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DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Atmosphere and Ocean Horizontal Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone and Upper-Ocean Response Forecasts in Four Major Hurricanes

A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updraft Width Modulates Ambient Atmospheric Controls on Convective Cloud Depth

Abstract The depth of convective clouds affects vertical transport of atmospheric constituents, influencing downstream weather and climate. Atmospheric controls on the maximum depth reached by moist convection are investigated with radar‐tracked convective cells tagged with sounding‐derived atmospheric parameters from a field campaign in central Argentina. Regression analyses show that narrow (<12‐km diameter) and wide (>16‐km diameter) cell depths respond to disparate factors, where cell areas are defined using composite reflectivity signatures. Undiluted lifted parcel indices including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) are top predictors of wide cell maximum depth while mid‐tropospheric relative humidity is the top predictor of narrow cell maximum depth. Because narrow cells are more numerous than wide cells, the overall outcome of the full cell population does not strongly correlate with CAPE and LNB conditions. Tracked cells and atmospheric conditions in a simulation with 3‐km grid spacing covering the field campaign produce similar results to those observed. Narrow cells that are relatively deep have a cooler and moister mid‐troposphere with weaker free tropospheric subsidence, while relatively deep wide cells have much warmer and moister lower tropospheric conditions. These atmospheric differences are present 1 hr before cell initiation at both a fixed observing site and variable cell initiation locations. Simulated narrow cell maximum equivalent potential temperature decreases with height at a rate similar to the ambient vertical gradient, causing these cells to fall short of their LNB and supporting the view that entrainment‐driven dilution is a dominant control on their depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Photochemical Phosphorus-Hydrogen-Oxygen Network for Hydrogen-dominated Exoplanet Atmospheres

Due to the detection of phosphine (PH 3 ) in the solar system gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, PH 3 has long been suggested to be detectable in exosolar substellar atmospheres too. However, to date, direct detection of phosphine has proven to be elusive in exoplanet atmosphere surveys. We construct an updated phosphorus-hydrogen-oxygen (PHO) photochemical network suitable for the simulation of gas giant hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Using this network, we examine PHO photochemistry in hot Jupiter and warm Neptune exoplanet atmospheres at solar and enriched metallicities. Our results show for HD 189733b-like hot Jupiters that HOPO, PO, and P 2 are typically the dominant P carriers at pressures important for transit and emission spectra, rather than PH 3 . For GJ1214b-like warm Neptune atmospheres our results suggest that at solar metallicity PH 3 is dominant in the absence of photochemistry, but is generally not in high abundance for all other chemical environments. At 10 and 100 times solar, small oxygenated phosphorus molecules such as HOPO and PO dominate for both thermochemical and photochemical simulations. The network is able to reproduce well the observed PH 3 abundances on Jupiter and Saturn. Despite progress in improving the accuracy of the PHO network, large portions of the reaction rate data remain with approximate, uncertain, or missing values, which could change the conclusions of the current study significantly. Improving understanding of the kinetics of phosphorus-bearing chemical reactions will be a key undertaking for astronomers aiming to detect phosphine and other phosphorus species in both rocky and gaseous exoplanetary atmospheres in the near future.

atmospheric composition↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer’s Response to a Solar Eclipse

The atmospheric response to the solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 in North America is investigated with a specific focus on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). We leverage measurements collected during the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), including Doppler lidars, sonic anemometers, and thermodynamic profiler data to investigate the atmospheric response across sites that experienced partial eclipse conditions with nearly 90% obscuration. Using these measurements, we examine eclipse-induced changes in key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and turbulent fluxes. Most previous eclipse studies have been conducted over land, whereas this study provides new observations for both coastal and marine environments, offering additional insight into eclipse-driven variability in the MABL. The findings confirm a notable decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation during the eclipse, which results in rapid cooling of surface air. The temperature reduction ranges from $1.2^\circ \text {C}$ to $1.4^\circ \text {C}$ in coastal regions and from $0.3^\circ \text {C}$ to $0.5^\circ \text {C}$ over the ocean. This analysis suggests that the MABL’s higher thermal inertia compared to coastal regions moderates the temperature decrease during the eclipse. Wind speed exhibits a more complex behavior, as it is influenced by both the MABL and preexisting synoptic conditions. Although a reduction in wind speed is observable up to approximately 140 m above ground level (AGL) at more inland sites, at other locations closer to the coast, this reduction is constrained to the lowest 100 m AGL. Turbulence parameters retrieved from sonic anemometers, such as turbulence kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and friction velocity, decrease during the eclipse at coastal sites, accompanied by a brief transition of atmospheric stability from unstable to neutral or weakly stable conditions. For the open-ocean sites, the variability in turbulence statistics and atmospheric stability is minimal during the occurrence of the eclipse.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO 2 reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)

Abstract Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO 2 reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO 2 reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO 2 response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality ( α ) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO 2 relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency ( ϵ ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, α is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO 2 in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, α is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO 2 equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean ϵ approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with ϵ approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while ϵ stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.

Yamamoto, Kana (ORCID:0009000731519234)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Current MACCS Capabilities for Modeling Atmospheric Physical and Chemical Transformations

The physical and chemical transformation during atmospheric transport of radionuclides released into the environment has the possibility of impacting consequence modeling results. Accordingly, this report identifies physical and chemical transformations that may occur following release of chemically reactive radioactive species, how those transformations may affect modeling of consequences of release to the atmosphere and identifies current capabilities – in both MACCS and other state-of-practice atmospheric transport and dispersions models– to model those transformations. It was found that the inclusion of physical and chemical transformations is currently very limited in current state-of-practice codes for atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides. State-of-practice atmospheric dispersion codes appear to be typically limited to simulating either physical-chemical transformations or radioactive transformations, but not both. A state-of-practice atmospheric dispersion code capable of performing parallel physical, chemical, and radioactive transformation was not identified. A few atmospheric dispersion codes capable of modeling physical and chemical transport of specific species such as tritium or uranium hexafluoride were identified. Consequently, there is currently no information available that clearly suggests updates to the MACCS code are needed to bring it up to state-of-practice. However, investigations concluded that the MACCS computational framework can currently accommodate multiple physical/chemical forms in one simulation. Additionally, with some major assumptions, the computational framework in MACCS can accommodate parallel physical-chemical and radioactive transformations.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building partnerships for development of sustainable energy systems with atmospheric measurements

Atmospheric dynamics often play a critical role in the sustainability and reliability of diverse forms of energy production. This is especially true for the growing number of renewable energy deployments that harness aspects of the environment for power production. While the University of Memphis has a strong research background in energy systems, we have little experience working with the Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division (EESSD) and their associated User Facilities. Of particular interest to us is the Atmospheric Science Research and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility to address surface-boundary layer interactions and physical phenomena. One of the major challenges for understanding and developing energy systems and management platforms is accurate modeling/forecasting of atmospheric conditions across disparate spatial and temporal scales. These conditions are often required to understand the lowest levels of the atmospheric boundary layer, but are also important to understand higher atmospheric conditions where aerosols affect cloud development. The objective of this work was to develop partnerships with national laboratories for collaboration on environmental science and its intersection with sustainable energy systems, as well as to leverage the ARM user facility data repositories to enhance our research capabilities in energy systems and their inter-dependence on environmental systems for future engagement with EESSD. Specifically, we accomplished these objectives by (1) developing collaborations with Oakridge National Laboratory ARM Data Science and Integration Group which resulted in student internships, (2) employed ARM data to develope modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer optical turbulence, and (3) optimally-sized large-scale renewable energy systems and their associated energy storage systems with ARM repository data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Formation of late-generation atmospheric compounds inhibited by rapid deposition

Reactive organic carbon species are important fuel for atmospheric chemical reactions, including the formation of secondary organic aerosol. However, in parallel to atmospheric oxidation processes, deposition can remove compounds from the atmosphere and impact downstream environments. To understand the impact of deposition on atmospheric oxidation, we present a framework for predicting and visualizing the fate of a molecule on the basis of the physicochemical properties of compounds (Henry’s law constant, vapour pressure and reaction rate constants), which are used to estimate timescales for oxidation and deposition. Further, by implementing our deposition rates in chemical models, we show that deposition substantially suppresses atmospheric reactivity and aerosol formation by removing early-generation products and preventing the formation of large fractions (up to 90%) of downstream, late-generation compounds. Deposition is frequently missing in the laboratory experiments and detailed chemical modelling, which probably biases our understanding of atmospheric composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Relative Contributions of Surface Parcel and Atmospheric Environment to Convective Potential during Interstorm Periods

Convective instability is affected by both surface heat fluxes into near-surface air parcels and the atmospheric profile encountered as these air parcels are lifted aloft. In this study, we investigate the evolution of buoyancy experienced by surface-based parcels, taking interstorm soil moisture drydowns as fundamental time periods. We use profile observations of atmospheric temperature and humidity from ground-based passive remote sensing and in situ observations available at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma, United States, and examine drydown events during the warm seasons from 2017 to 2022. Results reveal new insights on the emergence and growth of convective available potential energy (CAPE) during drydowns. We observe that the peak convective potential appears in the afternoon and grows in the midtroposphere (68% of 66 drydown events), with the largest CAPE values toward the end of the drydown event. We also find that the near-surface parcel contributes more to the evolution of CAPE than the atmospheric environment (86% of drydown events). These findings highlight the importance of surface heat fluxes and moisture availability from surface-based parcels in modulating the evolution of atmospheric conditions favorable for convection, underscoring the interplay between surface processes and atmospheric dynamics in driving convective instability.

Atmosphere-land interaction↗

DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Atmosphere Theme centre around processes and feedbacks in atmospheric science such as clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric circulation, temperature variability and extremes, radiative forcings, and Earth system model evaluation. These topics are summarised in this paper as scientific “opportunities” which will be realised through CMIP7 experiments and Earth system model outputs. These opportunities were submitted by a thematic group of atmospheric science community representatives combined with an extended consultation process. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making, including supporting the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). As an author group, we also reflect on the process used to collate this data request and make recommendations to future CMIP governance on implementing a consultation on this scale in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Representations of Land‐Atmosphere Interactions Over the Continental U.S. Through Dynamic Root Modeling

Previous studies have identified the oversimplified root system representation as a key factor leading to inaccuracies in vegetation‐atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, a dynamic root water uptake scheme in the Noah‐MP land surface model has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate its impact on the surface hydroclimate variables and land‐atmosphere interactions. To evaluate the impact of the dynamic root, two coupled simulations were conducted, one with the dynamic root water uptake scheme (DynRt) and one with the static root water uptake scheme (StcRt), which is based on the default root representation in Noah‐MP, with slight modifications, primarily in vegetation‐related parameters. Both DynRt and StcRt simulations were conducted with a small ensemble of three members to account for variations in physical parameterizations, initial and boundary forcing and model setup. When compared with reference data sets, the DynRt simulations show improved results than the StcRt simulations, reducing biases in the simulated leaf area index, surface energy fluxes, soil moisture and precipitation. Two different mechanisms through which roots affect land‐atmosphere coupling have been identified. Over the transitional climate zone between the dry and wet climate, the dynamic root scheme affects surface climate and land‐atmosphere coupling mainly through changes in soil moisture through hydraulic redistribution by plant root system. Over the energy‐limited mesic zone, the dynamic root affects regional land‐atmosphere coupling mainly through changes in carbon allocation. This work highlights the importance of dynamic root representation in improving vegetation‐atmosphere simulations by enhancing predictions of water, energy, and carbon fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

First experimental determination of the ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)³⁹Ar reaction cross section and ³⁹Ar production in Earth’s atmosphere

The cosmogenic ³⁹Ar(t1∕2 = 268 years) isotope of argon is used for geophysical dating and tracing of underground and ocean water, as well as ice owing to its appropriate half-life and chemical inertness as a noble gas; ³⁹Ar serves also in nuclear weapon test monitoring. We measured for the first time the total cross section of the main ³⁹Ar cosmogenic production reaction in the atmosphere, namely ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)39 Ar, using 14.8 ± 0.3 MeV neutrons. The neutrons, produced by a deuterium-tritium generator, impinged on a stainless steel sphere filled with Ar gas highly enriched in the ⁴⁰Ar isotope and were monitored by a stack of fast-neutron activation foils. The reaction yield was measured by atom counting of long-lived ³⁹Ar with noble gas accelerator mass spectrometry and, independently, by decay counting relative to atmospheric argon (³⁹Ar/Ar= 8.12 × 10−16 ). A total ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)39 Ar cross section of 610 ± 100 mb was determined at 14.8 ± 0.3 MeV incident neutron energy. This result serves as a benchmark for recent theoretical calculations and evaluations, found to reproduce well the experimental total cross section. We use these energy-dependent theoretical cross sections together with experimental spectra of cosmogenic neutrons at different altitudes to calculate the global average rate of neutron-induced ³⁹Ar atmospheric production, resulting in 770 ± 240 39 Ar atoms/cm²/day. The secular equilibrium between the ³⁹Ar calculated production rate and radioactive decay rate leads to a partial isotopic abundance ³⁹Ar/Ar = (5.9 ± 1.8) × 10−16 , showing that ≈73% of atmospheric ³⁹Ar is produced by cosmogenic neutrons, the remaining part believed to be induced by muons and high-energy 𝛾 rays. The ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)³⁹Ar cross section at 14 MeV is also a key parameter for quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric 39 Ar produced during the thermonuclear tests of the 1960s. We estimate that anthropogenic ³⁹Ar accounts for roughly 20% of the present atmospheric inventory.

39 Ar atmospheric production↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing land-atmosphere interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability

2025 Advancing Understanding of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Processes on S2S Predictability Workshop What: 227 registered workshop participants gathered in person (43%) and online (57%) to discuss state-of-the-art scientific understanding and modeling of land-atmosphere interactions and related processes in the context of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. Topics covered sources of S2S predictability, land model initialization methods, model diagnosis and evaluation metrics, AI/ML analysis and applications, and coordination of future community multi-model S2S forecast focused experiments. To advance the science, this community workshop, organized by NSF NCAR, NOAA, NASA, and DOE, aimed to 1) identify process- and application-oriented metrics for assessing S2S prediction skill and 2) develop experimental protocols for coordinated experiments to isolate, quantify, and understand the role of land-atmosphere interactions in S2S predictability. When: June 16-18, 2025 Where: Boulder, CO, USA, and online.

Land-Atmosphere Interaction↗

DOE OSTI2026

The role of charm and unflavored mesons in prompt atmospheric lepton fluxes

The all-sky very-high-energy (10 4 − 10 6 GeV) atmospheric muon flux measured by IceCube shows a spectral hardening at the highest energies, indicating the presence of a prompt component. IceCube has also measured the atmospheric muon neutrino flux at high energy. However, since this flux is dominated by astrophysical neutrinos, only an upper bound can be placed on the prompt atmospheric ν μ + $\overline{ν}$ μ contribution. In this work, we provide a new evaluation of the prompt atmospheric muon flux including an intrinsic charm component in the cosmic ray-air interactions. The latter enhances the forward production of $\overline{D}$ 0 , D – and Λc, which subsequently decay into final states containing muons and muon neutrinos. We show how the increase in the prompt muon flux due to intrinsic charm is accompanied by a corresponding enhancement in the prompt muon neutrino flux. We implement different intrinsic charm production models in MCEq to calculate the resulting lepton fluxes. We discuss the challenges of achieving predictions that are simultaneously consistent with both IceCube’s high-energy atmospheric muon flux measurements and IceCube upper bounds on the prompt muon neutrino flux, and we quantify the resulting discrepancies. As possible solutions, we explore scaling of the unflavored meson contributions to the prompt atmospheric muon flux to assess how such adjustments can reconcile these differences. The tensions emphasized in our work call for a refinement of the hadronic interaction models, especially the production of unflavored mesons, and for new experimental data sensitive to unflavored meson and heavy flavor production with reliable estimates of the associated uncertainties. We suggest that the energy and zenith angle dependence of muon and neutrino flux ratios from future neutrino telescope measurements may help to disentangle different scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hypothesis on the dust-borne atmospheric transport of Coccidioides , causative fungal pathogen for coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever)

For many decades, the fungal pathogen (Coccidioides spp.) that causes coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) has been associated with dust exposure. However, the mechanism of atmospheric transport of arthroconidia has yet to be defined. As such, it is unclear whether the association between dust exposure and Coccidioides is coincidental or not: do soil-disturbing events simultaneously cause both free-floating Coccidioides conidia and dust particles (i.e., particulate matter) to become entrained in the atmosphere, or is Coccidioides attached to dust particles and they are jointly suspended? In this short article, we propose the dust-borne atmospheric transport hypothesis: Coccidioides conidia are transported in the atmosphere attached to dust particles, which protect the fungi from harsh environmental conditions like desiccation and UV exposure, allowing them to travel far while remaining viable in comparison to free-floating aerial transport. If true, the dust-borne atmospheric transport hypothesis provides a means for mechanistically modeling the transport and exposure risk of Coccidioides via atmospheric dispersion modeling and suggests health implications from simultaneous exposure to dust and a fungal pathogen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Invertible Neural Surrogates of Atmospheric Transmission

We present Data-Driven Invertible Neural Surrogates of Atmospheric transmission, or DINSAT. DINSAT is a novel framework for inferring an atmospheric transmission profile from a spectral scene. This framework leverages a lightweight, physics-based simulator that is automatically tuned -- by virtue of autodifferentiation and differentiable programming -- to construct a surrogate atmospheric profile to model the observed data. The framework has utility in (i) performing atmospheric correction, (ii) recasting spectral data between various modalities (e.g. radiance and reflectance at the surface and at the sensor), and (iii) inferring atmospheric transmission profiles, such as absorbing bands and their relative magnitudes. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by performing a canonical atmospheric correction task for the purposes of further analysis - in this case, target detection within a scene.

Koch, James V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can we achieve atmospheric chemical environments in the laboratory? An integrated model-measurement approach to chamber SOA studies

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), atmospheric particulate matter formed from low-volatility products of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation, affects both air quality and climate. Current 3D models, however, cannot reproduce the observed variability in atmospheric organic aerosol. Because many SOA model descriptions are derived from environmental chamber experiments, our ability to represent atmospheric conditions in chambers directly affects our ability to assess the air quality and climate impacts of SOA. Here, we develop an approach that leverages global modeling and detailed mechanisms to design chamber experiments that mimic the atmospheric chemistry of organic peroxy radicals (RO 2 ), a key intermediate in VOC oxidation. Drawing on decades of laboratory experiments, we develop a framework for quantitatively describing RO 2 chemistry and show that no previous experimental approaches to studying SOA formation have accessed the relevant atmospheric RO 2 fate distribution. We show proof-of-concept experiments that demonstrate how SOA experiments can access a range of atmospheric chemical environments and propose several directions for future studies.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of the Large Seasonal Cycle of Upwelling Zone Sea Surface Temperatures on the Atmosphere

Abstract The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the tropics is the largest in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Upwelling activity in these regions is maximum during late boreal summer and autumn, resulting in cool SSTs, and minimum in spring, leading to warm SSTs. The fundamental question of how this large seasonal cycle affects the atmosphere has received relatively little scientific attention. In this study, we use perturbed-SST experiments in an atmosphere model to identify the effects of the seasonal cycle of upwelling zone SSTs on the atmospheric state. Although annual-mean upwelling zone SSTs are cool, preventing their convective coupling with the free troposphere for much of the year, their boreal spring warmth can activate precipitating convection. We find that in this season, upwelling zone SSTs affect the atmosphere by 1) altering the intensity and position of the local intertropical convergence zone and 2) inducing a thermally forced Matsuno–Gill response, altering subtropical winds. On the seasonal time scale, the Atlantic upwelling zone is more effective than the Pacific in inducing this response. We also find that, consistent with prior work, the Pacific upwelling zone excites extratropical modes of internal atmospheric variability. Upwelling zone SSTs have remained poorly simulated through generations of climate models; our experiments allow us to diagnose the atmospheric biases that arise in response to upwelling zone SST biases. Our experiments show that upwelling zone SST biases are most impactful in boreal spring, particularly over the Atlantic.

Ramesh, Nandini↗