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Life-Cycle Cost/Benefit Assessment of Expedite Departure Path (EDP)

This report presents a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment (LCCBA) of Expedite Departure Path (EDP), an air traffic control Decision Support Tool (DST) currently under development at NASA. This assessment is an update of a previous study performed by bd Systems, Inc. (bd) during FY01, with the following revisions: The life-cycle cost assessment methodology developed by bd for the previous study was refined and calibrated using Free Flight Phase 1 (FFP1) cost information for Traffic Management Advisor (TMA, or TMA-SC in the FAA's terminology). Adjustments were also made to the site selection and deployment scheduling methodology to include airspace complexity as a factor. This technique was also applied to the benefit extrapolation methodology to better estimate potential benefits for other years, and at other sites. This study employed a new benefit estimating methodology because bd s previous single year potential benefit assessment of EDP used unrealistic assumptions that resulted in optimistic estimates. This methodology uses an air traffic simulation approach to reasonably predict the impacts from the implementation of EDP. The results of the costs and benefits analyses were then integrated into a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay

Study of Pairwise Deconfliction Metrics to Analyze Air Traffic Complexity in Upper Class E Airspace

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) is envisioned to cooperatively facilitate operations of a diverse set of aerial vehicles, such as high-altitude long-endurance fixed-wing unmanned aircraft (low-speed and high-speed), high-altitude platforms, airships, stratospheric balloons, supersonic unmanned and commercial aircraft, etc., with a wide variety of mission types, performance characteristics, communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuverability, and on-board avionics in the National Airspace System (NAS) ’above’ 60,000 feet above mean sea level, without an active and direct control from human air traffic controllers. A diverse mixture of aerial vehicle types creates significant challenges in understanding air traffic complexity, which may not correlate strongly with air traffic density. One key step for determining air traffic complexity in upper class E airspace is to first understand pairwise deconfliction metrics such as reachability, reserve area, and reserve flight time for each pair of unique aerial vehicle types under potential conflict. Therefore, pairwise deconfliction metrics are first defined, and analytical equations are derived for conflict resolution using the heading change maneuver. Next, case studies are performed to analyze deconfliction metrics to avoid secondary conflicts in upper class E airspace. The study shows that pairwise deconfliction metrics are functions of maneuverability, performance characteristics, uncertainty in position and velocity, heading angle change, and conflict angle of aerial vehicles. The next step for this research is to build a mathematical model for air traffic complexity using pairwise deconfliction metrics and validate it in an upper Class E simulation environment.

Airspace Complexity

Study of Pairwise Deconfliction Metrics to Analyze Air Traffic Complexity in Upper Class E Airspace

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) is envisioned to cooperatively facilitate operations of a diverse set of aerial vehicles, such as high-altitude long-endurance fixed-wing unmanned aircraft (low-speed and high-speed), high-altitude platforms, airships, stratospheric balloons, supersonic unmanned and commercial aircraft, etc., with a wide variety of mission types, performance characteristics, communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuverability, and on-board avionics in the National Airspace System (NAS) ’above’ 60,000 feet above mean sea level, without an active and direct control from human air traffic controllers. A diverse mixture of aerial vehicle types creates significant challenges in understanding air traffic complexity, which may not correlate strongly with air traffic density. One key step for determining air traffic complexity in upper class E airspace is to first understand pairwise deconfliction metrics such as reachability, reserve area, and reserve flight time for each pair of unique aerial vehicle types under potential conflict. Therefore, pairwise deconfliction metrics are first defined, and analytical equations are derived for conflict resolution using the heading change maneuver. Next, case studies are performed to analyze deconfliction metrics to avoid secondary conflicts in upper class E airspace. The study shows that pairwise deconfliction metrics are functions of maneuverability, performance characteristics, uncertainty in position and velocity, heading angle change, and conflict angle of aerial vehicles. The next step for this research is to build a mathematical model for air traffic complexity using pairwise deconfliction metrics and validate it in an upper Class E simulation environment.

Airspace Complexity

Transportation Network Topologies

The existing U.S. hub-and-spoke air transportation system is reaching saturation. Major aspects of the current system, such as capacity, safety, mobility, customer satisfaction, security, communications, and ecological effects, require improvements. The changing dynamics - increased presence of general aviation, unmanned autonomous vehicles, military aircraft in civil airspace as part of homeland defense - contributes to growing complexity of airspace. The system has proven remarkably resistant to change. NASA Langley Research Center and the National Institute of Aerospace conducted a workshop on Transportation Network Topologies on 9-10 December 2003 in Williamsburg, Virginia. The workshop aimed to examine the feasibility of traditional methods for complex system analysis and design as well as potential novel alternatives in application to transportation systems, identify state-of-the-art models and methods, conduct gap analysis, and thus to lay a foundation for establishing a focused research program in complex systems applied to air transportation.

Alexandrov, Natalia

Tactical Separation and Safety Alerting System for Terminal Airspace

Provision of tactical alerts to aid air traffic controllers in providing separation assurance in terminal airspace is hindered by the complexity of the airspace, its operations, and flight procedures. A prototype automation system is studied that provides controllers with both separation and safety alerts based on or derived from the separation standard for terminal airspace. The system models flight trajectories heuristically, with use of merged intent information from readily available sources: area navigation departure procedures, flight-plan routes, and arrival nominal interior routes used in terminal automation systems. Flight vertical intent is modeled according to standard procedural restrictions except when superseded by controller-issued altitude clearances. Importantly, flight trajectories are modeled for all aircraft, including those conducting visual approaches. New safety-alert thresholds for aircraft conducting visual approaches are studied. Performance of the system is evaluated through fast-time playback of recorded air traffic data from high-fidelity Human-In-The-Loop simulations and real-world operations in two Terminal Radar Approach Control facilities. The prototype system is found to produce a false-alert rate of 8% for separation alerts. The number and validity of safety alerts are studied by comparing with the current Conflict Alert system, showing that the false alerts of Conflict Alert are at 85% and they are avoided in the prototype system.

Air Traffic Management

A Conceptual Design of a Departure Planner Decision Aid

Terminal area Air Traffic Management handles both arriving and departing traffic. To date, research work on terminal area operations has focused primarily on the arrival flow and typically departures are taken into account only in an approximate manner. However, arrivals and departures are highly coupled processes especially in the terminal airspace, with complex interactions and sharing of the same airport resources between arrivals and departures taking place in practically every important terminal area. Therefore, the addition of automation aids for departures, possibly in co-operation with existing arrival flow automation systems, could have a profound contribution in enhancing the overall efficiency of airport operations. This paper presents the conceptual system architecture for such an automation aid, the Departure Planner (DP). This architecture can be used as a core in the development of decision-aiding systems to assist air traffic controllers in improving the performance of departure operations and optimize runway time allocation among different operations at major congested airports. The design of such systems is expected to increase the overall efficiency of terminal area operations and yield benefits for all stakeholders involved in Air Traffic Management (ATM) operations, users as well as service providers.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis

An Aircraft Separation Algorithm with Feedback and Perturbation

A separation algorithm is a set of rules that tell aircraft how to maneuver in order to maintain a minimum distance between them. This paper investigates demonstrating that separation algorithms satisfy the FAA requirement for the occurrence of incidents by means of simulation. Any demonstration that a separation algorithm, or any other aspect of flight, satisfies the FAA requirement is a challenge because of the stringent nature of the requirement and the complexity of airspace operations. The paper begins with a probability and statistical analysis of both the FAA requirement and demonstrating meeting it by a Monte Carlo approach. It considers the geometry of maintaining separation when one plane must change its flight path. It then develops a simple feedback control law that guides the planes on their paths. The presence of feedback control permits the introduction of perturbations, and the stochastic nature of the chosen perturbation is examined. The simulation program is described. This paper is an early effort in the realistic demonstration of a stringent requirement. Much remains to be done.

White, Allan L.

A Validation Study of Merging and Spacing Techniques in a NAS-Wide Simulation

In November 2010, Intelligent Automation, Inc. (IAI) delivered an M&S software tool to that allows system level studies of the complex terminal airspace with the ACES simulation. The software was evaluated against current day arrivals in the Atlanta TRACON using Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (KATL) arrival schedules. Results of this validation effort are presented describing data sets, traffic flow assumptions and techniques, and arrival rate comparisons between reported landings at Atlanta versus simulated arrivals using the same traffic sets in ACES equipped with M&S. Initial results showed the simulated system capacity to be significantly below arrival capacity seen at KATL. Data was gathered for Atlanta using commercial airport and flight tracking websites (like FlightAware.com), and analyzed to insure compatible techniques were used for result reporting and comparison. TFM operators for Atlanta were consulted for tuning final simulation parameters and for guidance in flow management techniques during high volume operations. Using these modified parameters and incorporating TFM guidance for efficiencies in flowing aircraft, arrival capacity for KATL was matched for the simulation. Following this validation effort, a sensitivity study was conducted to measure the impact of variations in system parameters on the Atlanta airport arrival capacity.

Glaab, Patricia C.

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

Game Theory

Generic Airspace Survey

This paper reports on an extension of generic airspace research to explore the amount of memorization and specialized skills required to manage sectors with specific characteristics or factors. Fifty-five retired controllers were given an electronic survey where they rated the amount of memorization or specialized skills needed for sixteen generic airspace factors. The results suggested similarities in the pattern of ratings between different areas of the US (East, Central, and West). The average of the ratings for each area also showed some differences between regions, with ratings being generally higher in the East area. All sixteen factors were rated as moderately to highly important and may be useful for future research on generic airspace, air traffic controller workload, etc.

generic airspace

Lessons Learned in the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Air Traffic Management

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in Air Traffic Management (ATM). The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large databases. This paper reviews the current-state-of-the art in applying MLT to aviation operations, its promises and challenges. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The promises and challenges in applying MLT to ATM is traced through three examples based on the authors’ experience, each separated by a decade, to show the influence of data and feature selection in the successful application of MLT to ATM. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Machine Learning Techniques

Sim to Flight: Evaluating Flight Path Management Automation in High Density Urban Environments

Combined simulation and flight testing enable the study of single- and multi-aircraft performance of onboard automation systems for dynamic flight path management (FPM). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating system performance and functional capabilities of such automation for immersion into complex, high density, future operations such as Urban Air Mobility (UAM). This paper provides an overview of a series of interdependent sim-to-flight research activities involving large-scale batch simulations, human-in-the-loop verification, and flight-test validation of a research prototype FPM automation system. Together, they significantly contributed to a functional assessment of FPM automation functionality in a live-virtual-constructive (LVC) operating environment characterized by two live aircraft and hundreds of virtual aircraft interacting in a modeled complex urban airspace. Initial simulation and flight test results, future work, and conclusions are presented.

Advanced Air Mobility

Dynamic Density: An Air Traffic Management Metric

The definition of a metric of air traffic controller workload based on air traffic characteristics is essential to the development of both air traffic management automation and air traffic procedures. Dynamic density is a proposed concept for a metric that includes both traffic density (a count of aircraft in a volume of airspace) and traffic complexity (a measure of the complexity of the air traffic in a volume of airspace). It was hypothesized that a metric that includes terms that capture air traffic complexity will be a better measure of air traffic controller workload than current measures based only on traffic density. A weighted linear dynamic density function was developed and validated operationally. The proposed dynamic density function includes a traffic density term and eight traffic complexity terms. A unit-weighted dynamic density function was able to account for an average of 22% of the variance in observed controller activity not accounted for by traffic density alone. A comparative analysis of unit weights, subjective weights, and regression weights for the terms in the dynamic density equation was conducted. The best predictor of controller activity was the dynamic density equation with regression-weighted complexity terms.

Laudeman, I. V.

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE

Tactical Conflict Detection in Terminal Airspace

Air traffic systems have long relied on automated short-term conflict prediction algorithms to warn controllers of impending conflicts (losses of separation). The complexity of terminal airspace has proven difficult for such systems as it often leads to excessive false alerts. Thus, the legacy system, called Conflict Alert, which provides short-term alerts in both en-route and terminal airspace currently, is often inhibited or degraded in areas where frequent false alerts occur, even though the alerts are provided only when an aircraft is in dangerous proximity of other aircraft. This research investigates how a minimal level of flight intent information may be used to improve short-term conflict detection in terminal airspace such that it can be used by the controller to maintain legal aircraft separation. The flight intent information includes a site-specific nominal arrival route and inferred altitude clearances in addition to the flight plan that includes the RNAV (Area Navigation) departure route. A new tactical conflict detection algorithm is proposed, which uses a single analytic trajectory, determined by the flight intent and the current state information of the aircraft, and includes a complex set of current, dynamic separation standards for terminal airspace to define losses of separation. The new algorithm is compared with an algorithm that imitates a known en-route algorithm and another that imitates Conflict Alert by analysis of false-alert rate and alert lead time with recent real-world data of arrival and departure operations and a large set of operational error cases from Dallas/Fort Worth TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control). The new algorithm yielded a false-alert rate of two per hour and an average alert lead time of 38 seconds.

Tang, Huabin

Overview of Model-Based Systems Engineering Efforts to Evolve the Airspace Research Roadmap

NASA’s Air Traffic Management-Exploration (ATM-X) UAM Airspace Subproject is conducting research that evolves UAM airspace towards a highly automated and operationally flexible system of the future. The complexity of UAM airspace evolution requires a plan to effectively organize, integrate, and communicate NASA’s research and development. The planning tool, called the UAM airspace research roadmap, or just roadmap, is key to the execution of NASA’s UAM airspace research over the next ten years. Implemented through Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methodology, the roadmap will help to prioritize and coordinate research efforts, and to integrate results that build towards NASA’s research goals of evolving UAM airspace for integration of UAM operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). This paper presents an overview of on-going MBSE efforts to meet these overarching goals. Note: Included mp4 video of presentation included in record, runtime 9 mins 57 secs.

Model-Based Systems Engineering