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DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Graphite Characterization

Baseline Graphite Characterization: Purpose of Baseline, Mechanical Baseline Tests, Physical Properties Tests, Methodology, Baseline progress, Density, Ultimate Tensile Strength, PCEA Ultimate Tensile Strength, Split Disc Tests, Compression Tests, Flexural Tests, and Coefficient of Thermal Expansion.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino oscillation prospects with a dual-baseline beam from BNL to SNOLAB and SURF

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is a next-generation accelerator primarily designed to study the internal structure of nucleons through high-precision electron-hadron collisions. In this work, we explore the feasibility of employing a 1 MW fraction of the EIC proton beam to generate a high-intensity GeV-scale neutrino beam for long-baseline oscillation studies. We have simulated proton-target interactions and optimize the resulting neutrino fluxes for water-based liquid scintillator (WbLS) detectors located at distinct baselines of 900 km and at 2900 km. Oscillation analyses performed with GLoBES show that extended baselines allow access to multiple oscillation maxima, significantly enhancing sensitivity to leptonic CP violation. The study also examines the interplay between matter effects and the intrinsic CP violating phase in shaping observable asymmetries. We note that simplified systematics and no backgrounds are used in this analysis to establish the baseline physics potential. These results suggest that the EIC proton beam could provide a novel and complementary source for precision neutrino physics, extending the scientific reach of the EIC program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar parameters in long-baseline accelerator neutrino oscillations

Long-baseline (LBL) accelerator neutrino oscillation experiments, such as NOvA and T2K in the current generation, and DUNE-LBL and HK-LBL in the coming years, will measure the remaining unknown oscillation parameters with excellent precision. These analyses assume external input on the so-called “solar parameters,” θ 12 and $Δm^{2}_{21}$, from solar experiments such as SNO, SK, and Borexino, as well as reactor experiments like KamLAND. Here we investigate their role in long-baseline experiments. We show that, without external input on $Δm^{2}_{21}$ and θ 12 , the sensitivity to detecting and quantifying CP violation is significantly, but not entirely, reduced. Thus long-baseline accelerator experiments can actually determine $Δm^{2}_{21}$ and θ 12 , and thus all six oscillation parameters, without input from any other oscillation experiment. In particular, $Δm^{2}_{21}$ can be determined; thus DUNE-LBL and HK-LBL can measure both the solar and atmospheric mass splittings in their long-baseline analyses alone. While their sensitivities are not competitive with existing constraints, they are very orthogonal probes of solar parameters and provide a key consistency check of a less probed sector of the three-flavor oscillation picture. Furthermore, we also show that the true values of $Δm^{2}_{21}$ and θ 12 play an important role in the sensitivity of other oscillation parameters such as the CP violating phase δ.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry: summary of the second workshop

This summary of the second Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry (TVLBAI) Workshop provides a comprehensive overview of our meeting held in London in April 2024 (Second Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry Workshop, Imperial College, April 2024), building on the initial discussions during the inaugural workshop held at CERN in March 2023 (First Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry Workshop, CERN, March 2023). Like the summary of the first workshop (Abend et al. in AVS Quantum Sci. 6:024701, 2024), this document records a critical milestone for the international atom interferometry community. It documents our concerted efforts to evaluate progress, address emerging challenges, and refine strategic directions for future large-scale atom interferometry projects. Our commitment to collaboration is manifested by the integration of diverse expertise and the coordination of international resources, all aimed at advancing the frontiers of atom interferometry physics and technology, as set out in a Memorandum of Understanding signed by over 50 institutions (Memorandum of Understanding for the Terrestrial Very Long Baseline Atom Interferometer Study).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cradle-to-Gate Life Cycle Analysis Baseline for United States Coal Mining and Delivery

The goal of this study is to highlight the environmental impacts from upstream coal production to its delivery at a power plant. This study is meant to characterize different coal basins, coal types, and mine types used to produce electric power in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions in the United States using a functional unit of 1 kg of coal. The boundary of this study includes underground or surface extraction, water use at the mine, ventilation, coal handling, coal cleaning, mine tailing disposal, and transportation via conveyer belt, truck, ocean vessel, barge, and train. See the following URLs for accompanying documents: NETL Coal Baseline Model - Transportation Inventories: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=27ea1ba4-6ea9-4ee5-8b32-d7fce7f4e1e0. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Basin Inventories: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0f290eed-5e4b-4b5f-bec0-36b0ea89c6e5. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Excel file: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0dc18730-4214-4878-8a0f-d1941c45123c. NETL Coal Baseline Model - Open LCA model: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=0c0dde04-0d3c-4c7f-bd33-2745e061b8e0.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Examination of 3013 Containers Baseline Surface Features

The Surveillance and Monitoring Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was tasked with evaluating the baseline features of 3013 containers. This baseline is to be used as a basis for comparison for 3013 containers that had been packaged with corrosive plutonium materials. The LANL team evaluated an unwelded container, an unused welded container, and a welded container that had held plutonium metal without any corrosive impurities. These three containers had features with depths no larger than 6 µm and had similar depth distributions. The features observed in the baseline containers were all shallower than those seen in containers packaged with corrosive plutonium materials. This work establishes workflows for feature identification and measurement, as well as establishment of baseline data for future comparison with corroded containers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Near Detector Selection for Neutral Current Disappearance Search at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program

Various short baseline neutrino experiments observe anomalies that challenge the three-flavor neutrino oscillation model, consistent with a hypothetical “sterile” neutrino that does not interact via the weak force. This poster presents a near detector event selection at the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND), developed for the first search for neutral current (NC) disappearance at short-baseline experiments. NC disappearance provides ``smoking gun” insight into the sterile neutrino question because NC interactions are equally sensitive to all three active neutrinos, meaning any change in the NC interaction rate between near and far detectors cannot be explained by oscillations among known flavor states. This analysis focuses on the NC1p topology, the most common NC interaction type at the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. NC topologies are inherently challenging due to their low light yield and the absence of an outgoing charged lepton, which complicates identification and leads to poor energy reconstruction as the outgoing neutrino carries away a large portion of the neutrino’s initial energy. This work presents an NC1p event selection at the near detector, highlighting SBND’s impressive detector capabilities, including trigger efficiency studies. Combined with a novel kinematic energy reconstruction technique leveraging the detector’s outstanding hadronic detail, this analysis establishes a robust near detector foundation to target an NC disappearance measurement consistent with the 3$+$1 sterile neutrino model. This SBND selection will soon be combined with the far detector to conduct an NC disappearance search, providing unique insight and complementary information to traditional charged current searches and advancing the SBN Program’s goal to resolve the sterile neutrino question, including 3$+$1 searches and beyond.

Nicole Pallat, Nicole Pallat [Minnesota U.] (ORCID↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design and Modeling of an Open-Source Baseline Floating Marine Turbine: Preprint

Marine energy resources such as river, tidal, and ocean currents can provide abundant, predictable, and clean power to both densely populated and remote communities globally. However, marine turbine technologies are still in an early stage of development. Recently, features have been added to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open-source wind turbine modeling tool OpenFAST to support the simulation of axial-flow marine turbines. These new features enable marine energy developers to predict the performance and safety of their turbines and allow researchers and students to advance the field through the exploration of novel designs. Developing and demonstrating the new capabilities of OpenFAST for marine turbines requires a baseline design that can be used as an example and test case. There are limited open-source turbine models suitable for this purpose. One existing baseline design is the Reference Model 1 (RM1), a fixed-bottom, dual-rotor marine turbine that was published in 2014 as part of the Department of Energy's Water Power Reference Model Project. To test and demonstrate OpenFAST's ability to model floating marine turbines, several modifications were made to the RM1. A floating platform and mooring system were designed to support a single RM1 rotor in a wide range of possible current and wave conditions. The system and model are intended to be a stable reference case and starting point for research efforts. The platform features all cylindrical members and familiar design elements from the offshore wind industry; the mooring system uses simple catenary chains. While not optimized for the lowest platform cost, the design is understandable and robust and can serve as a baseline for floating marine turbine technologies. This is a useful starting point for studies to explore new technologies or design methodologies. Additionally, the floating RM1 design enables cross-collaboration among industry, academia, and national lab researchers and serves as an educational platform for newcomers to marine energy. This short paper presents the specifications of the turbine, including its floating support structure and mooring system. The rationale behind the selection of certain design parameters is described. To enable adoption of this baseline case for research and educational efforts, an OpenFAST model of the full system has been made publicly available at https://github.com/OpenFAST/r-test/tree/main/glue-codes/openfast/MHK_RM1_Floating.

floating↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-technology building system retrofits for utility incentive programs: Savings, costs and baseline considerations

Utility incentive programs are an important channel to support the deployment of energy efficiency in buildings. To date, these programs have largely been limited to single-component strategies. However, many utilities are now motivated to identify and develop multi-component system retrofits to achieve deeper energy savings, which are essential to achieving broader energy and greenhouse gas reduction goals in the buildings sector. In this paper we present the energy savings, demand reductions, and cost-effectiveness of 16 systems retrofit packages in six utility regions in the United States. These results are being used by these utilities to inform and develop incentive programs for systems retrofits. Our analysis shows that packages with proven lighting and HVAC measures can provide 5–22% whole building annual energy savings, and 13–22% annual energy costs savings, using utility incentive program baselines (code and existing building). The packages are reasonably cost effective for replace-on-burnout but generally not for a retrofit scenario prior to end of equipment life. Demand response can increase both the energy savings and energy cost savings, further improving the cost effectiveness of these packages. We analyzed the impact of using existing building vs. code baselines for calculating savings, showing that the choice of baseline in developing utility incentive programs has a substantial impact on the attributable energy savings to a program, with significant implications for the overall viability of a program (generally savings against existing building condition are higher and improve project and program cost-effectiveness).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

First Very Long Baseline Interferometry Detections at 870μm

The first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) detections at 870$\mu$m wavelength (345$\,$GHz frequency) are reported, achieving the highest diffraction-limited angular resolution yet obtained from the surface of the Earth, and the highest-frequency example of the VLBI technique to date. These include strong detections for multiple sources observed on inter-continental baselines between telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, and Spain, obtained during observations in October 2018. The longest-baseline detections approach 11$\,$G$\lambda$ corresponding to an angular resolution, or fringe spacing, of 19$\mu$as. The Allan deviation of the visibility phase at 870$\mu$m is comparable to that at 1.3$\,$mm on the relevant integration time scales between 2 and 100$\,$s. The detections confirm that the sensitivity and signal chain stability of stations in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array are suitable for VLBI observations at 870$\mu$m. Operation at this short wavelength, combined with anticipated enhancements of the EHT, will lead to a unique high angular resolution instrument for black hole studies, capable of resolving the event horizons of supermassive black holes in both space and time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

WaterTAP3 Model Input Data for NAWI's Eight Source Water Baseline Analyses

This folder contains the input data for the WaterTAP3 model that was used for the eight NAWI (National Alliance for Water Innovation) source water baselines studies published in the Environmental Science and Technology special issue: Technology Baselines and Innovation Priorities for Water Treatment and Supply. There are also eight other separate DAMS submissions, one per source water, that include the model results for the published studies. In this data submission, all model inputs across the eight baselines are included. The data structure and content are described in a README.txt file. For more details on how to use the data in WaterTAP3 please refer to the model documentation and GitHub site found at "WaterTAP3 Github" linked in the submission resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report ? NBG-17 Billet V104

The purpose of this report is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite regarding individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information being collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for NBG-17 Billet V104 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians. Millions of raw data points have been collected during testing and quantification analyses for these billets. The summary scalar property values and supplementary traceability data are collected into comprehensive spreadsheets. Data sets are composed of single billets of graphite for any given grade, organized by mechanical test-specimen type, and further subdivided into individual spreadsheet tabs according to the specific test or evaluation being performed. A direct analysis of properties was not conducted, and this report does not provide information on the validity or performance characteristics of the graphite itself. Rather, this report is intended as a verification of the completeness of actual data collected in accordance with PLN-3467, “Baseline Graphite Characterization Plan: Electromechanical Testing,” [1] and PLN-3348 “Graphite Mechanical Testing” [2] and their representation of the measurement and test results with sole regard to the graphite billets under evaluation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Association Between Baseline Hepatic or Renal Function and Clinical Outcomes for Patients With Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With a PD –1/PD– L1 Blocking Antibody Using Real–World and Trial Data

Clinical trials have demonstrated the benefit of PD-1/PD-L1 blocking antibodies for the treatment of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in defined patient populations that often exclude patients with moderate or severe hepatic or renal impairment. We assessed the association between overall survival (OS) and baseline organ function in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with PD-1/PD-L1 blocking antibodies in real-world data (RWD; patient-level data from electronic health records) and pooled clinical trial data submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The Kaplan–Meier estimator was used to estimate OS in different subgroups based on organ function. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between OS and organ function. In this hypothesis-generating study, baseline renal impairment did not appear to be associated with OS, while patients with baseline liver impairment had shorter OS. RWD provided information on a broader range of renal and hepatic function than was evaluated in clinical trials and hold promise to complement trial data in better understanding populations not represented in clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ROADRUNNER uranium nitride MiniFuel: Experimental design, fabrication and pre-irradiation baseline characterization for accelerated burnup testing

Uranium nitride (UN) is a promising fuel candidate for advanced reactor systems owing to its high uranium density and thermal conductivity; however, its qualification remains constrained by the scarcity of well-controlled irradiation performance data. Here, to address this limitation, the ROADRUNNER (Research On ADvancing the peRformance of UraNium Nitrides in Extreme enviRonments) campaign employs the MiniFuel platform in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to enable accelerated burnup irradiation testing under tightly controlled and largely isothermal conditions. This paper presents the experimental design, fuel fabrication, and pre-irradiation baseline characterization of the ROADRUNNER UN MiniFuel campaign. Thirty-six UN minidisc specimens were fabricated with systematically varied as-fabricated density (86–96% of theoretical density), carbon impurity content (961–5240 ppm), oxygen content (≤ ∼2000 ppm), and grain size (2.5–24 μm). The irradiation matrix spans nominal fuel temperatures of 873 K, 1173 K, and 1473 K and target burnups of 3.75%, 6.0%, and 7.5% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Neutronic and thermal analyses were performed to define specimen-specific burnup accumulation and temperature histories, establishing the boundary conditions for subsequent in-pile behavior. Comprehensive pre-irradiation characterization—including dimensional metrology, density verification, impurity analysis, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray computed tomography, and confocal profilometry—provides a detailed baseline for post-irradiation examination. Pre-irradiation data were further used to generate predictive estimates of fission gas release and swelling using existing empirical correlations. This quantitative comparison reveals substantial inter-model divergence at intermediate and elevated temperatures that exceeds propagated input uncertainties, highlighting structural gaps in the historical irradiation database. The ROADRUNNER irradiation campaign is currently underway in HFIR, with initial firs cycle completed in late 2025 and remaining targets scheduled through 2027. The experimental design and baseline dataset presented here establish the framework needed to interpret forthcoming post-irradiation measurements and to provide discriminating data for the validation and refinement of physics-based UN fuel performance models.

Lopes, Denise Adorno [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗