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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Cloud cover archiving on a global scale - A discussion of principles

Monitoring of climatic variability and climate modeling both require a reliable global cloud data set. Examination is made of the temporal and spatial variability of cloudiness in light of recommendations made by GARP in 1975 (and updated by JOC in 1978 and 1980) for cloud data archiving. An examination of the methods of comparing cloud cover frequency curves suggests that the use of the beta distribution not only facilitates objective comparison, but also reduces overall storage requirements. A specific study of the only current global cloud climatology (the U.S. Air Force's 3-dimensional nephanalysis) over the United Kingdom indicates that discussion of methods of validating satellite-based data sets is urgently required.

Henderson-Sellers, A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

How Well Does the Latest Anthropomorphic Test Device Mimic Human Impact Responses?

One of the goals of the NASA Occupant Protection Group is to understand the human tolerance to dynamic loading. This knowledge has to come through indirect approaches such as existing human response databases, anthropometric test devices (ATD), animal testing, post‐mortem human subjects, and models. This study investigated the biofidelity of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's ATD named the THOR (test device for human occupant restraint). If THOR responds comparably to humans, then it could potentially be used as a human surrogate to help validate space vehicle requirements for occupant protection. The THOR responses to frontal and spinal impacts (ranging from 8 to 12 G with rise times of 40, 70, and 100 ms) were measured and compared to human volunteer responses (95 trials in frontal and 58 in spinal) previously collected by the U. S. Air Force on the same horizontal impact accelerator. The impact acceleration profiles tested are within the expected range of multi‐purpose crew vehicle (MPCV) landing dynamics. A correlation score was calculated for each THOR to human comparison using CORA (CORrelation and Analysis) software. A two‐parameter beta distribution model fit was obtained for each dependent variable using maximum likelihood estimation. For frontal impacts, the THOR head x‐acceleration peak response correlated with the human response at 8 and 10‐G 100 ms but not 10‐G 70 ms. The phase lagged the human response. Head z‐acceleration was not correlated. Chest x‐acceleration was in phase, had a higher peak response, and was well correlated with lighter subjects (Cora = 0.8 for 46 kg vs. Cora = 0.4 for 126 kg). Head x‐displacement had a leading phase. Several subjects responded with the same peak displacement but the mean of the group was lower. The shoulder x‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks than the human response. For spinal impacts, the THOR head x‐acceleration was not well correlated. Head and chest z‐acceleration was in phase but had a higher peak response. Chest z‐acceleration was highly correlated with heavier subjects at lower G pulses (Cora = 0.86 for 125 kg at 8 G). The human response was variable in shoulder z‐displacement but the THOR was in phase and was comparable to the mean peak response. Head xand z‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks. Seat pan forces were well correlated, were in phase, but had a larger peak response than most subjects. The THOR does not respond to frontal and spinal impacts exactly the same way that a human does. Some responses are well matched and others are not. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of this ATD is an important first step in determining its usefulness in occupant protection at NASA

Newby, N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

How Well Does the Latest Anthropomorphic Test Device Mimic Human Impact Responses?

One of the goals of the NASA Occupant Protection Group is to understand the human tolerance to dynamic loading. This knowledge has to come through indirect approaches such as existing human response databases, anthropometric test devices (ATD), animal testing, post-­‐mortem human subjects, and models. This study investigated the biofidelity of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's ATD named the THOR (test device for human occupant restraint). If THOR responds comparably to humans, then it could potentially be used as a human surrogate to help validate space vehicle requirements for occupant protection. The THOR responses to frontal and spinal impacts (ranging from 8 to 12 G with rise times of 40, 70, and 100 ms) were measured and compared to human volunteer responses (95 trials in frontal and 58 in spinal) previously collected by the U. S. Air Force on the same horizontal impact accelerator. The impact acceleration profiles tested are within the expected range of multi-­‐purpose crew vehicle (MPCV) landing dynamics. A correlation score was calculated for each THOR to human comparison using CORA (CORrelation and Analysis) software. A two-­‐parameter beta distribution model fit was obtained for each dependent variable using maximum likelihood estimation. For frontal impacts, the THOR head x-­‐acceleration peak response correlated with the human response at 8 and 10-­‐G 100 ms but not 10-­‐G 70 ms. The phase lagged the human response. Head z-­‐acceleration was not correlated. Chest x-­‐acceleration was in phase, had a higher peak response, and was well correlated with lighter subjects (Cora = 0.8 for 46 kg vs. Cora = 0.4 for 126 kg). Head x-­‐displacement had a leading phase. Several subjects responded with the same peak displacement but the mean of the group was lower. The shoulder x-­‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks than the human response. For spinal impacts, the THOR head x-­‐acceleration was not well correlated. Head and chest z-­‐acceleration was in phase but had a higher peak response. Chest z-­‐acceleration was highly correlated with heavier subjects at lower G pulses (Cora = 0.86 for 125 kg at 8 G). The human response was variable in shoulder z-­‐displacement but the THOR was in phase and was comparable to the mean peak response. Head x-­‐ and z-­‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks. Seat pan forces were well correlated, were in phase, but had a larger peak response than most subjects. The THOR does not respond to frontal and spinal impacts exactly the same way that a human does. Some responses are well matched and others are not. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of this ATD is an important first step in determining its usefulness in occupant protection at NASA

Newby, Nate↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructure-Based Estimation of Strength and Ductility Distributions for \(\alpha +\beta \) Titanium Alloys

Titanium alloys are processed to develop a wide range of microstructure configurations and therefore material properties. While these properties are typically measured experimentally, a framework for property prediction could greatly enhance alloy design and manufacturing. In this work, a microstructure-sensitive framework is presented for the prediction of strength and ductility as well as estimates of the bounds in variability for these properties. The framework explicitly considers distributions of microstructure via new approaches for instantiation of structure in synthetic samples. The parametric evaluation strategy, including the finite element simulation package FEpX, is used to create and test virtual polycrystalline samples to evaluate the variability bounds of mechanical properties in Ti-6Al-4V. Critical parameters for the property evaluation framework are provided by measurements of single crystal properties and advanced characterization of microstructure and slip system strengths in 2D and 3D. Property distributions for yield strength and ductility are presented, along with the validation and verification steps undertaken. Comparisons between strain localization and slip activity in virtual samples and in experimental grain-scale strain measurements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Boundary of the Distribution of Solar Wind Proton Beta versus Temperature Anisotropy

Abstract The frequency distribution of solar wind protons, measured in the vicinity of Earth’s orbit, is customarily plotted in ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space. Here, T ⊥ / T ∥ is the ratio of perpendicular and parallel temperatures, and β ∥ = 8 π nT ∥ / B 2 is the ratio of parallel thermal energy to background magnetic field energy, the so-called “parallel beta,” with ⊥ and ∥ denoting directions with respect to the ambient magnetic field. Such a frequency distribution, plotted as a two-dimensional histogram, forms a peculiar rhombic shape defined with an outer boundary in the said phase space. Past studies reveal that the threshold conditions for temperature anisotropy–driven plasma instability partially account for the boundary on the high- β ∥ side. The low- β ∥ side remains largely unexplained despite some efforts. Work by Vafin et al. recently showed that certain contours of collisional relaxation frequency, ν pp , when parameterized by T ⊥ / T ∥ and β ∥ , could match the overall shape of the left-hand boundary, thus suggesting that the collisional relaxation process might be closely related to the formation of the left-hand boundary. The present paper extends the analysis by Vafin et al. and carries out the dynamical computation of the collisional relaxation process for an ensemble of initial proton states with varying degrees of anisotropic temperatures. The final states of the relaxed protons are shown to closely match the observed boundary to the left of the ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space. When coupled with a similar set of calculations for the ensemble in the collective instability regime, it is found that the combined collisional/collective effects provide the baseline explanation for the observation.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1974

Electromagnetic instability in high-beta plasmas with generalized distribution functions

The electrostatic instabilities in an anisotropic plasma have been studied quite extensively, but the electromagnetic instabilities in high-beta plasmas, where they play an important role, have not been thoroughly investigated. Recently, Davidson and Wu (1970) looked into the ordinary mode electromagnetic instability which can arise in high-beta bi-Maxwellian plasmas. Here, the magnetic instability is discussed in (A, beta) space (A is the anisotropy in the temperature of the plasma species and beta is the ratio of the kinetic pressure to the magnetic pressure), which can occur in generalized non-Maxwellian plasmas with an inverted population of different species.

Buti, B.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar wind parameters and magnetospheric coupling studies

This paper presents distributions, means, and standard deviations of the fluxes of solar wind protons, momentum, and energy as observed near earth during the solar quiet and active years 1976 and 1979. Distributions of ratios of energies (Alfven Mach number, plasma beta) and distributions of interplanetary magnetic field orientations are also given. Finally, the uncertainties associated with the use of the libration point orbiting ISEE-3 spacecraft as a solar wind monitor are discussed.

King, Joseph H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The UV dayglow 2, Ly-alpha and Ly-beta emissions and the H distribution in the mesosphere and thermosphere

Rocket observations of the Lyman alpha and Lyman beta day airglow are analyzed using a nonisothermal spherical model of the radiation field. This new model provides, for the first time, a method of determining atomic hydrogen densities in the mesosphere and thermosphere. Interpretation of Lyman alpha data taken between 80 and 260 km is consistent with current mesospheric and thermospheric models, with H density equal to 1.9 x 10 to the 7th/cu cm at 100 km. Analysis of 1025 A data suggests that the emission is dominated by Lyman beta with perhaps as much as a 30% contribution from OI 1027.

Anderson, D. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A Bayesian analysis of two probability models describing thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida

A Bayesian analysis of the two discrete probability models, the negative binomial and the modified negative binomial distributions, which have been used to describe thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is presented. The Bayesian approach with beta prior distributions is compared to the classical approach which uses a moment method of estimation or a maximum-likelihood method. The accuracy and simplicity of the Bayesian method is demonstrated.

Williford, W. O.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Migration of Al within dealuminated beta extruded catalysts influences olefin distribution during ethanol upgrading

Zeolites serve as essential catalytic platforms for many industrial processes, including emerging ethanol-to-olefins (ETO) upgrading technologies. Although metal-loaded (Cu, Zn, Y) dealuminated beta (deAlBeta) zeolite powders are promising catalysts for direct ETO conversion with high selectivity to butene-rich C3+ olefins necessary for production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), development of these materials as shaped technical bodies through the incorporation of binders is required for scale-up and commercial viability. Here, we report the ethanol upgrading performance of Cu-Zn-Y/deAlBeta extruded catalysts formulated with either alumina or kaolin clay binders. Both extrudates exhibit high ethanol dehydration reactivity which competes with the initial ethanol dehydrogenation step in the direct ETO reaction network. Consequently, elevated selectivity to dehydration side products (ethylene, diethyl ether) at ∼100% ethanol conversion is observed on Cu-Zn-Y/deAlBeta extrudates compared to the powder catalyst, which inhibits production of desired C3+ olefins. Utilizing microscopy and spectroscopic characterizations, we attribute this to Al migration from binder to zeolite particles within the extrudates, thus re-aluminating the zeolite and generating Brønsted acid sites active for dehydration reactions. This work elucidates the effects of binder incorporation on ETO product distributions and emphasizes that binder selection must be carefully considered during design of extruded zeolite catalysts.

Jacobs, Hunter [ORNL] (ORCID:000000016190874X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of SPND Beta-Current in AP1000 core

The Self-Powered Neutron Detectors (SPNDs) are widely used in Generation-III commercial PWR due to its small size and external-power free character. It can measure the in-core neutron flux density immediately to obtain the power profile in the core. To better understand the actual state of the simulated core, a SPND beta-current simulation module has been established in the NECP-Bamboo code. Firstly, neutron simulation is carried out in the lattice code Bamboo-Lattice together with nuclide depletion simulation to obtain the depleted composition of the entire lattice including the SPND, and the few-group parameters including density and cross section of emitter material. Secondly, the depleted lattice can then be piped into a Monte-Carlo code for neutron-photon-electron simulation to obtain the electron escape efficiency from the emitter of the SPND to the corresponding collector. Thirdly, the electron escape efficiency can be parameterized into the function of the lattice state parameters similarly to the common few-group constants. Finally, the beta-current was calculated by the core code Bamboo-Core simultaneously with the simulation of the core operation process. The beta-current of the Vanadium SPND in the AP1000 core was simulated and analyzed in this paper. Comparison between simulation and measurement of the beta-current distribution in the specific core state is shown in this paper to verify the effectiveness of the method and the code. The radial normalized current distribution is in good agreement with the measurement. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep level defects in low-pressure chemical vapor deposition grown (010) β-Ga 2 O 3

This study provides the full-bandgap evaluation of defect state distributions in beta phase gallium oxide (β-Ga 2 O 3 ) grown by low-pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) on (010) β-Ga 2 O 3 substrates at high growth of up to 20 µm/h. Deep-level optical spectroscopy and deep-level transient spectroscopy measurements applied to Ni/β-Ga 2 O 3 Schottky diodes revealed the presence of a previously unreported defect state at E C -3.6 eV, which dominated the overall trap distribution in LPCVD grown material. However, states at E C -0.8 eV, E C -2.0 eV, and E C -4.4. eV were also detected, similar to prior studies on β-Ga 2 O 3 grown by other methods, with similar or lower concentrations for the LPCVD samples. The E C -0.8 eV and E C -2.0 eV states were previously connected to residual Fe impurities and gallium vacancies, respectively. The total concentration of traps in the LPCVD material was on par with or lower than the state-of-the-art metal–organic chemical vapor deposition-grown materials despite the much higher growth rate, and the distribution of states showed negligible dependence on SiCl 4 flow rate and doping concentration. These results demonstrate that the high growth rate of LPCVD-grown β-Ga 2 O 3 is very promising for achieving thick, low defect density, and high-quality layers needed for multi-kV device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesh-Sequenced Realizations for Evaluation of Subgrid-Scale Models for Turbulent Combustion

This paper develops a new approach for analysis of subgrid closures for turbulent combustion as modeled using direct quadrature (finite-rate chemistry) techniques. The approach, termed multiresolution analysis through mesh-sequenced realizations (MRA-MSR), conducts simultaneous, constrained large-eddy simulations on a set of hierarchically coarsened meshes. Furthermore, the availability of underlying fine-mesh (subgrid) data corresponding to coarse-mesh locations allows a clearer assessment of the effects of unresolved fluctuations on apparent reactivity. A key to MRA-MSR is the correlation of eddy structures at coarser mesh levels, which is facilitated by the transfer of filtered fine-mesh velocity information. A seven-mesh MRA-MSR hierarchy using three resolution levels is applied to one of the Sydney bluff-body stabilized methane–hydrogen flames. Analysis of the simultaneously evolved data at different resolution levels reveals several interesting trends. First, at high Damköhler numbers, there is clear evidence of attenuation of apparent reactivity due to the effects of unresolved fluctuations. Secondly, single-point, single-time filtered density functions of a normalized subgrid Damköhler number show a characteristic beta probability density function (PDF) form and display evidence of scale similarity. Interrogation of the MRA-MSR database also shows that the recently-proposed least-squares minimization (LSM) turbulence–chemistry interaction model can account for the observed diminishment in reactivity at high Damköhler numbers but cannot reduce scatter significantly. A new form of the LSM model, which makes use of the normalized subgrid Damköhler number beta PDF distribution, performs slightly better than the original model, illustrating the potential of MRA-MSR both in assessing existing closure concepts and in developing new ones.

42 ENGINEERING↗