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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Dee, D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

Malakar, Nabin K.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Off-nadir antenna bias correction using Amazon rain sigma(0) data

The radar response from the Amazon rain forest was studied to determine the suitability of this region for use as a standard target to calibrate a scatterometer like that proposed for the National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS). Backscattering observations made by the SEASAT Scatterometer System (SASS) showed the Amazon rain forest to be a homogeneous, azimuthally-isotropic, radar target which was insensitive to polarization. The variation with angle of incidence was adequately modeled as scattering coefficient (dB) = a theta b with typical values for the incidence-angle coefficient from 0.07 to 0.15 dB/deg. A small diurnal effect occurs, with measurements at sunrise being 0.5 dB to 1 dB higher than the rest of the day. Maximum-likelihood estimation algorithms presented here permit determination of relative bias and true pointing angle for each beam. Specific implementation of these algorithms for the proposed NOSS scatterometer system is also discussed.

Birrer, I. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Off-nadir antenna bias correction using Amazon rain forest sigma deg data

The radar response from the Amazon rain forest was studied to determine the suitability of this region for use as a standard target to calibrate a scatterometer like that proposed for the National Ocean Satellite System (NOSS). Backscattering observations made by the SEASAT-1 scatterometer system show the Amazon rain forest to be a homogeneous, azimuthally-isotropic, radar target which is insensitive to polarization. The variation with angle of incidence may be adequately modeled as sigma deg (dB) = alpha theta + beta with typical values for the incidence-angle coefficient from 0.07 dB deg to 0.15 dB/deg. A small diurnal effect occurs, with measurements at sunrise being 0.5 dB to 1 dB higher than the rest of the day. Maximum likelihood estimation algorithms are presented which permit determination of relative bias and true pointing angle for each beam. Specific implementation of these algorithms for the proposed NOSS scatterometer system is also discussed.

Birrer, I. J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic‐boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8‐day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re‐parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

land data assimilation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT biases and errors for flux estimates

We characterize the magnitude of seasonally and spatially varying biases in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Version 8 (v8) and the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) version 7.3 (v7.3) satellite CO2 retrievals by comparisons to measurements collected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) experiment, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) aircraft, and surface stations. Although the ACOS-GOSAT estimates of the column averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2) have larger random errors than the OCO-2 XCO2 estimates, and the space-based estimates over land have larger random errors than those over ocean, the systematic errors are similar across both satellites and surface types, 0.6 ± 0.1 ppm. We find similar estimates of systematic error whether dynamic versus geometric coincidences or ESRL/DOE aircraft versus TCCON are used for validation (over land), once validation and co-location errors are accounted for. We also find that areas with sparse throughput of good quality data (due to quality flags and preprocessor selection) over land have ~double the error of regions of high-throughput of good quality data. We characterize both raw and bias-corrected results, finding that bias correction improves systematic errors by a factor of 2 for land observations and improves errors by ~0.2 ppm for ocean. We validate the lowermost tropospheric (LMT) product for OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT by comparison to aircraft and surface sites, finding systematic errors of ~1.1 ppm, while having 2-3 times the variability of XCO2. We characterize the time and distance scales of correlations for OCO-2 XCO2 errors, and find error correlations on scales of 0.3 degrees, 5-10 degrees, and 60 days. We find comparable scale lengths for the bias correction term. Assimilation of the OCO-2 bias correction term is used to estimate flux errors resulting from OCO-2 seasonal biases, finding annual flux errors on the order of 0.3 and 0.4 PgC/yr for Transcom-3 ocean and land regions, respectively.

Susan S Kulawik↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improvement in the Characterization of MODIS Subframe Difference

MODIS is a key instrument of NASA's Earth Observing System. It has successfully operated for 16+ years on the Terra satellite and 14+ years on the Aqua satellite, respectively. MODIS has 36 spectral bands at three different nadir spatial resolutions, 250m (bands 1-2), 500m (bands 3-7), and 1km (bands 8-36). MODIS subframe measurement is designed for bands 1-7 to match their spatial resolution in the scan direction to that of the track direction. Within each 1 km frame, the MODIS 250 m resolution bands sample four subframes and the 500 m resolution bands sample two subframes. The detector gains are calibrated at a subframe level. Due to calibration differences between subframes, noticeable subframe striping is observed in the Level 1B (L1B) products, which exhibit a predominant radiance-level dependence. This paper presents results of subframe differences from various onboard and earth-view data sources (e.g. solar diffuser, electronic calibration, spectro-radiometric calibration assembly, Earth view, etc.). A subframe bias correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the subframe striping in MODIS L1B image. The algorithm has been tested using sample L1B images and the vertical striping at lower radiance value is mitigated after applying the corrections. The subframe bias correction approach will be considered for implementation in future versions of the calibration algorithm.

Li, Yonghong↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Evaluation of Combined Daily Gauge Observations and Rainfall Satellite Estimations over Continental South America

This paper describes a comprehensive assessment of a new high-resolution, high-quality gauge-satellite based analysis of daily precipitation over continental South America during 2004. This methodology is based on a combination of additive and multiplicative bias correction schemes in order to get the lowest bias when compared with the observed values. Inter-comparisons and cross-validations tests have been carried out for the control algorithm (TMPA real-time algorithm) and different merging schemes: additive bias correction (ADD), ratio bias correction (RAT) and TMPA research version, for different months belonging to different seasons and for different network densities. All compared merging schemes produce better results than the control algorithm, but when finer temporal (daily) and spatial scale (regional networks) gauge datasets is included in the analysis, the improvement is remarkable. The Combined Scheme (CoSch) presents consistently the best performance among the five techniques. This is also true when a degraded daily gauge network is used instead of full dataset. This technique appears a suitable tool to produce real-time, high-resolution, high-quality gauge-satellite based analyses of daily precipitation over land in regional domains.

Vila, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1986

Number-counts slope estimation in the presence of Poisson noise

The slope determination of a power-law number flux relationship in the case of photon-limited sampling. This case is important for high-sensitivity X-ray surveys with imaging telescopes, where the error in an individual source measurement depends on integrated flux and is Poisson, rather than Gaussian, distributed. A bias-free method of slope estimation is developed that takes into account the exact error distribution, the influence of background noise, and the effects of varying limiting sensitivities. It is shown that the resulting bias corrections are quite insensitive to the bias correction procedures applied, as long as only sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or greater are considered. However, if sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or less are included, the derived bias corrections depend sensitively on the shape of the error distribution.

Schmitt, Juergen H. M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2012

Improving the Accuracy of the AFWA-NASA (ANSA) Blended Snow-Cover Product over the Lower Great Lakes Region

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) -- NASA blended snow-cover product, called ANSA, utilizes Earth Observing System standard snow products from the Moderate- Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) to map daily snow cover and snow-water equivalent (SWE) globally. We have compared ANSA-derived SWE with SWE values calculated from snow depths reported at ~1500 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) co-op stations in the Lower Great Lakes Basin. Compared to station data, the ANSA significantly underestimates SWE in densely-forested areas. We use two methods to remove some of the bias observed in forested areas to reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the ANSA- and station-derived SWE. First, we calculated a 5- year mean ANSA-derived SWE for the winters of 2005-06 through 2009-10, and developed a five-year mean bias-corrected SWE map for each month. For most of the months studied during the five-year period, the 5-year bias correction improved the agreement between the ANSA-derived and station-derived SWE. However, anomalous months such as when there was very little snow on the ground compared to the 5-year mean, or months in which the snow was much greater than the 5-year mean, showed poorer results (as expected). We also used a 7-day running mean (7DRM) bias correction method using days just prior to the day in question to correct the ANSA data. This method was more effective in reducing the RMSE between the ANSA- and co-op-derived SWE values, and in capturing the effects of anomalous snow conditions.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Utility of Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals over Irrigated Areas and the Ability of Land Data Assimilation Methods to Correct for Unmodeled Processes

Earth's land surface is characterized by tremendous natural heterogeneity and human-engineered modifications, both of which are challenging to represent in land surface models. Satellite remote sensing is often the most practical and effective method to observe the land surface over large geographical areas. Agricultural irrigation is an important human-induced modification to natural land surface processes, as it is pervasive across the world and because of its significant influence on the regional and global water budgets. In this article, irrigation is used as an example of a human-engineered, often unmodeled land surface process, and the utility of satellite soil moisture retrievals over irrigated areas in the continental US is examined. Such retrievals are based on passive or active microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, WindSat and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). The analysis suggests that the skill of these retrievals for representing irrigation effects is mixed, with ASCAT-based products somewhat more skillful than SMOS and AMSR2 products. The article then examines the suitability of typical bias correction strategies in current land data assimilation systems when unmodeled processes dominate the bias between the model and the observations. Using a suite of synthetic experiments that includes bias correction strategies such as quantile mapping and trained forward modeling, it is demonstrated that the bias correction practices lead to the exclusion of the signals from unmodeled processes, if these processes are the major source of the biases. It is further shown that new methods are needed to preserve the observational information about unmodeled processes during data assimilation.

land data↗
NASA NTRS1982

An experimental verification of laser-velocimeter sampling bias and its correction

The existence of 'sampling bias' in individual-realization laser velocimeter measurements is experimentally verified and shown to be independent of sample rate. The experiments were performed in a simple two-stream mixing shear flow with the standard for comparison being laser-velocimeter results obtained under continuous-wave conditions. It is also demonstrated that the errors resulting from sampling bias can be removed by a proper interpretation of the sampling statistics. In addition, data obtained in a shock-induced separated flow and in the near-wake of airfoils are presented, both bias-corrected and uncorrected, to illustrate the effects of sampling bias in the extreme.

Johnson, D. A.↗