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DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

SOFE2023 Presentation: "Tritium Safety and Sensitivity Analysis of Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX) PbLi Loop Using MELCOR-TMAP"

The efficient extraction of tritium from the breeder blanket (BB) in a fusion reactor is vital for maintaining the tritium economy for a sustainable and self-sufficient fusion power plant. The vacuum permeator (VP) design is one of several promising technology platforms for extracting tritium from the BB with the advantages of being capable of operating continuously at high temperatures with the aim of achieving high tritium extraction efficiencies. The Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX), under construction at the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is designed to test the viability of VP technology by introducing atomic hydrogen (H, D, and T) from a source permeator (SP) into a forced convection lead lithium eutectic (PbLi) loop and determining the hydrogen extraction rates from the vanadium VP. Presented here is a computational analysis of the hydrogen inventory and permeation behavior in TEX using the hydrogen transport and accident analysis code MELCOR-TMAP developed at INL. The results of a sensitivity analysis based on MELCOR-TMAP simulations of hydrogen extraction efficiencies from the TEX test section using varying PbLi flow rates, hydrogen source rates from the SP, and material property uncertainties are also reported. Operation scenarios for TEX in consideration of the analyses based on results from MELCOR-TMAP are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

ASCR@40: Four Decades of Department of Energy Leadership in Advanced Scientific Computing Research

Throughout its long history, the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) has built the critical technologies to ensure U.S. leadership in energy science and national security. It has made its parent agency, the Department of Energy (DOE) and its Office of Science, the world’s recognized leader in computational science. ASCR’s stated mission is “to discover, develop, and deploy computational and networking capabilities to analyze, model, simulate, and predict complex phenomena important to the DOE.” To accomplish this goal, ASCR oversees a large complex of computing and networking facilities and is responsible for procuring, deploying and operating high-performance computing (HPC), networking and storage resources; conducting basic research in mathematics and computer science; developing and sustaining a large body of software; and collaborating with other Office of Science programs, academia and industry. ASCR’s computational science leadership has a long history, predating even DOE’s inception. Applied mathematics and advanced computing were both elements of the Manhattan Project’s Theoretical Division. In the 1950s, DOE’s predecessor, the Atomic Energy Commission, created a mathematics program to develop and apply digital computing by supporting researchers at universities and AEC laboratories. Several organizational and name changes later, this program would grow and become ASCR.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Procedure Parsing: A Method for Parsing Handwritten Documents into Computer-Based Procedures

The nuclear industry is heavily procedure driven, where almost everything has a step-by-step instruction that is expected to be followed in detail. Historically, these procedures were printed on paper copies. Recently, the industry transitioned towards electronic copies (i.e., PDFs on tablets). One major drive for this transition is the introduction of human error and loss of situation awareness when using paper copies. However, electronic copies of documents inherently have the same error traps as their paper cousins. Therefore, there is an increased interest in a way to utilize the information in the step-by-step guidance, but to present it in a dynamic manner that guides the user and adapts to any encountered conditions. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory propose a flexible, automated method based on document parsing and augmented by natural language processing (NLP) techniques, to address these shortcomings and capitalize on these recent advancements in machine learning. The proposed method provides a cost-effective solution for computer-assisted procedure parsing of hand-written control room procedures, originally authored in Word or PDF formats, into instructions that can be displayed as computer-based procedures (CBP) in a modern graphical user interface. The researchers devised, implemented and demonstrated the Operating Procedure Extender for Novel Systems (OPENS) method in 2020. The key to OPENS is to map the original procedure text into a context-free grammar, tying content to equipment, locations, and other steps, actions, etc. This formal grammar is then used to isolate and define keywords and actions verbs, such as “measure” or “evaluate” and tie them to specific equipment referenced within that step or located in other steps, substeps, actions, subactions and tables throughout the procedure. OPENS generates an abstract syntax tree from the document which it uses to store a copy of this information in the open-standard, machine-readable and human-readable file formats XML and JSON. The XML is useful to preserve the relational aspects of the procedure for referencing tables and branching information so the user can be directed to the next appropriate active step based on the values entered for that step and previous steps. The JSON is useful for storing and exchanging data objects used to track responses to previous steps and state changes in simulated environments. In future iterations, these formats can also be used for storing more detailed information about input during plant operation or simulation. The techniques the researcher developed could further be improved by integration of recent advancements in machine learning. NLP methods could standardize documents, correct for grammatical error, and provide automated semantic validation. The researcher expects that self-supervised techniques applied to collections of natural language instructions could strengthen the model with broader context. All these methods together give us a practical way to automatically extract protocols from documents and user interactions, empowering researchers, procedure writers and nuclear operators while moving the industry forward.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emulating the Android Boot Process

Critical vulnerabilities continue to be discovered in the boot process of Android smartphones used around the world. The entire device's security is compromised if boot security is compromised, so any weakness presents undue risk to users. Vulnerabilities persist, in part, because independent security analysts lack access and appropriate tools. In response to this gap, we implemented a procedure for emulating the early phase of the Android boot process. This work demonstrated feasibility and utility of emulation in this space. By using HALucinator, we derived execution context and data flow, as well as incorporated peripheral hardware behavior. While smartphones with shared processors have substantial code overlap regardless of vendor, generational changes can have a significant impact. By applying our approach to older and modern devices, we learned interesting characteristics about the system. Such capabilities introduce new levels of introspection and operation understanding not previously available to mobile researchers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Incubating advances in integrated photonics with emerging sensing and computational capabilities

As photonic technologies grow in multidimensional aspects, integrated photonics holds a unique position and continuously presents enormous possibilities for research communities. Applications include data centers, environmental monitoring, medical diagnosis, and highly compact communication components, with further possibilities continuously growing. Herein, we review state-of-the-art integrated photonic on-chip sensors that operate in the visible to mid-infrared wavelength region on various material platforms. Among the different materials, architectures, and technologies leading the way for on-chip sensors, we discuss the optical sensing principles that are commonly applied to biochemical and gas sensing. Our focus is on passive optical waveguides, including dispersion-engineered metamaterial-based structures, which are essential for enhancing the interaction between light and analytes in chip-scale sensors. We harness a diverse array of cutting-edge sensing technologies, heralding a revolutionary on-chip sensing paradigm. Our arsenal includes refractive-index-based sensing, plasmonics, and spectroscopy, which forge an unparalleled foundation for innovation and precision. Furthermore, we include a brief discussion of recent trends and computational concepts, incorporating Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning (AI/ML) and deep learning approaches over the past few years to improve the qualitative and quantitative analysis of sensor measurements.

Jain, Sourabh (ORCID:0000000279923275)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Monte Carlo Perturbation Analysis of Fuel Temperature Variations in the MCNP Model of the Annular Core Research Reactor

The Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR) Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) model is used by ACRR reactor operators and experiment designers at Sandia National Laboratories for a variety of computational calculations ranging from reactor kinetics parameter estimates and safety analyses to experimental planning. To understand the dominant source of uncertainty within the MCNP model, perturbations in temperature were applied to individual ACRR MCNP fuel rods. Fuel rod temperatures were randomly sampled from a uniform distribution from operational temperatures to quantify temperature-related uncertainty effects. Stochastic mixing was used to blend the cross sections of the desired temperatures using the MCNP continuous and Thermal Neutron Scattering Treatment [S(α,β)] libraries in ENDF/B-VII.1. Furthermore, this uncertainty analysis produced a 640 row × 640 column correlation and covariance matrix of the neutron energy spectra. Positive covariance was produced around the 1-MeV region and the 0.2-eV region. Correlation was found in the thermal and fast energy regions, but no correlation was observed in the slowing-down energy region because interactions in this region are not dominated by fuel.

ACRR↗

DOE OSTI2020

ASCR@40: Highlights and Impacts of ASCR’s Programs

A report compiled by the ASCAC Subcommittee on the 40-year history of ASCR for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research. The Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) sits within the Office of Science in the Department of Energy (DOE). Per their web pages, “the mission of the ASCR program is to discover, develop, and deploy computational and networking capabilities to analyze, model, simulate, and predict complex phenomena important to the DOE.” This succinct statement encompasses a wide range of responsibilities for computing and networking facilities; for procuring, deploying, and operating high performance computing, networking, and storage resources; for basic research in mathematics and computer science; for developing and sustaining a large body of software; and for partnering with organizations across the Office of Science and beyond. While its mission statement may seem very contemporary, the roots of ASCR are quite deep—long predating the creation of DOE. Applied mathematics and advanced computing were both elements of the Theoretical Division of the Manhattan Project. In the early 1950s, the Manhattan Project scientist and mathematician John von Neumann, then a commissioner for the AEC (Atomic Energy Commission), advocated for the creation of a Mathematics program to support the continued development and applications of digital computing. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) scientist John Pasta created such a program to fund researchers at universities and AEC laboratories. Under several organizational name changes, this program has persisted ever since, and would eventually grow to become ASCR.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reversing inverse Hall-Petch and direct computation of Hall-Petch coefficients

A 2D bicrystal atomistic model of dislocation transmission through a Σ11<101>{131} symmetric-tilt grain boundary reveals details of Hall-Petch breakdown in the single dislocation regime in Al, Ni, and Cu. Partly based on a previous study, this research determines the stress required for a single dislocation to be transmitted through the Σ11 boundary and finds that single dislocation transmission typically deviates from Hall-Petch behavior because the leading partial dislocation becomes trapped in the boundary and emits glissile grain boundary disconnections that cause boundary sliding deformation at stresses well below boundary transmission stresses. Thus, mechanisms of inverse Hall-Petch, namely grain boundary shear and sliding, are shown to operate in lieu of grain boundary transmission in the single dislocation regime. However, by controlling the applied stresses, inverse Hall-Petch can be reversed and typical Hall- Petch grain boundary transmission regained. This, in turn, allows the direct computation of Hall-Petch coefficients. Further, a second dislocation on the same slip plane preserves typical Hall-Petch behavior for Al and Ni and does not lead to boundary sliding events, thus implying a critical grain size for Hall-Petch breakdown based on the pileup model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parallel Time Integration for Constrained Optimization

The number of transistors in an average processor continues to increase, but individual clock speeds have plateaued. Those transistors are instead going into additional cores, increasing the number of different things that a processor can do at once and placing an emphasis on parallel computation. Many problems in scientific computing follow a time-evolution model, and it can be difficult to solve such problems in parallel across the temporal domain. The Multi-Grid Reduction In Time (MGRIT) algorithm, developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), solves differential equations with a method designed specifically to take advantage of extreme numbers of processors by parallelizing across time. The Tri-diagonal MGRIT (TriMGRIT) algorithm, also developed at LLNL, is a generalization of MGRIT which enables parallel-in-time solving of a greater number of problems. Constrained optimization problems, in particular, may be solved in parallel using TriMGRIT. These consist of choosing a control function such that an objective functional is minimized, constrained by a differential-equation. We consider two such problems: applying torque to a pendulum to bring it to a gentle stop and moving a crowd of people from one distribution into another. We also perform some miscellaneous theoretical and practical research, including investigating the use of a line-search subroutine to refine intermediate TriMGRIT results and preliminary work on strategies for choosing operators for TriMGRIT to use.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A review of machine learning in building load prediction

The surge of machine learning in recent years has been empowering engineer modeling in various fields. The decreasing hardware cost, increasing data accessibility, and advances of building automation system (BAS) allow the collection and storage of a significant amount of building operation data. The two facts provide great opportunities of applying machine learning to building energy systems modeling and analysis. There are a great number of research papers on this topic but there lacks a comprehensive and general review to summarize the current development, limitations, gaps and future trend. In this review paper series, machine learning techniques in building energy system modeling and analysis are reviewed under the organization and logic of the machine learning definition by Tom M. Mitchell: a computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to some class of tasks T and performance measure P if its performance at tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E. This paper is the first part of the review paper series, which focuses on building load prediction. First, the applications of building load prediction model (task T) are reviewed. Then, the modeling algorithms improving machine learning performance and accuracy (performance P) are reviewed. At the same time, the literature on the data perspective for modeling (experience E), including data engineering from sensors level to data level, pre-processing, feature extraction and selection, is reviewed. Finally, what is well-studied and what is lacking but with great potential are concluded; the gaps between present and future utilization of machine learning techniques are identified; the future trend and development are also predicted. The target readers of this paper are not only researchers from the building side who can get exposed to cutting edge machine learning tools, but also those from machine learning side who can understand the potential and challenge to apply machine learning in buildings.

Liang, Zhang↗

DOE OSTI2021

From occupants to occupants: A review of the occupant information understanding for building HVAC occupant-centric control

Occupants are the core of the built environment. Traditional Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems operate with predefined schedules and maximum occupancy assumptions with no consideration of specific occupant information. These generalized assumptions usually do not align with the actual demand and result in over-conditioning and occupant discomfort. In recent years, with the aid of Information & Communication Technology (ICT) and Computer Science (CS), it is possible to acquire real-time and accurate occupant information to satisfy the exact thermal requirement through specific HVAC control in one particular built environment. This mechanism is called HVAC “Occupant-centric Control (OCC).” HVAC OCC strategy starts with collecting the occupant’s information (e.g., presence/absence) and then applies it to meet the occupant’s requirement (e.g., thermal comfort). However, even though some research studies and field pilot demonstrations have been devoted to the field of OCC, there is a lack of systematic knowledge about occupant data, which is the principal component of OCC for HVAC researchers and practitioners. To fill this gap, this review paper discusses OCC with a particular emphasis on occupant information and investigates how this information can assist HVAC operation in providing an acceptable built environment in required spaces during the required time. Finally, we provide a fine-grained, comprehensive picture of occupant information, discuss its features, the modalities of information feed-in into the HVAC control, and the application of commonly utilized occupant information for OCC.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven Distributed Learning of Multi-agent Systems: A Koopman Operator Approach

Koopman operator theory provides a model-free technique for studying nonlinear dynamical systems purely from data. Since the Koopman operator is infinite-dimensional, researchers have developed several methods that provide a finite-dimensional approximation of the Koopman operator so that it can be applied for practical use cases. One common thing with most of the methods is that their solutions are obtained by solving a centralized minimization problem. In this work, we treat the dynamical system to be a multi-agent system and propose an algorithm to compute the finite-dimensional approximation of the Koopman operator in a distributed manner using the knowledge of the topology of the underlying multi-agent system. The proposed distributed approach is shown to be equivalent to the centralized learning problem and results in a sparse Koopman whose block structure mimics the Laplacian of the multi-agent system. Extensive simulation studies illustrate the proposed framework on the network of oscillators and the IEEE 68 bus system.

Nandanoori, Sai Pushpak↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Technology Adoption Risks in Early-Stage Materials Research

Development of new technologies often begins with fundamental materials science research. Decisions at this stage can shape factors related to the eventual adoption readiness of the technology, such as process scalability or materials availability. Here we present the early-Stage Technology Evaluation for Adoption Risks (STEAR) framework as a method for qualitatively assessing metrics spanning four categories of adoption risks: value proposition, market acceptance, resource maturity, and license to operate. We conduct a case study applying STEAR to different methanol production processes at a range of technology readiness levels and demonstrate how the assessment identifies key challenges related to adoption readiness. Finally, we discuss efforts to expand the applicability and utility of STEAR, including focus group feedback and complementary quantitative analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)

As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecasting of Generators Startups and Shutdowns in the MISO System Based on Random Forest

Solving security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems to plan an economical generation schedule for day-head electricity market has been an important research topic in recent years. Mixed integer programming method (MIP), the-state-of-art approach for solving SCUC problem, is known computationally hard when the number of binary status variables is large. In this paper, a machine learning-based algorithm - random forest (RF), was applied to forecast the startups (SU) and shutdowns (SD) hours of generators, based on historical hourly system condition observations in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) system. The main purpose is to reduce the number of binary status variables, by fixing the SU/SD hours to a narrow range of high confidence. This would significantly reduce the size of the decision space, and therefore speed up SCUC solutions with reduced uncertainty.

Lin, Xinming↗