use of two modalities creates its own challenges for visualization, requiring either complex adjustments of bimodal transfer functions or the need for multiple views. Together with experts in nondestructive evaluation, we designed a novel interactive bimodal visualization approach to create a combined view of the co-registered X-ray and neutron acquisitions of industrial objects. Using an automatic topological segmentation of the bivariate histogram of X-ray and neutron values as a starting point, the system provides a simple yet effective interface to easily create, explore, and adjust a bimodal visualization. Here, we propose a widget with simple brushing interactions that enables the user to quickly correct the segmented histogram results. Our semiautomated system enables domain experts to intuitively explore large bimodal datasets without the need for either advanced segmentation algorithms or knowledge of visualization techniques. We demonstrate our approach using synthetic examples, industrial phantom objects created to stress bimodal scanning techniques, and real-world objects, and we discuss expert feedback.

image segmentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multivariate analysis: An essential for studying complex glasses

Understanding the impact of individual compositional components on the devitrification of complex multicomponent glasses, for example, 10–50+ oxides, typically requires numerous studies to examine each component's impact. Here we apply exploratory data analysis (EDA) to a heterogeneous data set of silicate glasses to determine the cations’ individual and interacting effects on the crystallization of nepheline (nominally NaAlSiO 4 ). Our data consisted of 795 simulated high-level nuclear waste glasses composed of, on average, 50 oxide components. We determine the interactions in the heterogeneous data that cause deviations from the behavior found in simplified composition studies. Using both univariate and bivariate EDA techniques, we demonstrate the importance of including calculated structural glass parameters on nepheline's devitrification, including field strength, cation-to-anion radius ratio, and single-bond strength. Here, we also show that studies with simplified glass compositions may fall short in generating knowledge directly transferrable to complex glass compositions. The method used in this study has the potential to inform experimental design for simplified compositions (~6+ oxides) that can generate knowledge directly transferrable to complex, multivariable compositions. The observations reported here have broad implications for any study attempting to map the physical properties of a complex glass containing numerous cations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Method for Preoperative Positioning of Total Ankle Replacement Using 3D Digital Model

Abstract Objective To establish a digital model of the ankle joint through 3D imaging technology and explore the preoperative placement of ankle replacement prostheses. Methods Computed tomography images of intact ankle joints from 54 cases in the outpatient and inpatient departments of our hospital were collected; according to the INBONE® total ankle system surgery process, the surgery model and surgical osteotomy were finished using MIMICS based on computer simulation method. The shortest distance was measured between the center point and the anterior, posterior, medial, and lateral, respectively, to ensure the precise position of the ankle replacement prosthesis by digital simulation surgery. The relationship between the two variables was analyzed by bivariate correlation analysis. Results The dataset of this study included 48 cases of the sub‐data set (26 males and 22 females) and included 27 cases of left ankle and 21 cases of right ankle. The average medial malleolar angle was 18.67°± 2.87°, the average amount of bone resection was 12.13 ± 1.86 cm 3 , the mid‐anterior distance was 1.72 ± 0.19 cm, the mid‐posterior distance was 2.00 ± 0.19 cm, the ratio of mid‐anterior to mid‐posterior was 0.87, the mid‐medial distance was 1.26 ± 0.17 cm, the mid‐lateral distance was 1.19 ± 0.16 cm, and the ratio of mid‐medial to mid‐lateral was 1.06. After osteotomy, the anteroposterior diameter was 3.73 ± 0.32 cm, the transverse diameter was 2.46 ± 0.27 cm, and the ratio of anteroposterior diameter to transverse diameter was 1.53. In the bottom view, the shape after osteotomy is rectangular. The mid‐anterior distance was strongly negatively correlated with age, the mid‐anterior distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐medial distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐lateral distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐lateral distance and the anteroposterior diameter, the anteroposterior diameter and the transverse diameter were all strongly positively correlated. Conclusion The projection point of the lower tibia centerline on the tibial horizontal osteotomy surface is located at a position slightly anterior to the midpoint of the transverse diameter after ankle arthroplasty. The rational positioning of the total ankle replacement is located at both a position slightly anterior to the midpoint of the transverse diameter and midpoint of the anteroposterior diameter, which can be used as a reference method before total ankle arthroplasty surgery.

Wu, Shi‐xun↗