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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Galaxy bias in the era of LSST: perturbative bias expansions

Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Year 10 (Y10) data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian perturbation theory (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. Here, we consider a variety of different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale of k max = 0.4 Mpc -1 for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as ‘assembly bias’, is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. Lastly, this results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Biased diffusion in tubes of alternating diameter: Numerical study over a wide range of biasing force

This paper is devoted to particle transport in a tube formed by alternating wide and narrow sections, in the presence of an external biasing force. The focus is on the effective transport coefficients—mobility and diffusivity, as functions of the biasing force and the geometric parameters of the tube. Dependences of the effective mobility and diffusivity on the tube geometric parameters are known in the limiting cases of no bias and strong bias. The approximations used to obtain these results are inapplicable at intermediate values of the biasing force. To bridge the two limits Brownian dynamics simulations were run to determine the transport coefficients at intermediate values of the force. The simulations were performed for a representative set of tube geometries over a wide range of the biasing force. They revealed that there is a range of the narrow section length, where the force dependence of the mobility has a maximum. In contrast, the diffusivity is a monotonically increasing function of the force. A simple formula is proposed, which reduces to the known dependences of the diffusivity on the tube geometric parameters in both limits of zero and strong bias. At intermediate values of the biasing force, the formula catches the diffusivity dependence on the narrow section length, if the radius of these sections is not too small.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bias due to neutrinos must not uncorrect'd go

It is a well known fact that galaxies are biased tracers of the distribution of matter in the Universe. The galaxy bias is usually factored as a function of redshift and scale, and approximated as being scale-independent on large, linear scales. In cosmologies with massive neutrinos, the galaxy bias defined with respect to the total matter field (cold dark matter, baryons, and non-relativistic neutrinos) also depends on the sum of the neutrino masses M ν , and becomes scale-dependent even on large scales. This effect has been usually neglected given the sensitivity of current surveys. Yet, it becomes a severe systematic for future surveys aiming to provide the first detection of non-zero M ν . The effect can be corrected for by defining the bias with respect to the density field of cold dark matter and baryons, rather than the total matter field. In this work, we provide a simple prescription for correctly mitigating the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias effect in a practical way. We clarify a number of subtleties regarding how to properly implement this correction in the presence of redshift-space distortions and non-linear evolution of perturbations. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis on simulated galaxy clustering data that match the expected sensitivity of the Euclid survey. We reveal that the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias can lead to important shifts in both the inferred mean value of M ν , as well as its uncertainty, and provide an analytical explanation for the magnitude of the shifts. We show how these shifts propagate to the inferred values of other cosmological parameters correlated with M ν , such as the cold dark matter physical density Ω cdm h 2 and the scalar spectral index n s . In the end, we find that correctly accounting for the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias will be of crucial importance for future galaxy clustering analyses. We encourage the cosmology community to correctly account for this effect using the simple prescription we present in our work. The tools necessary to easily correct for the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias will be made publicly available in an upcoming release of the Boltzmann solver CLASS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning Bias: Planning as a Source of Sampling Bias

Many data-driven planning methods are trained on data generated by planners. It is well known that many statistical learning methods are sensitive to sampling bias, and yet there has been little or no attention to planning as a sampling method and its role in introducing sampling bias into planner-generated training data. Recently, it has been demonstrated that A**,* in the presence of problems with variable heuristic error, prefers some solutions over other equally cost-optimal solutions. But, as we discuss in this paper, mitigation may not be as simple as resolving arbitrary tie-breaking by sampling from ties uniformly at random. In this paper, we formalize an intuition of planning bias. We focus on problems which output a single solution. Diverse planning only complicates the problem by generalizing it to bias in the set of sets; we show how it is subject to bias in the single solution. We make some useful observations about deterministic algorithms in contrast to non-deterministic algorithms. We explain how information entropy may be a good way to measure planning bias, and discuss some issues in evaluating practical approaches to measurement. We address the intuition that uniform random tiebreaking should mitigate bias; and sketch a novel approach to constructing an appropriate random distribution for duplicate detection during forward search for unbiased A*. Finally, we suggest directions for future work.

Planning Scheduling Algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing Modules to Prevent Reverse Bias Degradation in Perovskite Solar Cells when Partial Shading Occurs

When a solar cell in a panel is shaded, the illuminated cells can place a large reverse bias on the shaded cell to attempt to force current through it. Although the panel can continue to produce power, the reverse bias can cause significant problems for the shaded cell. In the case of perovskite solar modules, Joule heating and irreversible electrochemical reactions will degrade the cell. Some photovoltaic technologies use bypass diodes to solve this problem. To prevent both a perovskite cell and an all-perovskite tandem cell from falling into reverse bias breakdown while shaded, no more than two cells per bypass diode are allowed, which is likely to be prohibitively expensive for many applications. Herein, how many solar cells can be protected by one bypass diode in single-junction and multijunction perovskite modules is explored. It is easier to incorporate bypass diodes into modules with singulated cells than with monolithic panels. It is shown that perovskite–silicon tandems can be protected with fewer bypass diodes than with single-junction perovskite modules. Furthermore, it is suggested that if bypass diodes cannot be feasibly incorporated, then the panels should be deployed in utility-scale power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polarization Type Potential Induced Degradation under Positive Bias in a Commercial PERC Module: Preprint

Potential induced degradation of the polarization type (PID-p) can reduce module performance in a relatively short period of time. PID-p can occur at both voltage polarities, but most studies are focused on degradation under a negative bias. This paper uses commercial bifacial passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) cells within a monofacial glass-backsheet module construction to evaluate the impact of PID-p under a positive bias on the front side. Using the aluminum-foil (Al-foil) method, the module was stressed for PID in an environmental chamber. After the stress, the maximum power (Pmax) showed a decline of 3.1% at 1000 W/m2 and 6.2% at 200 W/m2. Recovery under light was also investigated. Complete recovery was observed at high irradiance, while a partial recovery was seen at lower irradiance. The outcomes of this study can help in understanding PID-p degradation under a positive bias and its recovery under the light.

PERC↗
DOE OSTI2021

An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reverse-Bias Resilience of Monolithic Perovskite/Silicon Tandem Solar Cells

Metal halide perovskites have rapidly enabled a range of high-performance photovoltaic technologies. However, catastrophic failure under reverse voltage bias poses a roadblock for their commercialization. In this work, we conduct a series of stress tests to compare the reverse-bias stability of perovskite single-junction, silicon single-junction, and monolithic perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells. We demonstrate that the tested perovskite/silicon tandem devices are considerably more resilient against reverse bias compared with perovskite single-junction devices. The origin of such improved stability stems from the low reverse-bias diode current of the silicon subcell. This translates to dropping most of the voltage over the silicon subcell, where such a favorable voltage distribution protects the perovskite subcell from reverse-bias-induced degradation. These results highlight that, compared with other perovskite technologies, monolithic perovskite/silicon tandems are at a higher technology readiness level in terms of tackling the reverse bias and partial shading challenges, which is a considerable advantage toward commercialization.

halide perovskite↗
DOE OSTI2024

Barrier reinforcement for enhanced perovskite solar cell stability under reverse bias

Stability of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) under light, heat, humidity and their combinations have been notably improved recently. However, PSCs have poor reverse-bias stability that limits their real-world application. Here we report a systematic study on the degradation mechanisms of p-i-n structure PSCs under reverse bias. The oxidation of iodide by injected holes at the cathode side initialize the reverse-bias-induced degradation, then the generated neutral iodine oxidizes metal electrode such as copper, followed by drift of Cu+ into perovskites and its reduction by injected electrons, resulting in localized metallic filaments and thus device breakdown. A reinforced barrier with combined lithium fluoride, tin oxide and indium tin oxide at the cathode side reduces device dark current and avoids the corrosion of Cu0. It dramatically increases breakdown voltage to above -20 V and improved the T90 lifetime of PSCs to ~1,000 h under -1.6 V. The modified minimodule also maintained over 90% of its initial performance after 720 h of shadow tests.

degradation mechanisms↗
DOE OSTI2016

Rate equation model of laser induced bias in uranium isotope ratios measured by resonance ionization mass spectrometry

Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. The use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of the U-235/U-238 ratio to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. In application, isotope standards are used to identify and correct bias in measured isotope ratios, but understanding laser-induced bias from first-principles can improve the precision and accuracy of experimental measurements. A rate equation model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variations in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. The model uses atomic data and empirical descriptions of laser performance to estimate the laser-induced bias expected in experimental measurements of the U-235/U-238 ratio. Empirical corrections are also included to account for ionization processes that are difficult to calculate from first principles with the available atomic data. Development of this model has highlighted several important considerations for properly interpreting experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Response of the plasma to the size of an anode electrode biased near the plasma potential

As the size of a positively biased electrode increases, the nature of the interface formed between the electrode and the host plasma undergoes a transition from an electron-rich structure (electron sheath) to an intermediate structure containing both ion and electron rich regions (double layer) and ultimately forms an electron-depleted structure (ion sheath). In this study, measurements are performed to further test how the size of an electron-collecting electrode impacts the plasma discharge the electrode is immersed in. This is accomplished using a segmented disk electrode in which individual segments are individually biased to change the effective surface area of the anode. Measurements of bulk plasma parameters such as the collected current density, plasma potential, electron density, electron temperature and optical emission are made as both the size and the bias placed on the electrode are varied. Abrupt transitions in the plasma parameters resulting from changing the electrode surface area are identified in both argon and helium discharges and are compared to the interface transitions predicted by global current balance [S. D. Baalrud, N. Hershkowitz, and B. Longmier, Phys. Plasmas 14, 042109 (2007)]. While the size-dependent transitions in argon agree, the size-dependent transitions observed in helium systematically occur at lower electrode sizes than those nominally derived from prediction. The discrepancy in helium is anticipated to be caused by the finite size of the interface that increases the effective area offered to the plasma for electron loss to the electrode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Cool core bias in Sunyaev–zel’dovich galaxy cluster surveys

Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) surveys find massive clusters of galaxies by measuring the inverse Compton scattering of cosmic microwave background off of intra-cluster gas. The cluster selection function from such surveys is expected to be nearly independent of redshift and cluster astrophysics. In this work, we estimate the effect on the observed SZ signal of centrally peaked gas density profiles (cool cores) and radio emission from the brightest cluster galaxy by creating mock observations of a sample of clusters that span the observed range of classical cooling rates and radio luminosities. For each cluster, we make simulated SZ observations by the South Pole Telescope and characterize the cluster selection function, but note that our results are broadly applicable to other SZ surveys. We find that the inclusion of a cool core can cause a change in the measured SPT significance of a cluster between 0.01 and 10% at z>0.3, increasing with cuspiness of the cool core and angular size on the sky of the cluster (i.e., decreasing redshift, increasing mass). We provide quantitative estimates of the bias in the SZ signal as a function of a gas density cuspiness parameter, redshift, mass, and the 1.4 GHz radio luminosity of the central active galactic nuclei. Based on this work, we estimate that, for the Phoenix cluster (one of the strongest cool cores known), the presence of a cool core is biasing the SZ significance high by ∼6%. The ubiquity of radio galaxies at the centers of cool core clusters will offset the cool core bias to varying degrees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Towards physics responsible for large-scale Lyman-α forest bias parameters

Using a series of carefully constructed numerical experiments based on hydrodynamic cosmological SPH simulations, we attempt to build an intuition for the relevant physics behind the large scale density (b δ ) and velocity gradient (b η ) biases of the Lyman-α forest. Starting with the fluctuating Gunn-Peterson approximation applied to the smoothed total density field in real-space, and progressing through redshift-space with no thermal broadening, redshift-space with thermal broadening and hydrodynamically simulated baryon fields, we investigate how approximations found in the literature fare. We find that Seljak's 2012 analytical formulae for these bias parameters work surprisingly well in the limit of no thermal broadening and linear redshift-space distortions. We also show that his b η formula is exact in the limit of no thermal broadening. Since introduction of thermal broadening significantly affects its value, we speculate that a combination of large-scale measurements of b η and the small scale flux PDF might be a sensitive probe of the thermal state of the IGM. Lastly, we find that large-scale biases derived from the smoothed total matter field are within 10–20% to those based on hydrodynamical quantities, in line with other measurements in the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Suppressing simulation bias in multi-modal data using transfer learning

Abstract Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Activation Energies for Oxide- and Interface-Trap Charge Generation Due to Negative-Bias Temperature Stress of Si-Capped SiGe-pMOSFETs

We investigate negative-bias temperature instabilities in SiGe pMOSFETs with SiO 2 /HfO 2 gate dielectrics. The measured activation energies for interface-trap charge buildup during negative-bias temperature stress are lower for SiGe channel pMOSFETs with SiO 2 /HfO 2 gate dielectrics and Si capping layers than for conventional Si channel pMOSFETs with SiO 2 gate dielectrics. Electron energy loss spectroscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy images demonstrate that Ge atoms can diffuse from the SiGe layer into the Si capping layer, which is adjacent to the SiO 2 /HfO 2 gate dielectric. Density functional calculations show that these Ge atoms reduce the strength of nearby Si-H bonds and that Ge-H bond energies are still lower, thereby reducing the activation energy for interface-trap generation for the SiGe devices. Activation energies for oxide-trap charge buildup during negative-bias temperature stress are similarly small for SiGe pMOSFETs with SiO 2 /HfO 2 gate dielectrics and Si pMOSFETs with SiO 2 gate dielectrics, suggesting that, in both cases, the oxide-trap charge buildup likely is rate-limited by hole tunneling into the near-interfacial SiO 2 .

activation energy↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cloud Influence on ERA5 and AMPS Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Biases in West Antarctica

The surface downwelling longwave radiation component (LW?) is crucial for the determination of the surface energy budget and has significant implications for the resilience of ice surfaces in the polar regions. Accurate model evaluation of this radiation component requires knowledge about the phase, vertical distribution, and associated temperature of water in the atmosphere, all of which control the LW? signal measured at the surface. In this study, we examine the LW? model errors found in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) operational forecast model and the ERA5 reanalysis model relative to observations from the AWARE campaign at McMurdo Station and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide. The errors are calculated separately for observed clear sky conditions, ice cloud occurrences, and liquid-bearing cloud layer (LBCL) occurrences. The analysis results show a tendency (in both models at each site) to underestimate the LW? during clear sky conditions, high error variability (standard deviations > 20 W/m2) during any type of cloud occurrence, and negative LW? biases when LBCLs are observed (bias magnitudes > 15 W/m2 in tenuous LBCL cases; > 43 W/m2 in optically thick/opaque LBCLs instances). We suggest that a generally dry and liquid water-deficient atmosphere responsible for the identified LW? biases in both models is the result of excessive ice formation and growth, which could stem from model initial and lateral boundary conditions, microphysics scheme, aerosol representation, and/or limited vertical resolution.

Silber, Israel↗