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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing the co-evolution of green technology diffusion and consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes: An agent-based model

Massive diffusion of green technologies is significant for building a cleaner world. However, the process of technology diffusion is usually slow and complex. An in-depth understanding of the mechanism regarding green technology diffusion is an essential precondition for effectively stimulating this process. Green technology diffusion heavily involves both social and technological changes. Although existing studies have provided rich knowledge about identifying critical drivers and barriers affecting green technology diffusion, research that considers consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes and green technology diffusion as an evolving system is still sparse. Aiming at exploring the co-evolution of consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes and green technology diffusion, this paper builds an agent-based model that integrates the relative agreement model with technology diffusion theories to conduct a sequence of controlled numerical experiments, which progressively unveil how attitudinal and technological factors impact green technology diffusion. The main findings include that (1) improving consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes is prominently beneficial to green technology diffusion and maturation; (2) technology maturity has very limited impact on consumers’ first-time purchases but significantly affects consumers’ satisfaction, which would further impact consumers’ repeat purchases; (3) consumers that do not support green technologies frequently emerge during the evolution of attitudes (despite the high technology maturity), which corresponds to the emergence of the anti-environmental groups observed in the real world; (4) active interactions between non-adopters enable their attitudes to converge, which results in the polarization of consumers’ attitudes.

ABM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

SAND2024-11403O The Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent-based Model via Random Forest is a code that was developed in concurrence with an article by the same name that was written for a journal. The code reproduces simulation results and plots from the article. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ten questions concerning agent-based modeling of occupant behavior for energy and environmental performance of buildings

We report the complexity of occupant behavior is one of the major contributors to uncertainty in building performance simulation. Agent-based modeling (ABM), a computational simulation technique, has gained attention in the occupant modeling field due to its capability and flexibility to capture the heterogeneity and dynamics of human behavior and the emergent effects. While multiple efforts in the past decade have demonstrated the usefulness of the ABM approach for simulating occupants and their impacts on building performance, several crucial matters in the ABM research still remain unexplored. This paper presents ten questions that highlight the most important issues regarding ABM research and applications for occupant behavior in the context of building performance simulation. The questions and answers aim to provide insights into current and future ABM research, and more importantly to inspire new significant questions from young researchers in the field. This research is part of the IEA EBC Annex 79 project, occupant-centric building design and operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reverse Logistics Ev Battery Recycling Agent Base Model

This represents the initial regional tier of the electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling agent base model. Through this model, we can ascertain the number of EV purchases at both the state and regional levels. We employ census data to develop a diverse household profile to inform decisions regarding the acquisition of new or used EVs. The number of EV purchases at the state level will affect the future demand for recycling, reuse, and repurposing of end-of-life EV batteries. Additionally, tax credits, EV rebate programs, and the financial capacity of households will influence the number of EV purchases, thereby further impacting the demand for EV battery recycling.

Alam, Lamia [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta Biome: a multiscale model integrating agent-based and metabolic networks to reveal spatial regulation in gut mucosal microbial communities

ABSTRACT Mucosal microbial communities (MMCs) are complex ecosystems near the mucosal layers of the gut essential for maintaining health and modulating disease states. Despite advances in high-throughput omics technologies, current methodologies struggle to capture the dynamic metabolic interactions and spatiotemporal variations within MMCs. In this work, we presentMetaBiome, a multiscale model integrating agent-based modeling (ABM), finite volume methods, and constraint-based models to explore the metabolic interactions within these communities. Integrating ABM allows for the detailed representation of individual microbial agents each governed by rules that dictate cell growth, division, and interactions with their surroundings. Through a layered approach—encompassing microenvironmental conditions, agent information, and metabolic pathways—we simulated different communities to showcase the potential of the model. Using ourin-silicoplatform, we explored the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of MMCs in the proximal small intestine and the cecum, simulating the physiological conditions of the two gut regions. Our findings revealed how specific microbes adapt their metabolic processes based on substrate availability and local environmental conditions, shedding light on spatial metabolite regulation and informing targeted therapies for localized gut diseases.MetaBiome provides a detailed representation of microbial agents and their interactions, surpassing the limitations of traditional grid-based systems. This work marks a significant advancement in microbial ecology, as it offers new insights into predicting and analyzing microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Our study presents a novel multiscale model that combines agent-based modeling, finite volume methods, and genome-scale metabolic models to simulate the complex dynamics of mucosal microbial communities in the gut. This integrated approach allows us to capture spatial and temporal variations in microbial interactions and metabolism that are difficult to study experimentally. Key findings from our model include the following: (i) prediction of metabolic cross-feeding and spatial organization in multi-species communities, (ii) insights into how oxygen gradients and nutrient availability shape community composition in different gut regions, and (iii) identification of spatiallyregulated metabolic pathways and enzymes inE. coli. We believe this work represents a significant advance in computational modeling of microbial communities and provides new insights into the spatial regulation of gut microbiome metabolism. The multiscale modeling approach we have developed could be broadly applicable for studying other complex microbial ecosystems.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the circular economy: Lessons learned and path forward

Circular economy aims at decoupling human activities from resource use and creating wealth. However, many have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in several methodological approaches being developed to answer that question. This article analyzes and discusses the insights gained from applying agent-based modeling and simulation to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability. This article analyzes the benefits and limitations of this technology and discusses future methodology developments within the circular economy context. Moreover, six limits of the circular economy concept are used to interpret insights from the literature: thermodynamic limits, system boundary limits, limits posed by the physical scale of the economy, limits posed by path dependencies and lock-in, limits of governance and management, and limits of social and cultural definitions. Promising research avenues are to use this methodology with machine learning, industrial ecology methods, and detailed geographic information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating policy interventions in the interfirm diffusion of low-carbon technologies: An agent-based evolutionary game model

Policy interventions are frequently used by authorities around the world to mitigate carbon emissions. However, economic systems are essentially complex adaptive systems, which often exhibit unexpected responses to exogenous interventions and leave intervenors in a dilemma, even if the interventions are elaborately designed. To explore the behaviors of the diffusion system regarding low-carbon technologies, this study builds an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate enterprises' reactions to multiple policy interventions aimed at spurring low-carbon technology diffusion. The simulated enterprises are in a complex network where they play evolutionary games with their neighbors, which enables the model to possess two critical features of economic systems: adaptiveness and equilibrium. The model reveals a dilemma of policy interventions: intuitively, carbon taxes, asymmetric penalties (only imposed on un-low-carbon enterprises) and subsidies can improve the diffusion, which is consistent with previous research; counter-intuitively, all these policies turn out to be inefficient or even harmful to low-carbon enterprises because of the diffusion system's high adaptiveness. Specifically, when carbon taxes and penalties increase, both the low-carbon and un-low-carbon enterprises end up with the equilibrium of equivalent but lower profits. In contrast, all the enterprises earn equivalent but more profits even though subsidies are only given to the low-carbon enterprises, which implies that the un-low-carbon enterprises (indirectly) grab a portion of the subsidies and accordingly weaken the incentive effect of subsidies. These system behaviors are summarized as "equalizing effect" because the system tends to equalize the impact of both positive and negative interventions among all enterprises even though the policy interventions are asymmetrically imposed on one type of the enterprises. The findings also indicate that policies implemented to enlarge green market sizes can help policymakers bypass the dilemma.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Social Dynamics of Hard-Disk Drives Circularity with an Agent-Based Approach

By 2025, it is estimated that installed data storage in the U.S. will be 2.2 Zettabytes, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. The circular economy (CE) tackles waste issues by maximizing value retention in the economy, for instance, through reuse and recycling. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is hindered by the lack of trust organizations have toward other means of data removal than physically destroying HDDs. Here, an agent-based approach explores how organizations' decisions to adopt other data removal means affect HDDs' circularity. The model applies the theory of planned behavior to model the decisions of HDDs end-users. Results demonstrate that the attitude (which is affected by trust) of end-users toward data-wiping technologies acts as a barrier to reuse. Moreover, social pressure can play a significant role as organizations that adopt CE behaviors can set an example for others.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Social Dynamics of Hard-Disk Drives Circularity with an Agent-Based Approach: Preprint

By 2025, it is estimated that installed data storage in the US will be 2.2 Zettabytes, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. The circular economy tackles waste issues by maximizing value retention in the economy, for instance, through reuse and recycling. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is hindered by the lack of trust organizations have toward other means of data removal than physically destroying HDDs. Here, an agent-based approach explores how organizations’ decisions to adopt other data removal means affect HDDs circularity. The model applies the theory of planned behaviour to model the decisions of HDDs end-users. Results demonstrate that the attitude (which is affected by trust) of end-users toward data-wiping technologies acts as a barrier to reuse. Moreover, social pressure can play a significant role as organizations that adopt CE behaviours can set an example for others.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linking transportation agent-based model ($\mathrm{ABM}$) outputs with micro-urban social types ($\mathrm{MUSTs}$) via typology transfer for improved community relevance

The human relationship with transportation is shaped by social, economic, demographic, and urban form variables, or socio-spatial factors. The spatial dynamics of these are key to generating and interpreting outputs of transportation models that are most relevant for a community and the diverse mobility needs of its members. Here we present a typology transfer framework, grounded in socio-spatial dynamics shaping people's mobility, to take transportation-themed regional mobility model outcomes, in this case from two agent-based models (ABMs), and extrapolate them to other cities, with less time and resource intensity than new ABM development. The typology transfer process first identifies micro-urban social types (MUSTs) using socio-spatial factors, then defines city types based on spatial patterns of MUSTs to assess across which cities transfer results are likely to best hold. Lastly, a typology transfer multiplier matrix extrapolates a given variable, in our case the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric, to another city. The full process demonstration uses ABM results from Chicago (POLARIS model) and San Francisco (BEAM model), applying them to New York City. We discuss how MEP or other outputs can be appropriately estimated and used for integrated, human-centered mobility analysis. Key findings include that this MUST framework of user-defined dependent and independent variables allows tailoring ABM results and interpretations to specific community needs and data availability. Findings clarify that positive outcomes can be targeted towards user groups, based on sociospatial characteristics, using a typology approach, such as inclusive access to mobility choices, transportation affordability, and greater efficiency in resource use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗