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ORNL Input to GDSA Repository Systems Analysis FY21
This document satisfies the M3 milestone M3SF-21OR010304082 titled “ORNL Input to GDSA Repository Systems.” This document describes the current status of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) efforts related to analyses of dual-purpose canister (DPC) disposal in unsaturated alluvium with a focus on thermal hydrological constraints on criticality timing and power output. This analysis updates previous analyses of thermal hydrological constraints on timing and power output of a potential criticality event in Dual-Purpose Canisters (DPCs) in a hypothetical repository in unsaturated alluvium using a more realistic representation of heat transport inside dry DPCs. PFLOTRAN was used for the simulations of multiphase thermal hydrology near a single DPC. The scenario considers a DPC failure at 9000 years, allowing water to enter and eventually fill the DPC. Once the DPC is filled to a level that could support a criticality event, different values for criticality power output were added to the decay heat. The main objective is to bound the power output that could be produced by a criticality event without driving water out of the package. For the conditions analyzed here, following a package breach, the alluvial formation could supply enough water to allow enough accumulation in the DPC to support a criticality event. However, the power output that would be generated is limited to modest values by loss of water moderator due to evaporation and vapor diffusion. In the reference case scenario, the DPC would not start to fill with water until about 16,000 years post closure and would not fill to a level that allows a criticality event until approximately 25,000 years post closure. The long-term average power output that could be sustained without driving off the water and terminating the criticality event is limited to approximately 100 W. Sensitivity to assumed conditions and parameters in the reference case, especially the deep percolation rate, need to be addressed but could not be undertaken because of numerical failures of the PFLOTRAN code running in general mode in the dry conditions of an unsaturated alluvium repository
Dense Seismic Array Study of a Legacy Underground Nuclear Test at the Nevada National Security Site
The complex postdetonation geologic structures that form after an underground nuclear explosion are difficult to constrain because increased heterogeneity around the damage zone affects seismic waves that propagate through the explosion site. Generally, a vertical rubble-filled structure known as a chimney is formed after an underground nuclear explosion that is composed of debris that falls into the subsurface cavity generated by the explosion. Compared with chimneys that collapse fully, leaving a surface crater, partially collapsed chimneys can have remnant subsurface cavities left in place above collapsed rubble. The 1964 nuclear test HADDOCK, conducted at the Nevada test site (now the Nevada National Security Site), formed a partially collapsed chimney with no surface crater. Understanding the subsurface structure of these features has significant national security applications, such as aiding the study of suspected underground nuclear explosions under a treaty verification. In this study, we investigated the subsurface architecture of the HADDOCK legacy nuclear test using hybrid 2D–3D active source seismic reflection and refraction data. The seismic data were acquired using 275 survey shots from the Seismic Hammer (a 13,000 kg weight drop) and 65 survey shots from a smaller accelerated weight drop, both recorded by ~1000 three-component 5 Hz geophones. First-arrival, P-wave tomographic modeling shows a low-velocity anomaly at ~200 m depth, likely an air-filled cavity caused by partial collapse of the rock column into the temporary postdetonation cavity. A high-velocity anomaly between 20 and 60 m depth represents spall-related compaction of the shallow alluvium. Hints of low velocities are also present near the burial depth (~364 m). The reflection seismic data show a prominent subhorizontal reflector at ~300 m depth, a short-curved reflector at ~200 m, and a high-amplitude reflector at ~50 m depth. Comparisons of the reflection sections to synthetic data and borehole stratigraphy suggest that these features correspond to the alluvium–tuff contact, the partial collapse cavity, and the spalled layer, respectively.
Date Release Report for Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) Nevada National Security Site
The DTRA sponsored 2020-2022 Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) consists of two large ground surface chemical explosions, data collection, analysis and modeling carried out in 2020-2022. The LSECE chemical explosions were carried out at the site of prior NNSA sponsored buried chemical explosions that were part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II in Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG). This report described the data collected under LSECE that is being made publicly available. The prior buried explosion DAG data are described in a separate report (https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825534) and are also publicly available. The LSECE explosions, data analysis and numerical modeling work sponsored by DTRA were intended to address three objectives: 1) Generate seismo-acoustic data to test and improve numerical models of explosion energy coupling in dry alluvium geology; 2) To improve seismo-acoustic yield estimation techniques as a function of depth and medium properties; 3) To study and improve acoustic propagation modeling under two different atmospheric conditions. The LSECE data that were collected have expanded the prior DAG buried explosion dataset to include surface chemical explosions recorded on a common set of seismo-acoustic stations. They have allowed a more detailed study of above and below surface seismo-acoustic energy coupling with applications to explosion monitoring and assessment. The two approximately 1-ton TNT equivalent yield LSECE explosions were detonated at different times of the day to explore the effects of the different atmospheric conditions. The first chemical explosion “Artemis” was conducted before dawn when temperature inversions were present. The second chemical explosion “Apollo” was conducted on a sunny afternoon when the temperature gradient was more linear. The LSECE chemical explosion data were also collected across a variety of different sensor types to allow evaluation of their effectiveness in recovering useful information. The LSECE instrumentation included fiber optic or Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), a dense array or Large-N array of seismometers, borehole accelerometers, DAS and a velocity meter, airborne acoustic instruments and a variety of visual and remote sensing data.
Incorporating Heterogeneity into 3D Geologic Models for the Alluvial Basin Reference Case
The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. Hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins are scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in deep regional water tables. Deep regional water tables allow for significant vertical separation between proposed repository depths and groundwater and thus longer transport paths from a hypothetical repository to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. In alluvial basins, alluvium creates a thick geologic host medium that serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system and isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository by limiting flow and transport of radionuclides.
Exploring the Effects of Emplacement Conditions on Explosion P/S Ratios across Local to Regional Distances
High-frequency (~> 2 Hz) seismic P/S amplitude ratios are well-established as a discriminant to distinguish between natural earthquakes and underground explosions at regional distances (~200–1500 km). As research shifts toward identifying lower-yield events, work has begun to investigate the potential of this discriminant for use at local distances (<200 km), in which initial results raise questions about its effectiveness. Here, we utilize data from several chemical explosion experiment series at the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada in the United States to study explosion Pg/Lg ratios across the range of local to regional distances. Additionall, the experiments are conducted over differing emplacement conditions, with contrasting geologies and a variety of yields and depths of burial, including surface explosions. We first establish the similarities of Pg/Lg ratios from chemical explosions to those from historic nuclear tests and conclude that, as previous data have suggested, chemical explosion ratios are good proxies for nuclear tests. We then examine Pg/Lg ratios from the new experiment series as functions of distance, yield, depth of burial, and scaled depth of burial (SDOB). At far-local and regional distances, we observe consistently higher ratios from hard-rock explosions compared to ones in a weaker dry alluvium medium, consistent with prior regional distance results. No other trends with yield, depth of burial, or SDOB are strongly evident. Scatter in the observed ratios is very high, particularly at the shortest event-to-station distances, suggesting that small-scale path effects play a significant role. On average, the local distance explosion Pg/Lg ratios show remarkable consistency across all the variations in emplacement. Explosion source models will need to reproduce these results.
Investigating the detection of underground nuclear explosions by radon displacement
Not Available
Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach
Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.
Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method
A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.
Sinuosity‐Driven Hyporheic Exchange: Hydrodynamics and Biogeochemical Potentials
Abstract Hydrologic exchange processes are critical for ecosystem services along river corridors. Meandering contributes to this exchange by driving channel water, solutes, and energy through the surrounding alluvium, a process called sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange. This exchange is embedded within and modulated by the regional groundwater flow (RGF), which compresses the hyporheic zone and potentially diminishes its overall impact. Quantifying the role of sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange at the reach‐to‐watershed scale requires a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between drivers (meander planform) and modulators (RGF) and its implications for biogeochemical transformations. Here, we use a 2D, vertically integrated numerical model for flow, transport, and reaction to analyze sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange systematically. Using this model, we propose a dimensionless framework to explore the role of meander planform and RGF in hydrodynamics and how they constrain nitrogen cycling. Our results highlight the importance of meander topology for water flow and age. We demonstrate how the meander neck induces a shielding effect that protects the hyporheic zone against RGF, imposing a physical constraint on biogeochemical transformations. Furthermore, we explore the conditions when a meander acts as a net nitrogen source or sink. This transition in the net biogeochemical potential is described by a handful of dimensionless physical and biogeochemical parameters that can be measured or constrained from literature and remote sensing. This work provides a new physically based model that quantifies sinuosity‐driven hyporheic exchange and biogeochemical reactions, a critical step toward their representation in water quality models and the design and assessment of river restoration strategies.
Modeling the formation of Sedan Crater using the FLAG and HOSS codes
Numerical modeling of explosion crater formation requires accounting for complex physical processes. Numerical validation of explosion cratering is an important step in modeling and requires experimental data for comparison. Models using discrete elements and continuum models have both benefits and drawbacks to their approaches. In this work, we consider both an arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) hydrocode and a finite discrete element method (FDEM) approach to modeling the formation of the Sedan crater, the largest human-made crater in the United States. The Sedan crater formed from an underground nuclear detonation in the Nevada desert as part of Project Plowshare. Our models show that the continuum approach of the hydrocode matched well compared to early test time prior to the mound rupture and subsequent fireball venting, when most of the alluvium exhibited fluid behavior. Our FDEM approach matched the final crater dimensions well, after material had settled back into the crater, when material strength and solid mechanics play key roles. Our work shows how leveraging the benefits of multiple numerical approaches can lead to better understanding of complex physical problems, especially problems with limited experimental data. By using a continuum approach to early-time hydrodynamics and an FDEM approach to later-time solid mechanics, we can better understand the different physical regimes of explosion crater formation.
Modeling Geologic Waste Repository Systems Below Residual Saturation
The heat generated by high-level radioactive waste can pose numerical and physical challenges to subsurface flow and transport simulators if the liquid water content in a region near the waste package approaches residual saturation due to evaporation. Here, residual saturation is the fraction of the pore space occupied by liquid water when the hydraulic connectivity through a porous medium is lost, preventing the flow of liquid water. While conventional capillary pressure models represent residual saturation using asymptotically large values of capillary pressure, here, residual saturation is effectively modeled as a tortuosity effect alone. Treating the residual fluid as primarily dead-end pores and adsorbed films, relative permeability is independent of capillary pressure below residual saturation. To test this approach, PFLOTRAN is then used to simulate thermal-hydrological conditions resulting from direct disposal of a dual-purpose canister in unsaturated alluvium using both conventional asymptotic and revised, smooth models. Importantly, while the two models have comparable results over 100 000 years, the number of flow steps required is reduced by approximately 94%.
Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files to explore bedrock circulation depth and porosity in Copper Creek, Colorado
This data package contains integrated hydrological model input and output files for Copper Creek, Colorado (24 km2), a tributary of the East River located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The model code is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution and a daily timestep. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model contains 12 model layers and extends 400 m below land surface. The original Copper Creek model was modified to contain geologic layers representing saprolite, shallow bedrock, and deep bedrock. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. For the shallow case, median flow depths occur in the shallow saprolite at depths <8 m, while the deep case promotes a median groundwater flow depth of 100 m. With this modeling framework we compare streamflow response to a plausible worst-case drought lasting up to five years. Streamflow metrics of analysis include average streamflow, fraction of stream network that is dry, no-flow duration, average groundwater flow to streams and time to recovery following the drought. Results and implications are presented in a paper submitted to Geophysical Research Letters titled, "The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought" by Rosemary WH. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning and Kenneth H Williams. A Readme.txt file provides instructions on how to download all model files and execute each model scenario. In addition to the GSFLOW output/prms/copper_drought.csv file containing daily basin water stores and fluxes (refer to GSFLOW manual) and the output/prms/copper_drought_statvar.dat file with output defined in the gsflow3.control file (refer to GSFLOW Manual), output files also include spatially distributed daily values of total evapotranspiration, canopy evaporation, precipitation, snowfall, infiltration, snow water equivalent, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, sublimation, soil moisture, contributing interflow, water table elevations, changes in groundwater storage, groundwater evapotranspiration, interbasin groundwater flow (limited to the alluvium below the stream outlet), and surface-groundwater exchanges within the river system.
Using Dense Array Waveform Correlations to Build a Velocity Model with Stochastic Variability
In an ongoing effort to improve 3D seismic-wave propagation modeling for frequencies up to 10 Hz, we used cross correlations between vertical-component waveforms from an underground chemical explosion to estimate the statistical properties of small-scale velocity heterogeneities. The waveforms were recorded by a dense 2D seismic array deployed during the Source Physics Experiments for event number 5 (SPE-5) in a series of six underground chemical explosions, conducted at the Nevada National Security Site. The array consisted of 996 geophones with a 50–100 m grid spacing, deployed at the SPE site at the north end of the Yucca Flat basin. The SPE were conducted to investigate the generation and propagation of seismic and acoustic waves from underground explosions. Comparisons of decay rates of waveform cross correlations as function of interstation distance, computed for observed and synthetic seismograms from the SPE-5 chemical explosion, were used to constrain statistical properties of correlated stochastic velocity perturbations representing small-scale heterogeneities added to a geology-based velocity model of the Yucca Flat basin. Using comparisons between recorded and simulated waveform cross correlations, we were able to recover sets of statistical properties of small-scale velocity perturbations in the velocity model that produce the best-fit between the recorded and simulated ground motion. The stochastic velocity fluctuations in the velocity model that produced the smallest misfits have a horizontal correlation distance of between 400 and 800 m, a vertical correlation distance between 100 and 200 m, and a standard deviation of 10% from the nominal model velocity in the alluvium basin layers. They also have a horizontal correlation distance of 1000 m, a vertical correlation distance of 250 m, and a standard deviation of 6% in the underlying and consolidated sedimentary layers, up to a depth of 4 km. Comparisons between observed and simulated wavefields were used to assess the proposed small-scale heterogeneity enhancements to the Yucca Flat basin model. We found that adding a depth-resolved stochastic variability to the geology-based velocity model improves the overall performance of ground-motion simulations of an SPE-5 explosion in the modeled frequency range up to 10 Hz. The results may be applicable to other similar basins.
Investigation of Site Amplifications Using Ambient-Noise-Derived Shallow Velocity Structures Under a Dense Array in Oklahoma
The shear-wave velocity (V S ) structure plays an important role in characterizing site amplification. The Large-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO; 1820 stations) revealed large vertical ground-motion variability in a 25 km × 32 km area in northern Oklahoma. The LASSO array has a relatively simple and flat topography, typical in a sedimentary basin environment in the central United States. In this study, we use the dense array to investigate the velocity structure under the LASSO array and how vertical ground motions relate to the shallow-to-deep structures. We extract the fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave by cross-correlating one month of ambient noise (0.7–5 Hz). We use double-beamforming to measure the group and phase velocities and anisotropy. By jointly inverting the group and phase velocities, we obtain the V S structure. Here, we observe correlations between V S at depths of 0.1–1.5 km and vertical ground motions using sites on the stiffer Permian formations. The shallow Quaternary alluvium and terrace deposits can amplify vertical ground motions by a factor of 2–4.5 between 2 and 25 Hz and attenuate signals above 25 Hz. We use 1D V S profiles to simulate the SV-wave transfer functions. An average V S of 250 m/s in the upper 20–40 m may cause the observed amplification between 2 and 40 Hz. V S estimated by topographic slopes cannot predict the relative amplification. Our results highlight the large variability of site-dependent ground motion in a small local region and the importance of characterizing shallow structures to estimate seismic hazards. Small thickness variations of the shallow formation can significantly change the resonance amplitude and frequency, which likely reduces the coherency of the Rayleigh waves extracted from ambient noise.
Imaging the Shallow Structure of the Yucca Flat at the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Site with Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio Inversion and a Large- N Seismic Array
The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a series of chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) with the goal of understanding seismic-wave generation and propagation of underground explosions. To understand explosion source physics, accurate geophysical models of the SPE site are needed. Here, we utilize a large-N seismic array deployed at the SPE phase II site to generate a shallow subsurface model of shear-wave velocity. The deployment consists of 500 geophones and covers an area of, approximately, 2.5 × 2 km. The array is located in the Yucca Flat in the northeast corner of the NNSS, Nye County, Nevada. Using ambient-noise recordings throughout the large-N seismic array, we calculate horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) across the array. We obtain 2D seismic images of shear-wave velocities across the SPE phase II site for the shallow structure of the basin. In this work the results clearly image two significant seismic impedance interfaces at ~150–500 and ~350–600 m depth. The shallower interface relates to the contrast between Quaternary alluvium and Tertiary volcanic rocks. The deeper interface relates to the contrast between Tertiary volcanic rocks and the Paleozoic bedrock. The 2D subsurface models support and extend previous understanding of the structure of the SPE phase II site. This study shows that the HVSR method in conjunction with a large-N seismic array is a quick and effective method for investigating shallow structures.
Simulations of the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE)
The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) project will include two surface energetic events (chemical explosions) conducted as close as possible to ground zero (GZ) of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II Dry Alluvium (DAG) site in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Seismic and acoustic data from these events will complement DAG buried source data and improve interpretation of speed-of-sound signals from explosions for national security programs. A satellite image of the region near GZ along with some of the recording stations that we will use for the far- eld simulation is shown in Figure 1. The working design of the HE package is shown in the Figure 2 and is roughly a cube of C-4 bricks.